Hmm, this is a new one on me. Off to Google.

Five seconds later: 2022 is "immediately" after 2014? Lol.

Reads a little more: so you're upset that Ukraine passed a law that reduces the power of unions in companies of less than 250 people? Are you sure this talking point wasn't meant for your DU account?

That they do have a lot of, which is why they're using tanks as artillery pieces around Bakhmut. Wearing out barrels rapidly, but they're desperate and not thinking long term.

So ... supplying Ukraine with nato equipment new or old, or even old Soviet stuffand giving them shit tons of over border/over seas training is not helping them currently beat the shit out of the Russians?

I guess I didn't mention all the intelligence we give them too as well as our recent 20 years experience just finishing operations in Afghanistan

As to top notch stuff? Well I'd say the javelin is perhaps the best man portable tank killing weapon out there right now, if that isn't good shit what is?

They have a lot that they haven’t used yet… nasty stuff like thermobaric weapons-maybe they can’t afford a lot of that shit either, but they have capabilities beyond 1970’s artillery.

Speaking of which, I have been watching as many videos from this war as anyone and I have yet to see an artillery round that air bursts…. We had that shit in WW2, why are all of their rounds impacting the ground before detonating?

Bro pro-Code Pink and pro-union talking points are totally conservative ideals.

What you are missing in my quote is that those two statements are still being posted by the same people, of the same position, at the same time.

Sure if Russia steamrolled Ukraine in one fashion or the other when this kicked off. The world would rightly be worried.

But now that this hasn't come to pass.

The truth is you can't really say Russia has officially lost because they haven't quit yet.  Even if the likelihood of achieving their aim becomes more impossible by the day.

You also can't say that if this ends tomorrow with Ukraine's unlikely surrender that all of Europe is at risk.  Because Russia has already lost so much and proven that resisting them is a juice worth the squeeze.

And not killing commies/fascist

Here's the thing...

Russia has a per capita GDP of somewhere around $10,000. Compare that to the poorest state in the Union, Mississippi, with a GDP of $35,000.

Now, things aren't that bad in that some goods are a lot cheaper in Russia but Russia is still a poor country.

In addition Russia has this thing called "Dutch Disease" which is where a nation's economy relies on selling its natural resources at the expense of the manufacturing sector.

And then you have the famous Russian corruption.

Now, all of these things apply to Ukraine too, but Ukraine is getting help from the West.

Artillery shells and other munitions do not have an infinite shelf life. I'm sure not an expert on explosive storage but shortcuts in the manufacturing process can leave acids in the explosives which could, potentially, result in premature detonations or just corrosion rendering the shells useless. And then there are climate and weather considerations. So, while artillery shells made in the West and stored in somewhat climate controlled igloos might last a long time, I'm betting that crappy Soviet era stuff, stored in some leaky shack in Siberia wouldn't be safe to use after a few decades... And do you really think some corrupt Russian officials are going to actually spend money on maintaining the artillery shells? My guess is that they would be far more likely to sell them off to someone instead. Lots of nations could use some explosives for construction, or for blowing up their neighbors.

Of course I haven't actually inspected Russian artillery shells or their storage facilities so I am just making assumptions that their ammunition depots were just as crappy, crooked, and mismanaged as everything else in Russia apparently is. My assumptions are therefore just assumptions, but this is just water cooler talk. I'm not actually making intelligence recommendations to the President here... If I did I would have to reduce the briefing to a coloring book, with pictures of lots of little girls, to hold his attention.

We have all lived through ammunitions shortages in the US and the same thing essentially happens in war. Munitions usage is always higher than the planners planned for. Of course it is because munitions usage in a war is based on the "how much you need is how much you got" system. If your military has it then it will probably use it. And the munition factories can't possibly keep up with the demand. So when stockpiles are exhausted then the war slows down as both sides try to produce and stockpile enough to support an offensive.

All of this adds up to our effete Kia mechanic probably being correct. Russia likely is running out of artillery shells. They will probably try to inspect and refurbish some of the less well maintained shells but this could be dangerous for the crews. They will try to buy shells from North Korea, China, and anyone else who is willing to sell them. They will try to ramp up production and they probably can do this as artillery shells aren't, (Or don't have to be) high tech items.

And the same forces are at work (to a lesser extent) in the US as well. We are going to have to ramp up production, if we aren't already. And we will run out of artillery shells to supply Ukraine in short order. I don't know when exactly, but I know how these things work.

As far as chemical shells go, I can see the Russians doing that. Using chemical weapons would be insanely stupid... So it's realistic that the idiots in Russia will try it.

They have already used thermobarrics and white phosphorus on some parts of the front but not en masse

As to your question now that I think about it I don't belive the Russians ever went all in on radar or time fuses due to cost, out right numbers seems like was always the goal, I know iv seen some vids of them using some though I mean they do have them and have had them forever.

Russia is committed at this point. They will need to throw everything at this .

Which is why the aid to Ukraine will keep flowing.

When the next batch of himars arrives it’s going to be even worse for Russia.

Bwhahahaha

Sure they are...what bullshit source??

