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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:27:06 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By doc540: Excellent expand on that surrender part, please Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By doc540: Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: No I’d l ave enough there to capsular them, then use psyops to get a bunch to surrender with there equipment. In spite of what we see in the west, we are not supplying enough for this war to go for the long term. Germany, Italy, and France are already shaky on supplies. The other countries are nearing the tap out point. Moving to encircle or press the next defensive line along the highway, moving enough reserves up to soften the diehards in Lyman, maybe a week they will surrender, especially when they start to hear about units behind them getting pummeled. Don’t get trapped in a positional battle yet. No time. Only 3-4 more weeks to make stuff happen. Lyman will fall but better to harvest that ammo and armor. Also POWs good, gets good guys back who are being tortured. Excellent expand on that surrender part, please Increasing numbers of guys are surrendering. I expect the diehards are the BoRS and other militizia MvD SF guys holding the terror and mass abandonment in check. Target the radio/control hubs (I’m sure sigunt will locate) pummel them, then drop leaflets via cannon shell, drone, whatever. Shoot give the debit cards that get pins once they come in. Bring your tanks etc get paid. It’s being done here and there. Get rid of the NVKD checkists and they fold quick. Have the first few captured call in to the guys still there. No really we get smokes and a bed, 400$ dollars in debit for canteen if you bring a functioning tank, crew splits 50k. Main thing Is to get around the as quick as possible before the Russians can further harden the Kremina line. Pop that and you might get back 1/2 of Luhansk before the war stall for early winter. ATACMS should be deployed yesterday, for those fresh recruits and Rosgovardia checkpoints the second they step on Ukrainian land. Blowing a bus load out of 5, a train yard or two, on the way in will give the new meat time to rethink their current situation. Driving pass piles of dead grandpappies and chechyian/militia vehicles in twisted ruin, the second you cross the border might give the new recruits an ugly peak behind the veil. A big warm himars “welcome to Ukraine” is sure to help bolster their courage. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:27:12 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
When nukes were seemingly only in the hands of civilized nations (??), they didn't get used. Using them crosses or erases a "red line" that may force/demand a response. It might also be seen as a precedent in other areas by other players. Much like failure to respond mightily and severely and multi-nationally to the use of chemical weapons in the mid-east could well have been a mistake of global impact. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:30:01 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MouseBoy: thank Biden voters  Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MouseBoy: Originally Posted By Dracster: Originally Posted By Easterner: Well it looks like the explosions that I just heard a few minutes back were more residential areas in Dnipro. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/526834/Screenshot_2022-09-30-01-31-12-565_com_i-2544208.JPG The regular local account I follow magically disappeared from Instagram with over 5,000 posts. They have made several remarks about hackers attacking their page. Hope to see them back up. That looks like this pup from this morning. The Telegram post said grandma, mom, 12y daughter, 8y son, and another dog were in the rubble. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-09-29_09-34-23_jpg-2544226.JPG thank Biden voters you may want to look at how trump was trying to negotiate with ukraine and russia yesterday before making a comment like this. |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:41:16 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Easterner: Edit: This is from yesterday, not the ones tonight. Should have info later. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/526834/Screenshot_2022-09-30-01-31-12-565_com_i-2544208.JPG The regular local account I follow magically disappeared from Instagram with over 5,000 posts. They have made several remarks about hackers attacking their page. Hope to see them back up. 
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:41:32 PM EDT
[#5]
   Probably just the internet being the internet, but still funny. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:43:59 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Id be surprised if the pipeline specifically was being monitored at all. -Its a NATO area 360 degrees, the only enemy to to surveil is Russia -Its a Russian pipeline, they're the last people who would (at least if sane) attack their own pipeline, as they can simply turn off the gas at any time without needing to destroy it (as they were doing at the time of the blast) --> Up until yesterday the pipeline had no plausible enemies to surveil against 100kg also seems like a shit ton of HE to me, but would be consistent with a plausible deniability 'DIY Saboteur Divers' situation. Whether this was a tier 1 state actor or some bored SF freelance guys or Greta herself, everyone benefits from making it seem as low tech as possible to make it harder to trace. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: The original ship sinking Limpet mines of WW2 were invented by a guy who made vacation trailers, constructed out of metal bowls filled with explosive and some magnets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limpet_mine#Development https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6a/Clarke_with_limpet_mine_in_swimming_position.jpg/1024px-Clarke_with_limpet_mine_in_swimming_position.jpg So I think A,B,C could be pretty easily accomplished. A) Ukraine is chock full of unguarded explosives, and is pretty wide open for resoursefull foreigners to enter. At the ghettoist level, enough HE could be scrapped out of 155mm shells and land mines. B) The devices don't have to be very sophisticated. A big waterproof tube, filled with HE, connected to a waterproof timing initiator. An empty scuba tank full of cast melted TNT, for example. C) Using 3 simple digital timers / iphones / anything, set to go off in 48hrs, and then all activated at the same time, would accomplish the simultaneous detonation. 3 devices activated at the same instant at the dock, then divided up into 3 boats, then sailed to 3 locations. Divers take different levels of time to rig up the units, but they all go off in 48hrs. The Difficult part - D - is getting away with it. But there are any number of former SF on the private market / retired available who may relish a high risk Pirate operation to fuck Russia, and who would have the level of tradecraft to get away with it. I assume that due to the strategic value and vulnerability of the pipeline, the area was being monitored to some degree. Maybe patrol boats, maybe aircraft, maybe just satellite. If it was anyone other that a tier 1 State actor (with midget subs etc) there will be some trace like satellite footage of a ship loitering or passing too close. Is there commercial traffic in the area to mask activity? How is the weather there? Rough seas are not easy for small boats. How far away from possible land launch points is that pipe? How hard is it to find the cable? Are there lots of markers "Dont drag anchor-underwater gas-pipeline"? Or is the pipe hard to find? At 300' down you dont want to be doing a lot of swimming around looking for it. 100Kg of explosives sounds like over kill. If that report is even accurate. You can punch a T72 with 1lb in a shaped charge so why 100Kg for a 1.5" pipe? Probably a good reason but what is it? Id be surprised if the pipeline specifically was being monitored at all. -Its a NATO area 360 degrees, the only enemy to to surveil is Russia -Its a Russian pipeline, they're the last people who would (at least if sane) attack their own pipeline, as they can simply turn off the gas at any time without needing to destroy it (as they were doing at the time of the blast) --> Up until yesterday the pipeline had no plausible enemies to surveil against 100kg also seems like a shit ton of HE to me, but would be consistent with a plausible deniability 'DIY Saboteur Divers' situation. Whether this was a tier 1 state actor or some bored SF freelance guys or Greta herself, everyone benefits from making it seem as low tech as possible to make it harder to trace. I'm not familiar enough with the commercial/private availability of high? explosives. My impression is they are in use in mining, quarrying, demolitions, etc. No insight into the black market availability but given the universal nature of corruption, etc., I wouldn't be surprised that an unofficial actor could acquire them. However, I'd expect it's more likely an "official" act of some sort. Might be interesting to see what various seismological monitoring agencies refine their own reporting of the events to. They have a lot of experienc with all kinds of events, weapons yestys, etc., and, this was seafloor so maybe "initial" analysis was referencing deeper and/or different sorts of "blast" signatures? |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:47:38 PM EDT
[#7]
Russian Typhoon armored personnel carriers were spotted on the front for the first time.
https://t.me/istocni_front/8707 
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:51:13 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Featureless: I'm not familiar enough with the commercial/private availability of high? explosives. My impression is they are in use in mining, quarrying, demolitions, etc. No insight into the black market availability but given the universal nature of corruption, etc., I wouldn't be surprised that an unofficial actor could acquire them. However, I'd expect it's more likely an "official" act of some sort. Might be interesting to see what various seismological monitoring agencies refine their own reporting of the events to. They have a lot of experienc with all kinds of events, weapons yestys, etc., and, this was seafloor so maybe "initial" analysis was referencing deeper and/or different sorts of "blast" signatures? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Featureless: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: The original ship sinking Limpet mines of WW2 were invented by a guy who made vacation trailers, constructed out of metal bowls filled with explosive and some magnets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limpet_mine#Development https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6a/Clarke_with_limpet_mine_in_swimming_position.jpg/1024px-Clarke_with_limpet_mine_in_swimming_position.jpg So I think A,B,C could be pretty easily accomplished. A) Ukraine is chock full of unguarded explosives, and is pretty wide open for resoursefull foreigners to enter. At the ghettoist level, enough HE could be scrapped out of 155mm shells and land mines. B) The devices don't have to be very sophisticated. A big waterproof tube, filled with HE, connected to a waterproof timing initiator. An empty scuba tank full of cast melted TNT, for example. C) Using 3 simple digital timers / iphones / anything, set to go off in 48hrs, and then all activated at the same time, would accomplish the simultaneous detonation. 