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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:16:51 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And China will. And biden will do nothing about it. perhaps chyna will but not during bidets presidency. so yes bidet will do nothing about it. i've said this repeatedly. folks hate bidet. i understand. but that hate blinds them to a key part of bidets makeup which is cold-warrior. he is more likely to use force against chyna if they try to take taiwan than whomever ends up in the white house in 2024, assuming its not bidet. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:17:32 PM EDT
[#2]
China will take Taiwan through economics not military.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:19:08 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Taiwan doesn't have much for fortifications. What they have going for them is they are a mountainous island that is naturally difficult to attack. They do have quite a few hidden tunnels with weapons, so there is that. They do, there is an island that prc must take prior to the main show or leave their lines vulnerable, it is a fortress. They also have written into law that each year beaches must be evaluated by the military for potential landing sites and plans drawn up to defend them in the case of prc mobilization. There are also significant airbases on the east cost built into mountains. edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinmen |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:19:48 PM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:19:55 PM EDT
[#5]
lol how are those combined arms exercises going? not well i heard.
2027. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:21:37 PM EDT
[#6]
Xi also told Biden point blank that Ukraine belongs to Putin and Russia, as it was part of the Soviet Union, and that America needs to butt out of there.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:21:39 PM EDT
[#7]
Can't we just tell them, K.. we'll sink every ship they send?
Let Pooh stew on that for a while.. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:24:13 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As long as we all understand that Option A will most certainly be bloody for everyone involved. I'm in agreeance with you, but we should be ready (and willing) to employ nukes as a result. I'm old school on the peaceful strength thing. It's high stakes but high reward. The alternative is the half assed goat fuck that is the Ukraine war. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:25:24 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It irritates me a lot. The MIC is acting like we're still in the 1990s, living in Peace Dividend times. From my outsider perspective anyway. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:26:40 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If the Taiwanese are half as tenacious as Ukrainians. They could quickly cut off any airborne force dropped in.  |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:27:22 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: China will take Taiwan through economics not military. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:28:11 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They do, there is an island that prc must take prior to the main show or leave their lines vulnerable, it is a fortress. They also have written into law that each year beaches must be evaluated by the military for potential landing sites and plans drawn up to defend them in the case of prc mobilization. There are also significant airbases on the east cost built into mountains. edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinmen China could easily bypass Kinmen. I'm quite aware of Taiwans's airbases, my in-laws live less than 4 miles from one of them. I drove by it last month in fact. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:29:17 PM EDT
[#13]
The timing will be prior to the election. So, any day now. I doubt they wait to see if Trump gets elected.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:46:53 PM EDT
[#14]
That's fine but big guy gets 10%.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 5:54:44 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: China makes older less complicated chips, South Korea and Taiwan make the advanced chips. You're mixing products and technologies up. Netherlands is also a big player in the industry https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2023/01/13/advanced-microchip-production-relies-on-taiwan/amp/ Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Not really true, Taiwan is actually behind China in chip manufacture. S Korea is Number 1, China 2 Taiwan 3 My son works for a company that makes chip implanters. Has done so for the last 8 years. He travels to Asia to set up these machines in the FAB. He has been to S. Korea 14 times, China 8, Taiwan 2, Germany 2, Utah 1. That means out of the 27 machines they sold (that he was involved with China bough about 30%). FYI there are only a handful of companies who make these. Most are in the states. Only 1 is in Japan. China makes older less complicated chips, South Korea and Taiwan make the advanced chips. You're mixing products and technologies up. Netherlands is also a big player in the industry https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2023/01/13/advanced-microchip-production-relies-on-taiwan/amp/ They make all 3 types of implanters and have sold at least 8 (he has gone there to set them up) to China in the last 8 years https://semiengineering.com/knowledge_centers/manufacturing/process/ion-implants/ https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8330278 Forbes also ignores that the CHIP act really didn't do anything for US chip making. There is a lot of claims that China's chipmaking isn't what it is but that is solely to keep the USA in the "OMG Taiwan makes all the things" mode. It is never brought up in any serious discussion on the actual process. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:03:02 PM EDT
[#16]
Well, the Big Guy handed Afghanistan so well.
