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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:18:55 AM EDT
[#1]
Finally caught up. Morning everyone.
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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:20:56 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: You have to remember, there is profit in opposing war/militarism in American Politics. It has always been this way; the first President to get elected by promising to cut Defense spending and "keep us out of Foreign Conflicts" was Thomas Jefferson, who criticized John Adams for getting the US involved in the "Quasi-War" with France and promised to cut the US Navy down to a gunboat-equipped coast defense force. In both Trump and DeSantis's calculations, they will not have to make any binding policy decisions regarding Ukraine, they can say anything they want (within Reason) but not have to take any concrete actions for at least 21 months This is an eternity in both Warfare and Politics. To put this in perspective, 21 months is roughly half of the US Participation of the US in WWII, 3/5ths of the Korean War and the Mexican-American War, 4/5ths of the War of 1812, and longer than the US Participation in WWI, Desert Storm, The War of 1898, the Boxer Rebellion, etc. So, it is not only a good idea to blow "hot/cold" on the Ukraine War, it is almost an imperative. Remember as well that, between the parties, proportionally a lot more Republican-leaning parents got to send their sons and daughters to war in Iraq and Afghanistan than from the Prep schools in the tony suburbs and the DC areas. Also, among Republicans there is an element of Payback and Opportunity; Payback to the Democrats dating back to the time of Nixon for all the times that Republicans were painted as warmongers and killers for executing wars that were often declared on a bipartisan basis. Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, etc, made serious hay blaming George Bush for both 9/11 and the resulting wars (giving the Clintons, the Deep State/Intelligence Agencies, the INS, and and virtually everyone else a pass) The Republican's goal is to do to the Democrats what was done to the Republicans in the 2005-08 period, while promising Joel and Molly Burger in Zanesville, Ohio that they will "solve" this Ukraine thing so their son in the Marines won't get sent to fight in Ukraine and won't end up like their older son who had some problems settling back to something approaching a "normal" life after his tours in Kandahar and Al Anbar. Further, look at all the stuff that the Democrats extorted from the Bush II administration during the later stages once the war became unpopular. In their world, the war will either be nearly over (one way or the other) or hopelessly stalemated by the time they have to make any binding decisions, and knowing the Biden maladministration will clearly screw this up in some way, they would literally be trusting Joe Biden to do the right thing in Ukraine, and not taking all the credit. So, it would be political malpractice for anyone who will potentially face Joe Biden in the 2024 election to support the "Slow Joe Slow Roll" policy, where we send billions to keep the war going but not the right assets to win it effectively. I think this is excellent analysis. The American electorate is ill-informed, disinterested, weary and very sinical of DC, and all their past BS. I do feel that the war in Ukraine is unique in many ways, probably foremost among them is a uniquely good and worthy alley (Ukraine) and a uniquely BAD (in every way) enemy (Russia). The only thing that compares is WWII in this context. And if some politician was on record, back in 1939, 40, 41, etc of being agnostic about Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany, that would be hung around their political necks for ever. I'm worried about an otherwise fantastic Republican candidate like DeSantis coming on board to late. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:24:20 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: They’re around but got bad reps for having dudes not understanding the gas system. Lots of dudes complained that they only shot single fire. Reality is they had either caked gas plugs or grenade launcher settings tripped. They are in the Fl armory. Many got run away with during the great stampede to get out in march. I remember one complaint was they came with very few mags. Maybe 1-2 per gun. But I could be confusing this with another imported gun. Honestly, if I was there, I'd want a 74 in the best shape possible to scrounge mags and ammo more easily. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:27:03 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By shark101au: Welcome to stupid America, obviously this guy has never seen a map of the world  I wouldnt say "stupid". I bet some gear will go by ship, probably going through intermediaries. But if Russia really NEEDS something like chips, NVG's, thermals etc, it will probably go by plane, train, or truck direct from China. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:36:23 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I remember one complaint was they came with very few mags. Maybe 1-2 per gun. But I could be confusing this with another imported gun. STANAG mags shouldn't have been impossible to find in a country producing AR15s and Tavors. I remember very early videos of UA police antiterror unit(name?) using AR pattern rifles and some foreign volunteers, possibly unaffiliated with the Legion, with CZ Brens. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:39:58 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I will say that the VOG grenades seemed MUCH more effective than the older F1 we see most often now. Too few fragments inefficiently launched with much going straight into the ground. I bet they are much easier to work with though since in the worst case one falls while loading onto the drone, you have plenty of time to toss it into a grenade sump or run. With the impact detonated VOG... |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:43:03 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