3 devices activated at the same instant at the dock, then divided up into 3 boats, then sailed to 3 locations. Divers take different levels of time to rig up the units, but they all go off in 48hrs. The Difficult part - D - is getting away with it. But there are any number of former SF on the private market / retired available who may relish a high risk Pirate operation to fuck Russia, and who would have the level of tradecraft to get away with it. I assume that due to the strategic value and vulnerability of the pipeline, the area was being monitored to some degree. Maybe patrol boats, maybe aircraft, maybe just satellite. If it was anyone other that a tier 1 State actor (with midget subs etc) there will be some trace like satellite footage of a ship loitering or passing too close. Is there commercial traffic in the area to mask activity? How is the weather there? Rough seas are not easy for small boats. How far away from possible land launch points is that pipe? How hard is it to find the cable? Are there lots of markers "Dont drag anchor-underwater gas-pipeline"? Or is the pipe hard to find? At 300' down you dont want to be doing a lot of swimming around looking for it. 100Kg of explosives sounds like over kill. If that report is even accurate. You can punch a T72 with 1lb in a shaped charge so why 100Kg for a 1.5" pipe? Probably a good reason but what is it? Id be surprised if the pipeline specifically was being monitored at all. -Its a NATO area 360 degrees, the only enemy to to surveil is Russia -Its a Russian pipeline, they're the last people who would (at least if sane) attack their own pipeline, as they can simply turn off the gas at any time without needing to destroy it (as they were doing at the time of the blast) --> Up until yesterday the pipeline had no plausible enemies to surveil against 100kg also seems like a shit ton of HE to me, but would be consistent with a plausible deniability 'DIY Saboteur Divers' situation. Whether this was a tier 1 state actor or some bored SF freelance guys or Greta herself, everyone benefits from making it seem as low tech as possible to make it harder to trace. I'm not familiar enough with the commercial/private availability of high? explosives. My impression is they are in use in mining, quarrying, demolitions, etc. No insight into the black market availability but given the universal nature of corruption, etc., I wouldn't be surprised that an unofficial actor could acquire them. However, I'd expect it's more likely an "official" act of some sort. Might be interesting to see what various seismological monitoring agencies refine their own reporting of the events to. They have a lot of experienc with all kinds of events, weapons yestys, etc., and, this was seafloor so maybe "initial" analysis was referencing deeper and/or different sorts of "blast" signatures? Yes we do monitor that area because of the Russian navy and the undersea cables. Russia just happened to be mucking around that area recently to fix and work on pipelines. It was a Russian spank to Germany and also a way to piss off Russians who see it as their personal check book. Gives the low IQ people here more Biden conspiracy fodder. Lots of win for Russia. Russia knew it wouldn’t be a major income source for years. The Germans can rebuild it when they get cold etc. |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:51:47 PM EDT
[#9]
 A Ukraine battle tank destroys a Russian T-72B in spectacular fashion with 125mm main gun fire |
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IL, USA
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:53:39 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By doc540: If you were calling the shots.... How would you proceed now that the Russians in Lyman are encircled and their only "escape route" is covered by Ukraine assets from rifles to HIMARS? It's YOUR call.... https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/183309/patton1-2544269.jpg Cut them off and use lots of drones dropping surrender cards. |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:55:36 PM EDT
[#11]
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Posted: 9/29/2022 10:59:08 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: Am I the Ukrainians? Bypass Lyman, stab east hard, let follow on units pour in and deal with the Russkies in Lyman. Let them surrender. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: Originally Posted By doc540: If you were calling the shots.... How would you proceed now that the Russians in Lyman are encircled and their only "escape route" is covered by Ukraine assets from rifles to HIMARS? It's YOUR call.... https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/183309/patton1-2544269.jpg Am I the Ukrainians? Bypass Lyman, stab east hard, let follow on units pour in and deal with the Russkies in Lyman. Let them surrender. Yes. "Like water around a rock." - The northern element leaves a screening force and pushes NE towards Svatove. - Forces already breaking through further north on the Oksil drive SW to the northern edge of Svatove. - Encircle and then move towards Starobilsk. If you can capture Svatove and get as least as far as being able to bring the Starobilsk railyard under artillery, the supply routes to Luhansk proper are cut by 2/3rds. You can starve or clear out pockets at will in the "off season" but you have shaped the battlefield for the final push. If equipped up for winter ops, it could be an easier job to push a less winter-equipped force right out of all of Luhansk Ob. |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:00:01 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Russian Typhoon armored personnel carriers were spotted on the front for the first time. https://t.me/istocni_front/8707 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/57242459-64B6-4C2D-BCFE-B34B8C1E4D93-2544553.jpg That's pretty badass looking. |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:00:23 PM EDT
[#14]
Two RU BTR-82s with return fire from artillery. |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:04:25 PM EDT
[#15]
Kings and Generals is a YT channel that produces some excellent war/battle documentaries. They've been doing a series on Ukraine and just came out with their vid on the Kharkiv offensive. Very good watch.