He should do a great job with Taiwan. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:06:26 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Taiwan bought 20 billion in weapons back under Trump that are still not delivered https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/Taiwan-waiting-for-U.S.-F-16s-and-tanks-in-19bn-arms-sale-backlog https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_7220_jpeg-3065533.JPG |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:12:34 PM EDT
[#18]
Bad sign to be that direct given the current state of the world, seems like its beyond posturing to make themselves look strong to their own people. Xi and many other party members clearly want to try and make this happen in their lifetime. Next couple years could get real sporty real fast, we need to dump woke and get back to a realistic outlook for the future. I think they'll go for it around election time, doubt they care at this point whether a Dem or Repub wins.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:20:02 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Bad sign to be that direct given the current state of the world, seems like its beyond posturing to make themselves look strong to their own people. Xi and many other party members clearly want to try and make this happen in their lifetime. Next couple years could get real sporty real fast, we need to dump woke and get back to a realistic outlook for the future. I think they'll go for it around election time, doubt they care at this point whether a Dem or Repub wins. Agree with most of this, only distinguishing that I think it's China's internal situation and stability that's the clock on this, not anything the US elections do or don't do. If Xi has to blockade Taiwan/smash TSMC or anything else to keep his head off a stick---and the Chinese economic implosion may have that as a possible consequence---that's what he'll do. Our defensive posture changes how desperate he has to be before trying something, and whether he can wait for the ROC to potentially tell him publicly to go fuck himself by a stunning win of the pro-independence party. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:20:08 PM EDT
[#20]
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:22:31 PM EDT
[#21]
Let me guess.. This took place in the National Ass Fucking room. You know, the one that was recently christened earlier this week. Probably still had a funky odor to it?
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:26:14 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Taiwan gotta throw that "Republic of China" bullshit off their passport covers. No Taiwanese sovereignty having that on there. You have no idea what you're talking about, do you? 
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:27:42 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Funny, the company my son works for only make 7nm and 5nm implanters (they will be selling 3nm in 2024). They make all 3 types of implanters and have sold at least 8 (he has gone there to set them up) to China in the last 8 years https://semiengineering.com/knowledge_centers/manufacturing/process/ion-implants/ https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8330278 Forbes also ignores that the CHIP act really didn't do anything for US chip making. There is a lot of claims that China's chipmaking isn't what it is but that is solely to keep the USA in the "OMG Taiwan makes all the things" mode. It is never brought up in any serious discussion on the actual process. Good and interesting data point. I'll also note the forbes article is using production numbers from 2019, so I have no doubt the production ratios are different than what is shown. I'm also curious about the CHIP act. I understand you're saying it hasn't born any fruit yet. Do you think it ever will? I assume a big part of increasing production is creating the infrastructure to do so, and I doubt that would have already been accomplished since the bill was passed only 16 months ago. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:35:31 PM EDT
[#24]
The big problem for Taiwan is they don't get the latest weapons like F-35s. Obviously, we are worried about Chinese spies who likely are in the Taiwanese military and government. Just makes the situation so much more difficult, because if one country needs F-35s, it is Taiwan.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:37:14 PM EDT
[#25]
China isn't stupid. They do want to take Taiwan peacefully. If the PRC wants to do a forced entry and seize the island, they will do it when they believe they can withstand the economic fall out. They also want the infrastructure intact, I'm not entirely sure the US wouldn't destroy that if it looked like Taiwan was going to fall, I'm not sure the Taiwanese would sabotage it.
