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Link Posted: 8/19/2024 3:06:37 AM EDT
[#1]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By zoinks:
I know Carmel is wild about this ship, but it keeps reminding me of those flying carriers in the sky from the comics and the Japanese anime. It's a big bitch, though, that's for sure.


There are two paragraphs that are far more interesting than the story as a whole:
This is a huge implication for getting the design parameters and technical specifications from spying or just outright purchasing the information.

This bit pretty much speaks for itself. This Nation destroyed its own industrial capability to pursue an agenda of what exactly? Protecting a Yew tree on the Oregon Coast, a small fish in a Delta, a 1.25 inch lizard that's pretty much food for anything that's 2 inches in size? On the other hand, we have wind mills that knock birds out of the sky at an impressive rate and solar projects that can heat up their bodies really quickly almost like a microwave oven can. Amazing! But, I digress!!! Back to work.

View Quote

I only put stock in the 076 because China pins its goals and plans on it. Whether it like anything else China has is a piece of shit or actually will perform is unknown but supposedly China wants 8 type 075 and 4 type 076 for Taiwan invasion. They only have like 4 or 5 type 075 leaving them stuck with civilian ships or more aircraft for paratroopers if they don’t want to wait much longer to finish building these ships. Of course the longer they wanted the more time we have to get more ship sinking missiles produced even with flat to negative defense budgets although the Mideast could suck up shit we need in addition to Ukraine.
Link Posted: 8/19/2024 5:31:42 AM EDT
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:

I only put stock in the 076 because China pins its goals and plans on it. Whether it like anything else China has is a piece of shit or actually will perform is unknown but supposedly China wants 8 type 075 and 4 type 076 for Taiwan invasion. They only have like 4 or 5 type 075 leaving them stuck with civilian ships or more aircraft for paratroopers if they don’t want to wait much longer to finish building these ships. Of course the longer they wanted the more time we have to get more ship sinking missiles produced even with flat to negative defense budgets although the Mideast could suck up shit we need in addition to Ukraine.
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Their L type shipping is not really being built for the invasion of Taiwan but instead they plan on doing something like MEU/ARGs to look after their overseas interests
Link Posted: 8/19/2024 6:07:40 AM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#3]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By R0N:

Their L type shipping is not really being built for the invasion of Taiwan but instead they plan on doing something like MEU/ARGs to look after their overseas interests
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I realize there’s been an ongoing debate on what the Chinese intend to use them for but I doubt they would engage anywhere outside of the Bay of Bengal against India or the South China Sea and East China Sea but of course I could be wrong

I’ve read the relevant .mil products which do not mention Taiwan or caution against assuming these ships are specifically intended for Taiwan

https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1022&context=cmsi-maritime-reports



https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2021/6/25/china-building-formidable-amphibious-fleet





https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF



Link Posted: 8/19/2024 11:29:03 PM EDT
[#5]
My Brother! That's a lot of real estate to prove a point and one well taken!!!

Have a Chimay!!     Sit back!! Maybe Kamala will say some sentences tonight! Live!
Attachment Attached File

There is no Beer in Heaven; that's why we drink it here!!!

The only thing I can add to this conversation is that I don't think even the PLA has thought out what the type 076 utilization will be.

It's a big bitch!! And what does one do with an impractical big bitch? One sends it to places where it will really impress the hell out of the natives because they have nothing to defend themselves from it. That's it's true value. If you can defend against and defeat the ship, it's just a big juicy target. If you can't, it might as well be God's wrath coming for you.

As to what the Chinese are thinking they'll be doing with it is anyone's guess. Waiting for the planned numbers will take time, and time is not on Xi's side; it's on the CCP's side, but not Xi's. Kamala is going to talk, and it will be recorded, and it will cause her not to be elected...maybe. You can never underestimate stupid people.

On the other hand, while the Taiwanese indiginous weapons programs are starting, we have only their word their starting now. It might be they've been started before hand. How long would you sit quietly waiting for the US to send weapons you've bought, but actual production has been sent to the Ukraine? Especially with the very survival of your Nation at stake?

I don't think Xi is going to make Hitler's mistake of waiting for "the full number of Panther tanks to be delivered before he started the Battle of Kursk," unless Xi is also a drug addict and suffering from tertiary syphilis.

You remember that one article you posted a while ago about the amphib exercises the PLANLBGTQ+AAF was doing using the technique of beaching themselves? Imagine a type 076 doing that and then being a ready made air base? In the big photo we're all familar with, we see the Type 076 hull and two constructions of what I think might be other hulls for other ships. I couldn't figure it out. But that plot of land is huge, and that ship yard is huge, and the Chinese are ambitious. To use something as big as a Type 076, you will need ocean going dredgers that can prepare an underwater surface and build a sand bar or two for defensive purposes, and then remove it all when it's time to leave.

Beer, Gentelmen. Never question it's power!!
Link Posted: 8/19/2024 11:31:34 PM EDT
[#6]
Score Card!!!
Taiwan tracks 11 Chinese naval vessels, 5 military aircraft
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   The Ministry of National Defense (MND) tracked 11 Chinese naval vessels and five military aircraft around Taiwan between 6 a.m. on Monday (Aug. 19) and 6 a.m. on Tuesday.

