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Posted: 5/24/2022 10:07:10 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: (RE: missiles in Belarus) I agree. It's a difficult balance: 1) Legitimate mil target 2) Belarus has let Russia stage and deploy from it's territory before 3) Attacking Belarus could bring them in fully and create another front - which is, for the moment, already won. 4) Attacking Belarus could give Russia the casus belli to declare mobilization to come to their aid, giving Putin domestic political leverage he does not enjoy now. But: 4) Intentionally dragging Belarus into it could finally drag Lukashenko down, effectively flipping Belarus OUT of the I think they are eager to do it, but the bigger political angle isn't favorable yet. With more strength, it will be - same as clearing Transnistria. I believe that once Ukraine has the combat power for a broader counter-offensive, the preliminaries that signal it is imminent will be: a) clearing Transnistria, and b) neutralizing long-range weapons in Belarus. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By burnka871: Valid military target if you ask me. It's not like UA is launching missiles out of Poland. (RE: missiles in Belarus) I agree. It's a difficult balance: 1) Legitimate mil target 2) Belarus has let Russia stage and deploy from it's territory before 3) Attacking Belarus could bring them in fully and create another front - which is, for the moment, already won. 4) Attacking Belarus could give Russia the casus belli to declare mobilization to come to their aid, giving Putin domestic political leverage he does not enjoy now. But: 4) Intentionally dragging Belarus into it could finally drag Lukashenko down, effectively flipping Belarus OUT of the I think they are eager to do it, but the bigger political angle isn't favorable yet. With more strength, it will be - same as clearing Transnistria. I believe that once Ukraine has the combat power for a broader counter-offensive, the preliminaries that signal it is imminent will be: a) clearing Transnistria, and b) neutralizing long-range weapons in Belarus. Transited is a blister that needs popping. Ukraine has like 3 brigades tied up on that border just in case of a surprise attack from transited. Russian troops about 1.5k and about 5-8k conscript fat retired militia. A huge stockpile of Soviet munitions. Ukraine could take it in 3-4 days. Take the weapons for replenishment and send two brigades eat with a secure rear. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/24/2022 10:08:53 PM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 5/24/2022 10:25:57 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By veritas8985:
I absolutely get it. It might resemble my family. I hate to go off topic. Am I the only one who thinks that drawing looks like it has soot all over the front of it instead of looking like a guy who is sad??? |
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Posted: 5/24/2022 10:32:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AROKIE]
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: I absolutely get it. It might resemble my family. I hate to go off topic. Am I the only one who thinks that drawing looks like it has soot all over the front of it instead of looking like a guy who is sad??? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By veritas8985:
I absolutely get it. It might resemble my family. I hate to go off topic. Am I the only one who thinks that drawing looks like it has soot all over the front of it instead of looking like a guy who is sad??? No I always thought that also. Looks weird, it runs all the way down from his forehead for whatever reason. 
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Posted: 5/24/2022 10:32:45 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: I absolutely get it. It might resemble my family. I hate to go off topic. Am I the only one who thinks that drawing looks like it has soot all over the front of it instead of looking like a guy who is sad??? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By veritas8985:
I absolutely get it. It might resemble my family. I hate to go off topic. Am I the only one who thinks that drawing looks like it has soot all over the front of it instead of looking like a guy who is sad??? |
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NH, USA
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Posted: 5/24/2022 10:38:35 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: And what you said shows how overwhelming with multiple avenues of communication those assets are that we have, which we are currently unable to share with Ukraine. Watching Ukraine make do with a hodgepodge of various donated artillery, dispersed and able to use commercial high bandwidth satellites from Elon to adapt is what amazes me. I'm dorky like that.  And none of that matters when you don't do the basic things right, like take care of your ammo, do survey, do MVV, prop temp, all the other basics that I constantly see video of them not doing, and then see videos of what is in my opinion poor dispersion of their cannon impacts. This software they show them using probably works great at the company or battalion level. The Canadians have a similar simple system. These products fall apart when you start trying to control fires at the brigade or higher level, which is where the Ukrainians need to be at. Let's put it this way, if the Ukrainians were doing that well with artillery, the Russians wouldn't be able to advance under cover of large amounts of indirect fire. It's precisely because they cannot target or conduct counterfire effectively on a scale large enough to have the impact they need. Cool shots of hitting single tanks makes for a great video, but tactical level fires are not going to get the job done. |