Ukrainian Kharkiv Counter-Offensive - Russian Invasion DOCUMENTARY  Ukrainian Kharkiv Counter-Offensive - Russian Invasion DOCUMENTARY |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:06:40 PM EDT
[#16]
Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast
 ???????-?’?????? ? ????????????? ?????????? – ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ?? ?????? ????? |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:09:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Willmar]
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: How many years did we have to suffer through all the bullshit from Russian fan boys talking about their beloved S300 and S400 systems as if they were unstoppable? HARM was useless against them they said, because the launching aircraft would be shot down by the magnificent S300 and S400 long before they could even get within range to fire a HARM. And should the unthinkable actually happen and a launch aircraft managed to get inside the S300 envelope, then the HARM would be blown out of the sky by the SHORAD systems protecting the S300/400. Funny how those guys have disappeared now that their unstoppable SAM systems are getting fucked up by early 1990s era AGM-88B HARM missiles and their supply depots and troop concentrations ravaged by HIMARS, which they also have zero capability to deal with. Russian systems and Russian operators aren't worth a cunt full of cow slobber. The only folks who can seem to get decent performance out of Russian air defense systems are the Ukrainians! That is likely because they are more intelligent and better capable to tweak and adapt to capitalize on the sgtrengths and minimize the weaknesses of these systems. I can't wait to see what kind of work they'll be able to do once they get their hands on NASAMS, Iris-T and eventually longer range systems such as Patriot or the Mamba/SAMP-T. The skies around Ukraine would likely look like the opening morning of bird season with all the shit falling out of the sky. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
How many years did we have to suffer through all the bullshit from Russian fan boys talking about their beloved S300 and S400 systems as if they were unstoppable? HARM was useless against them they said, because the launching aircraft would be shot down by the magnificent S300 and S400 long before they could even get within range to fire a HARM. And should the unthinkable actually happen and a launch aircraft managed to get inside the S300 envelope, then the HARM would be blown out of the sky by the SHORAD systems protecting the S300/400. Funny how those guys have disappeared now that their unstoppable SAM systems are getting fucked up by early 1990s era AGM-88B HARM missiles and their supply depots and troop concentrations ravaged by HIMARS, which they also have zero capability to deal with. Russian systems and Russian operators aren't worth a cunt full of cow slobber. The only folks who can seem to get decent performance out of Russian air defense systems are the Ukrainians! That is likely because they are more intelligent and better capable to tweak and adapt to capitalize on the sgtrengths and minimize the weaknesses of these systems. I can't wait to see what kind of work they'll be able to do once they get their hands on NASAMS, Iris-T and eventually longer range systems such as Patriot or the Mamba/SAMP-T. The skies around Ukraine would likely look like the opening morning of bird season with all the shit falling out of the sky. Whatever happened to Primorsky? He was one of the dudes that used to talk shit all the time about how awesome Russian weapons were. Charging_Handle’s post made me think of him. Edited for spelling |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:11:00 PM EDT
[#18]
   
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WI, USA
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:19:33 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: That looks like this pup from this morning. The Telegram post said grandma, mom, 12y daughter, 8y son, and another dog were in the rubble. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-09-29_09-34-23_jpg-2544226.JPG 
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CA, USA
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:28:00 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Who do you need to "know" to get that assignment. Belarus or the grinder? |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:39:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67]
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: I think the performance of the Russian Air Force is one of the most interesting mysteries of the war. So far as we can tell, it basically disappeared for large swaths of the war. Why? Now that it has become more active it appears to be suffering significant and verifiable losses. Issues that I can come up with:... Some other things I've seen hinted or just said this was the case even before the war. Unfortunately I did not bookmark them. Ah - found one, this is from WarOnTheRocks - I didn't see it until a month or so ago when looking for analysis like this: https://warontherocks.com/2018/09/russian-performance-in-the-russo-georgian-war-revisited/ This is from 2018 and analyzes the Georgian war in 2008. It hints at a lot of the general issues everyone sees now, but not many looked closely enough to see was there. Another source was wrt to Syria, and I can't find it now. Apparently a lot of people noticed some of the things you outlined - -very low sortie rate, presumed maintenance issues. -Complete inability to deconflict airspace -no serious in-air refueling capability -no pgm's -Inability to organize and execute multi-flight sorties Apparently if you had been hunting for it, or had been tracking that osint before, none of this would actually be surprising. I agree with you, surprising to see all this come out - but that just means you, I, and others were behind the power curve here. ;) |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:41:40 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Featureless: Who do you need to "know" to get that assignment. Belarus or the grinder? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Featureless: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Who do you need to "know" to get that assignment. Belarus or the grinder? Here's a play for Lukashenko: Invite a bunch of Russian BTGs in for staging & exercises. Find and liquidate every damn FSB operative in all Belarus. Train Russians for their new mission to go to Moscow and shut this war down by mass murdering all Putin's supports (and Putin of course) and all the FSB. Wishful thinking, I know. |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:43:47 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Willmar: Whatever happened to Primorsky? He was one of the dudes that used to talk shit all the time about how awesome Russian weapons were. Charging_Handle’s put made me think of him. Banned in 2012. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:48:37 PM EDT
[#24]
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:52:01 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Willmar: Whatever happened to Primorsky? He was one of the dudes that used to talk shit all the time about how awesome Russian weapons were. Charging_Handle’s put made me think of him. I remember that guy! I always gave him a hard time about his avatar. It was an image of some orc soldier/officer or something that looked just like the inbred, banjo picker from Deliverance. 