Of the five People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, one crossed the Taiwan Strait median line in the nation's northern air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to the MND.
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Attachment Attached File

Same ol' thing! It's either the lull in the Storm or jet engine replacement time. Wish we had more information.
So far this month, Taiwan has tracked PLA aircraft 299 times and Chinese ships 185 times.
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Link Posted: 8/19/2024 11:44:49 PM EDT
[#7]
Two related stories dealing with the PLAN putting a further squeeze on Taiwan territory by encroaching on sea limits like the Chinese  have with sending civilian flights over the median line.
China martime patrols aimed at turning Taiwan Strait into 'inland sea': Scholars

TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   Taiwanese scholars warn that the maritime patrol and law enforcement operation conducted by China over the weekend included the "Taiwan Shoal" and may represent Beijing's efforts to turn the Taiwan Strait into a "quasi-inland sea."

On Saturday and Sunday (Aug. 17-18), China's Fujian Maritime Safety Administration and the East China Sea Rescue Bureau conducted the "2024 Taiwan Strait maritime patrol and law enforcement operation," announced Beijing's state-run People's Daily on Monday (Aug. 19). Taiwanese scholars assessed that in this operation, Beijing's claim to include the "Taiwan Shoal" (    ) as part of its patrol area could indirectly expand its jurisdiction to the median line of the Taiwan Strait, aiming to eliminate the jurisdictional gap in the strait, according to CNA.
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After the Kinmen speedboat incident in February, China announced regular "law enforcement patrols" in the waters near Kinmen. Although the incident concluded at the end of July, regular patrols by China have not ceased. Taking advantage of the end of the fishing moratorium and the start of the fishing season, China then claimed to conduct "law enforcement patrols" in the Taiwan Strait.
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Scholar number 1:
Su Tzu-yun (   ), director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told CNA that while the operation was originally intended for maritime transportation safety, Beijing included the "Taiwan Shoal," incorporating the waters near Penghu into its patrol range. This could indirectly expand China's jurisdiction to the median line of the Taiwan Strait, turning the Taiwan Strait into a "quasi-internal sea."

According to maritime law, the Taiwan Strait cannot be considered an internal sea, said Su. By using this "salami-slicing" tactic, Su said Beijing aims to assert jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait, indirectly eroding Taiwan's sovereignty, and warned that the frequency and scope of such actions could increase.
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Scholar number 2:
Chieh Chung (  ), an associate research fellow at the National Policy Foundation in Taipei, told CNA that the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) actions reflect the view that "we are the local government" and therefore have no authority to enact laws governing the traffic in the Taiwan Strait. "On one hand, the CCP aims to eliminate gaps in its jurisdiction; on the other hand, it is denying our regulations through its actions," said Chieh.

Chieh pointed out that since June 2022, China has been orchestrating a legal campaign in the Taiwan Strait with the intent to gain control over most of the waterway. This includes lifting restrictions and prohibitions on waters during the February Kinmen incident.

Subsequently, the Da Jin Man No. 88 (   88 ) incident eliminated special treatment previously afforded to Taiwanese citizens, signaling that Taiwanese fishermen should be treated the same as their Chinese counterparts. This gradual approach is intended to establish a de facto exercise of jurisdiction in the Taiwan Strait, and even to the east of the median line, said Chieh.
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PRC's description:
China's operation over the weekend involved two China Maritime Safety Administration ships, the Haixun 06 and Haixun 0802, and one rescue vessel, the Donghaijiu 115. The patrols lasted 30 hours and 30 minutes, covering 764 km (413 NM).

The main tasks included patrolling navigation routes in the central Taiwan Strait, implementing maritime traffic control, and inspecting passing vessels.
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Taiwan's description:
The Coast Guard Administration (CGA) on Monday (Aug. 19) reported that the three ships briefly crossed the median line by 5.9 km at 12:25 p.m. on Sunday but immediately sailed back toward Chinese waters. The ships did not enter Taiwan's restricted waters, and their movements were monitored by Taiwan's armed forces, according to the CGA.
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Second related story:
Taiwan lawmaker condemns Chinese fishing vessel incursions
(This is the part that will cost Taiwan the most; disruptions in harvesting fish!)
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   China's fishing vessel incursions increase Taiwanese aversion to China, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) caucus leader Wu Szu-yao (   ) said on Monday (Aug. 19), following the sinking of the Minlongyu 60877.

The Chinese fishing boat sank 12 kilometers off the coast of Kinmen on Saturday (Aug. 17) after a collision with an unspecified ship, CNA reported. Of the seven crew members, four were rescued, and three remain missing. Taiwan's Coast Guard and Chinese authorities collaborated in the search and rescue efforts.

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We covered this on the page before I think.

Later that day, the Chinese coast guard dispatched two patrol ships and one rescue vessel to patrol the Taiwan Strait. According to Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration, the three vessels briefly crossed the median line before heading back toward China. They did not enter Taiwan's restricted waters, and their movements were monitored by the Taiwanese military.

Wu said at a press conference that Taiwan's goodwill was met with hostility and such actions only heightened resentment towards China among the Taiwanese. She urged China to exercise restraint and avoid taking advantage of Taiwan's kindness.
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The incident follows the capsizing of a Chinese speedboat off the coast of Kinmen in February, killing two Chinese nationals. The boat crossed into Kinmen's waters and attempted to flee from Taiwan's Coast Guard vessels.
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At least they've stopped calling it a fishing boat and the passengers fishermen. I found that remarkably annoying.
Link Posted: 8/19/2024 11:51:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By zoinks:
My Brother! That's a lot of real estate to prove a point and one well taken!!!

Have a Chimay!!     Sit back!! Maybe Kamala will say some sentences tonight! Live!
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/1737/Chimay_Red_png-3299314.JPG
There is no Beer in Heaven; that's why we drink it here!!!

The only thing I can add to this conversation is that I don't think even the PLA has thought out what the type 076 utilization will be.