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Posted: 5/24/2022 10:40:34 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: No, they’ll be lucky to keep Mauriopol when it’s all said and done. They (the Russians) are loosing 4-1 in men and equipment. The Ukrainians are attriting them, letting them blow their load and waiting for wester systems to arrive in large #. They have 100,000’s of troops not even forward deployed yet. They are just waiting till the Russians play themselves out. Then they will pinch them off. I’ve got 25$ on it. It might be another 2-3 months but you will see. I hope you are right about this, it sounds pretty hopeful to me. The russians are making big pushes and they are taking ground. With the russians in big formations instead of being strung out I would bet that the losses are no longer 4-1. Ukraine was able to hit small units and exposed convoys, Ukraine was defending and russia was attacking.That is no longer the case. The russians are now a lot closer to their own supply lines and their troops are better protected. If there are a lot of Ukraine troops and equipment about to come online it will make a difference. If not, I don't know how long it will take to damage the russian army to the point they can no longer move forward, and I have no idea how many the Ukranians are losing now. If they are closer to 1 to 1 rate at this point it really is a matter of who bleeds out first. |
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CO, USA
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Posted: 5/24/2022 10:42:57 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: I hope you are right about this, it sounds pretty hopeful to me. The russians are making big pushes and they are taking ground. With the russians in big formations instead of being strung out I would bet that the losses are no longer 4-1. Ukraine was able to hit small units and exposed convoys, Ukraine was defending and russia was attacking.That is no longer the case. The russians are now a lot closer to their own supply lines and their troops are better protected. If there are a lot of Ukraine troops and equipment about to come online it will make a difference. If not, I don't know how long it will take to damage the russian army to the point they can no longer move forward, and I have no idea how many the Ukranians are losing now. If they are closer to 1 to 1 rate at this point it really is a matter of who bleeds out first. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: No, they’ll be lucky to keep Mauriopol when it’s all said and done. They (the Russians) are loosing 4-1 in men and equipment. The Ukrainians are attriting them, letting them blow their load and waiting for wester systems to arrive in large #. They have 100,000’s of troops not even forward deployed yet. They are just waiting till the Russians play themselves out. Then they will pinch them off. I’ve got 25$ on it. It might be another 2-3 months but you will see. I hope you are right about this, it sounds pretty hopeful to me. The russians are making big pushes and they are taking ground. With the russians in big formations instead of being strung out I would bet that the losses are no longer 4-1. Ukraine was able to hit small units and exposed convoys, Ukraine was defending and russia was attacking.That is no longer the case. The russians are now a lot closer to their own supply lines and their troops are better protected. If there are a lot of Ukraine troops and equipment about to come online it will make a difference. If not, I don't know how long it will take to damage the russian army to the point they can no longer move forward, and I have no idea how many the Ukranians are losing now. If they are closer to 1 to 1 rate at this point it really is a matter of who bleeds out first. Even if it was close to 1:1, the Russians lose. Ukraine is mobilized. When it comes to a siege, the Rus won't hold out like the Ukes did at the steel plant. Not their home. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/24/2022 10:54:51 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: "McDonald's will continue to operate in Russia under the Mc brand, a source in the restaurant market told Izvestia. "M" can remain branded. Conceptually, the menu will not change, and the dishes will be closer to the classic McDonald's menu."
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/24/2022 11:11:20 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: I disagree partly with the linkage above about the Serbian war and Putin. The domestic situation in Russia - wrecked economy, unemployment, violence and crime - was so bad that it was more directly linked to the KGB coming back to power by promising stability. Less publicly but no different than brown shirts and Nazis in Weimar-era Germany. In 1992 Bush lost because Ross Perot split the vote. No other reason. It's a big media lie that war/economy/etc. trashed Bush. Clinton-favoring media lies to legitimize a minority vote getter - Clinton got well under 50%. If you take only 1/2 of the conservative Perot voters - a very SAFE assumption - and shift that to Bush, he beats Clinton comfortably. Bush lost because of a 3rd party split, not because Clinton beat him or was a popular choice. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By Wreckshooter: I do not see any linkage between Putin and the Serbian Civil War. Bush lost because of the economy and Putin gained power simply because Yeltsin trusted him. ... I disagree partly with the linkage above about the Serbian war and Putin. The domestic situation in Russia - wrecked economy, unemployment, violence and crime - was so bad that it was more directly linked to the KGB coming back to power by promising stability. Less publicly but no different than brown shirts and Nazis in Weimar-era Germany. In 1992 Bush lost because Ross Perot split the vote. No other reason. It's a big media lie that war/economy/etc. trashed Bush. Clinton-favoring media lies to legitimize a minority vote getter - Clinton got well under 50%. If you take only 1/2 of the conservative Perot voters - a very SAFE assumption - and shift that to Bush, he beats Clinton comfortably. Bush lost because of a 3rd party split, not because Clinton beat him or was a popular choice. One of the most interesting alternate timelines to consider is if Bush won a 2nd term without Perot, and its downstream effects. I suspect Clinton may have killed Bin Laden had his term been 1996-2004, as he was pretty focused on OBL as he was heading out of office in 2000 and mentioned him to Bush 2.. And I think Bush 1 would have likely made better inroads with a 'permanent peace' with Russia, and possibly worked toward a more formalized post cold war order. Sans 9/11, we could have |
