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When it arrives the models are showing storm surge of 10-12 ft with 40 ft waves. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
When it arrives the models are showing storm surge of 10-12 ft with 40 ft waves. Quoted: Brother, you can't stop this thing- you can't keep it from doing what it is gonna do. There is nothing to gain from staying and you've got your life to lose. Try to imagine yourself drowning- getting tossed around helpless like a rag doll. Hold your breath as long as you can and imagine getting trapped under flood water that's up to the ceiling. There are people who died that way without having any say in the matter- you have a choice. You can avoid the possibility entirely. My advice: Start packing your most important stuff- don't wait til the last minute to bug out. Trust your gut and GTFO while you can. I have never in my life regretted evacuating for a hurricane- but I do know plenty of people who have stayed for one and vowed to never ride out another one. We Conservatives are teetering on the edge of a dying breed- while libtards breed like rabbits. We need every member that we can muster. Fran was different, according to my neighbors. I'm preparing for about a foot or two of water in my house. I will NOT be staying on the island after tonight. Whether or not I go to NorFL from here is still up in the air. |
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We rode out Irma and wished we had bugged out. Streets everywhere flooded, no electric, hot nights, cerfews, for a week for us, others had no power for 3 weeks; we were not in a flood plane and over 4 miles inland and 60 from landfall at Marco. If you stay, be ready for no medical services, no police, no power, no stores, and general suckage
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We rode out Irma and wished we had bugged out. Streets everywhere flooded, no electric, hot nights, cerfews, for a week for us, others had no power for 3 weeks; we were not in a flood plane and over 4 miles inland and 60 from landfall at Marco. If you stay, be ready for no medical services, no police, no power, no stores, and general suckage View Quote |
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We rode out Irma and wished we had bugged out. Streets everywhere flooded, no electric, hot nights, cerfews, for a week for us, others had no power for 3 weeks; we were not in a flood plane and over 4 miles inland and 60 from landfall at Marco. If you stay, be ready for no medical services, no police, no power, no stores, and general suckage View Quote |
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My parents are leaving New Bern in the morning to stay with some family in Cary, so I'm feeling better about that.
It's pouring rain near Greensboro right now, and I need to clean out our garage so we can fit both cars inside. Figures. Our ground is going to be nice and saturated right in time for Florence. |
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Whelp, it's official... my elderly relative who lives near the water in Oriental NC is staying. They said their front door is 18 ft above the water line and the storm surge will only be 12 ft so they're prepared "to be without power for a week". I hope that's all they have to deal with but I'm not confident. Even the city hall says the town is expecting to be without power for two or more weeks. Nothing more I can do at this point.
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My parents are leaving New Bern in the morning to stay with some family in Cary, so I'm feeling better about that. It's pouring rain near Greensboro right now, and I need to clean out our garage so we can fit both cars inside. Figures. Our ground is going to be nice and saturated right in time for Florence. View Quote |
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What HAM frequencies to listen in on? View Quote Depending on where you are, you might also be able to hear some of the 2m repeaters, especially if they are linked. Some of them may also be on Echolink until the internet gets flooded out. |
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I will NOT be staying on the island after tonight. Whether or not I go to NorFL from here is still up in the air. View Quote Florida may yet be in the crosshair of another hurricane before this season ends. We are preparing for that possibility. |
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I just want to point out that....
those directly in the main path or along the track of the eye wall, will be getting the max hurricane strength winds. assuming you were on the coast, you would get about 12-16 hours of tropical force winds gradually increasing to hurricane strength winds. then hurricane strength increasing to what ever the max speed florence has at that time, which could be above 130 mph at cat 4. then, a break as the eye wall passes, afterwhich the max winds again, coming from the opposite direction, decreasing gradually back down to hurricane strength of 74 mph. for about 20 hours. then another 12 -16 hours of hurricane to tropical strength winds. because it could take 2 days or more for the hurricane to move over you |
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@itgoesboom is he staying on the island? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Just talked to a friend who is just south of Surf City who has decided to stay. It's tough to evac, knowing I'm probably going to lose possessions, but it's better than losing my life. is he staying on the island? I think Topsail is screwed, I said goodbye to the house and stuff I couldnt pack and took pics, just in case. I pleaded with my neighbor to leave with us, he wants to keep the neighborhood safe from looters and fix damage as he can. I fear this may have been our last conversation, I pray not. |
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Those of you buying last minute preps might consider a recharge/power pack to charge your phone. I shared mine with my neighbors after Irma & they were able to recharge the battery pack via the USB their truck. Full charge on the battery would recharge an iphone seven times.