Companies are moving out of China, but they were doing that pre-covid, it is cheaper and easier to deal with other countries than it is with China. But, a lot of those parts still come from China. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:52:45 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Agree with most of this, only distinguishing that I think it's China's internal situation and stability that's the clock on this, not anything the US elections do or don't do. If Xi has to blockade Taiwan/smash TSMC or anything else to keep his head off a stick---and the Chinese economic implosion may have that as a possible consequence---that's what he'll do. Our defensive posture changes how desperate he has to be before trying something, and whether he can wait for the ROC to potentially tell him publicly to go fuck himself by a stunning win of the pro-independence party. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Bad sign to be that direct given the current state of the world, seems like its beyond posturing to make themselves look strong to their own people. Xi and many other party members clearly want to try and make this happen in their lifetime. Next couple years could get real sporty real fast, we need to dump woke and get back to a realistic outlook for the future. I think they'll go for it around election time, doubt they care at this point whether a Dem or Repub wins. Agree with most of this, only distinguishing that I think it's China's internal situation and stability that's the clock on this, not anything the US elections do or don't do. If Xi has to blockade Taiwan/smash TSMC or anything else to keep his head off a stick---and the Chinese economic implosion may have that as a possible consequence---that's what he'll do. Our defensive posture changes how desperate he has to be before trying something, and whether he can wait for the ROC to potentially tell him publicly to go fuck himself by a stunning win of the pro-independence party. Absolutely, I'm not as in tune with what dominoes need to fall for their domestic situation to get worse as some others here are but I know they have a lot of problems, last big things I remember are the real estate crisis/investment ponzi-scheme, banks seizing or refusing to distribute funds, handling of Covid etc... They have taken advantage of the western world, world in general and pissed off a lot of people, China is viewed in an increasingly negative lens even if some of the West's leaders and oligarch class worship them or more so their system of control. As more companies move or look to move outside of China for manufacturing that could really hurt them if it happens fast enough, not that I like stuff moving to India. There's a real opportunity amongst all this to move a lot of manufacturing/jobs/money back to the West but there would need to be some rapid policy changes in the US over the next 4-8 years for that to happen. It's possible but I'm afraid to get my hopes up. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:58:34 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Funny, the company my son works for only make 7nm and 5nm implanters (they will be selling 3nm in 2024). They make all 3 types of implanters and have sold at least 8 (he has gone there to set them up) to China in the last 8 years https://semiengineering.com/knowledge_centers/manufacturing/process/ion-implants/ https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8330278 Forbes also ignores that the CHIP act really didn't do anything for US chip making. There is a lot of claims that China's chipmaking isn't what it is but that is solely to keep the USA in the "OMG Taiwan makes all the things" mode. It is never brought up in any serious discussion on the actual process. Before I delve into the rest, you’re arguing that Taiwan is not the major {Samsung summer 2022 claims notwithstanding} provider of advanced microchips for the entire world and it’s just hype and propaganda to justify anti China policies? |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 6:59:46 PM EDT
[#28]
 Professor Chris Miller - “Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology” |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:09:33 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Biologic warfare. Commies don't give a fuck. send CCP agent to Taiwan government aaaa aaaa chooooo then wait a bit |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:13:52 PM EDT
[#30]
Quoted: Biden reacted to the naked threat by drooling manfully and then drifted off to sleep at the conference table in an intimidating power move (probably). https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/172926/xi_jpg-3065503.JPG NBC News WASHINGTON Chinese President Xi Jinping bluntly told President Joe Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but that the timing has not yet been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials. Xi told Biden in a group meeting attended by a dozen American and Chinese officials that China's preference is to take Taiwan peacefully, not by force, the officials said. The Chinese leader also referenced public predictions by U.S. military leaders who say that Xi plans to take Taiwan in 2025 or 2027, telling Biden that they were wrong because he has not set a time frame, according to the two current and one former official briefed on the meeting. Chinese officials also asked in advance of the summit that Biden make a public statement after the meeting saying that the United States supports China's goal of peaceful unification with Taiwan and does not support Taiwanese independence, they said. The White House rejected the Chinese request. A spokesperson for the National Security Council declined to comment... During the summit in San Francisco, Xi expressed concerns about the candidates running for president of Taiwan in next month's election, according to U.S. officials. Xi also noted the influence that the U.S. has on Taiwan, they said. When Biden asked that China respect Taiwan's electoral process, Xi responded by saying that peace is "all well and good" but that China needs to eventually move toward a resolution, one U.S. official said.... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is essentially Xi's longtime position on Taiwan, oft stated bluntly to his domestic audience, usually softened and distanced somewhat for foreign consumption. Surprise! he actually means it. People also used to think he was kidding about returning to hardline authoritarian communism, since it would kill the goose that laid the golden economy, but it seems that he meant that too. The best chance for China to retake Taiwan is while Joe is playing as the POTUS. If the next president is a republican I foresee some roadblocks to Xi's plans. kwg |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:17:59 PM EDT