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USA
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Posted: 5/24/2022 11:23:08 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: @gentlemanfarmer I’ll take that bet. I bet Ukraine doesn’t get back to pre special operation lines of control. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: No, they’ll be lucky to keep Mauriopol when it’s all said and done. They (the Russians) are loosing 4-1 in men and equipment. The Ukrainians are attriting them, letting them blow their load and waiting for wester systems to arrive in large #. They have 100,000’s of troops not even forward deployed yet. They are just waiting till the Russians play themselves out. Then they will pinch them off. I’ve got 25$ on it. It might be another 2-3 months but you will see. @gentlemanfarmer I’ll take that bet. I bet Ukraine doesn’t get back to pre special operation lines of control. A gentlemanly wager has been cast and GD is witness. |
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Posted: 5/24/2022 11:28:12 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheFaz: And none of that matters when you don't do the basic things right, like take care of your ammo, do survey, do MVV, prop temp, all the other basics that I constantly see video of them not doing, and then see videos of what is in my opinion poor dispersion of their cannon impacts. This software they show them using probably works great at the company or battalion level. The Canadians have a similar simple system. These products fall apart when you start trying to control fires at the brigade or higher level, which is where the Ukrainians need to be at. Let's put it this way, if the Ukrainians were doing that well with artillery, the Russians wouldn't be able to advance under cover of large amounts of indirect fire. It's precisely because they cannot target or conduct counterfire effectively on a scale large enough to have the impact they need. Cool shots of hitting single tanks makes for a great video, but tactical level fires are not going to get the job done. I don't doubt the veracity or accuracy of your critique for one second. However, how do we get that awareness down to the level where it is needed? I'm not joking. It doesn't have to be you, personally. But if you know some dudes who know fires coordination at the Bn/Bde level, and they don't have anything else going on right now, what can we do to help? ARF has deep networks and experience. Let's put that to work and kill more Orcs.  |
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Posted: 5/24/2022 11:36:54 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Russia has said that mlrs and himars given to Ukraine would be a redline that would mean they would have to respond militarily towards other nato countries so biden is being a pussy about giving Ukraine those..but I sure someone with balls does get them some long range rocket artillery Putin talks like a bitch. He can't do anything against NATO without losing everything he's worked for for the last 25 years. If I was President, Ukraine would already have some of our MLRS. |
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Posted: 5/24/2022 11:40:48 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Putin talks like a bitch. He can't do anything against NATO without losing everything he's worked for for the last 25 years. If I was President, Ukraine would already have some of our MLRS. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Russia has said that mlrs and himars given to Ukraine would be a redline that would mean they would have to respond militarily towards other nato countries so biden is being a pussy about giving Ukraine those..but I sure someone with balls does get them some long range rocket artillery Putin talks like a bitch. He can't do anything against NATO without losing everything he's worked for for the last 25 years. If I was President, Ukraine would already have some of our MLRS. agreed!! we need to send them asap |
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Posted: 5/24/2022 11:48:00 PM EDT
[#15]
It makes no sense especially on the world stage. Puti just sent in "terminators" but if UA should get goodies to equal things up it's a foul? F-that.
Like a boxing match, but one fighter has to wear gloves. And UA is the victim in this. F-that. Oh...and F- Putin. |
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Posted: 5/24/2022 11:52:17 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheFaz: And none of that matters when you don't do the basic things right, like take care of your ammo, do survey, do MVV, prop temp, all the other basics that I constantly see video of them not doing, and then see videos of what is in my opinion poor dispersion of their cannon impacts. This software they show them using probably works great at the company or battalion level. The Canadians have a similar simple system. These products fall apart when you start trying to control fires at the brigade or higher level, which is where the Ukrainians need to be at. Let's put it this way, if the Ukrainians were doing that well with artillery, the Russians wouldn't be able to advance under cover of large amounts of indirect fire. It's precisely because they cannot target or conduct counterfire effectively on a scale large enough to have the impact they need. Cool shots of hitting single tanks makes for a great video, but tactical level fires are not going to get the job done. I've been getting frustrated at the videos of one or two tanks getting blasted. Sure, every lost tank & crew is good. But what is really needed is the capacity to blast an entire grid square with sustained, coordinated artillery fire. Seeing one shot, then one more shot, then one more shot is seeing a lack of offensive capability. A continuous, wide barrage to permit tanks and infantry to advance to the newly-destroyed section is something I'd like to see. Yes, I'm a non-military punk. 
