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Posted: 5/14/2023 9:26:41 PM EDT
[#1]
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Posted: 5/14/2023 9:28:55 PM EDT
[#2]
Ghost-posting
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Posted: 5/14/2023 9:30:48 PM EDT
[#3]
ISW assessment for May 14th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-14-2023 |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 9:33:50 PM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 5/14/2023 9:34:41 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: From from the same company that makes Switchblades. Bigger! 185km range and 13kg payload.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_0824-2816941.jpg The Jump 20 drone has a maximum takeoff weight of 97,5 kilograms, a payload weight of 13,6 kilograms, a length of 2,9 meters, and a wingspan of 5,7 meters. The drone can operate for 14 hours in a row, according to Militarnyi. The operational range of the Jump 20 is up to 185 kilometers; it can reach a height of 5,100 meters. I worked with these some years ago and was impressed by the flight system and quality for the price. Should serve them just fine in the ISR role. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 5/14/2023 9:44:18 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: I actually doubt it. That ammo dump has been there since 1949. People ask “why won’t they use EVERYTHING they have”? It’s because some of the bombs or rockets can’t be used on ANY fielded modern system or are dangerously u stable they would kill the weapon operators. Google earth shows the storage and berms there for years. I HIGHLY doubt modern weapons of any significance were stored there. It would be too obvious and dumb (as in I doubt the western “advisors” would let them). Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: Originally Posted By stgdz: So these two massive explosions now this month. As much as I hate to admit it, this is likely a lot of NATO hardware there. Yeah the Russians probably knew about it but the ukranians probably thought it was safe. These areas were likely used because they met storage requirements for ammo and other stuff. They still have other stuff but probably lost a significant amount. Shit I actually doubt it. That ammo dump has been there since 1949. People ask “why won’t they use EVERYTHING they have”? It’s because some of the bombs or rockets can’t be used on ANY fielded modern system or are dangerously u stable they would kill the weapon operators. Google earth shows the storage and berms there for years. I HIGHLY doubt modern weapons of any significance were stored there. It would be too obvious and dumb (as in I doubt the western “advisors” would let them).  KIRKUK AMMO DUMP EXPLOSIONS KIRKUK, IRAQ 2004 Iraqis got a 107 or 122mm rocket into the ammo dump and for 24hrs tons of old Iraqi munitions popped off. Many were too unstable to move. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/14/2023 9:46:04 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Yeah its a paradox. If they were smart and realized that their 190K (?) troops would not be enough and started mobilizing maybe they also realize it's just not worth it. And all their lies about "this is just another exercise" during the troop buildup would have been more transparently seen as bullshit. Although I doubt the West would have done much more. We didnt even start the sanctions until after the invasion. One thing I am certain of is that if Putin could have seen the result of his invasion, he would have never even spoken another word about Ukraine and forgot his dreams of empire building. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Capta: I think you have valid points but there is always the reaction to consider. The west (and Ukraine) largely dismissed the idea of an actual, all-out invasion because they knew very well that Russia didn't have the troop numbers necessary to invade. So a large part of the weak and delayed reaction (both in Ukraine and the west). was getting past that mistaken (but professionally correct) belief. Russia was already in a position where it couldn't win unless it's totally wrong assumptions about Ukrainian will to exist were actually totally right. But let's say that Russia doesn't rely on stupid metaphysical assumptions but is intent on invading anyway. That means a mass mobilization. Now we're back to the fact that Russia no longer has the organizational capability for mass mobilization. OK, so it's peacetime and Russia can try to rebuild that system to rapidly recruit, train, and equip enough troops to do the job within a couple of years. Neither the west nor Ukraine could possibly fail to notice this. Ukraine would begin to mobilize. The west would - probably - be shaken out of its lethargy by the reality that expanding Russian capabilities pointed to invasion. Training and supply would probably begin flowing to Ukraine. There would be no semi-surprise attack because everyone would see it coming. Europe might be willing to take harsh steps to deter invasion - like stationing a European brigade north of Kiev. Who knows. Invasion was never a winning play for Eussia. Yeah its a paradox. If they were smart and realized that their 190K (?) troops would not be enough and started mobilizing maybe they also realize it's just not worth it. And all their lies about "this is just another exercise" during the troop buildup would have been more transparently seen as bullshit. Although I doubt the West would have done much more. We didnt even start the sanctions until after the invasion. One thing I am certain of is that if Putin could have seen the result of his invasion, he would have never even spoken another word about Ukraine and forgot his dreams of empire building. Putin's intentions became clear when he went for a full scale invasion and tried to take Kyiv. It was a gamble that did not work out. He had the winning formula in Donbas. Irregular troops who appeared to be Russian-friendly locals. The appearance of helping one side in a "civil war" gave him deniability and distance from the conflict. If he focused on annexing Donbas and creating a land bridge to Crimea with the goal of providing water access, his message of "protecting" ethnic Russian minorities would have been believable. He could have taken a smaller chunk of land and focused on solidifying his gains, just like Hitler did with the Sudetenland. I don't think the West would have gotten involved in such a scenario. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 9:49:26 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Plausible. What "old Soviet" ammo is no longer in use yet stored by the 30K ton? Although in Ukraine and ex-Soviet States, who knows...Could be a reason for a delay for the counteroffensive? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By stgdz: So these two massive explosions now this month. As much as I hate to admit it, this is likely a lot of NATO hardware there. Yeah the Russians probably knew about it but the ukranians probably thought it was safe. These areas were likely used because they met storage requirements for ammo and other stuff. They still have other stuff but probably lost a significant amount. Shit Plausible. What "old Soviet" ammo is no longer in use yet stored by the 30K ton? Although in Ukraine and ex-Soviet States, who knows...Could be a reason for a delay for the counteroffensive? |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 9:52:58 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Once Russia is tapped out and can’t afford disinformation like they could two years ago, watch what random ideas and organizations suddenly blink out of existence. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By bigstick61: Which I believe were developed with the efforts of the Soviet Union and other communists. Just another way their IO have proven very successful. It seems to be one of the few things they do well. Once Russia is tapped out and can’t afford disinformation like they could two years ago, watch what random ideas and organizations suddenly blink out of existence. Exactly! |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:09:39 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Whoa. Prigozhin has claimed to have spoken to Zelensky personally on several occasions. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/3B9FE349-79CA-4E6C-BFBC-0DA5B3AC75D7-2816928.jpg https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/ Fucking mind blown. Well I guess leaks can cut both ways. Now Prigozhin/Putin can hardly fault Ukraine for blowing up a confidential exchange. It was their own useful idiot. Plus Putin is now in the position of having to try to discredit the leaks instead of capitalizing on them. I guess this settles who Prigozhin really works for - the FSB, Putin’s faction. The GRU would never sell out the Army like that, but the FSB would and has. Fucking bonkers if true. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:14:05 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Whoa. Prigozhin has claimed to have spoken to Zelensky personally on several occasions. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/3B9FE349-79CA-4E6C-BFBC-0DA5B3AC75D7-2816928.jpg https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/ |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:20:20 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: It can. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By PolarBear416: Originally Posted By Yobro512: Wait wait. So the Kerch bridge is going to be full on fucking gone soon enough? Like it’s a given now? I would assume the Russians have the most advanced AA they've got at either end of the bridge and on ships near it. So it'll depend on how good the SS is at evading AA over water This. I suspect it's probably one of the most defended (or will be soon) targets in the world right now. The bunker busting warhead of the Storm Shadow might also be a problem. Awesome if it can hit one of the bridge support columns, but a hit to the road might just punch cleanly through the road and then blow up beneath the bridge. Not sure if the missile can hit a specific column in a GPS degraded environment? It can. Awesome. Rooting for some BridgePosting in the near future |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:26:15 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Brok3n: I worked with these some years ago and was impressed by the flight system and quality for the price. Should serve them just fine in the ISR role. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Brok3n: Originally Posted By RockNwood: From from the same company that makes Switchblades. Bigger! 185km range and 13kg payload.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_0824-2816941.jpg The Jump 20 drone has a maximum takeoff weight of 97,5 kilograms, a payload weight of 13,6 kilograms, a length of 2,9 meters, and a wingspan of 5,7 meters. The drone can operate for 14 hours in a row, according to Militarnyi. The operational range of the Jump 20 is up to 185 kilometers; it can reach a height of 5,100 meters. I worked with these some years ago and was impressed by the flight system and quality for the price. Should serve them just fine in the ISR role. Do you know the cruising speed? And why would a copter have such long wings? Are those tilt rotors or some other reason? |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:29:32 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Fucking mind blown. Well I guess leaks can cut both ways. Now Prigozhin/Putin can hardly fault Ukraine for blowing up a confidential exchange. It was their own useful idiot. Plus Putin is now in the position of having to try to discredit the leaks instead of capitalizing on them. I guess this settles who Prigozhin really works for - the FSB, Putin’s faction. The GRU would never sell out the Army like that, but the FSB would and has. Fucking bonkers if true. Even if true, it might not be all that. Would you trust a list of Russian army locations given to you by Prigorzhin? But certainly wouldn't shock me if it were - he gets points for capturing Bakhmut and the Russian MoD looks more incompetent. Win-win. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:33:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: planemaker]
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Do you know the cruising speed? And why would a copter have such long wings? Are those tilt rotors or some other reason? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Brok3n: Originally Posted By RockNwood: From from the same company that makes Switchblades. Bigger! 185km range and 13kg payload.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_0824-2816941.jpg The Jump 20 drone has a maximum takeoff weight of 97,5 kilograms, a payload weight of 13,6 kilograms, a length of 2,9 meters, and a wingspan of 5,7 meters. The drone can operate for 14 hours in a row, according to Militarnyi. The operational range of the Jump 20 is up to 185 kilometers; it can reach a height of 5,100 meters. I worked with these some years ago and was impressed by the flight system and quality for the price. Should serve them just fine in the ISR role. Do you know the cruising speed? And why would a copter have such long wings? Are those tilt rotors or some other reason? Quadrotors are for takeoff and landing only. They shut off during fixed-wing flight mode. ETA: For more info, do a search on the term "quadplane". It's been a thing for a while. I've built a couple of them. Also, that "Jump 20" is actually the one that was designed and built by Arcturus. Aerovironment bought them out a few years ago. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:39:50 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts: Even if true, it might not be all that. Would you trust a list of Russian army locations given to you by Prigorzhin? But certainly wouldn't shock me if it were - he gets points for capturing Bakhmut and the Russian MoD looks more incompetent. Win-win. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts: Originally Posted By Capta: Fucking mind blown. Well I guess leaks can cut both ways. Now Prigozhin/Putin can hardly fault Ukraine for blowing up a confidential exchange. It was their own useful idiot. Plus Putin is now in the position of having to try to discredit the leaks instead of capitalizing on them. I guess this settles who Prigozhin really works for - the FSB, Putin’s faction. The GRU would never sell out the Army like that, but the FSB would and has. Fucking bonkers if true. Even if true, it might not be all that. Would you trust a list of Russian army locations given to you by Prigorzhin? But certainly wouldn't shock me if it were - he gets points for capturing Bakhmut and the Russian MoD looks more incompetent. Win-win. You figure Ukraine would verify and it has the means to via NATO ISR. Let’s just say hypothetically that Ukraine saw a plus in the cost-benefit to that trade. Ukraine would be foolish to uphold their end of the deal before Prigozhin upholds his end. At the least, they would have to do a “half up front, half later” deal. Prigozhin sells out a juicy target first and Ukraine make the hit and confirms, then Ukraine cedes ground, and so on. Fucking bonkers. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:44:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Zam18th]
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: It can. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By PolarBear416: Originally Posted By Yobro512: Wait wait. So the Kerch bridge is going to be full on fucking gone soon enough? Like it's a given now? I would assume the Russians have the most advanced AA they've got at either end of the bridge and on ships near it. So it'll depend on how good the SS is at evading AA over water This. I suspect it's probably one of the most defended (or will be soon) targets in the world right now. The bunker busting warhead of the Storm Shadow might also be a problem. Awesome if it can hit one of the bridge support columns, but a hit to the road might just punch cleanly through the road and then blow up beneath the bridge. Not sure if the missile can hit a specific column in a GPS degraded environment? It can. And I imagine that tandem warhead would help do some serious damage to the column. It just needs a little penetration. ETA: Just the tip? 