They run $20-30 on Prime & most big box stores have them. Best wishes for all of you. |
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A word on path models. A model is only right or wrong in hindsight. The hurricane doesn't even know about them. Looking at any one model doesn't tell you much. Look for consensus in the models and consistency from run to run. When most or all of the models come together, there's reasonable certainty the storm will go there. Divergent models, particularly when inconsistent from run to run, mean nobody knows what's going to happen, including the weatherman. If models are converging with each run and staying fairly true to the previous run's path, you can be more confident in the forecast path. If they diverge as runs are done or meander from run to run, react accordingly.
The models have been consistently divergent for Florence's path once she hits shore, which is usually the case for hurricanes. All but one of the primary forecast models, however, has moved her fairly fast to the northwest which is good news. No forecast has a hurricane going "right over" anything three days out. One model would, but one model, by itself doesn't mean anything. I hope this is helpful to some folks. |
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Those of you buying last minute preps might consider a recharge/power pack to charge your phone. I shared mine with my neighbors after Irma & they were able to recharge the battery pack via the USB their truck. Full charge on the battery would recharge an iphone seven times. They run $20-30 on Prime & most big box stores have them. Best wishes for all of you. View Quote |
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I pleaded with my neighbor to leave with us, he wants to keep the neighborhood safe from looters and fix damage as he can. View Quote At your next rest stop, give him a call and try to help him understand the possibility that there won't be any looters left alive to loot anything. Won't be any damage to "fix-" just piles of wood and rubble floating with the bodies. Try to drive home the reality of "Death by Hurricane" -because it doesn't seem to me that he has a realistic grasp of the damage this thing is capable of dealing out. Maybe guilt trip him in to meeting up with you at your bug-out location...tell him you will need the backup, shit is gonna get crazy and it would help if you two stuck together, watched each others' backs. It's not too late to leave- but by the time he realizes what is gonna happen, it might be. Every Hurricane we have evac'd for, I've known people who would laugh about it and go on about how awesome their Hurricane party is gonna be. A lot of these people have never even seen what it's like inside of a Hurricane...they had no idea. It was a bad feeling talking to them on the phone, listening to the fear in their voices as the weather gradually worsened at their location and zero-hour came. All the bravado and the misplaced giddiness thinking it was "SHTF time" slowly turned to abject fear- crying, screaming, praying, etc. They had no idea what they got themselves in to. Then came the lost comms and me wondering what their fate would be. I don't resent anyone who wants to take the chance with a storm like this...I feel absolute pity for what they will/could go through. I think the majority of people who make the willful decision to stay in the possible path of this storm are ignorant of the reality of the brutal power involved. They think it will be fun like a rollercoaster- and just don't comprehend what actually happens on the inside of a catastrophe. I would never put my 4 year old through that kind of experience or take that kind of risk. |
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I But I am shitting bricks about my inlaws. They are towards the coast (in a brick home FWIW), and I had assumed that they would come here. But they are planning on staying. How far inland would y'all advise GTFO if you are in the direct path of the storm? I know they've been though this type of stuff before, they are very practical and reasonable people, but I'm concerned for them. Am I being paranoid? View Quote |
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Quoted: The Continental Shelf has a lot to say about wave height around these parts. It mows long-period groundswell down and stretches it out in long closed-out lines. Max size here will be double-overhead and breaking a half a mile or possibly more out to sea. The real threat is the surge. During Irene, we had about an 11-foot surge; where my house is, about 300y from the beachfront, we're about seven feet above sea level and experienced no flooding. Fran was different, according to my neighbors. I'm preparing for about a foot or two of water in my house. I will NOT be staying on the island after tonight. Whether or not I go to NorFL from here is still up in the air. View Quote If you are still on the WB then me thinks you will have more than a foot or two of flooding.....my house is on a higher part of the island and Fran put the surge five feet up the lower level walls. You know my place....you were sipping a margarita when Britt did some improv body work on your Tacoma. Stay safe amigo...I don't need to tell you this one at Cat 4 ain't playing.....I'm just hoping the WB doesn't get wiped out. |
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The NE quadrant of a hurricane generally has the most destructive winds and hard onshore flow. Add to that maxing tides and storm-surge and you get a real shit sandwich. IF you must be in the path, you want to be on the south edge as the offshore flow will blow the water out to sea. This is why I'm waiting until the last minute to make a decision. If it takes a more northerly track above Wrightsville Beach, I'll probably hang tight in Wilmington. Otherwise, I'm TFO.