It's a big bitch!! And what does one do with an impractical big bitch? One sends it to places where it will really impress the hell out of the natives because they have nothing to defend themselves from it. That's it's true value. If you can defend against and defeat the ship, it's just a big juicy target. If you can't, it might as well be God's wrath coming for you.

As to what the Chinese are thinking they'll be doing with it is anyone's guess. Waiting for the planned numbers will take time, and time is not on Xi's side; it's on the CCP's side, but not Xi's. Kamala is going to talk, and it will be recorded, and it will cause her not to be elected...maybe. You can never underestimate stupid people.

On the other hand, while the Taiwanese indiginous weapons programs are starting, we have only their word their starting now. It might be they've been started before hand. How long would you sit quietly waiting for the US to send weapons you've bought, but actual production has been sent to the Ukraine? Especially with the very survival of your Nation at stake?

I don't think Xi is going to make Hitler's mistake of waiting for "the full number of Panther tanks to be delivered before he started the Battle of Kursk," unless Xi is also a drug addict and suffering from tertiary syphilis.

You remember that one article you posted a while ago about the amphib exercises the PLANLBGTQ+AAF was doing using the technique of beaching themselves? Imagine a type 076 doing that and then being a ready made air base? In the big photo we're all familar with, we see the Type 076 hull and two constructions of what I think might be other hulls for other ships. I couldn't figure it out. But that plot of land is huge, and that ship yard is huge, and the Chinese are ambitious. To use something as big as a Type 076, you will need ocean going dredgers that can prepare an underwater surface and build a sand bar or two for defensive purposes, and then remove it all when it's time to leave.

Beer, Gentelmen. Never question it's power!!
View Quote

Yeah, I understand the difference between my personal opinion and DOD reports on the subject. But I laid out why I came to my personal opinion which differs from DOD.

Namely, Xi Jinping, his Admirals, Generals and the state media all laser focused on Taiwan.

The ships would probably be fine for a naval war with India in the Bay of Bengal or Vietnam or show boating the Belt and Road ports but ultimately Taiwan is the #1 goal of China therefore I conclude they are for Taiwan.


As for numbers, I came to the quantity based off China’s press statements of wanting their 8 type 071 replaced with modern ships. I’m trying to recall where I read in Chinese media that the defense ministry wanted 4 type 076 at a minimum and why, I’m on the road without access to my computer files. In the articles I posted above the statement is “as many as to be determined in the future” but they’d be lucky to build 4 by 2027 anyway and again Xi Jinping is running out of time especially with their economy, a potential military build up in Japan and all the other factors previously listed.
Link Posted: 8/19/2024 11:58:45 PM EDT
[#9]
Link Posted: 8/20/2024 11:34:23 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Wineraner] [#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History


The article mentions it would've been ~22%, if they went by the previous method of calculating it.  This is what China is admittting to.  God only knows how bad it actually is.  

Tienanmen's demonstrations started with young people.  Xi would've been his mid 30s then, and likely saw how the shock of the protests threatened the Deng and others clique.  While those were mostly students, there are a lot more young people than that caste, and if they both cannot find a job, nor store their wealth without it evaporating, that sounds like widespread civil discontent on the horizon.  Xi sent tanks into Shanghai under cover of Covid restrictions, which incidentally also tamped down other internal pressures.  I wonder what the excuse will be this year or the next?

All of which is to say, I also don't think the Taiwan issue has until 2027 to be resolved.

Kind of pleasantly surprised that China still hasn't managed to steal, or had it sold to them, the tech behind the F-35.
Link Posted: 8/20/2024 3:34:46 PM EDT
[#11]
Link Posted: 8/20/2024 4:48:20 PM EDT
[#12]
Link Posted: 8/20/2024 4:56:57 PM EDT
[#13]
Australia is the only one from this list not under China orbit https://www.southerncrossgold.com.au/antimony


Link Posted: 8/20/2024 5:56:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: GoldenMead] [#14]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History


They keep restricting more and more critical minerals. It’s creating shortages here. They can’t have us having a full inventory before war kicks off.

Edit:  spelling lol
Link Posted: 8/20/2024 6:08:40 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GoldenMead:


They keep restricting more and more critical minerals. It’s creating shortages here. They can have us having a full inventory before war kicks off.
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From Covid medical supplies to this year it should have been a pick up the pace warning to the USA

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-export-curbs-choke-off-shipments-gallium-germanium-second-month-2023-10-20/

Link Posted: 8/20/2024 11:28:37 PM EDT
[Last Edit: GoldenMead] [#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:

From Covid medical supplies to this year it should have been a pick up the pace warning to the USA

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-export-curbs-choke-off-shipments-gallium-germanium-second-month-2023-10-20/

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_9654-3299836.jpg
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CHINA TO LIMIT ANTIMONY EXPORTS IN LATEST CRITICAL MINERAL CURBS

https://me.smenet.org/webContent.cfm?context=1&webarticleid=4831

China refines most of the rare earth minerals. The US needs to start doing it here once we find sources of them other than China.  Probably won’t happen with the current state of the EPA and current government.
Link Posted: 8/20/2024 11:42:34 PM EDT
[#17]
Gentlemen,  I will have to catch up tomorrow as I spent most of the day in the VA Palo Alto ER. Pain meds! They work, but now I have a headache!!!! :)

Score Card!!
Taiwan tracks 11 Chinese military aircraft, 8 naval ships
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   The Ministry of National Defense (MND) tracked 11 Chinese military aircraft and eight naval vessels around Taiwan between 6 a.m. on Tuesday (Aug. 20) and 6 a.m. on Wednesday.