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Posted: 5/25/2022 12:01:13 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: I don't doubt the veracity or accuracy of your critique for one second. However, how do we get that awareness down to the level where it is needed? I'm not joking. It doesn't have to be you, personally. But if you know some dudes who know fires coordination at the Bn/Bde level, and they don't have anything else going on right now, what can we do to help? ARF has deep networks and experience. Let's put that to work and kill more Orcs. I think the issue is that if they don't get that stuff under control it isn't going to matter. Who should do what doesn't matter if they are losing battles and ground because of these failings. From a clinical perspective, if they continue to do these things badly they will continue to lose battles and it doesn't matter whos fault it is, they will continue to lose battles. I HOPE our own leaders have to balls to tell the Ukranian leadership they have to fix this or they will lose. If a guy on arf.com can see this on these videos then the US military has seen it a hundred times and knows why the Ukranians are losing battles. And they are. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 12:11:56 AM EDT
[#18]
 ???-82 | ??? ????? ????? ???????????????? ????? ?? | ????????? ?????? ??????? |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 1:08:47 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Christ. Ukraine needs more people and more weapons right fucking now.  Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-0c74a0c16b834732b81e460450da3131 the governor of the Luhansk region of the Donbas said the area is facing its “most difficult time” in the eight years since separatist fighting erupted there. “The Russians are advancing in all directions at the same time. They brought over an insane number of fighters and equipment,” the governor, Serhii Haidai, wrote on Telegram. “The invaders are killing our cities, destroying everything around.” He added that Luhansk is becoming “like Mariupol.” Christ. Ukraine needs more people and more weapons right fucking now. More than anything I think they need those GPS guided MLRS from HIMARS so they can start zapping Russian artillery from standoff distances. https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/guided-mlrs-unitary-rocket.html Alas, we seem to be pussing out about sending these: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/18/biden-resists-ukrainian-demands-long-range-rocket-launchers-00033473 |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 1:31:46 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67]
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: I've been getting frustrated at the videos of one or two tanks getting blasted. Sure, every lost tank & crew is good. But what is really needed is the capacity to blast an entire grid square with sustained, coordinated artillery fire. Seeing one shot, then one more shot, then one more shot is seeing a lack of offensive capability. A continuous, wide barrage to permit tanks and infantry to advance to the newly-destroyed section is something I'd like to see. Yes, I'm a non-military punk. Oh, that can be done. A rolling barrage. Perfected c. 1916 - not a problem. Even electrically registered and coordinated (yes, even in WWI). It can be done. But the real art is precision and efficiency. You are seeing the culmination of the art - why blast an area when you don't need to? If they need to plaster a large area with massed fire, it can be done. And if they want to plaster a good sized area with one gun, that can be done, too:  Elbit Systems / 155mm M454 Super High Explosive Artillery Projectile |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 1:53:54 AM EDT
[#21]
Ukraine Situation Report: Russian Forces Break Through In Parts Of Donbas
Three months into the invasion, Russian forces look set to secure roughly half of the Donbas region, but continue to face stiff resistance. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-forces-break-through-in-parts-of-the-donbas |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 2:58:30 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CletusRoundbelly: Don't worry about Ukraine, Germany has pledged all of it's remaining ME262 and ME109 fighter planes, as well as a handful of Pz4F2 tanks. So we will see the Luftwaffe dive bomb the T-34s Russia is about to field? The guys at the National WWII museum are going to need more defibrillators and sedatives. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 3:06:36 AM EDT
[#23]
One big positive this week; talk of WMD use has died down dramatically. The concern for Russia using a nuke seems to have subsided substantially in the media.