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Just remember; those barracks were built by the lowest bidder. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes |
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Quoted: Closed out lines? You sure that's not just an excuse for dodging the tube? If you are still on the WB then me thinks you will have more than a foot or two of flooding.....my house is on a higher part of the island and Fran put the surge five feet up the lower level walls. You know my place....you were sipping a margarita when Britt did some improv body work on your Tacoma. Stay safe amigo...I don't need to tell you this one at Cat 4 ain't playing.....I'm just hoping the WB doesn't get wiped out. View Quote |
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Fixing to leave New Bern to Knoxville. All of the guns are locked up on high ground with other valuables, pictures, etc. ammo fort stays. I figure ammo can get wet. Everything in the house has been moved at least 3 feet above the floor. Really valuable and irreplaceable stuff in the car and both tanks full.
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Hurricanes rapidly lose power when they make landfall. Hurricane force winds extend 60 miles from the center of Florence. HFWs are 75 mph or greater, are lower the further away from the center, and get dangerous at the Cat 3 level in general (at least w/ strict FL housing codes). Only near the center is it really bad, but who knows where it will pass? So, a direct hit with straight movement inland creates a Cat 3 danger zone significantly less than 60 miles inland. The bigger the storm, the larger the HFWindfield. A storm like this, I'd personally be very nervous 20 or less miles inland without consideration of other risk factors like flash flooding. I'd be nervous at 30-50 miles, and least nervous at 60. Cat 4 and 5 are just too dangerous to split hairs. View Quote |
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Ah St George the bridge is still there, minus the cow View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I know what you mean. It was bad. 1985 Flood https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/169573/C7832668-7A4B-491E-8E4C-33C15264F84D-668774.JPG |
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I pulled out today...My neighbor is also staying. Your friend wouldnt be a guy named Mike whos a retired Trooper would he? I think Topsail is screwed, I said goodbye to the house and stuff I couldnt pack and took pics, just in case. I pleaded with my neighbor to leave with us, he wants to keep the neighborhood safe from looters and fix damage as he can. I fear this may have been our last conversation, I pray not. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Just talked to a friend who is just south of Surf City who has decided to stay. It's tough to evac, knowing I'm probably going to lose possessions, but it's better than losing my life. is he staying on the island? I think Topsail is screwed, I said goodbye to the house and stuff I couldnt pack and took pics, just in case. I pleaded with my neighbor to leave with us, he wants to keep the neighborhood safe from looters and fix damage as he can. I fear this may have been our last conversation, I pray not. We just had a big family reunion on North Topsail Beach this summer. Ive been going down there for about a decade. Half of NTB is already severely eroded. This storm will probably take the rest of it. Sorry to hear about your home. Topsail is a great place. @samsgreen50 |
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Fixing to leave New Bern to Knoxville. All of the guns are locked up on high ground with other valuables, pictures, etc. ammo fort stays. I figure ammo can get wet. Everything in the house has been moved at least 3 feet above the floor. Really valuable and irreplaceable stuff in the car and both tanks full. View Quote |
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Yea I'm 2 hrs east of Asheville, we are gonna get drenched. Just got a new chainsaw, looks like it's gonna get one hell of a workout. Just tore apart the trampoline and pulled my water pump out of the pond. Got a few weeks of Preps and fuel etc, gonna be a good test of our SHTF plan. View Quote |
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Fixing to leave New Bern to Knoxville. All of the guns are locked up on high ground with other valuables, pictures, etc. ammo fort stays. I figure ammo can get wet. Everything in the house has been moved at least 3 feet above the floor. Really valuable and irreplaceable stuff in the car and both tanks full. View Quote |