Of the 11 People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, seven crossed the Taiwan Strait median line in the nation's northern and eastern air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to the MND.
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Attachment Attached File

Another reason occured to me today as to why it's been so quiet, relatively speaking, in the South Sea and the Middle East and in the Ukraine: The Democratic National Convention is going on. Where is our Iranian vengence attack against Israel? Where is our Russian counter-attack in the Ukraine? Where are the hordes of PLAAF aircraft playing fuck-fuck games? They're all watching the convention on CNN.
So far this month, Taiwan has tracked PLA aircraft 310 times and Chinese ships 193 times.
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Link Posted: 8/20/2024 11:48:52 PM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By zoinks:
Gentlemen,  I will have to catch up tomorrow as I spent most of the day in the VA Palo Alto ER. Pain meds! They work, but now I have a headache!!!! :)
Another reason occured to me today as to why it's been so quiet, relatively speaking, in the South Sea and the Middle East and in the Ukraine: The Democratic National Convention is going on. Where is our Iranian vengence attack against Israel? Where is our Russian counter-attack in the Ukraine? Where are the hordes of PLAAF aircraft playing fuck-fuck games? They're all watching the convention on CNN.
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Zionks! Get well! We need you healthy!
Link Posted: 8/20/2024 11:51:36 PM EDT
[#19]
In Further defense news, we have two more stories:
Taiwan Air Force holds live-fire drill simulating enemy air attack
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   The Air Force's Air Defense and Missile Command fired Patriot and Sky Bow missiles during a simulated enemy air attack early Tuesday morning (Aug. 20).

The exercise was conducted at Jiupeng military base in Pingtung County, CNA reported. Target drones were set up approximately 30 kilometers off Taiwan's eastern coast. Troops fired two PAC-II missiles and one Sky Bow III missile and hit all the drones.
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Colonel Kao Shu-li (   ), head of the command's 794th Brigade and spokesperson for the exercise, explained that the drill utilized a "decentralized command and control" model. This approach aims to enhance the effectiveness of live-fire training and verify the command-and-control capabilities of joint air defense operations, Kao said.
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The drill comes as President Lai Ching-te (   ) has pledged to commit to Taiwan's defense. By simultaneously boosting defense capabilities and arms procurement, Taiwan ensures its armed forces are well-equipped, Lai said at a recent military promotion event.

"Our goal is to build a formidable military force capable of safeguarding the nation's survival and development, and protecting the lives and property of our people," he said. Lai recently approved a 6% increase to Taiwan's defense budget in 2025, reaching NT$647 billion (US$19.80 billion).
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2 German naval ships could transit Taiwan Strait next month
Okay, okay, settle down!! I know what you're thinking...and you're correct.

TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   Two German naval vessels await orders from Berlin on whether they will navigate the Taiwan Strait next month.

In May, the German frigate F222 Baden-Wuerttemberg and the combat support ship Frankfurt am Main began a trip around the world and the German Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock indicated they may pass through the Taiwan Strait in the coming weeks. On Monday (Aug. 19), the task force's commander Rear Admiral Axel Schulz told Reuters the two vessels are awaiting orders to transit the strait.
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Schulz said that the decision has not yet been finalized and that weather will be a factor...
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Let me interrupt the Read Admiral, Turpitz-Leise, here. We're starting to get into the months of prime invasion weather and increase in sea depth. They ain't coming. They'll be a "schnittzel and pommes-frittes fest" in Samoa and they will be diverted. Just like the old days when the Kaiser knew how to throw a party!!!
"We are showing our flag here to demonstrate that we stand by our partners and friends, our commitment to the rules-based order, the peaceful solution of territorial conflicts, and free and secure shipping lanes," said Schulz.
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If the German naval ships enter the strait, it would be the first time since 2002. The US Navy routinely sends ships through the strait, while Australia and France dispatched vessels last year and Canada deployed a frigate in July.
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Link Posted: 8/20/2024 11:53:08 PM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GoldenMead:


Zionks! Get well! We need you healthy!
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GoldenMead:
Originally Posted By zoinks:
Gentlemen,  I will have to catch up tomorrow as I spent most of the day in the VA Palo Alto ER. Pain meds! They work, but now I have a headache!!!! :)
Another reason occured to me today as to why it's been so quiet, relatively speaking, in the South Sea and the Middle East and in the Ukraine: The Democratic National Convention is going on. Where is our Iranian vengence attack against Israel? Where is our Russian counter-attack in the Ukraine? Where are the hordes of PLAAF aircraft playing fuck-fuck games? They're all watching the convention on CNN.


Zionks! Get well! We need you healthy!
Thank you kindly, my Brother!!
Have a Chimay!!  Monks brew it, so you know "he" drinks it!
Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 8/21/2024 9:57:24 AM EDT
[#21]
Link Posted: 8/21/2024 10:22:23 AM EDT
[#22]
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 12:18:54 AM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History

HUNTSVILLE, Ala.   The Missile Defense Agency is preparing for a first test later this year of an initial capability designed to protect the strategic Pacific Island of Guam from air and missile threats, according to Air Force Lt. Gen. Heath Collins, the agency's director.

MDA is supplying a new radar   the AN/TPY-6   to support an elaborate air and missile defense architecture that is being pieced together over the coming years in order to protect Guam from increasingly complex threats emerging in China and North Korea.

"The first panel is on a boat on its way to Guam to support a planned flight experiment that we're doing in December," Collins told Defense News in an interview at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium.

Allow me to summarize the rest of the article. The Missile Defense Agency and the US Army are trying/working towards an integrated missile defense system being able to track and destroy threats at different altitudes and speeds.