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Posted: 5/25/2022 3:59:17 AM EDT
[#24]
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Posted: 5/25/2022 4:26:16 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/639BE6EF-71C1-47B3-80D8-234F0D089C54_jpe-2396376.JPG Less tik tok, more training |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 5:01:45 AM EDT
[Last Edit: R0N]
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Agree, and it works well in Training/Exercises. However, in combat, TICs show up in the most unexpected places (especially when your AO is larger than the State of New Hampshire), and the 48-72 hour ATO/ACO cycle is not your friend when trying to establish a TAOR or OOB on short notice! Not to mention the fact that the Air Force doesn't seem to care for the entire "Digital Clearance of Fires" concept. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By CharlieR: Originally Posted By AZ_Mike: Originally Posted By R0N: So I took the time to watch it, I’m not really sure what is revolutionary about their system. Systems like TACFIRE, IFSAS and AFATDS have been doing that for going on 40 years. The biggest hangup in firing indirect fire is not the technical or tactical fire direction it’s always been the coordination with the battle and airspace owners. If that was not required we can generally getting a fire mission down the guns in under a minute. The Ukrainians are basically taking the FIFI, fuck it ,fire it, approach to fire direction. They are not only assuming big sky little bullet, but also little bullet a lot of ground. I've been told we have the same system with a 1-hour JAG review in the loop. No we dont. JAGs would say no if there is collateral damage. JAGs were actually predictable. If the blast radius overlapped a house or civilian thing, they'd say no. They were wrong as hell, but predictable. You could plan around them. If you kept eyes on and teh bad guys moved away from abuilding, game on. The US Air Force is the only organization that can defeat US Field Artillery. They could do it with incompetence like noone else. "The bad guys are running away but the jets are 15 minutes out, but you cant clear the skies for artillery because the jets I cant track might be overhead." All at once. All over the statistical absurdity of an artillery shell hitting a fast mover and actually killing a pilot. The fact that the Ukrainians can figure it out in a month what we couldnt unravel in twenty years shows the clarity of thought that happens when your country's ass is on the line. More power to them. Yep! The real frustration is when your AFATADS is linked to AMDWS and you have a spinning SENTINEL radar on the roof of the next building and can 3d depict that 1) the jets are 25 minutes out, not 15, the Max ord/max alt will the 5000' below the jets, and 3) the Gun/Target Line is in the opposite direction of the jets approach quadrant, and 4) the fire mission will be rounds complete 20 minutes before CAS is on-station, and they STILL shut down the mission.  That is why establishing either a TAOR or OOB is so important, you own air above the normal coordinating point, and only a few types of mission require the AOC involvement Agree, and it works well in Training/Exercises. However, in combat, TICs show up in the most unexpected places (especially when your AO is larger than the State of New Hampshire), and the 48-72 hour ATO/ACO cycle is not your friend when trying to establish a TAOR or OOB on short notice! Not to mention the fact that the Air Force doesn't seem to care for the entire "Digital Clearance of Fires" concept. MAGTFs own the air over their zone of action, so a standing TAOR normally goes along with that. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 5:15:40 AM EDT
[#27]
Another interesting thread on how the 'memes' of us vs them are playing out in Russia and Ukraine, and how that is driving Russian atrocities in the east.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1526947310546354177.html |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 5:51:06 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Ukraine Situation Report: Russian Forces Break Through In Parts Of Donbas Three months into the invasion, Russian forces look set to secure roughly half of the Donbas region, but continue to face stiff resistance. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-forces-break-through-in-parts-of-the-donbas it hasnt been looking good for Ukraine last few days.. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 5:59:47 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: Maybe one day some returned "love" into Russia's major cities even Moscow which is where the conscript draft dodgers hang out. That would wake up the population hit some of the Moscow SAM sites. |
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UKR
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Posted: 5/25/2022 6:02:43 AM EDT
[#30]
Breaking news
after 88 days of war russian tanks have finally entered Kyiv  |
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CO, USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 6:06:48 AM EDT
[Last Edit: CharlieR]
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: I hope you are right about this, it sounds pretty hopeful to me. The russians are making big pushes and they are taking ground. With the russians in big formations instead of being strung out I would bet that the losses are no longer 4-1. Ukraine was able to hit small units and exposed convoys, Ukraine was defending and russia was attacking.That is no longer the case. The russians are now a lot closer to their own supply lines and their troops are better protected. If there are a lot of Ukraine troops and equipment about to come online it will make a difference. If not, I don't know how long it will take to damage the russian army to the point they can no longer move forward, and I have no idea how many the Ukranians are losing now. If they are closer to 1 to 1 rate at this point it really is a matter of who bleeds out first. It is very hard to say. Note that what you aren't seeing, are glorious Russian videos of large numbers of Ukrainian tanks being knocked out. The Ukrainians captured a few hundred and have 2000, and there is little depiction of counterattacks, failed counterattacks, slaughter of Ukrainian counterattacks, etc... The Russians could advance another 5-10 miles. It doesn't matter...much...as the Ukrainians appear to be fighting a mobile defense. I am assuming with NATO satellites that they have really good SA on what they are up against. Killing key enablers, giving up ground, trading javelins for tanks, and counterattacking to take the ground back looks like the strategy. We'll see if it works. I would assume that thereis additional training manning and equipping that needs to happen. If someone has pictures/evidence of Ukrainian tank graveyards I could change my mind. Haven't seen that. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 6:47:27 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TiePilot69: Just to be 100% clear, the cats asleep at the end and not dead right? I cant tell of the guy has hung his head because he's tired or something has happened to the kitty. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TiePilot69: Originally Posted By GLHX2112: <------runs and hugs pet kitteh. Why do i click on these damn vids........  Just to be 100% clear, the cats asleep at the end and not dead right? I cant tell of the guy has hung his head because he's tired or something has happened to the kitty. Those eyes look pretty dead to me. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 6:52:33 AM EDT
[#33]
Rght now I think UA is just trading land for time. I don’t expect to see any large scale counteroffensives until late summer, early fall.
