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Quoted: Other than the 737MAX, the rest of the Boeing fleet haven't shown any unusual behavior conditions. If you REALLY want to freak out, read the reports on the flight control systems on the Airbus accidents that have happened in the past 25 years. And their flight control design philosophy spans across their entire product spectrum, so they all share similar design constraints/weaknesses. View Quote Go back maybe 20 years and there were three 737 crashes. One in Colorado Springs that I saw the smoke from the crash. Another possibly in Pennsylvania and a third in a river in the far east. I was wrong. It was 31 years ago. United Flight 585. Colorado Springs USAir 427. This may be the Pennsylvania crash |
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Quoted: Maybe my 2,500 T-45 Navy IP hours and 18,500 B737-200/300/500/700/800/Max hours made me talk a little too technical. Sorry about that. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Tough one. Hate to speculate on cause. But if the 737 gets too fast in a dive, really overspeeds, a mach wave will form over the horizontal stab making it impossible to pull out. With pod slung engines, in a dive, throttles need to be pulled to Idle, exacerbating the pitch down, but lessening thrust, elevator and stab trim use to pitch the nose up has to be judicious so as not to over G the Aircraft. NG in certain weight, altitude and wind conditions can overspeed just easing over out of altitude at VNAV TOD (vertical navigation at top of descent) on autopilot. Just have to monitor and anticipate it, click off auto throttles and autopilot if necessary, and lesson the rate of descent. Sometimes a mountain wave issue, but usually not violent enough to depart the aircraft. Maybe my 2,500 T-45 Navy IP hours and 18,500 B737-200/300/500/700/800/Max hours made me talk a little too technical. Sorry about that. Pffft... Fucking rookie... |
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Quoted: It began to break up in flight. I’m divided between catastrophic parts failure - like the tail came off. Or pilot suicide. Even at that, possibly terrorist related/bomb. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/148484/F5F0653E-D2E0-4500-BCD3-61A733032398-2321165.jpg Edit: From the shitty videos of the plane going down, it looks like the tail is missing. Not even a pixel bump for it. Could be the angle of the video too. But, judging by the above… tail came apart, went into a nose dive. Pilot woke up, tried to save it, rest of the plane came apart. View Quote -31k FPM |
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Quoted: engineer here (not the train kind). you are confusing your emotions with statistics. if you are at a US airport flying domestically, and concerned about the risk of dying -- whatever you do, do not drive home. View Quote On average driving is more deadly, but the modes of death aren't the same. |
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I corrected it. Looked at total non fleet jet (SNA orange and white was included) and listed total jet. 2,200 Jet IP and only 15k 737.
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Quoted: Go back maybe 20 years and there were three 737 crashes. One in Colorado Springs that I saw the smoke from the crash. Another possibly in Pennsylvania and a third in a river in the far east. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Other than the 737MAX, the rest of the Boeing fleet haven't shown any unusual behavior conditions. If you REALLY want to freak out, read the reports on the flight control systems on the Airbus accidents that have happened in the past 25 years. And their flight control design philosophy spans across their entire product spectrum, so they all share similar design constraints/weaknesses. Go back maybe 20 years and there were three 737 crashes. One in Colorado Springs that I saw the smoke from the crash. Another possibly in Pennsylvania and a third in a river in the far east. RIP to the poor folks on this one. |
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Quoted: There’s a great documentary about the MAX and the flight control problems it has. The new 737s still use the old airframes. The whole upgrade process was hastily thrown together to compete with airbus. It is a dangerous plane and it always has been. View Quote How long have you had your 737 type rating? |
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Quoted: engineer here (not the train kind). you are confusing your emotions with statistics. if you are at a US airport flying domestically, and concerned about the risk of dying -- whatever you do, do not drive home. View Quote Even a gun is more likely to kill you in an accident than a plane, and that's saying something, considering how few fatal gun accidents there are. |
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Quoted: Maybe my 2,200 T-45 Navy IP hours and 15,000 B737-200/300/500/700/800/Max hours made me talk a little too technical. Sorry about that. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Tough one. Hate to speculate on cause. But if the 737 gets too fast in a dive, really overspeeds, a mach wave will form over the horizontal stab making it impossible to pull out. With pod slung engines, in a dive, throttles need to be pulled to Idle, exacerbating the pitch down, but lessening thrust, elevator and stab trim use to pitch the nose up has to be judicious so as not to over G the Aircraft. NG in certain weight, altitude and wind conditions can overspeed just easing over out of altitude at VNAV TOD (vertical navigation at top of descent) on autopilot. Just have to monitor and anticipate it, click off auto throttles and autopilot if necessary, and lesson the rate of descent. Sometimes a mountain wave issue, but usually not violent enough to depart the aircraft. Maybe my 2,200 T-45 Navy IP hours and 15,000 B737-200/300/500/700/800/Max hours made me talk a little too technical. Sorry about that. LMAO Nice!! Not only did you rip that purse and toss it out the window, the arm was still attached to it. |
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Not a pilot, not an engineer. Not even on TV. Kinda would think if the wings stayed on it would be a lot of work to get a plane that size to go straight down for that long. Even headed straight down the wings will provide lift pulling it away from a straight dive. That assumes the wings were still on.