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:54:26 PM EDT
[#26]
Do you guys think mud season is going to benefit the Russians or the Ukrainians more?
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CA, USA
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:55:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Featureless]
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LoBrau: That does have a certain insane Russian internal logic to it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LoBrau: Originally Posted By DonS: Originally Posted By Jack67: Another possible angle I’ve not seen mentioned in this thread: A suicide pact. Theory: Putin ordered it to destroy the option of someone thinking they could bump him off and get back to business as usual. He’s cut that option off for other elites so as to limit their options for alliance against him. It does make a degree of sense. I saw this in another thread elsewhere, not my original idea. Hmmm. That does have a certain insane Russian internal logic to it. Or someone with a long term grudge? Because even with a kiss and make up, that pipeline isn't moving any gas. Anybody around there hate the Russians? |
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Posted: 9/29/2022 11:57:54 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Do you guys think mud season is going to benefit the Russians or the Ukrainians more? The next 3 months will be a war on and over roads. That's the only guaranteed mobility possible. |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:00:17 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Do you guys think mud season is going to benefit the Russians or the Ukrainians more? Raputista gives an advantage to the side with greater mobility, better mechanization, logistical sophistication, better fieldcraft, better equipped troops. So a clear advantage to Ukr ops. Winter confers the same (relative) advantage. |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:12:45 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Freiheit8472]
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdzrYsAXkAA3J2q?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdzrlYnWIAIujYB?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdzvZTwX0AAf_Wk?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdzvieEXoAE8UQ9?format=jpg&name=large Wonder where THAT computer came from… who else sees it? ETA: thats an “unclassified sticker put on all dod unclass computers. Maybe some nato (or wannabe NATO) allies use the sticker, to give the benefit of the doubt . Eeh It could also be windows or product labeling now that i look closer. Ok i should go to be and stop posting.  |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:13:28 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Do you guys think mud season is going to benefit the Russians or the Ukrainians more? 15 pairs of Solomon hiking boots will prove its merit ...... hopefully. |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:16:58 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: I think the performance of the Russian Air Force is one of the most interesting mysteries of the war. So far as we can tell, it basically disappeared for large swaths of the war. Why? Now that it has become more active it appears to be suffering significant and verifiable losses. Issues that I can come up with: Spare parts shortage: Pilot shortage/pilot morale. The issue of Wagner pilots is an interesting unanswered question. They appear to be of very questionable quality, so what made it necessary to hire merc pilots? Is the pilot shortage really that bad? Ground crew shortage and/or incompetence Consumables shortage (i.e. flares/chaff) PGM shortage leading to unacceptable loss rates Inadequate air/ground communications/tactics causing red on red issues Successful (but unknown) Ukrainian tactics/capabilities. The series of separately released videos last week where two SUs and a KA were shot down may be related. I strongly suspect that such shootdowns are not random defensive action but deliberate flak traps. The best proof of that is probably the video from several months ago where three Russian helis were shot down But the UA appears to edit/break up most such videos to prevent anyone getting a really good idea of what happened beyond confirmation of a shootdown, which is absolutely the right thing to do. NASMS and IRIS-T are likely to bring a new level of pain to the Russian AF. I bet a big part of it is a failure of maintenance and repair ability. The Russians (and Soviets previously) have always skimped on maintenance. Combat aircraft are complex machines that require a high level of maintenance, skill, and expense. This is probably failing Russia now. It doesn't help that much of the spare parts have input materials from the West, which are not unavailable due to sanctions. I'd bet that the deployable aircraft they have, most importantly the multirole (SU-30/34) are unavailable due to maintenance/battle damage issues. They have to keep some in reserve of course for any other threat that may emerge. |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:31:14 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Me either, I really appreciated CharlieR's review of them.  Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By CharlieR: Originally Posted By p3590: How is this different from a seabag/duffle bag that western militaries would give a recruit? I would assume, even with russian logistics, they'd get more combat suitable packs closer to the front (probably with parts of their previous owners). Firstly, it is a 150 year old design and is the sort of thing you give a peasant who a) has nothing to put in it. b) Wont be alive too long. Secondly, no, they don't get something better. This is what Russians used in WWII. Lastly, it is the cheapest, absolutely stupidist idea to carry shit ever. Unlike every other backpack ever made, including a five dollar walmart special a 3rd grader might use, the straps dont connect from bottom to top. You have to cinch it shut like a laundry bag, it basically is a laundry bag, and then use the bottom attaching only straps to wrap around the gooseneck. You cant get anything out of it quickly, like socks or whatever, it is flimsy and prone to failure. Here's a video.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1RH0aj0TjgHere is an example of a reproduction of those crack soldiers going up Bunker Hill, 350 years ago, and their basic knapsack were a work of genius compared to this piece of garbage. https://i.pinimg.com/originals/cf/a5/7b/cfa57bb7bdfc4e3e49ef4961ccdbdb64.jpg I had no idea that the shoulder straps is also what closes the bag. That is one fucking retarded piece of gear. Me either, I really appreciated CharlieR's review of them. I thought our standard issue seabags were a pain...that thing in a whole nother level. |