I believe UA is building a very large force but that takes time. It has been 3 months, about 12 weeks. Assuming they started training new forces on the day of the invasion that still does not mean they are ready to go. I have no idea how long a UA soldiers boot camp is but I imagine they aren’t just handing them a uniform and a rife and sending them to the front. Not if they want to win anyway. And not only do they need the training, the need the equipment. Helmets, boots, individual weapons. Word is they are trying to field a million man army. Thats a lot of equipment. I did a little googling on how long it took the US to basically train a force drone WWII. From recruit to theater. If UA is training anywhere close to this (which I assume they are; they seem to follow the western model of training your troops and not the Russian model of just tossing them into the fray). Found this interesting post on Reddit. "The length and rigor of training of units was not based upon their composition, but upon their type and role. I’ll use Infantry branch units and replacements as an example, since I have the most documentation on them. Part of the below is taken from an older answer. On February 16, 1942, General Headquarters, U.S. Army (which would give way a month later to the Army Ground Forces, Army Service Forces, and Army Air Forces) dictated 44 weeks (a hair over 10 months) as the period necessary to prepare an newly-activated infantry division for combat. The specified training period was reduced to 35 weeks beginning on November 1, 1942: Training Length: Basic and Individual Training 13 weeks Small Unit Training 11 weeks Combined Arms Training 11 weeks On January. 5, 1943, combined arms training was lengthened by a week to allow for more time to conduct a regiment-sized (with one battalion of the regiment utilizing live ammunition) "battle" exercise supported by tank, tank destroyer, and field artillery units. On February 4, 1943, small unit training was lengthened by a week to incorporate new exercises which involved infiltration, close combat, and combat in cities. On April 28, 1943, the War Department mandated that all combat troops complete a course in "transition" firing before moving from basic rifle training to combat exercises. This lengthened basic and individual training by a week; Training Length: Basic and Individual Training 14 weeks Small Unit Training 12 weeks Combined Arms Training 12 weeks Reddit Link |
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USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:04:24 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/639BE6EF-71C1-47B3-80D8-234F0D089C54_jpe-2396376.JPG If this is true, I will open a good bottle today. 
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USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:07:56 AM EDT
[#35]
 The Russians are moving a shit ton of T-62s into Crimea  https://nitter.net/UAWeapons/status/1529404520828133380#m |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:12:21 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheAvatar9265ft: Even if it was close to 1:1, the Russians lose. Ukraine is mobilized. When it comes to a siege, the Rus won't hold out like the Ukes did at the steel plant. Not their home. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheAvatar9265ft: Originally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: No, they’ll be lucky to keep Mauriopol when it’s all said and done. They (the Russians) are loosing 4-1 in men and equipment. The Ukrainians are attriting them, letting them blow their load and waiting for wester systems to arrive in large #. They have 100,000’s of troops not even forward deployed yet. They are just waiting till the Russians play themselves out. Then they will pinch them off. I’ve got 25$ on it. It might be another 2-3 months but you will see. I hope you are right about this, it sounds pretty hopeful to me. The russians are making big pushes and they are taking ground. With the russians in big formations instead of being strung out I would bet that the losses are no longer 4-1. Ukraine was able to hit small units and exposed convoys, Ukraine was defending and russia was attacking.That is no longer the case. The russians are now a lot closer to their own supply lines and their troops are better protected. If there are a lot of Ukraine troops and equipment about to come online it will make a difference. If not, I don't know how long it will take to damage the russian army to the point they can no longer move forward, and I have no idea how many the Ukranians are losing now. If they are closer to 1 to 1 rate at this point it really is a matter of who bleeds out first. Even if it was close to 1:1, the Russians lose. Ukraine is mobilized. When it comes to a siege, the Rus won't hold out like the Ukes did at the steel plant. Not their home. The commies have been steadily taking ground over the last few weeks. What ever gains the UA makes the commies come and take it back. This is very troubling. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:16:31 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: If this is true, I will open a good bottle today. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By sq40: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/639BE6EF-71C1-47B3-80D8-234F0D089C54_jpe-2396376.JPG If this is true, I will open a good bottle today. UA says so. https://www.facebook.com/AFUStratCom/posts/379218530913467 |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:41:47 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#38]
In typical fashion, it’s four dudes.