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Quoted: Note: That is the max decent that FlightRadar24 can record. If you calculate the actual decent rate, it peaked at over 50K FPM!!! View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: -31k FPM Note: That is the max decent that FlightRadar24 can record. If you calculate the actual decent rate, it peaked at over 50K FPM!!! Ahem... ...”descent.” Thanks for all you do. |
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Aviation Herald summary article posted today with pictures of the crash site.
https://www.avherald.com/h?article=4f64be2f&opt=0 |
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Quoted: I corrected it. Looked at total non fleet jet (SNA orange and white was included) and listed total jet. 2,200 Jet IP and only 15k 737. View Quote Based on your 737 experience, any significance to what blancolirio noted in his video? It looked like the trouble started at about the same point in the route as the point in the previous flight where they would have started their initial decent? Is that a point where they switch off or change autopilot settings? Maybe someone fat fingered the input to the autopilot? I am not a pilot so not even sure what gets put in. Do you plug in a new flight level? So maybe they wanted to go from 29,000 ft to 20,000 feet but they left off a zero so programed the AP to go to 2,000 ft, and in doing so it decided to nose dive? |
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Quoted: How long have you had your 737 type rating? View Quote Having a type rating doesn’t make a pilot an expert in the airframe. I know many ‘tards with 737 types who haven’t a clue beyond the gouge how the airplane works or remote understanding of aerodynamics. It’s amazing how many of these aviation armchair quarterbacks know more about the 737 than a good portion of type rated pilots. A pilot can buy a 737 type rating from one of many simulator facilities and be complete in 10-12 days. No way an expert on the airframe. |
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Quoted: I’d guess that fuselage was made here in Wichita. View Quote It was, but interestingly a high percentage of both the horizontal and vertical stabs are made in China. The remainder are Korean. That tail assembly is ungodly strong. I know, I supervised 737 empennage for two years. FWIW, my money is going with a human event, or Chinese maintenance. I just don't see this being a catastrophic airframe failure. The NGs are such a well known commodity the odds of an unrecoverable runaway flight control system don't seem very high, either*. *T45 says it's doable, but in the hundreds of thousands of hours on the combined fleet how many have been lost to that scenario? I would assume it's trained/sim'd pretty extensively if the potential to lose the aircraft is that high. |
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View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Tough one. Hate to speculate on cause. But if the 737 gets too fast in a dive, really overspeeds, a mach wave will form over the horizontal stab making it impossible to pull out. With pod slung engines, in a dive, throttles need to be pulled to Idle, exacerbating the pitch down, but lessening thrust, elevator and stab trim use to pitch the nose up has to be judicious so as not to over G the Aircraft. NG in certain weight, altitude and wind conditions can overspeed just easing over out of altitude at VNAV TOD (vertical navigation at top of descent) on autopilot. Just have to monitor and anticipate it, click off auto throttles and autopilot if necessary, and lesson the rate of descent. Sometimes a mountain wave issue, but usually not violent enough to depart the aircraft. Maybe my 2,500 T-45 Navy IP hours and 18,500 B737-200/300/500/700/800/Max hours made me talk a little too technical. Sorry about that. https://c.tenor.com/K9-SqJMNjkEAAAAC/emotional-damage.gif Attached File |
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Quoted: Based on your 737 experience, any significance to what blancolirio noted in his video? It looked like the trouble started at about the same point in the route as the point in the previous flight where they would have started their initial decent? Is that a point where they switch off or change autopilot settings? Maybe someone fat fingered the input to the autopilot? I am not a pilot so not even sure what gets put in. Do you plug in a new flight level? So maybe they wanted to go from 29,000 ft to 20,000 feet but they left off a zero so programed the AP to go to 2,000 ft, and in doing so it decided to nose dive? View Quote It doesn't really work like that, but you are correct in that things tend to happen whenever we make a change. The Chinese use the autopilot about 98% of the time. I seriously doubt that they were hand flying from top of descent. It's just too early to know, and we have to see the "black box" data. On a side note, flying in Chinese airspace is a real pain in the ass. They have a very limited route structure due to the preponderance of military airspace, and they constantly require you to fly offsets and at inefficient altitudes. |
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Having read through this thread I'll swing my purse now . I have a few hours as Captain in the 737-300G/700/800/900ER, along with various other military and commerical aircraft from MD, Boeing and Airbus. I work with our safety division from time to time and had actually given training to China Eastern pilots when they first got 757s over 20 years ago. To say they are bad would be an understatement. I described them as "Beyond Bad". Bad was insufficient in describing how bad they were. In reading one of the posted articles it stated there were 3 pilots and a safety officer? What was going on in that flight deck. Hopefully they find the CVR and FDR and the Chinese government doesn't cover up what is discovered.