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IL, USA
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:36:45 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Do you guys think mud season is going to benefit the Russians or the Ukrainians more? Ukraine, because they are on their home turf, have better artillery, and seem to have the air While the mud might slow Ukraine's advance down. It will make life downright miserable for the Russians. Mud Snow Crap equipment Crap training Crap morale No air support Drones constantly dropping grenades on your head. Supply lines cut Tracks in the mud and snow will make it hard to hide tanks from drones and HIMARS. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:44:50 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Yes. "Like water around a rock." - The northern element leaves a screening force and pushes NE towards Svatove. - Forces already breaking through further north on the Oksil drive SW to the northern edge of Svatove. - Encircle and then move towards Starobilsk. If you can capture Svatove and get as least as far as being able to bring the Starobilsk railyard under artillery, the supply routes to Luhansk proper are cut by 2/3rds. You can starve or clear out pockets at will in the "off season" but you have shaped the battlefield for the final push. If equipped up for winter ops, it could be an easier job to push a less winter-equipped force right out of all of Luhansk Ob. That's what I'm talking about! Booker! Booker! Where's my uniform?  Eastwood: We're Pulling Out And Pushing Forward!! |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:48:45 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: In WWII the mud benefitted the defensive side better. But if Ukraine can keep its interior lines straight and clear then the mud might not matter as much. The next 3 months will be a war on and over roads. That's the only guaranteed mobility possible. This war is very different. Highly accurate artillery/HIMARs vs. troops unable to move quickly. Drones dropping grenades vs. troops unable to move quickly. Winter and mud favors Ukraine. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:49:24 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Featureless: I'm not familiar enough with the commercial/private availability of high? explosives. My impression is they are in use in mining, quarrying, demolitions, etc. No insight into the black market availability but given the universal nature of corruption, etc., I wouldn't be surprised that an unofficial actor could acquire them. However, I'd expect it's more likely an "official" act of some sort. Might be interesting to see what various seismological monitoring agencies refine their own reporting of the events to. They have a lot of experienc with all kinds of events, weapons yestys, etc., and, this was seafloor so maybe "initial" analysis was referencing deeper and/or different sorts of "blast" signatures? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Featureless: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: The original ship sinking Limpet mines of WW2 were invented by a guy who made vacation trailers, constructed out of metal bowls filled with explosive and some magnets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limpet_mine#Development https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6a/Clarke_with_limpet_mine_in_swimming_position.jpg/1024px-Clarke_with_limpet_mine_in_swimming_position.jpg So I think A,B,C could be pretty easily accomplished. A) Ukraine is chock full of unguarded explosives, and is pretty wide open for resoursefull foreigners to enter. At the ghettoist level, enough HE could be scrapped out of 155mm shells and land mines. B) The devices don't have to be very sophisticated. A big waterproof tube, filled with HE, connected to a waterproof timing initiator. An empty scuba tank full of cast melted TNT, for example. C) Using 3 simple digital timers / iphones / anything, set to go off in 48hrs, and then all activated at the same time, would accomplish the simultaneous detonation. 3 devices activated at the same instant at the dock, then divided up into 3 boats, then sailed to 3 locations. Divers take different levels of time to rig up the units, but they all go off in 48hrs. The Difficult part - D - is getting away with it. But there are any number of former SF on the private market / retired available who may relish a high risk Pirate operation to fuck Russia, and who would have the level of tradecraft to get away with it. I assume that due to the strategic value and vulnerability of the pipeline, the area was being monitored to some degree. Maybe patrol boats, maybe aircraft, maybe just satellite. If it was anyone other that a tier 1 State actor (with midget subs etc) there will be some trace like satellite footage of a ship loitering or passing too close. Is there commercial traffic in the area to mask activity? How is the weather there? Rough seas are not easy for small boats. How far away from possible land launch points is that pipe? How hard is it to find the cable? Are there lots of markers "Dont drag anchor-underwater gas-pipeline"? Or is the pipe hard to find? At 300' down you dont want to be doing a lot of swimming around looking for it. 100Kg of explosives sounds like over kill. If that report is even accurate. You can punch a T72 with 1lb in a shaped charge so why 100Kg for a 1.5" pipe? Probably a good reason but what is it? Id be surprised if the pipeline specifically was being monitored at all. -Its a NATO area 360 degrees, the only enemy to to surveil is Russia -Its a Russian pipeline, they're the last people who would (at least if sane) attack their own pipeline, as they can simply turn off the gas at any time without needing to destroy it (as they were doing at the time of the blast) --> Up until yesterday the pipeline had no plausible enemies to surveil against 100kg also seems like a shit ton of HE to me, but would be consistent with a plausible deniability 'DIY Saboteur Divers' situation. Whether this was a tier 1 state actor or some bored SF freelance guys or Greta herself, everyone benefits from making it seem as low tech as possible to make it harder to trace. I'm not familiar enough with the commercial/private availability of high? explosives. My impression is they are in use in mining, quarrying, demolitions, etc. No insight into the black market availability but given the universal nature of corruption, etc., I wouldn't be surprised that an unofficial actor could acquire them. However, I'd expect it's more likely an "official" act of some sort. Might be interesting to see what various seismological monitoring agencies refine their own reporting of the events to. They have a lot of experienc with all kinds of events, weapons yestys, etc., and, this was seafloor so maybe "initial" analysis was referencing deeper and/or different sorts of "blast" signatures? Insurgents, T's, lunatics, and bored high schoolers all have a long history of DIY HE synthesis. Dynamite was synthesized at scale in a time before widespread electricity use... Anyone with the motivation and wherewithal to launch an underwater commando raid would have the technical ability to scratch produce the HE and timing mechanism. Compared to the successful diving and getting away, the actual device procurement is way easier. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:56:39 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Featureless: When nukes were seemingly only in the hands of civilized nations (??), they didn't get used. Using them crosses or erases a "red line" that may force/demand a response. It might also be seen as a precedent in other areas by other players. Much like failure to respond mightily and severely and multi-nationally to the use of chemical weapons in the mid-east could well have been a mistake of global impact. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Featureless: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
When nukes were seemingly only in the hands of civilized nations (??), they didn't get used. Using them crosses or erases a "red line" that may force/demand a response. It might also be seen as a precedent in other areas by other players. Much like failure to respond mightily and severely and multi-nationally to the use of chemical weapons in the mid-east could well have been a mistake of global impact. What about when America used nukes? Were we not civilized? |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:57:14 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Raputista gives an advantage to the side with greater mobility, better mechanization, logistical sophistication, better fieldcraft, better equipped troops. So a clear advantage to Ukr ops. Winter confers the same (relative) advantage. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Do you guys think mud season is going to benefit the Russians or the Ukrainians more? Raputista gives an advantage to the side with greater mobility, better mechanization, logistical sophistication, better fieldcraft, better equipped troops. So a clear advantage to Ukr ops. Winter confers the same (relative) advantage. The better side has the advantage? Ground breaking stuff lol 
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Posted: 9/30/2022 12:59:02 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cash50: What about when America used nukes? Were we not civilized? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cash50: Originally Posted By Featureless: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
When nukes were seemingly only in the hands of civilized nations (??), they didn't get used. Using them crosses or erases a "red line" that may force/demand a response. It might also be seen as a precedent in other areas by other players. Much like failure to respond mightily and severely and multi-nationally to the use of chemical weapons in the mid-east could well have been a mistake of global impact. What about when America used nukes? Were we not civilized? I was gonna say.... we're the only ones to ever use them on an enemy. Fuck em though they started it 
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Posted: 9/30/2022 1:03:16 AM EDT
[Last Edit: MarkNH]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mokerr: I was gonna say.... we're the only ones to ever use them on an enemy. Fuck em though they started it We used them when we were the only people who had them to end a war that would have killed way more than the 2 nukes did. 2 nukes ended WW2 without a single American life lost invading Japan (and less Japanese lives lost than if we fire bombed all their cities prior to an invasion, not that I really care). Now we have nukes on lots of sides and using them will get you killed in response. |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 1:04:55 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Russian Typhoon armored personnel carriers were spotted on the front for the first time. https://t.me/istocni_front/8707 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/57242459-64B6-4C2D-BCFE-B34B8C1E4D93-2544553.jpg those are actually a good piece of kit. ceramic armor and good mine protection. that 30mm is damn lethal. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 9/30/2022 1:32:25 AM EDT
[#43]
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Posted: 9/30/2022 1:42:32 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By m00ler03:
That little bit of news will likely spoil much of the fun at today's annexation ceremonies in Moscow. I get considerable satisfaction knowing that. Annex whatever you want, Vlad. Ukraine is just going to annex it right back and stack thousand of Russian corpses in the process. Maybe Russia should next hold a referendum on how to not suck as a nation and a culture, but even that would likely fail since it would only be their moronic asses providing suggestions. |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 1:58:48 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Easterner: Well finally saw something posted on the attack in Dnipro a few hours ago (2nd in two days). There goes another residential area, and the маршрутки (minibuses). This is how many people travel around the city as it is only 15 Hryvnia (35¢). Looks like the streetcars and Electric buses will be overwhelmed. Ooof people are gonna be pissed. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/526834/Screenshot_2022-09-30-03-05-03-096_com_i-2544306.JPG How else do you describe people who, whether accidentally or intentionally, can fuck up a fucking bus depot, as opposed to a legitimate military target?! It isn't because of bad intelligence or any other kind of explainable reason, it's literally because their weapons suck so much, or they care so little, that these kind of places are destroyed. ORCS is exactly the right word. And FUCK EM' if they or anyone else are "offended" by the appellation. If the shoe fits, fucking wear it.