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VA, USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:54:20 AM EDT
[#39]
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TX, USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:01:32 AM EDT
[#40]
Can't delete the internet you backwards ass fucktardian Pol Pot wannabes. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:11:12 AM EDT
[#41]
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:24:57 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: One big positive this week; talk of WMD use has died down dramatically. The concern for Russia using a nuke seems to have subsided substantially in the media. They have shiny new domestic terror stories to stay occupied with.
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:27:26 AM EDT
[#43]
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/05/oil-leakage-new-dock-built-repair-russias-ill-fated-carrier
A photo has emerged online showing oil film on the water shortly after the "Admiral Kuznetsov" was moved into the dock at shipyard No. 35 in Murmansk.  |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:48:46 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mbinky: Rght now I think UA is just trading land for time. I don’t expect to see any large scale counteroffensives until late summer, early fall. I believe UA is building a very large force but that takes time. It has been 3 months, about 12 weeks. Assuming they started training new forces on the day of the invasion that still does not mean they are ready to go. I have no idea how long a UA soldiers boot camp is but I imagine they aren’t just handing them a uniform and a rife and sending them to the front. Not if they want to win anyway. And not only do they need the training, the need the equipment. Helmets, boots, individual weapons. Word is they are trying to field a million man army. Thats a lot of equipment. I did a little googling on how long it took the US to basically train a force drone WWII. From recruit to theater. If UA is training anywhere close to this (which I assume they are; they seem to follow the western model of training your troops and not the Russian model of just tossing them into the fray). Found this interesting post on Reddit. "The length and rigor of training of units was not based upon their composition, but upon their type and role. I’ll use Infantry branch units and replacements as an example, since I have the most documentation on them. Part of the below is taken from an older answer. On February 16, 1942, General Headquarters, U.S. Army (which would give way a month later to the Army Ground Forces, Army Service Forces, and Army Air Forces) dictated 44 weeks (a hair over 10 months) as the period necessary to prepare an newly-activated infantry division for combat. The specified training period was reduced to 35 weeks beginning on November 1, 1942: Training Length: Basic and Individual Training 13 weeks Small Unit Training 11 weeks Combined Arms Training 11 weeks On January. 5, 1943, combined arms training was lengthened by a week to allow for more time to conduct a regiment-sized (with one battalion of the regiment utilizing live ammunition) "battle" exercise supported by tank, tank destroyer, and field artillery units. On February 4, 1943, small unit training was lengthened by a week to incorporate new exercises which involved infiltration, close combat, and combat in cities. On April 28, 1943, the War Department mandated that all combat troops complete a course in "transition" firing before moving from basic rifle training to combat exercises. This lengthened basic and individual training by a week; Training Length: Basic and Individual Training 14 weeks Small Unit Training 12 weeks Combined Arms Training 12 weeks Reddit Link What you are failing to understand, that Ukraine already does understand is that they don't have time. There is not an option of giving up land to build up a bigger force. First you need to grasp the fact of "Russia is just blowing its load" is false or past-tense at this stage. Russia has very much learned from there mistakes at the first month of this war. VERY much learned. They are now fighting like a cohesive Combined Arms with strategy, and they are taking land EVERY day. UKRAINE, for the last 5 to 6 days has not been able to stop advances in very strategic places that is imperative for Ukraine to keep. There is no time to spare while they "build up" a force, as you say to stop the Russian onslaught. IF Russia takes DONETSK AND LUHANSK republics then Russia has won. And by all info available as of today it very much looks like that is going to happen, even if russia goes beyond those boundaries and are stopped by Ukraine russia has won this war. You are failing to realize as many are, even world leaders that if Ukraine cannot hold onto those regions NOW. There is no getting them back and a Ukraine that's smaller than Ukraine the day before this invasion started is no Ukraine at all. And the war is lost. Russia will announce they won the war, everythibg will calm down, Ukraine will be smaller and the west's support will come to a stop or close to it. Then it's back to other world problems and elections and the russo-ukraine war will be old news |