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Quoted: The 737 Max was a massive fuckup by Boeing. I don't need to be an engineer or 737 pilot to see that. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: How long have you had your 737 type rating? The 737 Max was a massive fuckup by Boeing. I don't need to be an engineer or 737 pilot to see that. Was the 737NG a massive fuckup, too? |
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Quoted: Considering how hard it hit, I'd say there is a fairly slim chance of the former. And no chance of the latter. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Hopefully they find the CVR and FDR and the Chinese government doesn't cover up what is discovered. Considering how hard it hit, I'd say there is a fairly slim chance of the former. And no chance of the latter. Are they not rated to survive those sorts of impact speeds? If it *were* terrorism in the form of a hijacking attempt, I doubt we'll ever know. |
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Quoted: A pilot can buy a 737 type rating from one of many simulator facilities and be complete in 10-12 days. No way an expert on the airframe. View Quote |
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Quoted: The NG is a good aircraft. All planes have their quirks and it has a few but I liked flying them. Not a 757 but a good aircraft. View Quote One of my favorites as far as being a passenger goes. They just seem sporty. One trip in 2019 to Anaheim I knew we were coming in a bit high and hot, touched down about half way down the runway. Found out how good the brakes were. Had to turn around on the threshold to get back to the taxiway. We were last to exit as the Mrs is disabled and needs assistance while flying. Pilot was standing at the cabin door as we were finally deplaning and I said "Came in a bit hot Skipper ?" He just pulled a big grin and gave a wink. LOL |
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Quoted: One of my favorites as far as being a passenger goes. They just seem sporty. One trip in 2019 to Anaheim I knew we were coming in a bit high and hot, touched down about half way down the runway. Found out how good the brakes were. Had to turn around on the threshold to get back to the taxiway. We were last to exit as the Mrs is disabled and needs assistance while flying. Pilot was standing at the cabin door as we were finally deplaning and I said "Came in a bit hot Skipper ?" He just pulled a big grin and gave a wink. LOL View Quote Great story! |
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Quoted: The FDR and CVR are designed to survive those types of impacts. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Considering how hard it hit, I'd say there is a fairly slim chance of the former. And no chance of the latter. The FDR and CVR are designed to survive those types of impacts. Good to know. I know that they occasionally haven't been recoverable. Figured the hardest, worst possible impacts might sometimes be too much for them. |
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Quoted: One of my favorites as far as being a passenger goes. They just seem sporty. One trip in 2019 to Anaheim I knew we were coming in a bit high and hot, touched down about half way down the runway. Found out how good the brakes were. Had to turn around on the threshold to get back to the taxiway. We were last to exit as the Mrs is disabled and needs assistance while flying. Pilot was standing at the cabin door as we were finally deplaning and I said "Came in a bit hot Skipper ?" He just pulled a big grin and gave a wink. LOL View Quote I had a similar one years ago in India. Was flying I think from Bangalore back to Mumbai to connect to my return flight to the US. Those of you that have been to India know monsoon season is a real bugger on air travel. As you come into Mumbai from the east you come over a small range of mountains, and as we did we then dropped to probably only a couple thousand feet to get under the weather. Having flown that route a lot I was a little nervous knowing we were still a long way from the airport. A few miles out we went into a complete deluge...like hardly able to see past the wingtips type of rain. I was over the wings so heard and him configuring for landing, but I had absolutely no visual reference for speed or altitude. All of a sudden we were on the run way...no flare, no nothing, just flew it HARD into the runway in what felt like a 3 point touch down, and then mashed the brakes and thrust reversers. Definitely the most violent deceleration I've been a part of in my years of flying as a passenger. There were a lot of faces of disbelief and confusion as people were absolutely not expecting to land when we did. A guy in the row ahead of me piped up and said "must have been Naval Aviator, he just slammed her on the deck and hoped to catch a wire." |