”Prigozhin loses ties with Russian officials in the regions, in the Krasnodar Territory they refuse to bury the dead "Wagnerians" — Institute for the Study of War (ISW). In particular, according to Prigozhin, the Goryachy Klyuch authorities in the Krasnodar Territory refused to hide mercenaries in the city. The mayor of the city, Serhii Belopolskyi, said that local residents do not consider the Goryachy Klyuch resort "an appropriate place for the burial of Wagner's fighters." Prigozhin also made public a telephone conversation in which Belopolsky told a representative of the PMC that the governor of the Krasnodar region, Veniamin Kondratiev, had deprived him of his authority to cooperate with "Wagner". Wagner's servicemen also released a video message with threats to the local administration, in which they claimed that they would "personally solve the issue" with the administration if it did not respond to the appeal. Since Wagner's mercenaries previously used training and burial sites in the Krasnodar region without objection from the local authorities, the current situation may indicate that Prigozhin's previous long-term arrangements with the regional authorities are now rapidly weakening. Previously, he already quarreled with the officials of St. Petersburg due to the similar refusal of the latter to bury the dead mercenaries in the same cemetery with ordinary Russian soldiers, ISW notes. ZN.UA” ”A curious situation is developing in the balneological resort town of Goryachy Klyuch in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, between the town's administration and PMC Wagner. The town's administration denied the previously approved request for the group to bury mercenaries killed in Ukraine, claiming that the journalists who come to report on the burial are ruining the image of the resort and its direct leadership. Earlier, Prigozhin published several audio messaging condemning the town administration. And today, GREY ZONE, Prigozhin's mouthpiece Telegram channel posted this video with alleged Wagner mercenaries addressing the town administration. As you can see, they use rather intimidating language.” I guess the Wagner reputation has gone from 'dangerous yet professional hired killers' to 'dangerous convicts with AIDS who rape and murder civilians'. Kinda like the reputation of Russia. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:50:58 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Video is just a Ukrainian drone counting confirmed Russian kills in an area.
According to the BBC that was 0 KIA and the headless corpse counting as 1 WIA... |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:54:32 AM EDT
[Last Edit: gentlemanfarmer]
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Alex9661: STANAG mags shouldn't have been impossible to find in a country producing AR15s and Tavors. I remember very early videos of UA police antiterror unit(name?) using AR pattern rifles and some foreign volunteers, possibly unaffiliated with the Legion, with CZ Brens. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Alex9661: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I remember one complaint was they came with very few mags. Maybe 1-2 per gun. But I could be confusing this with another imported gun. STANAG mags shouldn't have been impossible to find in a country producing AR15s and Tavors. I remember very early videos of UA police antiterror unit(name?) using AR pattern rifles and some foreign volunteers, possibly unaffiliated with the Legion, with CZ Brens. Ar mags were a tough find for 5-7 months. Believe me I know. They are still needed. Even 74 mags can periodically run low. Lots of reasons for this but close combat, combat losses, fire etc eat up mags and guns. New guns coming in with 2-8 depending, when you want 20 or more. You can get 74 mags cheaply made domestically that are supposedly comm/bulg clone. Others were made that work but almost artisan built. I can’t vouch for the bulgy clones but others do. The springs scare me because I’m not sure what’s used but I imagine if you can mold 74 mags, stamp followers etc, you can get good spring steel. Ar mags can be found but prices are a lot for a guy getting 300$ a month. The only people that had significant amounts were pre 2022 SSO police types, occasional sports shooter (not many). They had them in stores pre 2022 but every single one bought by day 10 and were happily bought at scalper prices. 30-40$ for a pmag. Not sure what price or types for sale now but lancers were 30$ a few weeks ago. Still stuff like nato stanag are not cheap like here. Wouldn’t call it a huge issue but it’s on our list of requested items. Harder to get from here to there (long lead time) but it’s done. No domestic production I’m aware of yet and I wouldn’t risk it unless it was a proven company. Israeli stuff pops up and Hera too. Still rather have a gen3 pmag or lancer. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:55:03 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: A nice thread to give you an idea of how various anti tank guided missiles work with their guidance systems.
