Sketti thread

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(1.) Russia has not captured a strategic or even tactically important foot of ground in over a year.

(2.) Ukraine won the Battle of Hostomel and defeated the initial Russian invasion. A gamble they could capture Kiev in three days, force the Ukrainian government into exile and take the rest at leisure. Didn’t work out so well.

(3.) Ukraine counter-offensives have driven the Russian Army from Kiev, Kharkov, and Kherson. Forced full retreats.

(4.) Russia has also made zero progress taking two of their stated goals: capturing Donets & Luhansk Oblasts. ZERO Progress

(5.) Ukraine has successfully defended its airspace even outnumber 1,800 to 100 in the air. Ukrainian airspace is so dangerous Russia is afraid to deploy its VERY limited supply of SU-57 or even SU-35S for fear of them failing into Western hands.

(6.) For all the talk of “Increased Russian Production” they are still forced to beg Iran for cheap drones to use mostly to attack Ukrainian civilians. Russia would love to buy longer range missiles, but Iran says no. Same goes for missile production. Russia manages to build roughly 20-30 a month, and then immediately fire them off at civilian targets. Neither China nor previously mentioned Iran will sell them longer range missiles.

(7.) Russia once had the Black Sea essentially captured and threatened Odessa with an Amphibious attack. Those days are long over. 20% of the Black Sea Fleet is at the bottom, the Russian Navy has been forced to withdraw from Sevastopol, and now even further East Crimean ports are too dangerous. The blockade has been 100% broken and Ukrainian grain exports are flowing freely. Essentially the Black Sea is now a Ukrainian lake, which is funny because they don’t really have a Navy.

(8.) The “Long War” goes to Ukraine, they are supported directly by over 50 nations with economies over 60 trillion plus. Russia has an economy of 1.5 trillion and only has allies in; North Korea, Yemen, Syria. Attempts by Russia to get Belarus to join failed miserably. China and Iran are 100% Frenemies. Neither cares but they are willing to profit from Russian’s weakness. Hint: No Chinese Missiles, etc.

(9.) I place absolutely zero stock in any talk Western Nations are going to abandon Ukraine. Absolutely zero. Way too much ultra powerful Western money people have bet on Ukraine. Hint: Blackrock.

(10.) Remember Russia is spending 1.5 Billion on propaganda to undermine Western Support for Ukraine. Don't trust everything you read.

(11.) Well over 60% of the Russian tank inventory sits in Ukrainian scrap yards. The T-14 is hidden, the T-90M preforms no better than a forty-year-old T-72. Losses are so great 1950’s T-55’s are being brought back into service. It will take decades to rebuild the Russian tank brigades destroyed in Ukraine.

(12.) F-16's are coming.



I could go on but I am bored.

WWII Germany, while being bombed by the Allies, and with a buffoon of a leader, could not defeat a WWII USSR while it was being supplied by the US.

Once again, 2022 called and wants their talking points back.

You could go on citing anything you said, but you can't...because it's all old irrelevant info, or just completely made up.

You do realize Russia has their own factory for "Iranian drones" right? That Iranian drone problem is now a Russian drone problem and is about to grow by an exponential factor.  Did Russia also have to "beg" Iran to start a war in the Middle East diverting all resources and attention from Ukraine?

They don't need Chinese missiles, the Chinese are building plants for them right now to make their own.  How many missile plants is Ukraine building?  Iran and China not directly handing over long range missiles is literally the factor keeping our long range missiles out of Ukrainian hands.

Russia doesn't have to pass the FLOT with airpower. They are saturating the country with deep fires that reduce Ukraine's extremely limited air defense, and by proxy the west's extremely limited air defense.  It's almost as if that is standard Russian doctrine.  That Ukrainian AD is going to run out very quickly and already cannot push outside of their cities aside from a few quick ambushes.

I have no love for Russia but facts are facts, and you have none.

On Russias immediate border no less

Looks like Ukraine is going to survive, albeit with less land.

That is far better than most gave them at the start of this clusterfuck. I’d say they won

It’s the headline.

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LOL

For a guy with "No Love For Russia" you seem very desperate to keep up a false narrative...All is well, Russia is "Winning"...my post crushes it will absolute facts.

From you we just get Russian press releases and articles in which Russia is the only source...