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:44:39 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: You figure Ukraine would verify and it has the means to via NATO ISR. Let’s just say hypothetically that Ukraine saw a plus in the cost-benefit to that trade. Ukraine would be foolish to uphold their end of the deal before Prigozhin upholds his end. At the least, they would have to do a “half up front, half later” deal. Prigozhin sells out a juicy target first and Ukraine make the hit and confirms, then Ukraine cedes ground, and so on. Fucking bonkers. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts: Originally Posted By Capta: Fucking mind blown. Well I guess leaks can cut both ways. Now Prigozhin/Putin can hardly fault Ukraine for blowing up a confidential exchange. It was their own useful idiot. Plus Putin is now in the position of having to try to discredit the leaks instead of capitalizing on them. I guess this settles who Prigozhin really works for - the FSB, Putin’s faction. The GRU would never sell out the Army like that, but the FSB would and has. Fucking bonkers if true. Even if true, it might not be all that. Would you trust a list of Russian army locations given to you by Prigorzhin? But certainly wouldn't shock me if it were - he gets points for capturing Bakhmut and the Russian MoD looks more incompetent. Win-win. You figure Ukraine would verify and it has the means to via NATO ISR. Let’s just say hypothetically that Ukraine saw a plus in the cost-benefit to that trade. Ukraine would be foolish to uphold their end of the deal before Prigozhin upholds his end. At the least, they would have to do a “half up front, half later” deal. Prigozhin sells out a juicy target first and Ukraine make the hit and confirms, then Ukraine cedes ground, and so on. Fucking bonkers. I have no idea whether this is legitimate or not, but it's important to note that this sort of thing isn't unprecedented when it comes to the Russians. Granted, this is at a smaller scale, but during the Chechen wars, Russian soldiers were known to sell the insurgents weapons in exchanges for guarantees that their specific position wouldn't get attacked, and if I'm remembering correctly, some Russian officers literally even handed over their own soldiers to the insurgents as POWs in deals like that. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:48:17 PM EDT
[#19]
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:52:06 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Quadrotors are for takeoff and landing only. They shut off during fixed-wing flight mode. ETA: For more info, do a search on the term "quadplane". It's been a thing for a while. I've built a couple of them. Also, that "Jump 20" is actually the one that was designed and built by Arcturus. Aerovironment bought them out a few years ago. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:56:03 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Quadrotors are for takeoff and landing only. They shut off during fixed-wing flight mode. ETA: For more info, do a search on the term "quadplane". It's been a thing for a while. I've built a couple of them. Also, that "Jump 20" is actually the one that was designed and built by Arcturus. Aerovironment bought them out a few years ago. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Brok3n: Originally Posted By RockNwood: From from the same company that makes Switchblades. Bigger! 185km range and 13kg payload.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_0824-2816941.jpg The Jump 20 drone has a maximum takeoff weight of 97,5 kilograms, a payload weight of 13,6 kilograms, a length of 2,9 meters, and a wingspan of 5,7 meters. The drone can operate for 14 hours in a row, according to Militarnyi. The operational range of the Jump 20 is up to 185 kilometers; it can reach a height of 5,100 meters. I worked with these some years ago and was impressed by the flight system and quality for the price. Should serve them just fine in the ISR role. Do you know the cruising speed? And why would a copter have such long wings? Are those tilt rotors or some other reason? Quadrotors are for takeoff and landing only. They shut off during fixed-wing flight mode. ETA: For more info, do a search on the term "quadplane". It's been a thing for a while. I've built a couple of them. Also, that "Jump 20" is actually the one that was designed and built by Arcturus. Aerovironment bought them out a few years ago. Excellent, thank you! |
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USA
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:56:42 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Whoa. Prigozhin has claimed to have spoken to Zelensky personally on several occasions. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/203719/3B9FE349-79CA-4E6C-BFBC-0DA5B3AC75D7-2816928.jpg https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/ The article does not seem to confirm that he spoke in person with Zelensky. Prigozhin simply relayed his offer to some intermediaries. It is also not clear that he acted on his own and not as an FSB asset. He must have known that any such discussion would likely be recorded. Ukraine would then be able to use it against him at any point of time to completely discredit him. I do not think Prigozhin is that dumb. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:57:20 PM EDT
[#23]
New Perun video dropped - “French defense policy and rearmament.” Highly worth the watch as it gives insight into the long-term direction of the European response to Russia.