Here's a longer summarization:
The agency has been, for over a decade, working with the services on a standard called the Joint Tactical Integrated Fire Control, or JTIFC, standard.. "That is a standard where we can take different tracking systems and connect those together to get to a true joint tracking architecture that is really going to be critical as we go forward," Collins said.

MDA is pushing forward to establish a combined command center on the island that will host all of the "major command and control systems in the missile defense business," Collins said, such as the Army's Integrated Battle Command System, the Navy's Aegis weapon system and the Aegis ground system being built for Guam, the Air Force's C2 system and the agency's Command Control Battle Management and Communications system, known as C2BMC.

Link Posted: 8/22/2024 12:21:26 AM EDT
[#24]
Score Card!
Taiwan tracks 8 Chinese military aircraft, 6 naval ships
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   The Ministry of National Defense (MND) tracked eight Chinese military aircraft and six naval vessels around Taiwan between 6 a.m. on Wednesday (Aug. 21) and 6 a.m. on Thursday.

Of the eight People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, three crossed the Taiwan Strait median line in the country's southwestern and eastern air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to the MND.
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Attachment Attached File

So far this month, Taiwan has tracked PLA aircraft 318 times and Chinese ships 199 times.
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The pattern is similar to the beginning of this year.
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 12:30:38 AM EDT
[#25]
Check this story out! First a little background,the previous premier was removed from power for corruption. It was a bit fishy as he wasn't pro-PRC, but apparently he's cool with their corruption?!?! There were enough witnesses that made any other point moot, so they get this new guy, and the new guy are the current President are not buddies and won't be. So, here we are!!!!!

Taiwan refutes strongly worded Vietnam-China statement
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   Chinese leader Xi Jinping (   ) and Vietnamese President To Lam issued a joint statement on Tuesday (Aug. 20), referring to Taiwan as "an integral part of China's territory," which Taiwan's foreign ministry refuted.  

Lam, who became Vietnam's new leader in May, arrived in Beijing on Sunday (Aug. 18) for a three-day meeting with Xi. The two countries signed 14 documents, including deals on Chinese loans, technology to develop Vietnam's infrastructure, Vietnamese imports to China, an international railway connecting the two countries, and strengthened security ties.

The most recent statement used the strongest language yet vis-a-vis Taiwan, aligning Vietnam closer with China. Vietnam and China have released three joint statements since 2022, with the statement this month being the closest in wording to the official stance on Taiwan of the Chinese Communist Party.

In the statement, Vietnam "reaffirms its adherence to the "one-China" policy. It also "supports the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and opposes any form of "independent Taiwan."
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In response, Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) issued a press release reiterating that Taiwan is a democratic country and that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other. The People's Republic of China has never ruled Taiwan, and only Taiwan's democratically elected government has the right to represent the Taiwanese people," MOFA added.

MOFA protested China's "repeated use of meetings with foreign leaders to make false remarks about Taiwan's sovereignty." It called on countries not to follow China's narratives that "downgrade Taiwan's status" and "rationalize its authoritarian expansion intentions."

Taiwan and Vietnam do not have formal diplomatic relations. However, MOFA pointed to the many recent people-to-people exchanges and cooperation in investment, trade, and tourism.
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This doesn't just affect Taiwan. It also affects the Philippines. Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan have the most to lose against the PRC, and the PRC is starting to peel one away from the others.
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 12:36:09 AM EDT
[Last Edit: zoinks] [#26]
I have two stories here with American politicians talking about the importance of Taiwan to the US. First one is Race Bannon and Ed Fuelner and the second is Nikki Haley.
Mike Pence condemns US isolationist views supporting ditching Taiwan
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   The US should not give in to isolationism, but remain committed to helping Taiwan defend against China, former US Vice President Mike Pence and The Heritage Foundation founder Ed Feulner said in a Washington Post opinion article published Wednesday (Aug. 21).

America's partnership with Taiwan has been "a cornerstone" of US policy in the Indo-Pacific, Pence and Feulner argued. "Taiwan is a crucial barrier to the expansion of communist influence in the region," they said.
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Nikki Haley supports Taiwan's UN and WHO membership
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   Taiwan deserves to be a full member of the United Nations and World Health Organization (WHO), former United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said Wednesday (Aug. 21).

She was a keynote speaker at the eighth edition of the Ketagalan Forum in Taipei City. Earlier in the day, President Lai Ching-te (   ) and former Japanese Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko also addressed the security forum.

Haley mentioned the COVID-19 pandemic as a reason to allow Taiwan wider international recognition, CNA reported. China was still evading its responsibilities, but Taiwan was actively preventing the spread of the pandemic right from the start, showing it deserved more than many other countries to be invited to the table, she said.

The retired diplomat described Taiwan as "a place of courage, confidence, and unwavering resolve," while calling on the US and other free nations to "stand strong with Taiwan." The UN should stop ignoring Taiwan, but allow it full membership of the global community.

Haley said that when she started work at the UN, she found out that Taiwanese were not even allowed into its headquarters in New York, because China had persuaded people that Taiwan's almost 24 million people did not exist.
View Quote

If anyone mentioned Taiwan at the UN, China would go crazy, she said. Yet, despite the pressure, more countries were moving closer to Taiwan, she said, mentioning Lithuania setting up a representative office, and Estonia considering doing so.

Haley also emphasized the need for strong defense assistance by the US and its allies for Taiwan, and expressed her support for a US-Taiwan free trade agreement as parts of a "diplomatic blitz" to raise Taipei's international profile, per Radio Taiwan International. If the free countries in the region stood together, they could dissuade China from trying to attack Taiwan, she said.
View Quote

Link Posted: 8/22/2024 12:43:49 AM EDT
[#27]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By zoinks:
Check this story out! First a little background,the previous premier was removed from power for corruption. It was a bit fishy as he wasn't pro-PRC, but apparently he's cool with their corruption?!?! There were enough witnesses that made any other point moot, so they get this new guy, and the new guy are the current President are not buddies and won't be. So, here we are!!!!!