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Quoted: The FDR and CVR are designed to survive those types of impacts. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Considering how hard it hit, I'd say there is a fairly slim chance of the former. And no chance of the latter. The FDR and CVR are designed to survive those types of impacts. Then why don't they design the whole plane that way? |
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Quoted: It doesn't really work like that, but you are correct in that things tend to happen whenever we make a change. The Chinese use the autopilot about 98% of the time. I seriously doubt that they were hand flying from top of descent. It's just too early to know, and we have to see the "black box" data. On a side note, flying in Chinese airspace is a real pain in the ass. They have a very limited route structure due to the preponderance of military airspace, and they constantly require you to fly offsets and at inefficient altitudes. View Quote I appreciate the insight there. As an engineer that does a lot of failure analysis and investigations in a totally unrelated industry, things like that always stand out to me as possible "whoopsie" moments. With so much digital control these day it is really easy to literally fat finger something, put in an extra zero or leave one out that can make a real difference. What is the normal procedure then at top of decent? Assuming it is some changes to inputs to the autopilot to fly the expected approach? |
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Quoted: Then why don't they design the whole plane that way? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes |
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Quoted: If they were lucky. Would require a decompress. Hopefully when the tail (or whatever) departed the aircraft it took the pressure bulkhead with it. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Everyone on board was knocked out / dead from the initial drop from 30k. The fright probably only lasted a few seconds before they were sleeping. I have seen nothing to indicate that general conditions would have made consciousness unlikely. Loss of pressure, G loading, temperature, noise, etc... All were likely well within the range that a human could survive for a minute at least. |
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Quoted: Lol thats a horrible comparison. The B-2 is fly by wire and cant perform without functioning flight computers. Especially if theres an issue with the air data probes (which caused one to crash). The Boeing 737 NG is an old fashioned stick and rudder aircraft with no fly-by wire. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Airplanes don't go straight when the tail is missing... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Vb7IKhVKu4 Lol thats a horrible comparison. The B-2 is fly by wire and cant perform without functioning flight computers. Especially if theres an issue with the air data probes (which caused one to crash). The Boeing 737 NG is an old fashioned stick and rudder aircraft with no fly-by wire. |
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Quoted: One of my favorites as far as being a passenger goes. They just seem sporty. One trip in 2019 to Anaheim I knew we were coming in a bit high and hot, touched down about half way down the runway. Found out how good the brakes were. Had to turn around on the threshold to get back to the taxiway. We were last to exit as the Mrs is disabled and needs assistance while flying. Pilot was standing at the cabin door as we were finally deplaning and I said "Came in a bit hot Skipper ?" He just pulled a big grin and gave a wink. LOL View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: The NG is a good aircraft. All planes have their quirks and it has a few but I liked flying them. Not a 757 but a good aircraft. One of my favorites as far as being a passenger goes. They just seem sporty. One trip in 2019 to Anaheim I knew we were coming in a bit high and hot, touched down about half way down the runway. Found out how good the brakes were. Had to turn around on the threshold to get back to the taxiway. We were last to exit as the Mrs is disabled and needs assistance while flying. Pilot was standing at the cabin door as we were finally deplaning and I said "Came in a bit hot Skipper ?" He just pulled a big grin and gave a wink. LOL Had a flight on a SWA 737 into MKE back around 2010, we were running about 10 minutes late and were cleared to land 7R with a REALLY cooking tailwind. We were clearly faster across the ground than usual as we crossed the threshold. Plunked it down carrier style, and full brakes/reversers........we pulled in the thrust reversers and rolled off at the very end of the runway onto taxiway November still doing about 20kts. Made up that 10 minutes by not having to fly past the airport out over the lake and come back west to land on 25L lol. |
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