Although the policy statement doesn't identify Wagner by name, with regards to central Africa it identifies the need to be a “security provider and partner…and to maintain a network of bases to provide support and intervention in the area.” I think Wagner is going to find out the hard way that they aren’t the baddest mofos around.  French Defence Strategy & Rearmament - a new war economy, deterrence & strategic autonomy |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 10:59:54 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: I have no idea whether this is legitimate or not, but it's important to note that this sort of thing isn't unprecedented when it comes to the Russians. Granted, this is at a smaller scale, but during the Chechen wars, Russian soldiers were known to sell the insurgents weapons in exchanges for guarantees that their specific position wouldn't get attacked, and if I'm remembering correctly, some Russian officers literally even handed over their own soldiers to the insurgents as POWs in deals like that. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts: Originally Posted By Capta: Fucking mind blown. Well I guess leaks can cut both ways. Now Prigozhin/Putin can hardly fault Ukraine for blowing up a confidential exchange. It was their own useful idiot. Plus Putin is now in the position of having to try to discredit the leaks instead of capitalizing on them. I guess this settles who Prigozhin really works for - the FSB, Putin’s faction. The GRU would never sell out the Army like that, but the FSB would and has. Fucking bonkers if true. Even if true, it might not be all that. Would you trust a list of Russian army locations given to you by Prigorzhin? But certainly wouldn't shock me if it were - he gets points for capturing Bakhmut and the Russian MoD looks more incompetent. Win-win. You figure Ukraine would verify and it has the means to via NATO ISR. Let’s just say hypothetically that Ukraine saw a plus in the cost-benefit to that trade. Ukraine would be foolish to uphold their end of the deal before Prigozhin upholds his end. At the least, they would have to do a “half up front, half later” deal. Prigozhin sells out a juicy target first and Ukraine make the hit and confirms, then Ukraine cedes ground, and so on. Fucking bonkers. I have no idea whether this is legitimate or not, but it's important to note that this sort of thing isn't unprecedented when it comes to the Russians. Granted, this is at a smaller scale, but during the Chechen wars, Russian soldiers were known to sell the insurgents weapons in exchanges for guarantees that their specific position wouldn't get attacked, and if I'm remembering correctly, some Russian officers literally even handed over their own soldiers to the insurgents as POWs in deals like that. They were too smart to fall for his lies
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:07:44 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: They were too smart to fall for his lies
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts: Originally Posted By Capta: Fucking mind blown. Well I guess leaks can cut both ways. Now Prigozhin/Putin can hardly fault Ukraine for blowing up a confidential exchange. It was their own useful idiot. Plus Putin is now in the position of having to try to discredit the leaks instead of capitalizing on them. I guess this settles who Prigozhin really works for - the FSB, Putin’s faction. The GRU would never sell out the Army like that, but the FSB would and has. Fucking bonkers if true. Even if true, it might not be all that. Would you trust a list of Russian army locations given to you by Prigorzhin? But certainly wouldn't shock me if it were - he gets points for capturing Bakhmut and the Russian MoD looks more incompetent. Win-win. You figure Ukraine would verify and it has the means to via NATO ISR. Let’s just say hypothetically that Ukraine saw a plus in the cost-benefit to that trade. Ukraine would be foolish to uphold their end of the deal before Prigozhin upholds his end. At the least, they would have to do a “half up front, half later” deal. Prigozhin sells out a juicy target first and Ukraine make the hit and confirms, then Ukraine cedes ground, and so on. Fucking bonkers. I have no idea whether this is legitimate or not, but it's important to note that this sort of thing isn't unprecedented when it comes to the Russians. Granted, this is at a smaller scale, but during the Chechen wars, Russian soldiers were known to sell the insurgents weapons in exchanges for guarantees that their specific position wouldn't get attacked, and if I'm remembering correctly, some Russian officers literally even handed over their own soldiers to the insurgents as POWs in deals like that. They were too smart to fall for his lies
That was the smart call, for sure. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:16:41 PM EDT
[#26]
RU TG
Colleagues from the Rybar Canal suggested that a Russian air group that was ambushed in the Bryansk region could have been hit by NASAMS air defense systems. Although the traces in the blades of one of the downed helicopters are similar to the traces of semi-finished submunitions of the early "heavy" WDU-33 / B warhead of the AIM-120B or WDU-41 / B series missiles of the later AIM-120C5 +, in our opinion, NASAMS ground-based air defense systems are unlikely could be involved in this. The wreckage of the Su-35 and one of the Mi-8s fell at a distance of almost 50 km from the border, and the wreckage of another Mi-8 more than 50 km, which is more than the maximum possible launch range of the NASAMS 2 air defense systems transferred to Ukraine, which is estimated at ~ 30 km. At the same time, it is important to understand that the downed Su-35 was at a high altitude and fell forward, which means that the distance to it was even greater, and the air defense system, obviously, was not standing right on the border. The declared maximum range of 100-150 km for late-series AIM-120 rockets used in NASAMS is typical only for launching from an air carrier, as it is provided by the acceleration and inertia of a rocket flying down from a great height. In the case of a missile launch from the ground, this range is reduced by several times. Therefore, we believe that another enemy anti-aircraft complex may be involved in this ambush. @milinfolive https://t.me/milinfolive/100696 |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:20:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: tnriverluver]
[#27]
Could this be true?? Calling BS for now.
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:30:43 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: The article does not seem to confirm that he spoke in person with Zelensky. Prigozhin simply relayed his offer to some intermediaries. It is also not clear that he acted on his own and not as an FSB asset. He must have known that any such discussion would likely be recorded. Ukraine would then be able to use it against him at any point of time to completely discredit him. I do not think Prigozhin is that dumb. No it doesn’t, pardon the confusion. I meant he has claimed that in separate messages on his TG channel. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:31:32 PM EDT
[Last Edit: fike]
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By tnriverluver: Could this be true?? Calling BS for now.
