This is pretty unnerving, it'll make Cat 5 today:

Stay safe hope you are all ok.

2 AM UPDATE

271
WTNT31 KNHC 120543
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 51A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL062018
200 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 69.5W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 69.5 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A motion toward
the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early Thursday.
Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday
into Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Florence will
move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the
Bahamas today, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is forecast through today.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the
U.S. coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week.  This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday.  Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NOTE: Last year they changed the Storm Surge prediction levels from 'above sea level at high tide' to now reflect the depth above ground at high tide!!

Don't underestimate the surge potential just because your property is X ft above high tide. If the surge map shows a color at your location that reflects the depth of the surge above the ground you're on.

Surge forecast:





NOTE: Last year they changed the Storm Surge prediction levels from 'above sea level at high tide' to now reflect the depth above ground level at high tide!!
Don't underestimate the surge potential just because your property is X ft above high tide.
If the surge map shows a color at your location that reflects the depth of the surge above the ground you're on.

As of 0500, looks like it is still shifting south.

Attached File

5:00am out...

current track has slowed, and shifted a more southward into south carolina, before moving westward again

expect that hurricane watches and warnings to continue to be extended southward, depending on the movement of florence

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Duck North
Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border.  The Hurricane
Watch for this area has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

I sure hope this turns out to be less intense than it's forcasted to be. That may not be the case however

That bitch.  They should all be given girls names because they never know what they want.

NHC is now predicting landfall over Myrtle Beach, SC. The 5 AM forecast really shows a bow southward shortly before landfall. Almost a 70 mle shift.

It now appears the eye won't even touch NC, but they will still get a huge effect from the storm.

Time will tell.

hurricane force winds start hitting the coast about 36 hours or so. models put it at about cat 4 or a cat 3 at that time.
people in the newly affected areas need to check your flood, surge, and inundation potential

Attached File

Bugged out from Southern Onslow Co.  this morning.  Two vics, four packs, seven fuzzballs.

Later than desired,but lack of sleep would've been more dangerous.

Figures that as soon as I rented a trailer and bought 300lbs of propane for the generator this bitch would go somewhere else. You're welcome Virginia.

The flooding potential is still pretty much unchanged.

It has changed dramatically for my area (Culpeper, VA). Wind and rain... projected... is half or more less.

Which is great news as this year we were approaching 4 ft of rain so far.

If you would slow down for 2 seconds, and read my actual post, you may realize nothing you said in your post resembles what I've said in mine.

I've never been through a hurricane as a home owner, so I never really thought about any of the "stuff I need to take care of my house" before. I am not concerned about anything but property damage here, with most of the threats mitigated. As for my supplies: I already had propane for brewing. I already had plywood for a project I am working on. I already had firewood for ourside fires. I already had charcoal for cooking out. I already had some food and water since I've always had an eye for self reliance. The only things I rushed out to buy were: a large tarp (in case shingles blow off, something I never had to think about before), and a generator (I'm worried about property damage if my sump pump stops working due to no power and we get 15" of rain). I am not worried about running anything else in my house. I don't even care about the food in my fridge. Like I said in my original post: I think we are fine here.

What I am concerned about is relatives by the coast. The sensationalist media is making it sound like everyone near the coast is going to die. I realize they blow things out of proportion, which is why I came here to ask other's experience. I am slightly concerned about flooding for them (though from what I can tell, property damage would be more likely than life threatening flooding. I do know that their neighbors down the street who live right next to a creek need to leave as their house has flooded in the past due to regular rain storms. Those people staying in that house could very likely die if they stayed). I don't know how bad wind damage is from various category hurricanes close to the coast, which is why I came here to ask.

Alternatively I guess you continue to read into what people are saying, pretend everyone is losing their minds, and feel smugly superior to the imaginary people that you have created.

Its really your call.

ETA::Oh yeah, and all this is based on the ORIGINAL predicted path. It is now further south, so things are looking better. Doesn't invalidate anything I said, or make your unhinged response any more connected with reality.

My hometown is going to get absolutely hammered.

Parents are leaving this morning headed to Greenville and my sister and her husband are in Charleston considering riding it out. Same with my cousins on Sullivans Island

The house I grew up in might not be there much longer.

People in Charleston and Columbia will start freaking out today. Riding this out on Sullivan's would be a really bad decision. Thinking about this storm wiping out the beachhouse that's been in our family for 50 years is making me sick. At this point I don't see it surviving.

Did someone from Iowa post " move then..."
Lol.

Lol the PR response was pretty good actually for being at the far end of an overwater logistics chain. It’s not Trump’s fault the PRs are lazy and their politicians are corrupt.

puerto rico is so corrupt that, some of the mayors of towns were refusing allowing u.s. fema supplies from being given out because the u.s. .mil people were going to be giving them out - that is, they wanted to be given the supplies, so they could sell, or otherwise control, who got supplies.

(info told to me by puerto ricans while I was there)

They’ve stopped sales of alcohol in Currituck County NC in the far NE part of the state.

Damn po’tader diggers

People are scum.

Even If I have to live out of my truck, my dog will be with me.

That’s just as bad. If you are going to abandon your pets at least cut them free so they can try to save themselves.

Hopefully those people drown in the storm.

This bitch is going to hit Florida when it is all said and done probably.  My damn animals have been going crazy all night.

So they can pack up?
Take them with you, or put them down.
Or I will.

Thanks

We went from 10-15 in of rain to 2-4. Still on ton but wow. Winds went way down as well. Great for us all things considered.