Please prove my post wrong on any topic...you can't.

I can't prove or disprove what you completely make up. If your points are so solid why can't you cite anything to back them up?

However, I have more than proven your theories on western armament production dead wrong though.

As amusing as it is that Ukraine getting shells from India and old 2S1's from Eastern Europe is stunning and brave, but Russia "resorts" to begging Iran and China for help....lol.  What a joke.

Your plan could use some work though...

1) Ukraine...exists
2) ????
3) Victory to 2022 borders

I would like to hear more from him about defense in depth.

Wut?

Lol

Ukraine has spent the past two years grossly misrepresenting their position, and conducting controlled IO targeted at not only Russia, but their own benefactors. The west followed suit and has tried to keep a lid on all the negative effects and consequences towards ourselves as well.  

That only works for so long in the modern world. Once people find out the truth, which they always will, the blowback will be a thousand times worse than if they were honest the entire time.  This is what we are seeing now, and Ukraine and the west are about to become their own TLO in a future OIE/MDO war college lesson plan with how badly they fucked this up.

Ive been saying this from the start, and pretty much everything I stated from the week before the invasion has become reality. The Uke brigade doesn't get it, but their efforts may be well intentioned but have had more impact for Russia than Ukraine by far. The narrative doesn't exist anymore.

Russia has a history of wars and social turmoil. Which people break first? The Russians or Ukrainians. Anyone answering definitively is not being truthful. No one knows. This is far from being played out.

I see. So Russians are currently parading in Kiev? When will they be?

There are a lot of metrics which can be realistically measured to identify probable outcomes.  There are a lot where we can fairly definitively say a specific outcome is highly improbable.

At this point the Russians breaking before the Ukrainians is highly improbable, and that is pretty well accepted across the board.  That is fueled by momentum which is pretty definitively moving away from Ukraine's favor across multiple domains.




That is by no means the measure of success in this, and how only been the shifted goalpost from people who were convinced up until this fall the Russians would could be pushed completely out of Ukraine.

At this point the current FLOT is the new baseline and how much past that the Ukrainians lose is up to what strategy they shift to in order to minimize those losses.  That strategy is dependent upon how honest both Ukraine and the west is about the current situation, as we have seen the consequences of faking it.

Its a dumb headline.   But that's CNBC for you.

The official narrative position is the only way Russia can be considered the winner is taking Kiev in two days. After that they just push the goal posts to wherever and claim victory.

What does that have to do with anything?

That measure of success will work for the fantasy football Ukraine fans, but in reality won't really mean anything positive for Ukraine.

Russia started it.  It’s Russia’s war against Ukraine.  It’s of course replete with the typical Russian propaganda, much of which is guzzled down by Putinbots.

Currently?   Nothing.   They gave up on that objective after the opening phase of the war.

I can't believe anyone would really resort to this Kiev tactic.  It's ridiculous.

Their ability to sustain the war is running out swiftly.  Shit is getting destroyed faster than they can make it.  Time will tell.  The naysayers have been predicting the end of the conflict for well over a year now.  Yet here we are, with Russia still getting its shit pushed in.  For Putin is is a sunk costs scenario now.  It’s like a real life game of Risk.  Ukraine was always difficult to take and resulted in heavy losses for the attacker.  It’s down to the nitty gritty now.  US intel estimates 90 percent of Russia’s army has been lost.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/20/to-keep-down-losses-and-prolong-the-war-russia-is-holding-back-its-tanks-and-sending-infantry-to-attack-alone/?sh=7e4ecff77d61

Thread title is click-bait misleading.

“Ukraine’s war against Russia”?  WTF?  Russia attacked Ukraine.

So how ‘bout:  “Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s war of aggression”?

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Please feel free to point out what is “Completely Made Up”..

I am curious

I would worry more about Russia’s plan. Not one part of it has worked out so far.

No serious person has stated Ukraine is pushing Russian forces out of Ukraine at the moment. As for goal posts, the Russians set them when that was their initial gambit. Failed. Now the grind. Russia already failed in the opening moves. Neither nation will come close to exhausting avail manpower at the current rate. The statement that Russia can go on longer because of a larger pool is incorrect or at least irrelevant. National Will will decide this fight.