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CA, USA
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Posted: 9/30/2022 2:11:03 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cash50: What about when America used nukes? Were we not civilized? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cash50: Originally Posted By Featureless: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
When nukes were seemingly only in the hands of civilized nations (??), they didn't get used. Using them crosses or erases a "red line" that may force/demand a response. It might also be seen as a precedent in other areas by other players. Much like failure to respond mightily and severely and multi-nationally to the use of chemical weapons in the mid-east could well have been a mistake of global impact. What about when America used nukes? Were we not civilized? What do you think? When we used them, we were the only nation with them. Singular. When they were theoretically only in the hands of a very few more nations (plural), no one used them. It seems likely there has been proliferation beyond the few nations of the Cold War era. Five including China through 1964 or so. Proxy wars not withstanding, only Russia/USSR and China have fought each other and neither used them. I don't know that all of the potential post China added nuke powers feel the same sorts of restraints. |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 2:21:21 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Featureless: What do you think? When we used them, we were the only nation with them. Singular. When they were theoretically only in the hands of a very few more nations (plural), no one used them. It seems likely there has been proliferation beyond the few nations of the Cold War era. Five including China through 1964 or so. Proxy wars not withstanding, only Russia/USSR and China have fought each other and neither used them. I don't know that all of the potential post China added nuke powers feel the same sorts of restraints. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Featureless: Originally Posted By cash50: Originally Posted By Featureless: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
When nukes were seemingly only in the hands of civilized nations (??), they didn't get used. Using them crosses or erases a "red line" that may force/demand a response. It might also be seen as a precedent in other areas by other players. Much like failure to respond mightily and severely and multi-nationally to the use of chemical weapons in the mid-east could well have been a mistake of global impact. What about when America used nukes? Were we not civilized? What do you think? When we used them, we were the only nation with them. Singular. When they were theoretically only in the hands of a very few more nations (plural), no one used them. It seems likely there has been proliferation beyond the few nations of the Cold War era. Five including China through 1964 or so. Proxy wars not withstanding, only Russia/USSR and China have fought each other and neither used them. I don't know that all of the potential post China added nuke powers feel the same sorts of restraints. I think if Russia uses a Tactical Nuke on the battlefield, like a very small one on a village or major command center.. it will open the door for other countries to consider the use of them in the future and future conflicts. I believe once one is used, it will kill any taboo against using them and we will enter a new world of future warfare |
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Posted: 9/30/2022 2:31:04 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Great video as usual from 1420. Lots of good anecdotal information there. There are still decent people there who know what’s up. Problem is getting them to act to save themselves and their nation. As usual, we see the main problem with pro-war Russian opinion - it’s intellectual garbage. Its not even that it’s bigoted, it’s just garbage. The guy in the gray jacket pretty much epitomizes the rolling non-sequitor of political justification for the war. You could string together random words and phrases and have an equally cogent argument. At least in this one, the interviewer doesn’t let the dude off easy. Extremely obvious questions raise insoluble problems with the guy’s take on the war. And he knew it too. These "man on the street" videos are incredibly useful for Americans to study. We aren't that bad off yet, but we are really, really close; the brainwashing and conditioning just looks different. The Russian methods rely more upon brute force, the American methods rely more upon "appeals to virtue". Russia is way poorer and more violent than the US anyway, so that's part of the reason why it works for them, but it wouldn't work for the US...for now. The Russian HMFIC are accustomed to ruling through relative scarcity; American HMFIC are accustomed to ruling with relative plenty. Both are powerful forces, they just need to be channeled in specific ways. But we need to pay careful attention to this, because it is only a matter of time and circumstances that makes the US populace that much different from the Russian populace. IMHO, we all need to work very hard to gently, carefully, and persistently, awaken our neighbors to the uncomfortable truths around them. Start with "kitchen table" issues, such as whatever the fuck happens to us during a power outage or natural disaster, and then expand that thinking to other areas. Point being: If you are the "gun guy" on your block, but no one knows or cares about it, then you might just get your secret wish, and die alone in a pile of brass.  It's annoying and it is hard, but you have got to build a network around you now. No man is an island. 
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IRL
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Posted: 9/30/2022 3:19:04 AM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 9/30/2022 3:37:12 AM EDT
[#50]
Any thoughts on the reality of this video?
.  Failed To Load Title |
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