[#31]
The correct answer to the request to support peaceful reunification was:
"Yes, the United States supports an eventual peaceful reunification of China though a process of democratic reforms in the mainland." |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:26:33 PM EDT
[#32]
FJB
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:32:18 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Fuck China FJB |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:35:24 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They thought they eventually would a few years ago, but the Chinese economy is now stumbling and probably headed for long term stagnation at best, and pro-independence/anti-CCP feeling has increased in Taiwan for a number of reasons. The upcoming election is somewhat a referendum on their relationship, and it's shaping up to see Taiwanese voters rebuke the CCP. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: China will take Taiwan through economics not military. Interesting times. The next several weeks with be interesting to say the least |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:50:20 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Good and interesting data point. I'll also note the forbes article is using production numbers from 2019, so I have no doubt the production ratios are different than what is shown. I'm also curious about the CHIP act. I understand you're saying it hasn't born any fruit yet. Do you think it ever will? I assume a big part of increasing production is creating the infrastructure to do so, and I doubt that would have already been accomplished since the bill was passed only 16 months ago. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Funny, the company my son works for only make 7nm and 5nm implanters (they will be selling 3nm in 2024). They make all 3 types of implanters and have sold at least 8 (he has gone there to set them up) to China in the last 8 years https://semiengineering.com/knowledge_centers/manufacturing/process/ion-implants/ https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8330278 Forbes also ignores that the CHIP act really didn't do anything for US chip making. There is a lot of claims that China's chipmaking isn't what it is but that is solely to keep the USA in the "OMG Taiwan makes all the things" mode. It is never brought up in any serious discussion on the actual process. Good and interesting data point. I'll also note the forbes article is using production numbers from 2019, so I have no doubt the production ratios are different than what is shown. I'm also curious about the CHIP act. I understand you're saying it hasn't born any fruit yet. Do you think it ever will? I assume a big part of increasing production is creating the infrastructure to do so, and I doubt that would have already been accomplished since the bill was passed only 16 months ago. That same company already had plans to build a new FAB with non-taxpayer money After they got taxpayer guarantees of if I remember 20billion, they delayed the project indefinitely. Kind of like 123 solar. Got money from Obama and left for China |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:51:06 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well China we will flatten your cities, so you decide if it's worth it. I doubt we will be doing any of that. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:52:47 PM EDT
[#37]
If we only had grown a robust semiconductor industry here...and it's never too late.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:52:53 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: China could easily bypass Kinmen. I'm quite aware of Taiwans's airbases, my in-laws live less than 4 miles from one of them. I drove by it last month in fact. You dont think kinman launching volleys of antishipping missiles at supply ships would cause the prc pause? |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:58:03 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Before I delve into the rest, you're arguing that Taiwan is not the major {Samsung summer 2022 claims notwithstanding} provider of advanced microchips for the entire world and it's just hype and propaganda to justify anti China policies? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Funny, the company my son works for only make 7nm and 5nm implanters (they will be selling 3nm in 2024). They make all 3 types of implanters and have sold at least 8 (he has gone there to set them up) to China in the last 8 years https://semiengineering.com/knowledge_centers/manufacturing/process/ion-implants/ https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8330278 Forbes also ignores that the CHIP act really didn't do anything for US chip making. There is a lot of claims that China's chipmaking isn't what it is but that is solely to keep the USA in the "OMG Taiwan makes all the things" mode. It is never brought up in any serious discussion on the actual process. Before I delve into the rest, you're arguing that Taiwan is not the major {Samsung summer 2022 claims notwithstanding} provider of advanced microchips for the entire world and it's just hype and propaganda to justify anti China policies? FYI TSMC has 2 FABS in mainland China, One in The US out of 12 total. All Taiwan Semi companies have FABs in mainland China |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 7:59:20 PM EDT
[#40]
My reply would have been, “the three gorges dam and mainland China’s industry would be taken at the time of your choosing, as well.”