Why do people keeping linking to this like the article means anything?
Author

“Holly Ellyatt writes for CNBC.com focusing on European macro-economics and politics. She has led digital coverage of the European financial crisis, U.K. and euro zone politics, Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia and the war in Ukraine.  

Holly studied European Social and Political Studies at University College London (UCL) and then completed a MA in Broadcast Journalism at City University. She joined CNBC in 2012, having worked previously in digital, radio and film production.”

All we need are her pronouns..

The fact that Russia tried and failed. It's why the situation exists today.

How about at all. The two days play failed.

Those pronouns are likely less emotionally driven than some here.

And you base that on what exactly?

Ukrainian national will alone is not going to win anything.  They require direct external support to survive, Russia does not.




That's a great vignette for the history books, but two years have passed since then and obviously Russian goals and strategy have changed.  It has little to nothing to do as a variable determining the future of Ukraine anymore.

Every war in the history of man that lasted longer than 6 months.

Russia set the goal posts for success by the “3 Days To Take Kiev” plan and its catastrophic failure.

The new goal posts are set by Russia propagandists all over the internet, 99.9% based on nothing;

Russia is winning, Ukraine is losing, Nobody Supports Ukraine, ETC, ETC…

It amounts to nothing. Russia is screwed. Their only way out is. Putin car bomb, are 1917, 1941, etc level collapse and retreat back to the 2014 international agreed upon border. Then Russian and Ukrainian kids will stop being killed in a Russian dictators fantasy war..

So if western aid ceases Ukrainian willpower is going to pull them over the line?




Nothing you have said here makes any sense or is backed by facts and reality.

Their lines won't disintegrate overnight if that's what you're asking.

Overnight, a week, 6 months...is irrelevant.

You say national will is the determining factor here. It isn't. It's western support, which at this point is questionable in intent and capability.  Ukraine would have folded a long time ago without it regardless of national will.

Ukraine also hasn't exactly come together as a nation 9/11 style either.

Men fought with horses and wagons during the majority of the Blitzkrieg as I am sure you know. Agreed it (loss of western support) is a major factor. We will see if it is decisive.

Ukraine gets to survive with the majority of it's nation intact. That's a massive W since Russia was the much stronger power and supposed to win easily. Ukraine and the nation will survive and get to live away from the Russian sphere of influence and will be in the EU and nato.



Is Russia in kyiv now? No.

Zelenskyy still in power? Yes.

Has Russia accomplished the majority of their goals? No.

Russia set those goals initially when they invaded, expecting an easy victory. Has that happened? No.




1917 Germany defeated Russia.

1904 Japan Defeated Russia.

1990 Nato and the West defeated Russia.



Why did the Romanov dynasty end in 1917? Why wasn't there a Tsar in 1918, 1919, 1920, and a Russian empire then? What happened after fighting with Germany?

Something something Tsar mumbles "Nobody can win a war of attrition with me!"




Subs aren't made to take hits from cruise missiles which is what the original poster is alleging to. Your claim stated the Russian submarine was fine because subs were made to hit undersea mountains. Facts are different, however.





That boat is never going to move again and no, it's not moving because they have no time men or ability to move it.


@daoliver924

Absolutely irrelevant, and now we are getting plain ridiculous.

We'll see if it is decisive?  I really hope you are joking.

Ukraine did not make it this far on national will, they made it propped up by western money, artillery, and air defense, all of which are looking to fall apart regardless if the benefactors want to keep it going or not. Even with that support it is highly unlikely they manage anything but stalling until they reach negotiations to formally lose 20% of their country.  Without it they are completely dead in the water.  Kiev and Odessa will become firepits, and the FLOT will collapse inward.

Without western support the will to resist is meaningless.

Without the will to resist western support is meaningless.

Both are essential.

They have tubes and can make shells. How many? I guess we will see. The thing missing from the equation above is strange, the composition of the army. The Afghans had all that. It didn't help. We are at rifle brigades in trenches behind mines with arty in support phase. No one has any significant amount of armor to break the lines. No one has a mobile force to exploit any breakthrough. None of that changes without anymore Himars. This contines as long as the guy in the field can endure it and the population behind him can feed in replacements.

I really, really hope you are not serious.

About what? Is the global war on terror the extent of your military knowledge?