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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:21:07 PM EDT
[#1]
The rumblings from some of the DC crowd tells me that without workers to fill all that leased office space, they just might be worried about a commercial real estate collapse and yet another banking debacle as those leases aren't being renewed.
You know.......the same exact government that told us that remote/work from home was a great thing for fighting the "Climate Change Existential Threat To All Mankind". Been waiting to see how this was going to play out.  |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:21:46 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Short term maybe. Long term, businesses who do that are putting themselves at a competitive disadvantage for talent. A competitor will be able to score top talent at a cost premium by offering remote work. Most people will take a significantly lower salary to live where they want. Early 2021 was the peak work from home with 37% of households reporting they had someone WFH. It has fallen to less than 26% and the RTO pace is picking up. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:25:34 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Urban areas (democrats) are losing their tax revenues ?? |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:29:56 PM EDT
[#4]
Both our jobs require us to be on site to truly work. I'm in manufacturing and she is fund raising so I have to be where the machines are and she has to be where the events are for us to get paid. There are jobs that are remote, her son has one and does everything via the internet. However, her and I can also work from home and have. She takes her laptop and IP desk phone home and plugs a cable into my router and connects the phone just as if she is at work, then jumps on Wi-fi for the laptop. I'm the IT Manager and completely control and setup my remote users so I know how to work from home (or what we always call W@H) but drive in everyday and rarely use it. At the sometime I also answer emails on weekends etc. so I am also working from home.
If you think about it, if more people went to work it would stimulate the economy. Kind of funny how Covid caused the shutdown by the Gov't and now the Gov't wants people to go back to work so we can get things going. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:30:08 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I will check this thread in a year if we get in a recession just to hear people complain about how they got axed because they wouldn't come in. A corporation would love to have a legit reason to fire people during a recession. Saves them a severance package during downsizing. This is why it pays to be exceedingly good at what you do. Nobody is irreplaceable, but some are harder than others. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:31:32 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I hope so. I want them to move back to where they came from. They can’t, if they moved to a rural area away from a city. They paid much more for their property than the local economy can support, and now the interest rates have tripled to 8%. Even if they don’t have a mortgage, they are going to lose 20-30% IF they can sell it to someone that has a non-local job, because the people that have local jobs and work for a living can’t afford it. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:32:59 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Companies in those cities that push too hard for RTO will create competitors who brace WFH. I’ve seen it happen in healthcare contracts I’ve had. Nurses care for patients form home? |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:33:48 PM EDT
[#8]
I also think that people in this thread are not talking about the same jobs.
The future of remote work for high skill / high knowledge jobs (like a lot of the IT roles mentioned already) is very different from Karen's clerical job reviewing loan closing documents from home. The former will remain in high demand (if anything moreso), giving employees significant leverage. They are also not transactional jobs - I don't clock in or out, nor am I expected to get X work done an hour. The latter is much easier to replace and has a much larger pool of workers available. Not to mention that low skills jobs doing repetitive work - remote or in office - are at a very high risk of being eliminated by automation over the coming years. Why have 100 Karens come back to the office when you can replace them with a small dev team to configure and maintain a system to review and validate those closing docs? |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:37:25 PM EDT
[#9]
I can usually tell when I talk to a customer service person who is at home. There is usually no background noise of dozens or hundreds of others talking. It is like talking to a friend on the phone.
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:38:01 PM EDT
[#10]
My brother is about to retire from a software company. He has worked for them for over 30 years. For twelve of those years, he worked at home. He was far more productive at home and proved it. With COVID they let employees work at home. Two years later the company called the employees back to the office. They told my brother he had to come back too. He told them, No. He was one of their most senior people. He explained the amount of worthless interruptions, and meetings interfered with his productivity and showed them he was the most productive employee they had. Why do you want me to be less productive? They looked at others and found most senior people were far more productive at home than at the office. The younger, less mature, employees needed more supervision to even be 70% as productive. They told him to attend one key meeting a week, the rest could be done over the internet as needed. He is still their most productive employee and retires on the last day of Dec.