For some reason these are always age restricted. At least I can still watch people blowing up... |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 10:58:52 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: That is a very likely possibility of DeSantis's motives (and possibly Trump's). Effectively you are saying that they are able to take this position without having to own the consequences on a topic that will likey change significantly by the time either would have to deal with it (along with public perceptions). Unfortunately the consequence of the leaders of the party staking out this position at this time is it makes the passage or support in the house of further aid much more difficult (indeed the congressmen will appear to be going against the potential future leadership). This has real consequences in the current and near future that could dramatically impact the outcome of this war. The amount of money we are spending seems like a lot to most but Colin Kahl has described the real tradeoffs that are having to be made (Feb 24, 2023 War on the Rocks podcast, Feb 28, 2023 House Armed Services hearing). There are those in congress that are pressuring to do "more" such as F16 - which I think that is great as long as they also pass separate funds to pay for it, but it can't be at the expense of ammo/missiles and immediate critical needs for Ukraine (estimates I've seen is current authorization will likely be burned down by summer with just these most critical needs). I honestly think money for F16's would be better spent ramping faster the industrial base (similar to operation warp speed where contractual guarantees were in place to derisk investments by industry) - I think this could have more of a deterrent impact on both Russia and China. It is disappointing to see how slowly Europe is reacting as well - i.e. France arguing over whether EU funds can be used to purchase shells made outside of EU, etc. I agree there should be incentivization of the EU manufacturing base but not at the expense of speed to get munitions to Ukraine. I do think we've had too much discussion of politics and side topics in this otherwise very informative thread. That said, I think a clinical discussion of the potential motivation and consequences of politician's stances (possibly 2nd or 3rd order impacts) on this topic does have a (limited) place. Conversely, it could motivate Xiden (his handlers) to increase the aid so they can secure a win before the next election. Or it could likewise motivate the Europeans into helping more now, fearing that the US may back out after 24. I personally dont think any new Republican POTUS would let Ukraine fall or even limit aid, but who really knows. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:01:33 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: They are not prepared for really serious propositions. To start with, they would have to accept the treaties they signed with Ukraine in the 90s respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. IOW, they'd have to leave ALL of Ukraine, including Crimea. They'd have to accept Ukraine's eventual membership in NATO. General PavelFella (@AlesNovis) March 18, 2023 Maybe they are offering one of those concessions. I doubt it. And they probably know Ukraine would not accept a minor concession and Russia hopes they look like warmongers for refusing and lose some support. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:02:21 AM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
LOL Yes Ukraine is really serious you need to withdraw to your borders to show good faith for talks. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:12:49 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DouglasQuaid: It may seem funny that some are talking of arresting Putin. Of course, he would never allow himself to be put in that situation if he was still president . Although unlikely, imagine a situation where Putin is overthrown in a coup and arrested by the new Russian government. Putin could be "extradited" to Europe as part of some kind of peace treaty if the new government was friendly to the West. You never know, the last 3 years have been full of events that seemed very unlikely just a few years ago. If Putin is overthrown by a coup he will be shot by his own side before anybody gets near him. He will die at the hands of his own supporters. There will be no extradition of a dead body. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:15:34 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: For some reason these are always age restricted. At least I can still watch people blowing up... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: A nice thread to give you an idea of how various anti tank guided missiles work with their guidance systems.
