QFT

tl/dr warning, and ZFG if you were in the "slow readers group" past 3rd grade.

I started a 100% WFH job 4 years ago, just 6 months before Covid hit. And I just accepted a new offer this past Friday on another 100% WFH job with a 30% bump in pay. Granted, that past 3 years of inflation makes that a bit of a pyrrhic victory, but ya gotta do what you gotta do.

There may well be some short-term reversals in WFH over the various cities and a sympathetic fed.gov in a panic at their tax bases being gutted, and they play whatever cards they have, like those that cite news stories of tax breaks and incentives, especially existing ones being leveraged against employers to force RTO.

Unfortunately, for any city that has a significant tax base dependence on white-collar knowledge work office space tenants and commuting, they're fucked. Long-term, it simply won't work.

Even the most hardball Mafia-style protection racket steps possible by state & municipal governments, even with iron-clad tax breaks, TIF's, or anything else to hold over employers, it's only going to slow a fraction of the bleeding. And only temporarily.

Follow the money, always.

Ultimately, all businesses that can will follow WFH because it's far cheaper. Employees will accept lower pay, or at least less aggressive increases, because they don't need to commute, they might need only one car for their family, or they can even move somewhere with a lower cost of living, or apply for the job from the cheaper place in which they already live.

A WFH company has no, or at least far less: rent, HVAC bill, coffee service, foam cups, napkins, cafeteria, doorman/security guard, janitors, toilet paper, soap, parking lot, winter snow plowing, grounds/landscaping, or electric bill...

And companies that are currently "stuck" with a tax break/incentive agreement, big mortgage, a lease, or even an entire skyscraper they have 100% paid off... they WILL eventually leave when they can. And besides the handcuffs  being far from all the employers, or even half, the municipal governments are really only stalling 5-10 years, tops.

Meanwhile, all the employers with no handcuffs have already left, creating an unsustainable commercial office lease vacancy rate, and a discounted rent and real estate spiral no matter what happens.

And the "Just turn it all into apartments!"-ideas? For who, exactly? And even if the renters existed, which they won't, because of WFH jobs having left the city, converting an office building to residential is an expensive shitshow. And almost always borderline unprofitable.

And companies that staunchly fight for RTO, some will actually go tits-up. Employees that can  will bail for WFH opportunities. Fewer new-hire candidates will apply for RTO jobs. They'll get lousier employees with lower quality work output, talent, & skills, when or where that matters.

Some employers will bend over and take the tax hits, break leases snd pay penalties, or do whatever else to get WFH going before they circle the drain. And municipal & state governments cannot get taxes from a corpse in bankruptcy.

And besides loss of property taxes, the municipalities & states will be losing on road, bridge, & tunnel tolls. Speeding, parking, & traffic tickets. Train & bus fares. Taxi shields/licenses. Hotdog vendor cart permits... it goes on and on.

And to a large degree, the city will not physically shrink, even if WFH & generational decline pulls residents out of the city in addition to employers. There's the same streets, bridges, buildings, and miles of municipal infrastructure, even if there's less people using it & tax income to support it.

If Police, EMS, Fire, & city DPW can't handle it, because of budget austerity, then even more flee the city, at least those that can. And those who can't, I'm sure everyone understands full well they will not behave better because of all this.

Suddenly, we're looking at multiple "Detroits" with significant open greenspace & brown fields.

The Democrats/Left, who were enjoying the slow progression of ever more urban density, gaining them de-facto state legislature and Congressional/Electoral College control over states, like how NYC dominates NYS, Chicago lords over Illinois, and L.A. & S.F. own California...

They're going to absolutely lose their shit. Either at simply seeing their advantageous trend halted, or any of it actually reversed.

Remember, it's not just the math of: "Blue Americans moving to Red counties and ruining them." at work here. The remaining Blue "productive class" moving outwards can and does up the population and Census apportionment of Red districts, that still will remain Red too.

The Racial Social-Justice whining, eventually SCREAMING over all of this hasn't even begun to hit yet. What amounts to "White-Flight Part II" but now they don't even commute into downtown for their 9-5 job M-F anymore... we're going to see some crazy shit in the coming decade.

We'll see more and more overt demands for suburbs & rural areas to simply "pay up" in various ways. And that's going to get interesting, especially if the demographic moves from WFH & generational decline throw more State legislatures & Congress Red through Census/redistricting, and they refuse to hand over extra money.

Some nominally Blue/Lefty cities might do a 180° and stomp hard on "urban crime" desperately trying to woo economic activity back, leaving BLM & Soros-funded DA's with heads spinning, and in the dust. I mean, we all KNOW the Left is really good at the "cattle car stuff" when they get overly excited. Getting the big-city "School to Prison Pipeline" restarted, and working 3 shifts 24/7 is peanuts in comparison.

And the debate over WFH productivity?

Those who claim their employer's productivity stayed level, or even improved vs. those who show problems with WFH people not working, sleeping, binging Netflix, spanking the monkey, or not even being home, out shopping or whatever?

And then the pro-WFH person counters how the RTO folks often get bupkis accomplished in the office, because they spend all day at the "smokers door," the Water Cooler, the bathroom w/smartphone, gabbing at their work-buddie's desk about sports, or off at a 1.75 hour offsite lunch... round and round that debate goes.

That's all irrelevant in the long run.

Employers will eventually figure this out.

Culture, management techniques, metrics, deliverables, enforcement, whatever it is, they'll do it. Or, they'll fail, and eventually a competitor that figured it out will take over. And, there's going to be tons of solutions, some elegant & inspired, some will be brutal micromanagement technological monitoring nightmares. Which will all eventually work itself out as well.

As the new techniques, styles, and tech, whatever the "secret sauce" is... it will still be a damn sight cheaper than renting a skyscraper.

It will not be immediately, but for any business that can function as WFH... WFH will "win" eventually.