I worked for a company remote for 25 years. I spent one week a year at the home office. The rest of the time I worked at home or traveled. About 30% of the time I traveled internationally. There were 45 of us who worked remotely in sales. A few were let go each year because they weren't cut out for that work environment. It is not for everyone. Some just don't have the maturity to cut it. For those who do thrive in it, it works very well. Just for security sake alone, I always refused to work in the city. It is like living and working in a prison to me. If I need to CCW, I'm working in the wrong place. If you love it, good luck. If you have a company with employees who can work at home and be more productive, let them. Why tie their hands and cripple productivity just to be a control freak? I've seen Elon's interviews and laughed. He is the classic controller yet he does not do it himself. He can't possibly sit in an office 8-12 hours a day, people and phone calls constantly interrupting and e-mails bombarding him all day and doing all that he does. Time mgt is a monster bitch if you can't get some solitude too. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:40:38 PM EDT
[#11]
Right MEOW!
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:41:17 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Who do you build relationships with? The chick at the front desk? Isnt everyone else at home? There is an old but very true saying, "Never dip your stick in your backyard." It catches up to you in the worst way. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:42:44 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Early 2021 was the peak work from home with 37% of households reporting they had someone WFH. It has fallen to less than 26% and the RTO pace is picking up. Post-pandemic, yes. Long term, the writing is on the wall. The pandemic was an outlier. As I said before, an employer that insists on this is going to put themselves at a competitive disadvantage. The market will eventually filter them out. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:43:40 PM EDT
[#14]
It’s going to be fun when CRE values aren’t there to support stocks or pension liabilities.
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:51:20 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Early 2021 was the peak work from home with 37% of households reporting they had someone WFH. It has fallen to less than 26% and the RTO pace is picking up. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Short term maybe. Long term, businesses who do that are putting themselves at a competitive disadvantage for talent. A competitor will be able to score top talent at a cost premium by offering remote work. Most people will take a significantly lower salary to live where they want. Early 2021 was the peak work from home with 37% of households reporting they had someone WFH. It has fallen to less than 26% and the RTO pace is picking up. You have to caveat that with the fact that many people went to WFH due to outside influences - Covid garbage. Lots of those jobs couldn't be effectively or done at all from home. People who required access to isolated servers and programs that basically got paid to sit at home. Any numbers coming out in the last couple and next few years are going to be skewed. There are millions of jobs that can be effectively done at home - with productive people. What you are also seeing is lots of middle managers who dont produce or dont manage to produce being highlighted with WFH. In the end it will balance out and WFH is and will be a legitimate thing that grows over time. Hell if you have spent time in any sizable company you will find that in most instances 80% of the work is done by 20% of the people. Most companies have a surplus of useless staff. Identifying and weeding those people out is never as easy as it seems. Remember - Productive people will always find a way to be productive, unproductive people will always find and excuse to be unproductive. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 5:55:35 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nurses care for patients form home? Some do. SIL does, my wife was considering it but thinks it would be too boring. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:01:25 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nurses care for patients form home? I learned on arfcom that you can communicate directly to your doctor's office via a web portal. Ask them questions about your health and prescriptions via text and they will respond. I would bet that at least some of them respond to that thing while not in the office. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:03:57 PM EDT
[#18]
So the blue cities have massively reduced their carbon footprint, which is what they all proclaim to want to do, and they are very unhappy about that?
Fucking communist hypocrites, figures, all that virtue signally to save the planet, goes out the window when the tax revenue goes down and the illegal immigrants shack up in all the shelters and contracted hotels. Fuckem. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:04:10 PM EDT
[#19]
I have tasted WFH and I am addicted. 2 hours of my day back, cheaper food, no fuel cost, no weird work sicknesses to catch, my own bathroom, etc, etc. Our company was more profitable when everyone was WFH with fewer expenses like toner, paper, supplies, electricity, gas, etc. We all have to get our work done. Most of my team works with people all over the country/world so it doesn't really matter where we sit.
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:13:05 PM EDT
[#20]
My wife is a state employee and her division announced recently that they are going to be making the division hybrid, and then slowly creeping towards fully remote for all roles not 100% necessary on site. She’s currently 1 day/week from home. They’re looking at 3 days WFH at some point 2024.
It all probably depends on job field and city. My job could be 100% remote, but our CEO doesn’t want us to WFH, despite her and my director being fully remote. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:14:59 PM EDT
[#21]
I haven’t seen my office since 2016.
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:18:51 PM EDT
[#22]
Follow THE SCIENCE.
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:19:10 PM EDT
[#23]
I live in a very rural area. A town of 800. I wish I had a remote job. I drive 45 minutes to work each way. However it pays well and has the best benefits you could ask for and I still get to live on my homestead. I can’t complain. I am hoping within the year I can get a remote job with same agency. Either way I can’t complain
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:19:17 PM EDT
[#24]
I am coming at this from a middle/upper management perspective in Information Technology for a multinational corporation that is based in New York City.