For some reason these are always age restricted. At least I can still watch people blowing up... That's a really bad ass article.. ton of informative info. You need to get you a Twitter account |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:21:49 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By swede1986: If there's a coup in the Kremlin, big if, Putin is going to end up falling from a window. He's much too dangerous for anyone to keep around, regardless of who the new leader is. Wonder if they have anyone that could do what putin has not been able to do? I want to see him gone, but I'd hate to see someone in that office that can do a better job of managing their invasion of ukraine. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:23:50 AM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: 2 hrs ago:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrlAAFRXgAAjJT9?format=png&name=small So that’s what happened to Russia’s secret reserve of best forces yet to come? LOL! They were already used up in Syria. BOOM! |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:27:35 AM EDT
[#18]
 You can now explore #Russian tactical symbols: https://ukr.warspotting.net/reading/tactical_symbols/ With their purpose somewhat similar to friend/foe signs we've covered earlier, they predate #Ukraine️ invasion and make up much more extensive variety ...or mess, depending on how close you look into it. Russia: Tactical symbols |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:32:30 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By anonimovaca: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/11v8ovt/russian_take_out_4_ypr765_from_netherlands/ Russia destroys four YPR-765. Looks to be the aftermath of the video that shows them moving forwards and backwards. Video is graphic.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xO4_RKb97TkPossibly part of the same set of vehicles. One vehicle looks to be stopped already, one is hit while moving and soldiers dismount. Edit to add: Previous video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVUVCApf5GoI cant say Im super surprised, at all, and my comments on "IFVs used as tanks" is back 1000 pages or so. Dont send an IFV to do a tanks job. Cant assume that there are no ATGMs without a lot of drone coordinatioon. That being said, just to point out, the title of that reddit page is four knocked out, only shows one. Just sayin... |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:32:39 AM EDT
[#20]
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:36:56 AM EDT
[#21]
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NC, USA
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:43:12 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: For some reason these are always age restricted. At least I can still watch people blowing up... hey Itchy-- in the link address -- if you replace the 'twitter.com' with 'nitter.net' (leave all the link gobbly gook behind that) you will be able to view the content https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1637441083633180674 doesn't work with all twitter links -- but a lot of them |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:51:41 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74HC: Obviously, that guy doesn't know. He's mostly pontificating with other china/russia news that doesn't answer the question he originally states. That question is whether china is giving lethal aid to russia. The skeptic in me has learned never judge a politician by his words, but by his actions. Since it's very easy for china to hide lethal aid to russia, I say they probably are to some degree. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:52:20 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By johnh57: Wonder if they have anyone that could do what putin has not been able to do? I want to see him gone, but I'd hate to see someone in that office that can do a better job of managing their invasion of ukraine. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By johnh57: Originally Posted By swede1986: If there's a coup in the Kremlin, big if, Putin is going to end up falling from a window. He's much too dangerous for anyone to keep around, regardless of who the new leader is. Wonder if they have anyone that could do what putin has not been able to do? I want to see him gone, but I'd hate to see someone in that office that can do a better job of managing their invasion of ukraine. More than likely, if Putin takes a round to the back of the head, Russia will withdraw completely from Ukraine and publicly blame Putin the Psychopath. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:53:01 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote History10 year old pic, maybe even older. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:55:14 AM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:55:53 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: A nice thread to give you an idea of how various anti tank guided missiles work with their guidance systems.
This is Gold. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:56:35 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Wow! Is this the first day with over 20 tanks AND over 20 AFV?? And with 710 KIA that is a lot of armor. Lots of boom! |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 3/19/2023 11:57:33 AM EDT
[#29]
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Posted: 3/19/2023 12:03:05 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: Ar mags were a tough find for 5-7 months. Believe me I know. They are still needed. Even 74 mags can periodically run low. Lots of reasons for this but close combat, combat losses, fire etc eat up mags and guns. New guns coming in with 2-8 depending, when you want 20 or more. You can get 74 mags cheaply made domestically that are supposedly comm/bulg clone. Others were made that work but almost artisan built. I can’t vouch for the bulgy clones but others do. The springs scare me because I’m not sure what’s used but I imagine if you can mold 74 mags, stamp followers etc, you can get good spring steel. Ar mags can be found but prices are a lot for a guy getting 300$ a month. The only people that had significant amounts were pre 2022 SSO police types, occasional sports shooter (not many). They had them in stores pre 2022 but every single one bought by day 10 and were happily bought at scalper prices. 30-40$ for a pmag. Not sure what price or types for sale now but lancers were 30$ a few weeks ago. Still stuff like nato stanag are not cheap like here. Wouldn’t call it a huge issue but it’s on our list of requested items. Harder to get from here to there (long lead time) but it’s done. No domestic production I’m aware of yet and I wouldn’t risk it unless it was a proven company. Israeli stuff pops up and Hera too. Still rather have a gen3 pmag or lancer. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: Originally Posted By Alex9661: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I remember one complaint was they came with very few mags. Maybe 1-2 per gun. But I could be confusing this with another imported gun. STANAG mags shouldn't have been impossible to find in a country producing AR15s and Tavors. I remember very early videos of UA police antiterror unit(name?) using AR pattern rifles and some foreign volunteers, possibly unaffiliated with the Legion, with CZ Brens. Ar mags were a tough find for 5-7 months. Believe me I know. They are still needed. Even 74 mags can periodically run low. Lots of reasons for this but close combat, combat losses, fire etc eat up mags and guns. New guns coming in with 2-8 depending, when you want 20 or more. You can get 74 mags cheaply made domestically that are supposedly comm/bulg clone. Others were made that work but almost artisan built. I can’t vouch for the bulgy clones but others do. The springs scare me because I’m not sure what’s used but I imagine if you can mold 74 mags, stamp followers etc, you can get good spring steel. Ar mags can be found but prices are a lot for a guy getting 300$ a month. The only people that had significant amounts were pre 2022 SSO police types, occasional sports shooter (not many). They had them in stores pre 2022 but every single one bought by day 10 and were happily bought at scalper prices. 30-40$ for a pmag. Not sure what price or types for sale now but lancers were 30$ a few weeks ago. Still stuff like nato stanag are not cheap like here. Wouldn’t call it a huge issue but it’s on our list of requested items. Harder to get from here to there (long lead time) but it’s done. No domestic production I’m aware of yet and I wouldn’t risk it unless it was a proven company. Israeli stuff pops up and Hera too. Still rather have a gen3 pmag or lancer. The US sucked up a shit ton of Ukrainian sourced 74 mags. I had over a hundred at one point. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 12:11:03 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Finally caught up. Morning everyone.