Taiwan refutes strongly worded Vietnam-China statement

This doesn't just affect Taiwan. It also affects the Philippines. Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan have the most to lose against the PRC, and the PRC is starting to peel one away from the others.
View Quote

They did the same with every country surrounding India, some more successfully but same strategy
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 12:46:40 AM EDT
[#28]
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 4:09:45 AM EDT
[#29]
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 7:05:52 AM EDT
[#30]
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 8:40:06 AM EDT
[#31]
USS Ralph Johnson completed a freedom of navigation through the Taiwan Strait today.
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 8:52:18 AM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
View Quote


Not liking this line. “The changes all underscore the need to prepare for a looming conflict: potential control and invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese Communist Party.”


Below is the big take away for me. Everyone needs to prepare for what’s about to happen. It appears the General is trying to get the service into the right mindset so it can handle it.

Allvin ended the memo calling for everyone, not just family members, to be prepared for potential crises and to know where they can best find resources.

"Our service needs everyone in the Air Force community, including service members, civilian employees, family members, and community partners, to work together to improve our resilience and prepare to respond in moments of crisis," he wrote. "To achieve this, I encourage everyone to contribute to family readiness by getting involved, innovating, and preparing themselves for critical moments."


So between this memo and Gen. Mike Minihan the Commander of the Airforce air mobility commands memo which he put out last year, it appears Top Airforce brass believes conflict is coming soon.
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 7:09:51 PM EDT
[#33]
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 7:26:56 PM EDT
[#34]
Link Posted: 8/22/2024 10:58:13 PM EDT
[#35]
Taiwan’s top security officials make secret trip to US for talks

Visit to Washington area this week comes at sensitive time in relations between Beijing and Taipei

Taiwan’s top foreign policy officials have made a secret trip to the greater Washington area for talks with the US, the first such visit since President Lai Ching-te took office in May.
Foreign minister Lin Chia-lung and Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s national security adviser, have been in the Washington area this week for the talks that are known as the “special channel”, according to several people familiar with the visit.
The US and Taiwan have held the “special channel” talks for years, but their existence was first disclosed by the Financial Times in 2021 when the two sides, including Wu who was then foreign minister, met in Annapolis, Maryland. The channel is seen as a rare opportunity for a larger group of senior officials from both sides to hold detailed talks.
Successive US administrations have kept the channel under wraps to avoid Chinese criticism of the sensitive engagement. Beijing claims sovereignty over Taiwan, which has maintained an unofficial relationship with Washington since the US normalised relations with China in 1979.
The last special channel was in February 2023 when Wu and Wellington Koo, then national security adviser and now defence minister, met the US side across the river from Washington in northern Virginia.
Under a long-standing practice, Taiwan’s foreign minister and defence minister cannot enter the District of Columbia, so the channel has usually been held in the greater Washington area.
The people familiar with the situation did not disclose the location or the timing of the discussions. The Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, the de facto Taiwanese embassy in Washington, declined to comment on the talks. The White House declined to comment.
The channel comes at a sensitive time as China watches to see how Lai will handle relations with Beijing and Washington. The Chinese government has described Lai as a “dangerous separatist” and worries that he is more likely to take steps towards official independence than his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen. Some US officials are also privately nervous about Lai, who is inexperienced in foreign affairs and seen as more unpredictable than Tsai.
Evan Medeiros, a China expert at Georgetown University and former top White House Asia adviser, said the special channel was “one of the most sensitive and important mechanisms in global politics today”.
“The meeting comes at a critical time given Taiwan’s recent election. Clear and consistent communication between Taipei and Washington is essential, especially as People’s Republic of China pressure grows,” Medeiros added.
The US has grown increasingly concerned about rising Chinese military activity around Taiwan. China held huge military exercises around the island, including firing ballistic missiles overhead for the first time, in 2022 just after then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei. It has intensified its military activity since the Pelosi visit.
Randy Schriver, a former top Pentagon Asia official, said the special channel was always important because of the limited contacts allowed because of the unofficial relationship”. But he said it was particularly so now given the increasingly assertive Chinese military activity near Taiwan.
“A lot of people have the impression that [People’s Liberation Army] military activity spikes around events like the Pelosi visit or [presidential] inaugurations and then enters a normal and steady status quo, but the PLA continues to do more things and evolve. We are seeing more night-time exercises and things like air-air refuelling on the eastern side of Taiwan,” he said, citing one example.

https://www.ft.com/content/c4c5f7b3-9506-422b-a892-7b89e90a1631

Archive link https://archive.ph/Goaiu
Link Posted: 8/23/2024 4:49:28 AM EDT
[#36]
Cmdr Salamander always has good stuff on Naval affairs.

China Goes a'Shouldering in the South China Sea - another click of the ratchet

Shouldering has a long tradition among navies that have, well, disagreements about who should or should not be in certain waters.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has not been shy about being a bully on the seas, particularly against its neighbor to the southeast, the Philippines. It so happens that the Philippines is a treaty ally of the USA. As such, this situation needs to be in our scan.
View Quote
Link Posted: 8/23/2024 8:20:13 AM EDT
[#37]
Link Posted: 8/23/2024 9:24:02 AM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History


First step is don't send all your carriers to the middle east to fight a bunch of tribal shitbirds
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 1:51:01 AM EDT
[#39]
I expected this last week!