1) Older, more traditional C-levels like to see employees in the office. It's easier for them to talk to people in passing and have the proverbial water-cooler chat between meetings. It feels better and feels more appropriate to them. They are the ones running the company. 2) CEO's are getting immense political pressure from city, state and in some cases, from the WH, to bring people back to the office because it's resulting in an impending corporate real estate collapse or significant devaluation. Less workers that go into an office means less foot traffic for the shops in the area (lunch, coffee, shopping, etc), which means that those small businesses eventually go out of business... less tax revenue. AKA, the "Urban doom loop". 3) Corporate leadership bean-counters would prefer to leave remote work on the table because it means that they have a much larger talent pool available at a much broader range of salary. If I hire someone in NYC, I need to pay a good amount more in salary than someone with the same skills for the same job that lives in Iowa and does it remote. Personally, I worked remote (with travel every quarter or as needed) for a decade before the pandemic. I don't see WFH going away anytime soon, though there will be - and should be - a culling of those who are not productive enough while working from home, including managers who can't properly or efficiently lead a remote team. I see WFH going to a hybrid model; that seems to be the compromise that I see in my workplace. There are a lot of very good employees that have made it very clear that they will only work from home - and the business does not want to lose those employees. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:21:37 PM EDT
[#25]
Yes, by all means, I should drive 80 miles round trip to log in and work on AWS servers that are located all over creation.
 The problem isn't with working from home, it's with employee work ethic. And pulling everyone back in the office to fix it makes as much sense as banning guns to prevent crime. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:26:12 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Spoken like true senior management! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It’s already significantly down from what it once was. As metro areas put pressure on large corporations/threaten to remove tax breaks, more people will be going hybrid and then back to the office. Fortune 200 here, senior mgmt- I’ve heard the discussions. Here Spoken like true senior management! He is 100% correct. My company started pulling people back into the office in August. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:32:24 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yeah it is, in large part Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Remote work isn’t going anywhere. Yeah it is, in large part IMO it's never going to end. I do think employers are going to start modifying salaries to reflect the areas the remote workers live in. Oh, you live in rural TN with a REALLY low cost of living? We are lowering your salary Oh, you live in a very expensive area with a very high cost of living? Sorry, but this is the highest salary this position pays. Might we recommend you get a second job? |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:34:17 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My wife's firm just tried mandating 3 days/week and everyone told them to pound sand. It's not 2020 bad, but it will never go back to prepandemic levels. Foot traffic in Downtown Chicago is a fraction of what it used to be. No worries, Mayor/King Brandon Johnson has a remedy: Charge corps more in taxes. That will fix the reduction in sales tax revenue. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:40:02 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s already significantly down from what it once was. As metro areas put pressure on large corporations/threaten to remove tax breaks, more people will be going hybrid and then back to the office. Fortune 200 here, senior mgmt- I’ve heard the discussions. Here How do you square that with less-expensive off-shore employees working remote as time moves on? I'm told "Your competitors will do it and you'll be left holding the bag". |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:41:02 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Depends on work but for most part; folks are never going back in. We took survey; 90% said they'd quit. ALL the work we do can be done from anywhere and the single women w/children basically cannot afford the daycare, fuel, car, food, lunch and other expenses that come with going into an office. Its basically a salary onto its own. For a woman or even a family; the daycare savings alone are a salary. One female said its cheaper for her to stay at home and take care of kids - than to go to work. But working from home she oversees her two kids. ALL her work can be tracked every hour; so this aint govt work where you can move a mouse every 4 minues. We can track everything all day long and the work gets done. 98% would return to the office as mandated, and an insignificant will accelerate their job search thereafter. I've gone through it personally, and watched plenty of other companies do the same. The number of 100% remote roles is shrinking. I don't like it, but just being real. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:42:27 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Remote work isn’t going anywhere. Domestically? Ehhhhh. A lot of folks who are being laid off, would disagree. I do see quite a bit of domestic remote work being outsourced overseas......who could have seen that coming? I'm sure it varies by industry and role, no doubt. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:43:34 PM EDT
[#32]
No one here will read this or care - but they can fuck the hell off with that bullshit. Won't be wasting hours on the road behind low IQ bonehead drivers. Fuck that shit.
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:45:15 PM EDT
[#33]
We have many experts with institutional knowledge that can retire or leave when they want. If they mandate a return to the office we will lose at least a 1/4 of or employees and have trouble hiring any new employees.