Leaving Savannah based on shifting track. I've been thru a dozen plus hurricanes. This one scares me more than any other.
Be safe everyone.

Smart.

The post above yours mentions people in.columbia freaking out.

This is what I was referring to. While Columbia and the other cities far inland will get rain, tornadoes, power outages, etc, it's nowhere near what happens right on the coast.

The logistics of evacuation every state in it's entirety on the Eastern seaboard is more dangerous than just staying where you are and learning to deal with it. For one thing it makes it more likely the coastal folks will have the resources to evacuate.

People are suggesting evacuation for inland folks just to avoid a power outage. These things have happened with no warning at all. For instance many years ago there was a tropical storm or something and horrific flooding where my friends live near Asheville NC. There were roads closed for months. The flooding was epic for some people.

This came out of nowhere. Now people are suggesting everyone leave entire states. If you could quantitate misery and compare the evacuation misery to what happens when there is a surprise storm misery which would be worse?

It's possible, and very likely, that inland people will survive just fine if they use common sense. The hysteria (for some) is worse than the storm.

This is exactly what I was talking about in my first post. Not people on the coast, not people that live on a river, but the people in places like raliegh and Columbia that are overreacting.

It's possible to go a few days without power. Even with kids. We did it when I was a kid many times. I guess because my parents acted like grown ups the fear didn't transfer to me.

Power could go out at any time for any reason, people should be prepared for that regardless of if there is a storm on the way.

I should post a pic of the time out street flooded. Water covered the mailbox. There was no hurricane, just a poorly timed rainstorm.

The media hysteria is making people panic in places where they should not be panicking. By the time they drive to New Mexico and back the power will be back on. The angst from sitting in traffic will be worse than sitting in your chair listening to a battery powered radio in front of your battery powered fan.

Yep, Toyota for instance on fires the pump when the engine starts to actually crank.

I drove all night from Carolina Beach to Atlanta only to see the forecast of it coming this way.  Oh, well, still better than where I was.

We provided support there...the response was as good as could be expected given storm strength and neglected state of infrastructure prior to the storm even hitting, combined with resources stretched thin from two previous storms.

If it weren’t for the dancing and fucking culture a whole lot more would have been accomplished. I’ve never witnessed the political leadership of an area play the victim card so hard and reek of incompetence as bad as down there. Afghans has less excuses.  There was no PR version of the Cajun navy helping out fellow citizens.

Not true. If you are going to say something as a fact, try to know the facts from personal experience. When you repeat something that someone told you, thats scuttlebutt.

They need to get themselves and their pets if they have any and get the heck out of there....... this storm isn’t anything to ride out

Here is my street after a 100 year rain. We didn't have this after Mathew, we had trees everywhere.

Attached File


Dumbass driving through it.
Attached File

Surf report on WB this morning is fucking dogshit. The cosmos is telling me something. Time to unass this AO and seek higher ground. Reckon that means the QC because FL will be cut off from NC from eastern GA and SC flooding. No better option seems available to me as of right now.

Still a good call.

Mogadishu East.

Yep. I've watched our area forecast go from 10-15", to 6-10", now to 2-4".

You guys on the SC coast on down in to GA who have been reading this, making preps...this thing looks like it's coming for you now. Get ready for the worst- hit the road if you can. GTFO from the coastal areas. Nobody really knows where this thing is gonna make landfall or go when it does.

Some of the wrong people have probably breathed a "sigh of relief" too early in the game. This always happens in Florida...it's too unpredictable- anyone who COULD be affected needs to behave as if they WILL be affected.

This is what throwing pearls looks like to a doomed soft nation.

Gitarmac could have made a living as a tough love motivational speaker 20 years ago. Can't make ad revenue now without fear and most people are 87x's dumber than even I suspect and they prove it every day.

We canceled plans to do stuff so we wouldn't be in the way of those evacuating from the coast and to free up limited resources (fuel) for those that need it more than we do. But....we saw this coming and stocked up last Friday.
My local Lowes (25 miles away) still had tons of plywood yesterday which tells me no one here is even thinking about this (45 miles inland and at one time in direct line of travel).

Prayers for those who are now waking up to an "oh shit" morning with even less time to prep or flee.

@RTUtah

Get the fuck out.

Just moved also to Columbia. used the richland county digital mapping and looked at the flood zone overlay  on the left side of the screen and the flood maps also.

http://www.richlandmaps.com/apps/dataviewer/?lat=34.04249&lon=-80.94915&zoom=13&base=roadmap&expanded=24966|53759|52088|18518|38669|39665&layers=33844|24029

also seems like there is aerial photos google earth and maps from the flood dates in the history.

The way these things shift this far from land I wouldn't get too comfortable.

Although I need it to track north again because I already took Friday off and was slightly mocked for it.

Good.

8am guidance is out.

Attached File

After Katrina, I was at a house that looked like a cake that had been sliced all the way down to the ground. 8" wide linear slice that landed a tree on the bed of the master bedroom. Luckily they had evacuated. Another one was a house that was shared by three little old ladies, reminded me of the golden girls. Oddly enough it was a flat roof design with stucco walls, almost reminiscent of an adobe house. In the middle of the piney woods, it was weird. There were 28 trees in various states of collapse on the house including one that I was able to walk up on to the roof with, it was about 3' across. That one had a branch that penetrated the living room through the ceiling down to within 2' of the floor, looked like a stalactite.

Pine trees in storms scare the shit out me and I'm glad they don't grow where I live.