If anyone knows the truth, it’s Chuck Callesto. Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:33:41 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: I have no idea whether this is legitimate or not, but it's important to note that this sort of thing isn't unprecedented when it comes to the Russians. Granted, this is at a smaller scale, but during the Chechen wars, Russian soldiers were known to sell the insurgents weapons in exchanges for guarantees that their specific position wouldn't get attacked, and if I'm remembering correctly, some Russian officers literally even handed over their own soldiers to the insurgents as POWs in deals like that. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Bartholomew_Roberts: Originally Posted By Capta: Fucking mind blown. Well I guess leaks can cut both ways. Now Prigozhin/Putin can hardly fault Ukraine for blowing up a confidential exchange. It was their own useful idiot. Plus Putin is now in the position of having to try to discredit the leaks instead of capitalizing on them. I guess this settles who Prigozhin really works for - the FSB, Putin’s faction. The GRU would never sell out the Army like that, but the FSB would and has. Fucking bonkers if true. Even if true, it might not be all that. Would you trust a list of Russian army locations given to you by Prigorzhin? But certainly wouldn't shock me if it were - he gets points for capturing Bakhmut and the Russian MoD looks more incompetent. Win-win. You figure Ukraine would verify and it has the means to via NATO ISR. Let’s just say hypothetically that Ukraine saw a plus in the cost-benefit to that trade. Ukraine would be foolish to uphold their end of the deal before Prigozhin upholds his end. At the least, they would have to do a “half up front, half later” deal. Prigozhin sells out a juicy target first and Ukraine make the hit and confirms, then Ukraine cedes ground, and so on. Fucking bonkers. I have no idea whether this is legitimate or not, but it's important to note that this sort of thing isn't unprecedented when it comes to the Russians. Granted, this is at a smaller scale, but during the Chechen wars, Russian soldiers were known to sell the insurgents weapons in exchanges for guarantees that their specific position wouldn't get attacked, and if I'm remembering correctly, some Russian officers literally even handed over their own soldiers to the insurgents as POWs in deals like that. Right, and something I saw recently on Youtube made me think about this. In this video “Captain HIMARS”, addressing Russian troops, says “I stand on my word. I don’t hit barracks in areas where you give us coordinates of armored vehicles and ammo depots. Keep sending us targets.” It might be a mistake to dismiss this as just propaganda. There is precedent from Chechnya. The average mobik is probably well aware of the carnage from HIMARS, and it only takes one to do a deal with Ukraine. Ukraine holds up their end as long as the info flows. What is it to some mobik from Siberia whether some other unit’s tanks blow up? They and their buds are safe. And Ukraine sweetens the pot with a little cash in their account - yeah I could believe it.  #HIMARS shown stored securely in ‘Soviet Bunker’ ! |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:39:05 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: New Perun video dropped - “French defense policy and rearmament.” Highly worth the watch as it gives insight into the long-term direction of the European response to Russia. Although the policy statement doesn't identify Wagner by name, with regards to central Africa it identifies the need to be a “security provider and partner…and to maintain a network of bases to provide support and intervention in the area.” I think Wagner is going to find out the hard way that they aren’t the baddest mofos around.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5eUh3_eo9EThis is proof China is gonna be pissed at Russia. China was the real power player in Africa recently….now the Euros/French are going to be playing more often down there. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:39:32 PM EDT
[#32]
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:40:58 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By tnriverluver: Could this be true?? Calling BS for now.
If that were the case you would never see the video. |
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:42:09 PM EDT
[Last Edit: ServusVeritatis]
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By tnriverluver: Could this be true?? Calling BS for now.
The other tard/propaganda threads already posted. I’d say it’s more goof ball stuff like normal. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:50:29 PM EDT
[#35]
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Posted: 5/14/2023 11:51:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: RU TG Colleagues from the Rybar Canal suggested that a Russian air group that was ambushed in the Bryansk region could have been hit by NASAMS air defense systems. Although the traces in the blades of one of the downed helicopters are similar to the traces of semi-finished submunitions of the early "heavy" WDU-33 / B warhead of the AIM-120B or WDU-41 / B series missiles of the later AIM-120C5 +, in our opinion, NASAMS ground-based air defense systems are unlikely could be involved in this. The wreckage of the Su-35 and one of the Mi-8s fell at a distance of almost 50 km from the border, and the wreckage of another Mi-8 more than 50 km, which is more than the maximum possible launch range of the NASAMS 2 air defense systems transferred to Ukraine, which is estimated at ~ 30 km. At the same time, it is important to understand that the downed Su-35 was at a high altitude and fell forward, which means that the distance to it was even greater, and the air defense system, obviously, was not standing right on the border. The declared maximum range of 100-150 km for late-series AIM-120 rockets used in NASAMS is typical only for launching from an air carrier, as it is provided by the acceleration and inertia of a rocket flying down from a great height. In the case of a missile launch from the ground, this range is reduced by several times. Therefore, we believe that another enemy anti-aircraft complex may be involved in this ambush. @milinfolive https://t.me/milinfolive/100696 Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:02:01 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Prime: RU TG Colleagues from the Rybar Canal suggested that a Russian air group that was ambushed in the Bryansk region could have been hit by NASAMS air defense systems. Although the traces in the blades of one of the downed helicopters are similar to the traces of semi-finished submunitions of the early "heavy" WDU-33 / B warhead of the AIM-120B or WDU-41 / B series missiles of the later AIM-120C5 +, in our opinion, NASAMS ground-based air defense systems are unlikely could be involved in this. The wreckage of the Su-35 and one of the Mi-8s fell at a distance of almost 50 km from the border, and the wreckage of another Mi-8 more than 50 km, which is more than the maximum possible launch range of the NASAMS 2 air defense systems transferred to Ukraine, which is estimated at ~ 30 km. At the same time, it is important to understand that the downed Su-35 was at a high altitude and fell forward, which means that the distance to it was even greater, and the air defense