With inflation new employees can't afford to drive into the office every day. Everyone lives 40-70 minutes away (with good traffic) from the office. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:47:58 PM EDT
[#34]
WFH since 2009. Software company. We are never going to an office. I see many more firms looking for CPAs for 100% remote work.
Sucker MCs should call me sire, I won't stop WFH til I retire. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:48:19 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I will check this thread in a year if we get in a recession just to hear people complain about how they got axed because they wouldn't come in. A corporation would love to have a legit reason to fire people during a recession. Saves them a severance package during downsizing. Some of the RTO planning is actually downsizing in disguise. They know some will quit rather then come back so this a good way to get ahead of the curve with voluntary separations. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:48:48 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If you want my production to decrease have me come back to the office.  What do you produce at home? |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:56:05 PM EDT
[#37]
It really depends on the field.
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Posted: 11/10/2023 7:04:16 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Not to mention structural tightening of the labor market. Boomers are retiring and Gen Z is smaller. The size of the boomer generation resulted in oversupply of labor for the past 30+ years. This is changing and will.be shifting the long term balance of power away from employers. Also factored in is the increased competition for high skill workers, especially in tech applications. I do software development in banking. Even regional banks need significant teams if in-house analysts, admins, and devs to configure and maintain their applications. Ten years ago, banks this size had a fraction of that as they still heavily used paper processes and lots of clerical positions instead of automation. It adds up to increased competition for workers who can build and maintain this stuff And for the inevitable 'they can just send the job to India!'.. LOL. I've seen it attempted with high skill (not help desk) jobs. Failed spectacularly each time. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I just don't know how you put that cat back in the bag. I have a friends that work from home since COVID pushed that. At their companies many work from home pretty much full time. Unless you are unlucky and your manager thinks its necessary to be in the office. Not to mention structural tightening of the labor market. Boomers are retiring and Gen Z is smaller. The size of the boomer generation resulted in oversupply of labor for the past 30+ years. This is changing and will.be shifting the long term balance of power away from employers. Also factored in is the increased competition for high skill workers, especially in tech applications. I do software development in banking. Even regional banks need significant teams if in-house analysts, admins, and devs to configure and maintain their applications. Ten years ago, banks this size had a fraction of that as they still heavily used paper processes and lots of clerical positions instead of automation. It adds up to increased competition for workers who can build and maintain this stuff And for the inevitable 'they can just send the job to India!'.. LOL. I've seen it attempted with high skill (not help desk) jobs. Failed spectacularly each time. How many back doors were found after that work was done? |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 7:15:49 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Do/Should WFH peeps worry their jobs turn into WFH peeps from overseas taking their jobs? I’m sure they can find a cheaper workforce of all you need is an internet connection. I work in a steel mill. We have some process automation and modelling people who haven't been to work in a couple years now. If they cannot see visually and sometimes even hear what the equipment is doing and what its doing to the product, then they cannot do their job effectively, and they haven't been doing it effectively. I dont care how the forces look, if you don't also look at the piece shape or surface you are rolling. They should have been let go. They can be replaced by someone without too much burden. If they have been doing their jobs, then everything should be set for processing parameters and controls right now. No unexpected excursions. Sadly the management too afraid to cut some of these people loose. Even to make an example with a few . We can cobble and wreck the rolling mill with you at home, or without you at all. So what exactly are you doing for the company? Go hire some indians for a fifth the price to work remotely. Its not a one size fits all thing like some of you think. And for govt jobs, 99% of the population would get along just fine if most/87% of those jobs were just completely eilimnated. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 7:22:45 PM EDT
[#40]
This is what all millennials think working from home is: a way to blend home with work life, with more emphasis with home life. Attention to the kids, play with the dog, leisurely break/meal times.