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If those predictions hold true then Charleston-Myrtle Beach will get hammered. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I'll eat some crow here. I was convinced the models were done dancing, the normal variance at less than 4 days is less than 100 miles. GFS and Euro seem to have gone drinking together and changed plans. Both are projecting a close approach at Wilmington, then a rampage down the coast to south carolina before fully making landfall I guess its a good example of why making preps early is good as a late projection shift can leave you unexpectedly under the bullseye. https://store1.wxdisco.com/storage/uploads/monthly_2018_09/1549771468_ecmwf_florence1112ZH126.thumb.png.303731bff33287f42b607797857e4071.png https://store1.wxdisco.com/storage/uploads/monthly_2018_09/1899905017_gfs_florence1118z.thumb.png.4f22aaae69fa9328e82de54c52c0a694.png |
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A word on path models. A model is only right or wrong in hindsight. The hurricane doesn't even know about them. Looking at any one model doesn't tell you much. Look for consensus in the models and consistency from run to run. When most or all of the models come together, there's reasonable certainty the storm will go there. Divergent models, particularly when inconsistent from run to run, mean nobody knows what's going to happen, including the weatherman. If models are converging with each run and staying fairly true to the previous run's path, you can be more confident in the forecast path. If they diverge as runs are done or meander from run to run, react accordingly. The models have been consistently divergent for Florence's path once she hits shore, which is usually the case for hurricanes. All but one, however, has moved her fairly fast to the northwest which is good news. No forecast has a hurricane going "right over" anything three days out. One model would, but one model, by itself doesn't mean anything. I hope this is helpful to some folks. View Quote It's true, because only the real thing is the perfect model. |
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Groovy - not. We check in to a condo on the beach at Surfside Beach on the 22nd. If these predictions hold true we won't make the trip. My wife's cousin lives in Myrtle Beach and works at a big hotel. She is taking all her valuables and moving into the hotel. Parking her car on the 6th floor of the garage there. They are planning on hosting relief workers and need staff to tend to the needs of the workers. Really hope that turns ok OK for her. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I'll eat some crow here. I was convinced the models were done dancing, the normal variance at less than 4 days is less than 100 miles. GFS and Euro seem to have gone drinking together and changed plans. Both are projecting a close approach at Wilmington, then a rampage down the coast to south carolina before fully making landfall I guess its a good example of why making preps early is good as a late projection shift can leave you unexpectedly under the bullseye. https://store1.wxdisco.com/storage/uploads/monthly_2018_09/1549771468_ecmwf_florence1112ZH126.thumb.png.303731bff33287f42b607797857e4071.png https://store1.wxdisco.com/storage/uploads/monthly_2018_09/1899905017_gfs_florence1118z.thumb.png.4f22aaae69fa9328e82de54c52c0a694.png |
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I'm a Yankee preparing for my first hurricane in my first home (when I was in apartment I literally did not a give a single shit), So forgive me for any dumb questions, but from that I can tell I think we'll be okay here in Raleigh. Flooding (max that could happen is property damage from sheet flow surface runoff on my property, way outside of the flood plane), trees (none are around my house), and power outages (I have a genny and fuel, and propane, and charcoal, and wood, and tarps, and plenty of water) as the major threat to us here. I'm as prepped as I can be. But I am shitting bricks about my inlaws. They are towards the coast (in a brick home FWIW), and I had assumed that they would come here. But they are planning on staying. How far inland would y'all advise GTFO if you are in the direct path of the storm? I know they've been though this type of stuff before, they are very practical and reasonable people, but I'm concerned for them. Am I being paranoid? View Quote Because they have always happened and they aren't going away. Now with the population density on the coast people living right on the coast (there is a reason the coast wasn't developed until relatively recently) the entire eastern seaboard must evacuate a week before every hurricane. Or you can realize that you live where those people are going to escape the storm. There will probably be flooding. There will probably be electrical outages. Buy there won't be mass