system, obviously, was not standing right on the border. The declared maximum range of 100-150 km for late-series AIM-120 rockets used in NASAMS is typical only for launching from an air carrier, as it is provided by the acceleration and inertia of a rocket flying down from a great height. In the case of a missile launch from the ground, this range is reduced by several times. Therefore, we believe that another enemy anti-aircraft complex may be involved in this ambush. @milinfolive https://t.me/milinfolive/100696 Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? Scary for a Russian pilot isn’t it? |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:09:33 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? As much as we are trying to piece together what happened, just imagine how hard the Russians are trying to piece together what happened. You know they have to be going nuts trying to figure out how they were surprised like this. I kind of hope it remains secret for now how they did this. It will keep the Russians off balance, edgy and unsure of themselves. And maybe Ukraine can pull it off again. |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:17:41 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Prime: RU TG Colleagues from the Rybar Canal suggested that a Russian air group that was ambushed in the Bryansk region could have been hit by NASAMS air defense systems. Although the traces in the blades of one of the downed helicopters are similar to the traces of semi-finished submunitions of the early "heavy" WDU-33 / B warhead of the AIM-120B or WDU-41 / B series missiles of the later AIM-120C5 +, in our opinion, NASAMS ground-based air defense systems are unlikely could be involved in this. The wreckage of the Su-35 and one of the Mi-8s fell at a distance of almost 50 km from the border, and the wreckage of another Mi-8 more than 50 km, which is more than the maximum possible launch range of the NASAMS 2 air defense systems transferred to Ukraine, which is estimated at ~ 30 km. At the same time, it is important to understand that the downed Su-35 was at a high altitude and fell forward, which means that the distance to it was even greater, and the air defense system, obviously, was not standing right on the border. The declared maximum range of 100-150 km for late-series AIM-120 rockets used in NASAMS is typical only for launching from an air carrier, as it is provided by the acceleration and inertia of a rocket flying down from a great height. In the case of a missile launch from the ground, this range is reduced by several times. Therefore, we believe that another enemy anti-aircraft complex may be involved in this ambush. @milinfolive https://t.me/milinfolive/100696 Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? The really fascinating thing about this is that there's no real Occam's Razor explanation. |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:26:40 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Finslayer83: If that were the case you would never see the video. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Finslayer83: Originally Posted By tnriverluver: Could this be true?? Calling BS for now.
If that were the case you would never see the video. Is that the rock you like? Is that the ground you like??? Man it would be real hard if I were Ukrainian…. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:33:34 AM EDT
[#41]
The conflict cannot end until Ukraine is part of the West
The question is not whether Ukraine should become a part of the Euro-Atlantic institutions, but when and how. https://www.politico.eu/article/the-conflict-cannot-end-until-ukraine-is-part-of-the-west/ “Ukraine will survive,” a very seasoned spymaster told a group of former senior officials who traveled to Kyiv from the United States and Europe. “The most difficult point will come after the war,” he added. At its core, the war in Ukraine is a fight not over territory but over the country’s future. Russia is determined to control Ukraine’s political destiny — if not its territory. And in this, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not unique, representing a historic Russian tradition of seeking security in empire — which, at a minimum, includes Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Even if Ukraine succeeds in pushing Russia’s military forces all the way back to its 1991 borders, the conflict won’t truly end. Ukrainian intelligence officials estimate that if the fighting were to stop this year, Russia would already be able to reconstitute sufficient capabilities to restart the war by 2027-2028 — even with economic sanctions remaining in place. So, in order to truly end the conflict, Russia will have to understand — or be made to understand — that Ukraine’s future will be decided in Kyiv, not Moscow. And Kyiv has made it abundantly clear that it sees that future in the West, as an integral part of the Euro-Atlantic institutions. Ultimately, for Kyiv, finding a guaranteed place in the West is more important than securing control over all its territory through military means — though it does, rightly, insist that full independence and sovereignty requires complete control of all the territory within its 1991 borders. Thus, Putin’s strategic failure will only be complete if Moscow comes to understand that Ukraine is permanently lost — lost physically, economically, politically and strategically. And ensuring that failure should be the ultimate objective — not just for Ukraine but for the West too...... |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:33:43 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: Scary for a Russian pilot isn’t it? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Prime: RU TG Colleagues from the Rybar Canal suggested that a Russian air group that was ambushed in the Bryansk region could have been hit by NASAMS air defense systems. Although the traces in the blades of one of the downed helicopters are similar to the traces of semi-finished submunitions of the early "heavy" WDU-33 / B warhead of the AIM-120B or WDU-41 / B series missiles of the later AIM-120C5 +, in our opinion, NASAMS ground-based air defense systems are unlikely could be involved in this. The wreckage of the Su-35 and one of the Mi-8s fell at a distance of almost 50 km from the border, and the wreckage of another Mi-8 more than 50 km, which is more than the maximum possible launch range of the NASAMS 2 air defense systems transferred to Ukraine, which is estimated at ~ 30 km. At the same time, it is important to understand that the downed Su-35 was at a high altitude and fell forward, which means that the distance to it was even greater, and the air defense system, obviously, was not standing right on the border. The declared maximum range of 100-150 km for late-series AIM-120 rockets used in NASAMS is typical only for launching from an air carrier, as it is provided by the acceleration and inertia of a rocket flying down from a great height. In the case of a missile launch from the ground, this range is reduced by several times. Therefore, we believe that another enemy anti-aircraft complex may be involved in this ambush. @milinfolive https://t.me/milinfolive/100696 Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? Scary for a Russian pilot isn’t it? Hopefully so! Don’t think this has been posted, but Prigozhin is suggesting it’s possible that Russian AD shot them down. Take with a large grain of salt as consistent with throwing shade on the regular Army. https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-founder-thinks-russia-shot-down-its-own-aircraft-1800201 Only one missile hit is on camera - an Mi-8 taking one to the face. We can assume that one missile was fired at each Mi-8 - fat, slow targets with no countermeasures. It may make sense to send two at each Su - they have RW receivers and countermeasures. So we have a missile expenditure of either 4 or 6. A NASAMS launcher holds 6. The modernized Polish Mig-29s can probably carry four, so it would require one or more likely two ships. Will be actively looking for more into on this! |