But, Biden lacks fortitude. Or, we can’t upset the balance of |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:00:05 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If we only had grown a robust semiconductor industry here...and it's never too late. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:03:14 PM EDT
[#42]
A strong US President would then sell Taiwan some top notch US military equipment for their own defense against China.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:04:56 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: how would China take taiwan if taiwan fortified their island? I mean, anti sub and ship mines, AA guns...arty...etc. The “not by force” tells you what you need to know. Subversion & infiltration. IE: Hong Kong |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:06:13 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You mean took the envelope, looked at the zeros on the check, shuffled to the bathroom to poop ...wound up in a broom closet, pooped anyway. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:08:09 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Taiwan bought 20 billion in weapons back under Trump that are still not delivered https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/Taiwan-waiting-for-U.S.-F-16s-and-tanks-in-19bn-arms-sale-backlog https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_7220_jpeg-3065533.JPG @CarmelBytheSea The question is, Do you think the weapons delay is intentional? |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:17:13 PM EDT
[#46]
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:26:35 PM EDT
[#47]
Just secretly supply Taiwan with the materials they need to build their own nuclear weapons. We’ve probably done it before with a certain ally.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:30:34 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I have repeatedly predicted here that China's first move will be a massive missile attack on the chip fabs in addition to strikes on military targets. The Chinese know they will not be able to take these chip fabs intact. However, by destroying them, China will reduce the U.S. incentive to defend Taiwan. What would follow would be a blockade of Taiwan by China, either initiated immediately or after a short period of time, maybe even a year or two. I would remind those here of China's response to COVID, which was to shut down internal travel but to invite the infected to travel throughout the world. Similarly, China is undergoing an economic contagion right now that (the breadth of which the West in general fails to understand) which it will need to spread around the world lest it be at a competitive disadvantage. This can be done by eliminating much of the worlds semiconductor manufacturing and nearly all of the most advanced semiconductor production through attacking Taiwan. While China wants to achieve victory in Taiwan politically and not militarily, the economic misery that will prevail in China for at least the next five years makes that absolutely impractical. Also, just like an embargo of the key goods at the time of WWII, oil and steel, caused action by Japan, so will the U.S.'s embargo of advanced chips to China (particularly with regards to AI) cause the same result. Please note that I support this embargo, but we do need to be aware of the consequences. Excellent post. Everyone should read it. |
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:37:19 PM EDT
[#49]
Get rid of all the illegals in this country and replace them with the citizenry of Taiwan move their chip building over here.
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Posted: 12/20/2023 8:39:46 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: @CarmelBytheSea The question is, Do you think the weapons delay is intentional? @Zoinks always told me “Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.” Honestly I have no idea, the bottlenecks could be due to the pandemic that didn’t subside until 2022 and it the labor issues we have or poor planning or prioritizing certain shared components for Ukraine. At this time I can say with certainty anything but Taiwan is buying 19 billion MORE weapons from us in 2024 on top of the past 19 billion owed. Unless China never attacks or takes it’s sweet time, this doesn’t bode well and due to air defense shortage now Japan may end up assisting Ukraine because our own air defense situation for Patriots is I adequate. |
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