casualties. When I was a kid we regularly went without power. First living in the pa mountains during ice storms and floods, then in Florida when we moved there. The electricity goes out frequently where I live. I manage. I do more than manage, I have my own little party with my preps. For cripes sake, some of you people need to get a grip. People have been living in the aftermath of hurricanes for centuries. A lot of y'all don't even live on the coast and you're peeing your pants. You aren't going to die because the electricity goes out for awhile. If you live in a low lying area you don't have to bug out to Arizona, stay with a friend that doesn't live in a low lying area. Y'all wouldn't have lasted a year in rural PA in the 50's. We had floods EVERY YEAR! We also had ice storms every year!! We knew this and prepared the best we could. So wipe your face off with a hankie and act like a man. Except those that live on the coast. You need to go somewhere else. Or not. You roll the dice, you take your chances. I can't wait to see GD when tshtf. It will almost be as many tears as when Trump won. |
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We go to Topsail beach a lot. May have to find another place for a couple years.
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Major models have mostly shifted to the south. Not looking good at all for our place at Garden City.
I live between Columbia and Charlotte, and everything is still pretty normal here. People just going about life as usual. I stocked up on some non perishable foods after work today and will top off all my gas tanks tomorrow. I live on high ground, and it's been very dry here, so I'm not concerned about any flooding. Prepared to lose power for a few days, but I'm not terribly concerned about that. I think that with the major models shifting south this evening, people around here will wake up tomorrow, see updated cone maps, and start freaking out. |
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Major models have mostly shifted to the south. Not looking good at all for our place at Garden City. I live between Columbia and Charlotte, and everything is still pretty normal here. People just going about life as usual. I stocked up on some non perishable foods after work today and will top off all my gas tanks tomorrow. I live on high ground, and it's been very dry here, so I'm not concerned about any flooding. Prepared to lose power for a few days, but I'm not terribly concerned about that. I think that with the major models shifting south this evening, people around here will wake up tomorrow, see updated cone maps, and start freaking out. View Quote |
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The Charleston metro area is going to shit itself tomorrow morning. It's not going to be fun. View Quote |
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A word on path models. A model is only right or wrong in hindsight. The hurricane doesn't even know about them. Looking at any one model doesn't tell you much. Look for consensus in the models and consistency from run to run. When most or all of the models come together, there's reasonable certainty the storm will go there. Divergent models, particularly when inconsistent from run to run, mean nobody knows what's going to happen, including the weatherman. If models are converging with each run and staying fairly true to the previous run's path, you can be more confident in the forecast path. If they diverge as runs are done or meander from run to run, react accordingly. The models have been consistently divergent for Florence's path once she hits shore, which is usually the case for hurricanes. All but one of the primary forecast models, however, has moved her fairly fast to the northwest which is good news. No forecast has a hurricane going "right over" anything three days out. One model would, but one model, by itself doesn't mean anything. I hope this is helpful to some folks. View Quote Models showed Miami taking a direct hit from Irma, the eye was going to devastate downtown. It turned. Katrina was first supposed to hit Destin, she turned. Florence might very well turn to Charleston at the last minute. |
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Quoted: The Hurricane Watch Net is on 14.325 and 7.268 when it is active, which I read was starting 11:00am tomorrow. The ARFCOM ham forum has some other channels that they listen for other ARFCOMers on. The maritime mobile net is on 14.300 but I can't remember the times right now. Depending on where you are, you might also be able to hear some of the 2m repeaters, especially if they are linked. Some of them may also be on Echolink until the internet gets flooded out. View Quote |
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