lol I have 3 cats. Bring the house down. 
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Posted: 3/19/2023 12:18:39 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: That is a very likely possibility of DeSantis's motives (and possibly Trump's). Effectively you are saying that they are able to take this position without having to own the consequences on a topic that will likey change significantly by the time either would have to deal with it (along with public perceptions). Unfortunately the consequence of the leaders of the party staking out this position at this time is it makes the passage or support in the house of further aid much more difficult (indeed the congressmen will appear to be going against the potential future leadership). This has real consequences in the current and near future that could dramatically impact the outcome of this war. The amount of money we are spending seems like a lot to most but Colin Kahl has described the real tradeoffs that are having to be made (Feb 24, 2023 War on the Rocks podcast, Feb 28, 2023 House Armed Services hearing). There are those in congress that are pressuring to do "more" such as F16 - which I think that is great as long as they also pass separate funds to pay for it, but it can't be at the expense of ammo/missiles and immediate critical needs for Ukraine (estimates I've seen is current authorization will likely be burned down by summer with just these most critical needs). I honestly think money for F16's would be better spent ramping faster the industrial base (similar to operation warp speed where contractual guarantees were in place to derisk investments by industry) - I think this could have more of a deterrent impact on both Russia and China. It is disappointing to see how slowly Europe is reacting as well - i.e. France arguing over whether EU funds can be used to purchase shells made outside of EU, etc. I agree there should be incentivization of the EU manufacturing base but not at the expense of speed to get munitions to Ukraine. I do think we've had too much discussion of politics and side topics in this otherwise very informative thread. That said, I think a clinical discussion of the potential motivation and consequences of politician's stances (possibly 2nd or 3rd order impacts) on this topic does have a (limited) place. Well shoot man, if all of the discussion was as quality as your post, I don't think anybody would mind at all. Very thoughtful, thank you! IMO on the F-16 issue, one way to sidestep the manufacturing bottlenecks is to get private industry involved. We talked about Flying Tigers II a few pages back, and I think that idea really has merit, for the same reasons that private adversary air and tanker companies are useful--they have their own aircraft for the most part, and you can flip a switch to turn them on or off, unlike with the armed services. If only our politicians were that brave. 
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Posted: 3/19/2023 12:35:35 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74HC: Are these tweets recapping old news, or is Turkey just now getting around to it? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74HC: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Recapping in only a few days of news, so it seems they are moving in a certain direction recently. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 12:36:52 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Finally caught up. Morning everyone.
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Posted: 3/19/2023 12:42:18 PM EDT
[#35]
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Posted: 3/19/2023 12:43:13 PM EDT
[#36]
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Posted: 3/19/2023 12:49:11 PM EDT
[#37]
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Posted: 3/19/2023 12:58:46 PM EDT
[#38]
Perun gives us another great video.
 Russia's Winter Offensive in Ukraine - From Bakhmut to Vuhledar, outcomes, lessons, and costs |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 1:00:47 PM EDT
[#39]
Nice troll.