Same "source " that has been saying Russia gonna run out missiles in few days??

I was waiting for you to turn up.

Why use Iranian drones?

They're fine on arty munitions dude...don't worry about it

Only one's running out of anything is Ukraine and the west...

The scariest fireworks.
Volley of russian phosphorus munitions on the front line.
Video by Serhii Fishchuk pic.twitter.com/3FvIIondFP

Defense of Ukraine  (@DefenceU) August 16, 2022

They’re not “cornered”. They’re invaders fighting on foreign land. Their “escape route” is to simply stop fighting and go home…

You did. You’re the puppet and the Russians are pulling your strings. The Russian puppet in Ukraine does the country before Azov Battalion was formed. When the Russians invaded they cut off the largest areas of pro Russian minority voters from Ukrainian elections and ensured that the country would move to align with the west. That’s not western puppetry that’s Putin being an idiot. Now go listen instead of speaking.

If we had a republican in charge right now ARF would be 99% behind the decision to kill Russians. It's fantastic to watch people do a flip flop.

I remember when you told us that the Ukrainian offensive near Kherson was defeated with overwhelming Ukrainian casualties in just a few hours.

No we wouldn't. Speak for yourself. We aren't all boomers.

Russian sources consistently talk about a shortage of shells. It’s not clear whether the shells don’t exist or the Russians can’t get them to the front. The fact that they are buying ammunition in Belarus and North Korea makes it likely that Viktor about and others sold a huge amount of their ammunition off. Also consider that a huge percentage of artillery ammunition is lost, destroyed or captured in war, potentially half that makes it to the front at times.

well its not like they have much of their own and not many other countries are selling so yeah Iran is the best choice they have, its not like China or Turkey is going to sell Russia theirs.

oh sure Ukraine and west stock is getting low too but unlike Russia or Ukraine we can actually afford to build plenty more

For now they have two excape routes: North and East.  Crimea may not in a few weeks



Mike

Borderline gen Zer here who has no issues with Russian imperialists getting stacked like cordwood with Western equipment.

I guess it comes down to just how crazy Putin is, he does seem to be dedicated to this at all costs.

But surely even he realizes that the second he pulls out chemical weapons, Ukraine is going to get 10x more support from the rest of the world as they already have.

Sir, your nose.

Why are Russians consistently talking about artillery shortages?

Why are Russians no longer firing 60k rounds per day and not advancing?

@nomad07

yeah its not a big loss thats for sure

Because DoS, JSOC/SOCOM and the Army National Guard have been balls deep in The Ukraine preparing for this little LARP since 2014?

The whole situation is derp, we're spending borrowed money to prop up a European problem while not preparing for the coming fight with China.

Attached File

Transport.  Logistics.  They have quantity, just not where they need it.  Think of it as a wall made up of your cash.  The .Govt is not protecting our southern border, but is sure as fuck putting a wall of cash (weapons) up in Ukraine.

They don’t have quantities. A lot of it has been sold and sent off over the years through folks like viktor bout, corruption, and the black market.

They are having to buy ammunition from North Korea. Not a good sign .

You're beginning to catch on.

Take the Red Pill.

Gen X, but I'm not sure how that would be a insult because you're so tarded it doesn't matter what time frame you were born in.

That assertion aged poorly.

It's quite fascinating if not so sad.

Kherson is Russian forever.

Did they get rid of all of the Soviet nukes?

It certainly ain't Ukrainian....

https://www.politico.eu/article/kherson-ukraine-civilians-evacuate-russia-intensifies-bombings-strikes-shipyards/

Kherson is like Snake Island; no one is going to be able to keep it.

They gave them up for a promise of nonaggression from Russia… oops.

Some truth to all of that, but they'd always exported munitions as a part of their national strategy.  The kinds of munitions they seem to be short on are not the basics.  The cornerstone of their warfighting doctrine has always called for massed artillery fires, and they've always had the deep stocks of both artillery and ammo.  They have not ever had deep stocks on anything considered "smart".  Their supplies are not endless, and neither are ours.

But did they?  That would be so stupid.

They never had operational control of those missiles, so they basically got nothing for nothing.

So, you think the Russians will be able to conduct an assault across the Dnipro to retake Kherson? Fascinating...

The one area they are clearly short on is artillery at the front. They were advancing over the summer using massed fires. Logistics went to shit. The volume of fire has been noticeably down for many months now.

Russian .mil sources from top to bottom (well, middle to bottom…) bitch about it. Ukraine claims it, western sources claim it.

Is the shortage at the front exacerbated by an overall shortage? Junk stockpiles maybe? Who knows. But anecdotal evidence seems to lean to an acute shortage at the front being exacerbated by potential overall stockpile issues.

They really were firing at crazy rates from April-July or so from everything I recall.

They had control of the physical missiles which meant they could make them work.

Ukraine built the an225, sukhois, and other advanced projects.

Reversing a nuke is within the realm of possibility

So you think the Ukrainians will be able to hold the city when even Russian mortars can easily shell them from across the Dniper? Interesting....