Score Cards!!!!!!!!!!!
Taiwan tracks 41 Chinese military aircraft, 7 naval ships
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   The Ministry of National Defense (MND) tracked 41 Chinese military aircraft and seven naval vessels around Taiwan between 6 a.m. on Thursday (Aug. 22) and 6 a.m. on Friday.

Of the 41 People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, 32 crossed the Taiwan Strait median line in the country's northern, southwestern, and eastern air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to the MND.
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Attachment Attached File


Taiwan detects 38 Chinese military aircraft and 12 naval ships
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   The Ministry of National Defense tracked 38 Chinese military aircraft and 12 naval vessels around Taiwan between 6 a.m. on Friday (Aug. 23) and the same time Saturday.

Of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, 32 crossed the Taiwan Strait median line in the country's northern, central, southwestern, southeastern, and eastern air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to the ministry.  
View Quote
Attachment Attached File

So far this month, Taiwan has tracked PLA aircraft 397 times and Chinese ships 218 times.
View Quote
There you have it!! Encirclement this time by manned aircraft instead of drones.
We still have some choices as to why the heavy action now:
  • jet engine life is short, and it takes time to replace engines
  • "lull before the storm", and now is the time for some type of action
  • US aircraft carriers are way out of position

Again, since we don't have the latest information at all, we can only guess, but I would say most of us are thinking very much sooner rather than later.
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 1:59:50 AM EDT
[Last Edit: zoinks] [#40]
Here's some other things that also happened:
Taiwan military fires missiles during exercise
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   Taiwan's defense ministry released a video of missiles hitting a target ship during a training exercise on Friday (Aug. 23).

The defense ministry said Hsiung Feng II and Hsiung Feng III missiles had been fired, one of which was launched from a National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology base on Taiwan's southeast coast, per CNA. The ministry said the test firing hit the targeted ship.
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The ministry said the missiles were fired in the early hours of Friday morning. It also said Hsiung Feng II and III missiles were fired from Navy vessels at sea.

The video released by the defense ministry also showed a Kuang Hua VI-class missile boat and the ROCS Fu Chiang being used in the training exercise.

The defense ministry also said that Dassault Mirage 2000, AIDC F-CK-1 Ching-Kuo, and F-16 fighter jets were used in the exercise. The aircraft were used to fire MICA, Sky Sword II, and AIM-120 missiles, it said.

The video was published in Youth Daily News, a defense ministry publication.
View Quote
There's a FaceBook video on the page, but my computer security won't unblock it for me when I ask it to!!! Last couple of weeks, computers have been very uncooperative. I'm sure there's nothing to see here.

Then there's this story that's probably the best guess of them all:
Report warns China may use blockade to annex Taiwan's Kinmen
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued a report warning that China may target Kinmen for annexation by means of a blockade.

Referring to such a measure as a "short-of-war coercion" strategy, the ISW report warns that quarantining Kinmen could serve to erode Taiwan's sovereignty and steadily normalize Beijing's jurisdiction over the territory. The report draws from multiple examples in recent years of China's efforts to impose its authority in the Taiwan Strait.

The study was published on Wednesday (Aug. 21) by Matthew Sperzel and Daniel Shats of the ISW, and Alexis Turek of the American Enterprise Institute. The report also warns that unpreparedness or unwillingness to respond on the part of the US will greatly increase the likelihood of this scenario.  
View Quote

To decrease the likelihood of Beijing taking this action, the authors call for Taiwan and its allies to preemptively strengthen Taipei's lines of communication to its outlying territories and to bolster defensive capability by increasing the Coast Guard presence in Kinmen and in the Taiwan Strait. This may also be assisted by a recognized and deputized Taiwan merchant marine force, authorized by Taipei to expel Chinese boats from Taiwan's territorial waters.

As the ISW makes clear, the proposed short-of war coercion campaign targeting Kinmen, and potentially similar measures targeting Lienchiang or Penghu Counties, appears increasingly likely.
View Quote

In late 2023, China unveiled its plans to integrate Taiwan's economy into Fujian's by means of a Cross-Strait Integration and Development Demonstration Zone. This was followed by a raft of proposals in May targeting Lienchiang County, also known as Matsu Islands for economic integration, which were considered a potential national security threat by Taipei.

Over the past several years, China has expanded its presence and activity in the Taiwan Strait through the use of gray-zone tactics, steadily increasing the number of Coast Guard and naval patrols in the region, especially around Kinmen. Taiwanese scholars assert that China is conducting these maritime patrols with the intention of transforming the Taiwan Strait into a "quasi-inland sea."

Chinese scholars have also recently recommended that Beijing establish a "shadow government" for Taiwan in nearby Xiamen, Fujian. Their proposal calls for a Central Taiwan Work Committee capable of being transplanted to Taipei following an invasion of Taiwan.
View Quote

The ISW report calls for increased vigilance by Taiwan and regional allies to ensure that China's slow-step process to annex Kinmen does not succeed. According to the ISW, "The success of (China's) campaign hinges on Taiwan, the United States, and other countries failing to respond meaningfully   and ultimately conceding to China's demands."
View Quote

ETA: I cleverly forgot to add in the map!
Attachment Attached File

That's how close Kinmen Island is to the Fujian Province. In the subset map, the big white island is Taiwan. and the tiny little white dot next to the dark greay of the PRC is Kinmen Island.
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 1:32:26 PM EDT
[#41]
https://www.newsweek.com/china-news-quietly-launches-most-advanced-submarine-missiles-vertical-1942786
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 9:25:00 PM EDT
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

GD doesn't get it. I've been saying for a while that we've gone past the point where breaking off trade with China hurts us more than them. Unless Europe joins in whatever sanctions we come up with. This post gives that opinion more support.
View Quote
It would suck a bunch for us, but I don't think Europe would survive, at least at the level of prosperity they have come to enjoy.