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AL, USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:55:28 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: Remember that mortar from the other day? Pro-Putin journalist accidentally reveals position of Russian mega mortar in propaganda report... and Ukraine blows it up the next day Aleksandr Kots was proudly showing off the 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm self-propelled heavy mortar in a propaganda report in Severodonetsk Kots (pictured) has been described as one of Putin's most 'valuable assets' and is regularly deployed as a war correspondent to spread propaganda to the Russian masses Perfect. That idiot should provide a daily report showing off soviet assets. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:56:17 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Oh, that can be done. A rolling barrage. Perfected c. 1916 - not a problem. Even electrically registered and coordinated (yes, even in WWI). It can be done. But the real art is precision and efficiency. You are seeing the culmination of the art - why blast an area when you don't need to? If they need to plaster a large area with massed fire, it can be done. And if they want to plaster a good sized area with one gun, that can be done, too:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G18Rwoa7c1kQuote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: I've been getting frustrated at the videos of one or two tanks getting blasted. Sure, every lost tank & crew is good. But what is really needed is the capacity to blast an entire grid square with sustained, coordinated artillery fire. Seeing one shot, then one more shot, then one more shot is seeing a lack of offensive capability. A continuous, wide barrage to permit tanks and infantry to advance to the newly-destroyed section is something I'd like to see. Yes, I'm a non-military punk. Oh, that can be done. A rolling barrage. Perfected c. 1916 - not a problem. Even electrically registered and coordinated (yes, even in WWI). It can be done. But the real art is precision and efficiency. You are seeing the culmination of the art - why blast an area when you don't need to? If they need to plaster a large area with massed fire, it can be done. And if they want to plaster a good sized area with one gun, that can be done, too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G18Rwoa7c1kThis is the kind of stuff I'm hoping Ukraine gets and can use. They have limited artillery available, so they need to use rounds that have extra capabilities whether they be extra lethal HE rounds that can equal more guns with standard ammo, or guided rounds to just precisely hit the targets on the first rounds, then scoot from the area and reposition. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:57:16 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: One big positive this week; talk of WMD use has died down dramatically. The concern for Russia using a nuke seems to have subsided substantially in the media. That certainly is one prayer that has been answered.
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USA
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:59:43 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: I absolutely get it. It might resemble my family. I hate to go off topic. Am I the only one who thinks that drawing looks like it has soot all over the front of it instead of looking like a guy who is sad??? Just looks like a take on this wojak to me https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/withered-wojak |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 9:01:34 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: The commies have been steadily taking ground over the last few weeks. What ever gains the UA makes the commies come and take it back. This is very troubling. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stgdz: Originally Posted By TheAvatar9265ft: Originally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: No, they’ll be lucky to keep Mauriopol when it’s all said and done. They (the Russians) are loosing 4-1 in men and equipment. The Ukrainians are attriting them, letting them blow their load and waiting for wester systems to arrive in large #. They have 100,000’s of troops not even forward deployed yet. They are just waiting till the Russians play themselves out. Then they will pinch them off. I’ve got 25$ on it. It might be another 2-3 months but you will see. I hope you are right about this, it sounds pretty hopeful to me. The russians are making big pushes and they are taking ground. With the russians in big formations instead of being strung out I would bet that the losses are no longer 4-1. Ukraine was able to hit small units and exposed convoys, Ukraine was defending and russia was attacking.That is no longer the case. The russians are now a lot closer to their own supply lines and their troops are better protected. If there are a lot of Ukraine troops and equipment about to come online it will make a difference. If not, I don't know how long it will take to damage the russian army to the point they can no longer move forward, and I have no idea how many the Ukranians are losing now. If they are closer to 1 to 1 rate at this point it really is a matter of who bleeds out first. Even if it was close to 1:1, the Russians lose. Ukraine is mobilized. When it comes to a siege, the Rus won't hold out like the Ukes did at the steel plant. Not their home. The commies have been steadily taking ground over the last few weeks. What ever gains the UA makes the commies come and take it back. This is very troubling. Yep and nothing makes this look OK or good for Ukraine |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 9:02:49 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: https://i.imgur.com/f5AZ2aj.jpg The Russians are moving a shit ton of T-62s into Crimea https://nitter.net/UAWeapons/status/1529404520828133380#m That's almost equivalent to a BMP-3, but the T-62 can't fire atgm's
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