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USA
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:47:33 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: The really fascinating thing about this is that there's no real Occam's Razor explanation. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Prime: RU TG Colleagues from the Rybar Canal suggested that a Russian air group that was ambushed in the Bryansk region could have been hit by NASAMS air defense systems. Although the traces in the blades of one of the downed helicopters are similar to the traces of semi-finished submunitions of the early "heavy" WDU-33 / B warhead of the AIM-120B or WDU-41 / B series missiles of the later AIM-120C5 +, in our opinion, NASAMS ground-based air defense systems are unlikely could be involved in this. The wreckage of the Su-35 and one of the Mi-8s fell at a distance of almost 50 km from the border, and the wreckage of another Mi-8 more than 50 km, which is more than the maximum possible launch range of the NASAMS 2 air defense systems transferred to Ukraine, which is estimated at ~ 30 km. At the same time, it is important to understand that the downed Su-35 was at a high altitude and fell forward, which means that the distance to it was even greater, and the air defense system, obviously, was not standing right on the border. The declared maximum range of 100-150 km for late-series AIM-120 rockets used in NASAMS is typical only for launching from an air carrier, as it is provided by the acceleration and inertia of a rocket flying down from a great height. In the case of a missile launch from the ground, this range is reduced by several times. Therefore, we believe that another enemy anti-aircraft complex may be involved in this ambush. @milinfolive https://t.me/milinfolive/100696 Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? The really fascinating thing about this is that there's no real Occam's Razor explanation. The Occam's Razor explanation is that Russia shot down its own aircraft. Again. Just more spectacularly this time. |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:48:50 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: The really fascinating thing about this is that there's no real Occam's Razor explanation. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Prime: RU TG Colleagues from the Rybar Canal suggested that a Russian air group that was ambushed in the Bryansk region could have been hit by NASAMS air defense systems. Although the traces in the blades of one of the downed helicopters are similar to the traces of semi-finished submunitions of the early "heavy" WDU-33 / B warhead of the AIM-120B or WDU-41 / B series missiles of the later AIM-120C5 +, in our opinion, NASAMS ground-based air defense systems are unlikely could be involved in this. The wreckage of the Su-35 and one of the Mi-8s fell at a distance of almost 50 km from the border, and the wreckage of another Mi-8 more than 50 km, which is more than the maximum possible launch range of the NASAMS 2 air defense systems transferred to Ukraine, which is estimated at ~ 30 km. At the same time, it is important to understand that the downed Su-35 was at a high altitude and fell forward, which means that the distance to it was even greater, and the air defense system, obviously, was not standing right on the border. The declared maximum range of 100-150 km for late-series AIM-120 rockets used in NASAMS is typical only for launching from an air carrier, as it is provided by the acceleration and inertia of a rocket flying down from a great height. In the case of a missile launch from the ground, this range is reduced by several times. Therefore, we believe that another enemy anti-aircraft complex may be involved in this ambush. @milinfolive https://t.me/milinfolive/100696 Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? The really fascinating thing about this is that there's no real Occam's Razor explanation. To me the easiest, most direct explanation is that Ukraine coordinated a HARM/AMRAAM ambush. But definitely have an open mind and very interested in following the story! |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:52:21 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: To me the easiest, most direct explanation is that Ukraine coordinated a HARM/AMRAAM ambush. But definitely have an open mind and very interested in following the story! If so, is that a tactic they could pull again? Or at the very least, could the possibility of doing it again force the Russians to move their shit further away? |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:57:01 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PolarBear416: The Occam's Razor explanation is that Russia shot down its own aircraft. Again. Just more spectacularly this time. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PolarBear416: Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Prime: RU TG Colleagues from the Rybar Canal suggested that a Russian air group that was ambushed in the Bryansk region could have been hit by NASAMS air defense systems. Although the traces in the blades of one of the downed helicopters are similar to the traces of semi-finished submunitions of the early "heavy" WDU-33 / B warhead of the AIM-120B or WDU-41 / B series missiles of the later AIM-120C5 +, in our opinion, NASAMS ground-based air defense systems are unlikely could be involved in this. The wreckage of the Su-35 and one of the Mi-8s fell at a distance of almost 50 km from the border, and the wreckage of another Mi-8 more than 50 km, which is more than the maximum possible launch range of the NASAMS 2 air defense systems transferred to Ukraine, which is estimated at ~ 30 km. At the same time, it is important to understand that the downed Su-35 was at a high altitude and fell forward, which means that the distance to it was even greater, and the air defense system, obviously, was not standing right on the border. The declared maximum range of 100-150 km for late-series AIM-120 rockets used in NASAMS is typical only for launching from an air carrier, as it is provided by the acceleration and inertia of a rocket flying down from a great height. In the case of a missile launch from the ground, this range is reduced by several times. Therefore, we believe that another enemy anti-aircraft complex may be involved in this ambush. @milinfolive https://t.me/milinfolive/100696 Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? The really fascinating thing about this is that there's no real Occam's Razor explanation. The Occam's Razor explanation is that Russia shot down its own aircraft. Again. Just more spectacularly this time. Don’t agree, it would take a fuckup of historical proportions by a whole lot of people at the AD sites to shoot down FOUR blue AC. Like along the lines of a Ukrainian SAM crew in uniform knocking on the radar shack door and saying, “Hey man, you guys go get lunch. We’ll watch the shop.” I think we’ll find out ultimately because this is one of those events like Moskva - it’s too big to be swept under the rug. There’s video all over of Russian AC falling in flames over Russian soil, filmed by Russians. |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 12:58:17 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Exactly! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By bigstick61: Which I believe were developed with the efforts of the Soviet Union and other communists. Just another way their IO have proven very successful. It seems to be one of the few things they do well. Once Russia is tapped out and can't afford disinformation like they could two years ago, watch what random ideas and organizations suddenly blink out of existence. Exactly! China will fill the void. Hell they've been coordinating a lot of their propaganda BS for years anyway. |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 1:00:43 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Auto5guy: China will fill the void. Hell they've been coordinating a lot of their propaganda BS for years anyway. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Auto5guy: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By bigstick61: Which I believe were developed with the efforts of the Soviet Union and other communists. Just another way their IO have proven very successful. It seems to be one of the few things they do well. Once Russia is tapped out and can't afford disinformation like they could two years ago, watch what random ideas and organizations suddenly blink out of existence. Exactly! China will fill the void. Hell they've been coordinating a lot of their propaganda BS for years anyway. There was a hilarious thread here a few weeks back in which the OP argued that the US government is more corrupt than the Chinese government. The really sad thing was that in the poll, about half of the respondents said that the US government is equally or more corrupt... This place is doing its best to embody idiocracy. |
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Posted: 5/15/2023 1:03:31 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Auto5guy: China will fill the void. Hell they've been coordinating a lot of their propaganda BS for years anyway. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Auto5guy: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By bigstick61: Which I believe were developed with the efforts of the Soviet Union and other communists. Just another way their IO have proven very successful. It seems to be one of the few things they do well. Once Russia is tapped out and can't afford disinformation like they could two years ago, watch what random ideas and organizations suddenly blink out of existence. Exactly! China will fill the void. Hell they've been coordinating a lot of their propaganda BS for years anyway. Maybe so. But Russia has deep tendrils in American political society, probably a lot deeper than we know. Those kind of assets are the result of relationships built over decades - heck, generations. 90+ years. And they probably can’t just be handed off to China. No doubt China has been building their own network since the 80s or so. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/15/2023 1:14:53 AM EDT
[Last Edit: PolarBear416]
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Don’t agree, it would take a fuckup of historical proportions by a whole lot of people at the AD sites to shoot down FOUR blue AC. Like along the lines of a Ukrainian SAM crew in uniform knocking on the radar shack door and saying, “Hey man, you guys go get lunch. We’ll watch the shop.” I think we’ll find out ultimately because this is one of those events like Moskva - it’s too big to be swept under the rug. There’s video all over of Russian AC falling in flames over Russian soil, filmed by Russians. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By PolarBear416: Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Prime: RU TG Colleagues from the Rybar Canal suggested that a Russian air group that was ambushed in the Bryansk region could have been hit by NASAMS air defense systems. Although the traces in the blades of one of the downed helicopters are similar to the traces of semi-finished submunitions of the early "heavy" WDU-33 / B warhead of the AIM-120B or WDU-41 / B series missiles of the later AIM-120C5 +, in our opinion, NASAMS ground-based air defense systems are unlikely could be involved in this. The wreckage of the Su-35 and one of the Mi-8s fell at a distance of almost 50 km from the border, and the wreckage of another Mi-8 more than 50 km, which is more than the maximum possible launch range of the NASAMS 2 air defense systems transferred to Ukraine, which is estimated at ~ 30 km. At the same time, it is important to understand that the downed Su-35 was at a high altitude and fell forward, which means that the distance to it was even greater, and the air defense system, obviously, was not standing right on the border. The declared maximum range of 100-150 km for late-series AIM-120 rockets used in NASAMS is typical only for launching from an air carrier, as it is provided by the acceleration and inertia of a rocket flying down from a great height. In the case of a missile launch from the ground, this range is reduced by several times. Therefore, we believe that another enemy anti-aircraft complex may be involved in this ambush. @milinfolive https://t.me/milinfolive/100696 Hmm, the plot thickens. I looked through Youtube videos at HAWK intercepts, and from rather limited data it doesn’t look look like the HAWK warhead which always seemed to produce a spherical fireball. Did Ukraine run a Patriot right up to the border? They’ve done ballsy things before so I don’t count it out. They only have to do it once and now they’ve brushed Russia back from the border and changed how they operate. Did Ukraine get ER AMRAAMs contrary to expectations? Did Ukraine run a SEAD trap where they led with HARMS against local AD, which shut down but didn’t tell their air assets, allowing a Mig to zap them with AMRAAMs? Is there now a completely unknown asset in Ukraine? The really fascinating thing about this is that there's no real Occam's Razor explanation. The Occam's Razor explanation is that Russia shot down its own aircraft. Again. Just more spectacularly this time. Don’t agree, it would take a fuckup of historical proportions by a whole lot of people at the AD sites to shoot down FOUR blue AC. Like along the lines of a Ukrainian SAM crew in uniform knocking on the radar shack door and saying, “Hey man, you guys go get lunch. We’ll watch the shop.” I think we’ll find out ultimately because this is one of those events like Moskva - it’s too big to be swept under the rug. There’s video all over of Russian AC falling in flames over Russian soil, filmed by Russians. They were apparently shot down almost simultaneously. According to Prigozhen all within a circle with a 20km radius. He thinks it was an own goal. If their friend or foe system was misconfigured or off that AA battery could have lit them all up at once Eta https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1657736660744904707 |
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