As for it hurting us more than them, no.  It would vaporize the CCP.  It would shock the world and likely cause a depression, but losing the US and EU as customers would obliterate China.
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 9:36:30 PM EDT
[#43]
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 9:43:03 PM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Typical budget posturing or a real problem?
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 10:49:26 PM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By xd341:
Typical budget posturing or a real problem?
View Quote

A very serious problem.
I don’t know the specifics for the AirForce but the readiness budget for the Army has been gutted and lots of the funds have been sent to EUCOM to support Ukraine. You factor in inflation and moving funds out of readiness to fund other missions shit is getting bad.
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 10:56:01 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By xd341:
Typical budget posturing or a real problem?
View Quote

Budget postering usually involves big ticket items, personnel is a well known problem with the USAF throwing up a patchwork of solutions to try and address it

Unlike the Army the USAF is more integrated as a component so less fighting over budget peanuts compared to active duty Army and reserve Generals lobbying Congress directly
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 10:58:43 PM EDT
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By xd341:
Typical budget posturing or a real problem?
View Quote

Maintenance isn’t sexy or pricey enough to bother faking

Link Posted: 8/24/2024 11:01:55 PM EDT
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:
Australia is the only one from this list not under China orbit https://www.southerncrossgold.com.au/antimony

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_9635-3299778.jpg
View Quote


Push comes to shove, I think Vietnam, maybe Brazil, would hop in our orbit.  But yeah, lots of important minerals are in places not friendly to us.

South Africa, bluntly, is too important to be left to South Africans to decide what they'll do.
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 11:03:35 PM EDT
[#49]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GoldenMead:


CHINA TO LIMIT ANTIMONY EXPORTS IN LATEST CRITICAL MINERAL CURBS

https://me.smenet.org/webContent.cfm?context=1&webarticleid=4831

China refines most of the rare earth minerals. The US needs to start doing it here once we find sources of them other than China.  Probably won’t happen with the current state of the EPA and current government.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GoldenMead:
Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:

From Covid medical supplies to this year it should have been a pick up the pace warning to the USA

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-export-curbs-choke-off-shipments-gallium-germanium-second-month-2023-10-20/

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_9654-3299836.jpg


CHINA TO LIMIT ANTIMONY EXPORTS IN LATEST CRITICAL MINERAL CURBS

https://me.smenet.org/webContent.cfm?context=1&webarticleid=4831

China refines most of the rare earth minerals. The US needs to start doing it here once we find sources of them other than China.  Probably won’t happen with the current state of the EPA and current government.


Eastern Sierra, Nevada, Arizona, have a shit ton of them.  Just need to tell the EPA to shut up and color, as well as provide a market such that they'll be economical to smelt/refine here again.
Link Posted: 8/24/2024 11:05:34 PM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By zoinks:
Check this story out! First a little background,the previous premier was removed from power for corruption. It was a bit fishy as he wasn't pro-PRC, but apparently he's cool with their corruption?!?! There were enough witnesses that made any other point moot, so they get this new guy, and the new guy are the current President are not buddies and won't be. So, here we are!!!!!

Taiwan refutes strongly worded Vietnam-China statement

This doesn't just affect Taiwan. It also affects the Philippines. Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan have the most to lose against the PRC, and the PRC is starting to peel one away from the others.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By zoinks:
Check this story out! First a little background,the previous premier was removed from power for corruption. It was a bit fishy as he wasn't pro-PRC, but apparently he's cool with their corruption?!?! There were enough witnesses that made any other point moot, so they get this new guy, and the new guy are the current President are not buddies and won't be. So, here we are!!!!!

Taiwan refutes strongly worded Vietnam-China statement
TAIPEI (Taiwan News)   Chinese leader Xi Jinping (   ) and Vietnamese President To Lam issued a joint statement on Tuesday (Aug. 20), referring to Taiwan as "an integral part of China's territory," which Taiwan's foreign ministry refuted.  

Lam, who became Vietnam's new leader in May, arrived in Beijing on Sunday (Aug. 18) for a three-day meeting with Xi. The two countries signed 14 documents, including deals on Chinese loans, technology to develop Vietnam's infrastructure, Vietnamese imports to China, an international railway connecting the two countries, and strengthened security ties.

The most recent statement used the strongest language yet vis-a-vis Taiwan, aligning Vietnam closer with China. Vietnam and China have released three joint statements since 2022, with the statement this month being the closest in wording to the official stance on Taiwan of the Chinese Communist Party.

In the statement, Vietnam "reaffirms its adherence to the "one-China" policy. It also "supports the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and opposes any form of "independent Taiwan."

In response, Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) issued a press release reiterating that Taiwan is a democratic country and that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other. The People's Republic of China has never ruled Taiwan, and only Taiwan's democratically elected government has the right to represent the Taiwanese people," MOFA added.

MOFA protested China's "repeated use of meetings with foreign leaders to make false remarks about Taiwan's sovereignty." It called on countries not to follow China's narratives that "downgrade Taiwan's status" and "rationalize its authoritarian expansion intentions."

Taiwan and Vietnam do not have formal diplomatic relations. However, MOFA pointed to the many recent people-to-people exchanges and cooperation in investment, trade, and tourism.
This doesn't just affect Taiwan. It also affects the Philippines. Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan have the most to lose against the PRC, and the PRC is starting to peel one away from the others.


Well, fuck.  Ignore what I said about Vietnam, a few posts ago.  Despite it hopefully just a case of playing both sides against the middle.
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