 And it's becoming apparent. Employers are not getting the bang for their buck. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 7:27:10 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This right here. I'm in software dev. I don't have to do my job in an office, especially when my physical office is 750 miles away. I like to visit from time to time and build relationships but day to day is done in my home office. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Urban areas (democrats) are losing their tax revenues This right here. I'm in software dev. I don't have to do my job in an office, especially when my physical office is 750 miles away. I like to visit from time to time and build relationships but day to day is done in my home office. Multi-National corp with customers all over the US. Even if I go into the office, there’s always someone on video, so if I’m there or not doesn’t matter. Yep get the part about team building, which can be done when the whole team is there. Turn office buildings into apartments or homeless shelters if the sanctuary cities want higher utilization. They can make more money by housing illegals anyhow. ETA We routinely have 11am EST presentations from India, UK and NZ. They adjust to the timeframe because that’s where the bulk of the workforce and customers are located. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 7:31:49 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This is what all millennials think working from home is: a way to blend home with work life, with more emphasis with home life. Attention to the kids, play with the dog, leisurely break/meal times. https://hosting.photobucket.com/images/q94/junker46/Screenshot_2023-11-10_9.34.00_AM.png And it's becoming apparent. Employers are not getting the bang for their buck. God help us if the workers might have some semblance of balance in their lives. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 7:32:51 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How many back doors were found after that work was done? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: I just don't know how you put that cat back in the bag. I have a friends that work from home since COVID pushed that. At their companies many work from home pretty much full time. Unless you are unlucky and your manager thinks its necessary to be in the office. Not to mention structural tightening of the labor market. Boomers are retiring and Gen Z is smaller. The size of the boomer generation resulted in oversupply of labor for the past 30+ years. This is changing and will.be shifting the long term balance of power away from employers. Also factored in is the increased competition for high skill workers, especially in tech applications. I do software development in banking. Even regional banks need significant teams if in-house analysts, admins, and devs to configure and maintain their applications. Ten years ago, banks this size had a fraction of that as they still heavily used paper processes and lots of clerical positions instead of automation. It adds up to increased competition for workers who can build and maintain this stuff And for the inevitable 'they can just send the job to India!'.. LOL. I've seen it attempted with high skill (not help desk) jobs. Failed spectacularly each time. How many back doors were found after that work was done? First time I was a help desk peon, and took a non-IT position elsewhere in the company. I declined to move back over for the cleanup when they tried rebuilding the onshore team. Second time I also wasn't around for the cleanup, they lost so many customers that they sold off that entire business unit. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 7:40:36 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Some of the RTO planning is actually downsizing in disguise. They know some will quit rather then come back so this a good way to get ahead of the curve with voluntary separations. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I will check this thread in a year if we get in a recession just to hear people complain about how they got axed because they wouldn't come in. A corporation would love to have a legit reason to fire people during a recession. Saves them a severance package during downsizing. Some of the RTO planning is actually downsizing in disguise. They know some will quit rather then come back so this a good way to get ahead of the curve with voluntary separations. The also avoid labor issues with the government because it isn’t a layoff. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 7:43:16 PM EDT
[#45]
Human nature is irrepressible , and most humans are by nature complacent and lazy as fuck.
This was entirely predictable. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 7:44:40 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Theft of service has to end You pay them to a job not monopolize their time. If the job is done for the specified wage, the worker has no loyalty to go above and beyond... ...because lets face it, thats exactly what the employer wants. They want not only their time, but any little extra they can squeeze out of you while reducing manpower. Oh look, amazon. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 8:20:34 PM EDT
[#47]
Man, it really galls some people that some types of workers don't have to leave home. Good tech workers quite often have standing offers on the table, or can land one quickly. RTO will simply guarantee you end up with all of the shitty employees nobody else wanted to hire. RIF of all your best and keeping the worst is a bad idea.
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Posted: 11/10/2023 8:40:04 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yep, For now They are all slowly bringing people back in. Laugh all you want but you hear it every day of companies telling people to come to work. I know it sucks but its happening Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Remote work isn’t going anywhere. It is going to be so thinned out it will almost be nonexistent  There are publicly traded companies that are 100% remote. Yep, For now They are all slowly bringing people back in. Laugh all you want but you hear it every day of companies telling people to come to work. I know it sucks but its happening Come back to what? We’ve never had offices. We’re not opening them all over the world for 9 figures. This is partly my decision. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 8:53:26 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Man, it really galls some people that some types of workers don't have to leave home. Good tech workers quite often have standing offers on the table, or can land one quickly. RTO will simply guarantee you end up with all of the shitty employees nobody else wanted to hire. RIF of all your best and keeping the worst is a bad idea. Nope. Tech jobs have become scarce in a blink, and wfh tech has become non-existent. Mostly we now see bait and switch "hybrid" offers that are turning out to be one day a week wfh or less. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 9:14:36 PM EDT
[#50]
CNBC
 Who actually watches/listens to these ID10Ts anymore  I've worked from home for literally decades and will continue to do so until I retire. Decades of experience with very broad and deep skillset I have. |
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