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Posted: 3/19/2023 1:06:30 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: More than likely, if Putin takes a round to the back of the head, Russia will withdraw completely from Ukraine and publicly blame Putin the Psychopath. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By johnh57: Originally Posted By swede1986: If there's a coup in the Kremlin, big if, Putin is going to end up falling from a window. He's much too dangerous for anyone to keep around, regardless of who the new leader is. Wonder if they have anyone that could do what putin has not been able to do? I want to see him gone, but I'd hate to see someone in that office that can do a better job of managing their invasion of ukraine. More than likely, if Putin takes a round to the back of the head, Russia will withdraw completely from Ukraine and publicly blame Putin the Psychopath. Maybe, but I wouldn't count on that. Maintaining the image of an "existential threat" to the motherland might be necessary for the new regime as well. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 1:30:25 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By swede1986: Maybe, but I wouldn't count on that. Maintaining the image of an "existential threat" to the motherland might be necessary for the new regime as well. Watching 1420’s Man on the Street interviews doesn’t give me any hope that a post-Putin Russia will be any less murderous thieving rapist than it is now. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 1:38:02 PM EDT
[#42]
I'm seeing multiple vids of Ukraine soldiers loading mags by hand, one round at a time.
Perhaps we should throw in and donate a bunch of Maglula AR and AK speed loaders? What do you think?  
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USA
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Posted: 3/19/2023 1:44:29 PM EDT
[#43]
Haven’t caught up, but wanted to follow up on earlier tweets like this that have been posted. Click and read |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 1:51:06 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryLarpers? |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 1:53:34 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: That is a very likely possibility of DeSantis's motives (and possibly Trump's). Effectively you are saying that they are able to take this position without having to own the consequences on a topic that will likey change significantly by the time either would have to deal with it (along with public perceptions). Unfortunately the consequence of the leaders of the party staking out this position at this time is it makes the passage or support in the house of further aid much more difficult (indeed the congressmen will appear to be going against the potential future leadership). This has real consequences in the current and near future that could dramatically impact the outcome of this war. The amount of money we are spending seems like a lot to most but Colin Kahl has described the real tradeoffs that are having to be made (Feb 24, 2023 War on the Rocks podcast, Feb 28, 2023 House Armed Services hearing). There are those in congress that are pressuring to do "more" such as F16 - which I think that is great as long as they also pass separate funds to pay for it, but it can't be at the expense of ammo/missiles and immediate critical needs for Ukraine (estimates I've seen is current authorization will likely be burned down by summer with just these most critical needs). I honestly think money for F16's would be better spent ramping faster the industrial base (similar to operation warp speed where contractual guarantees were in place to derisk investments by industry) - I think this could have more of a deterrent impact on both Russia and China. It is disappointing to see how slowly Europe is reacting as well - i.e. France arguing over whether EU funds can be used to purchase shells made outside of EU, etc. I agree there should be incentivization of the EU manufacturing base but not at the expense of speed to get munitions to Ukraine. I do think we've had too much discussion of politics and side topics in this otherwise very informative thread. That said, I think a clinical discussion of the potential motivation and consequences of politician's stances (possibly 2nd or 3rd order impacts) on this topic does have a (limited) place. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nomansland: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: You have to remember, there is profit in opposing war/militarism in American Politics. It has always been this way; the first President to get elected by promising to cut Defense spending and "keep us out of Foreign Conflicts" was Thomas Jefferson, who criticized John Adams for getting the US involved in the "Quasi-War" with France and promised to cut the US Navy down to a gunboat-equipped coast defense force. In both Trump and DeSantis's calculations, they will not have to make any binding policy decisions regarding Ukraine, they can say anything they want (within Reason) but not have to take any concrete actions for at least 21 months This is an eternity in both Warfare and Politics. To put this in perspective, 21 months is roughly half of the US Participation of the US in WWII, 3/5ths of the Korean War and the Mexican-American War, 4/5ths of the War of 1812, and longer than the US Participation in WWI, Desert Storm, The War of 1898, the Boxer Rebellion, etc. So, it is not only a good idea to blow "hot/cold" on the Ukraine War, it is almost an imperative. Remember as well that, between the parties, proportionally a lot more Republican-leaning parents got to send their sons and daughters to war in Iraq and Afghanistan than from the Prep schools in the tony suburbs and the DC areas. Also, among Republicans there is an element of Payback and Opportunity; Payback to the Democrats dating back to the time of Nixon for all the times that Republicans were painted as warmongers and killers for executing wars that were often declared on a bipartisan basis. Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, etc, made serious hay blaming George Bush for both 9/11 and the resulting wars (giving the Clintons, the Deep State/Intelligence Agencies, the INS, and and virtually everyone else a pass) The Republican's goal is to do to the Democrats what was done to the Republicans in the 2005-08 period, while promising Joel and Molly Burger in Zanesville, Ohio that they will "solve" this Ukraine thing so their son in the Marines won't get sent to fight in Ukraine and won't end up like their older son who had some problems settling back to something approaching a "normal" life after his tours in Kandahar and Al Anbar. Further, look at all the stuff that the Democrats extorted from the Bush II administration during the later stages once the war became unpopular. In their world, the war will either be nearly over (one way or the other) or hopelessly stalemated by the time they have to make any binding decisions, and knowing the Biden maladministration will clearly screw this up in some way, they would literally be trusting Joe Biden to do the right thing in Ukraine, and not taking all the credit. So, it would be political malpractice for anyone who will potentially face Joe Biden in the 2024 election to support the "Slow Joe Slow Roll" policy, where we send billions to keep the war going but not the right assets to win it effectively. That is a very likely possibility of DeSantis's motives (and possibly Trump's). Effectively you are saying that they are able to take this position without having to own the consequences on a topic that will likey change significantly by the time either would have to deal with it (along with public perceptions). Unfortunately the consequence of the leaders of the party staking out this position at this time is it makes the passage or support in the house of further aid much more difficult (indeed the congressmen will appear to be going against the potential future leadership). This has real consequences in the current and near future that could dramatically impact the outcome of this war. The amount of money we are spending seems like a lot to most but Colin Kahl has described the real tradeoffs that are having to be made (Feb 24, 2023 War on the Rocks podcast, Feb 28, 2023 House Armed Services hearing). There are those in congress that are pressuring to do "more" such as F16 - which I think that is great as long as they also pass separate funds to pay for it, but it can't be at the expense of ammo/missiles and immediate critical needs for Ukraine (estimates I've seen is current authorization will likely be burned down by summer with just these most critical needs). I honestly think money for F16's would be better spent ramping faster the industrial base (similar to operation warp speed where contractual guarantees were in place to derisk investments by industry) - I think this could have more of a deterrent impact on both Russia and China. It is disappointing to see how slowly Europe is reacting as well - i.e. France arguing over whether EU funds can be used to purchase shells made outside of EU, etc. I agree there should be incentivization of the EU manufacturing base but not at the expense of speed to get munitions to Ukraine. I do think we've had too much discussion of politics and side topics in this otherwise very informative thread. That said, I think a clinical discussion of the potential motivation and consequences of politician's stances (possibly 2nd or 3rd order impacts) on this topic does have a (limited) place. I don't like it either, but that is the way the game is played in Weimar America. Looking at it another way, the Democrats gained control of both houses of Congress in 2006 based on their opposition to the wars, and Americans resoundingly rejected the John McCain approach to Foreign Policy in 2008. Additionally, the Democrats did not lose the Senate despite the Afghan debacle in 2022. John McCain and the "Never-Trumpers" also managed to destroy consensus on a lot of topics within the Republican Party between 2016 and 2020, including foreign policy. The Democrats big failure, and they are just now beginning to realize it, is that "Break Shit" as a policy has some significantly negative 2nd- and 3rd- order effects. A lot of folks who "played the game" and tried to do what they thought was best have lost all credibility, and no one conservative-leaning wants their kid to come home in a box or see inflation kill what's left of their lifestyle or believes a word they are told by the self-serving hacks, substandard mediocrities, or petulant emo adolescents who seem to be in charge of our government and major institutions. Calling everyone in Middle America a homophobic racist, starting an epidemic then overreacting, wrecking the economy, ruining large swaths of Urban America with "peaceful protests" and sending over 5000 kids (largely from said Middle America) to die in wars and then saying "nevermind" has consequences, and the chickens are coming home to roost. I think everyone who hasn't completely lost their soul or their marbles wants Ukraine to win, but no one trusts our "Deep State", military, or the Current Presidential figurehead to do the right thing, and it has gotten to the point that no one trusts our "betters" to tell us the truth about anything, including Ukraine. The current maladministration policy of announcing multi-billions in aid then slow-rolling the delivery of any weapons that can significantly change the battlefield metrics also hasn't helped matters in the least. I too am frustrated, as I am old enough to know what right is supposed to look like, but we have to accept the world as it is before we can begin to fix it. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 1:53:44 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By doc540: I'm seeing multiple vids of Ukraine soldiers loading mags by hand, one round at a time. Perhaps we should throw in and donate a bunch of Maglula AR and AK speed loaders? What do you think? https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/183309/maglulaAR1-2751852.png https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/183309/maglulaAK1-2751853.jpg Send some over. We appreciate anything sent this way. Small items like than would be great for mailing to troops with our care packages. We have two great members here that already sent two packages our way. I'll post photos when they make it here.  |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 1:59:09 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: Watching 1420’s Man on the Street interviews doesn’t give me any hope that a post-Putin Russia will be any less murderous thieving rapist than it is now. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: Originally Posted By swede1986: Maybe, but I wouldn't count on that. Maintaining the image of an "existential threat" to the motherland might be necessary for the new regime as well. Watching 1420’s Man on the Street interviews doesn’t give me any hope that a post-Putin Russia will be any less murderous thieving rapist than it is now. I feel the same, it is such an ingrained problem that it would take generations to change. |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 1:59:28 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Easterner]
[#48]
Musical intermission
 SKOFKA - ?? ??????? ? ?? ????????  Ukrainian Army: ?? ? ???? ??????? ?????? [REMIX]  JKLN - Welcome to Ukraine Metal version (Clouding bootleg) |
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Posted: 3/19/2023 2:02:36 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: Well shoot man, if all of the discussion was as quality as your post, I don't think anybody would mind at all. Very thoughtful, thank you! IMO on the F-16 issue, one way to sidestep the manufacturing bottlenecks is to get private industry involved. We talked about Flying Tigers II a few pages back, and I think that idea really has merit, for the same reasons that private adversary air and tanker companies are useful--they have their own aircraft for the most part, and you can flip a switch to turn them on or off, unlike with the armed services. If only our politicians were that brave. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GTLandser: Originally Posted By nomansland: That is a very likely possibility of DeSantis's motives (and possibly Trump's). Effectively you are saying that they are able to take this position without having to own the consequences on a topic that will likey change significantly by the time either would have to deal with it (along with public perceptions). Unfortunately the consequence of the leaders of the party staking out this position at this time is it makes the passage or support in the house of further aid much more difficult (indeed the congressmen will appear to be going against the potential future leadership). This has real consequences in the current and near future that could dramatically impact the outcome of this war. The amount of money we are spending seems like a lot to most but Colin Kahl has described the real tradeoffs that are having to be made (Feb 24, 2023 War on the Rocks podcast, Feb 28, 2023 House Armed Services hearing). There are those in congress that are pressuring to do "more" such as F16 - which I think that is great as long as they also pass separate funds to pay for it, but it can't be at the expense of ammo/missiles and immediate critical needs for Ukraine (estimates I've seen is current authorization will likely be burned down by summer with just these most critical needs). I honestly think money for F16's would be better spent ramping faster the industrial base (similar to operation warp speed where contractual guarantees were in place to derisk investments by industry) - I think this could have more of a deterrent impact on both Russia and China. It is disappointing to see how slowly Europe is reacting as well - i.e. France arguing over whether EU funds can be used to purchase shells made outside of EU, etc. I agree there should be incentivization of the EU manufacturing base but not at the expense of speed to get munitions to Ukraine. I do think we've had too much discussion of politics and side topics in this otherwise very informative thread. That said, I think a clinical discussion of the potential motivation and consequences of politician's stances (possibly 2nd or 3rd order impacts) on this topic does have a (limited) place. Well shoot man, if all of the discussion was as quality as your post, I don't think anybody would mind at all. Very thoughtful, thank you! IMO on the F-16 issue, one way to sidestep the manufacturing bottlenecks is to get private industry involved. We talked about Flying Tigers II a few pages back, and I think that idea really has merit, for the same reasons that private adversary air and tanker companies are useful--they have their own aircraft for the most part, and you can flip a switch to turn them on or off, unlike with the armed services. If only our politicians were that brave. If they did get something like that together, I hope I'm on someone's rolodex as a possible airspace deconfliction manager or targeting guy!
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Posted: 3/19/2023 2:02:45 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Easterner: Send some over. We appreciate anything sent this way. Small items like than would be great for mailing to troops with our care packages. We have two great members here that already sent two packages our way. I'll post photos when they make it here. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Easterner: Originally Posted By doc540: I'm seeing multiple vids of Ukraine soldiers loading mags by hand, one round at a time. Perhaps we should throw in and donate a bunch of Maglula AR and AK speed loaders? What do you think? https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/183309/maglulaAR1-2751852.png https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/183309/maglulaAK1-2751853.jpg Send some over. We appreciate anything sent this way. Small items like than would be great for mailing to troops with our care packages. We have two great members here that already sent two packages our way. I'll post photos when they make it here. This is great to hear and a great idea doc540! |
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