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Posted: 2/14/2017 5:18:10 AM EST
[#1]
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Posted: 2/14/2017 6:44:48 AM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What you can piece together is a timeline on when this shit happens, I believe these are flood years, 68, 86-87, 96-97, 2016-17. Anyone see a pattern? We have dry spells followed by flooding, you would think they could figure this out I 'member 81-82 having a bit of rain/flood issues as well. Other than that, carry on. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 6:54:47 AM EST
[#3]
And if the dam breaks open many years too soon
And if there is no room upon the hill And if your head explodes with dark forbodings too I'll see you on the dark side of the moon |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:11:57 AM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with. I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. Please stick around, we need an actual geologist in this thread. It looks like the schist is about to hit the fan. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:21:05 AM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Don't get your hopes up, he did go to Chico... https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Chico%20State "A university in Chico, CA once named the number 1 party school in the nation by playboy magazine. Kegs of beer can be found on the lawn of every house, there are parties every night, and the students still find time to study" Find the rest of that quote. I 'member because I went to college in Wisconsin that year, or the next. The rest of the quote went something like….. "you'll notice that we did not include any schools from Wisconsin. That's because Wisconsin schools are professional partiers, and the rest of the nation is nothing but amateurs." They weren't lying. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:22:06 AM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I 'member 81-82 having a bit of rain/flood issues as well. Other than that, carry on. The climatologist that I spoke with yesterday made numerous comments on the 82-83 weather and flooding in CA. He gave the impression that this year is matching up with that year and the little stuff in between being just minor blips. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:25:27 AM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The climatologist that I spoke with yesterday made numerous comments on the 82-83 weather and flooding in CA. He gave the impression that this year is matching up with that year and the little stuff in between being just minor blips. If you go up one post, you'll realize why I missed it by a year. 1981 is apparently no longer in my memory bank. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:27:01 AM EST
[#8]
Some might find this useful. I have only skimmed a tiny bit.
Geology of the Oroville Quadrangle, California : Creely R.S. 1926- Pub: (1965) |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:29:05 AM EST
[#9]
8-station index for precipitation; Northern Sierra-Nevada basins. Wettest (82-83) and most recent 5-years plotted for comparison.
 Attached File |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:30:55 AM EST
[#10]
Any pics or vids of where the rocks/bags were placed yesterday? The big hole downstream near the end of the e-spillway near the parking lot?
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:31:21 AM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The elevation of the spillway intakes seems to be pretty much the same as the bottom of the normal boat ramp. The picture showing the helicopters sitting on it showed it as dead level, and not sloping upward/downward. So I'm still thinking this is around 850 ft needed to get to the spillway gates: https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/41058/oroville-intake-low-water-boat-ramp-elevation-146414.png It also shows there's not really much to the emergency weir wall, especially once the parking lot starts. What it also doesn't show is how much erosion, if any, has happened to the backside of the E-weir from the flow out the spillway. There might be none, there might be a lot. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:32:08 AM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Some might find this useful. I have only skimmed a tiny bit. Geology of the Oroville Quadrangle, California : Creely R.S. 1926- Pub: (1965) Thanks for the link. This shit fascinates me. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:36:29 AM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Please stick around, we need an actual geologist in this thread. It looks like the schist is about to hit the fan. It's ok! I'm a geologist. I agree with his assessment, the hill may be granite, but whatever that spillway is has been through some shit, definitely not solid granite, from the pictures I was thinking it looked like some kind of shear zone they just happened to park the espill on top of. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:37:06 AM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If you go up one post, you'll realize why I missed it by a year. 1981 is apparently no longer in my memory bank. lol. I wasn't trying to correct you on the years you mentioned, just that there was something major around that timeline. I sure as heck don't remember any of the weather in CA at that time, I was in my last year of Jr High out here in Husker country then. It must have been major because this climatologist kept making references to it. Edit> I see marksjeep just put up the graph. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:39:07 AM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Any pics or vids of where the rocks/bags were placed yesterday? The big hole downstream near the end of the e-spillway near the parking lot? Those bags of rocks are going to wash down to the riverbed the first few hours of the next e-spill overtopping, which will create high water backing up to the Thermalito pool and will start the washing away of the entire earthen dam. Me thinks they fucked it up right here. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:39:32 AM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Thanks for the link. This shit fascinates me. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:41:05 AM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Those bags of rocks are going to wash down to the riverbed the first few hours of the next e-spill overtopping, which will create high water backing up to the Thermalito pool and will start the washing away of the entire earthen dam. Me thinks they fucked it up right here. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:47:50 AM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Is there a way to take that forecast and calculate how many acre/feet of water that could potentially drop on the Oroville dam watershed? If my rudimentary math is correct, the worst event in the history of the damn added 200,000 acre/feet of water beyond the amount that the current spillway is able to drain. In the last 24 hours, they have already lowered the lake by 120,000 acre/feet. by the time the storm hits, it should have a capacity to absorb 360,000 acre/feet of water beyond the amount they can drain at the current release rate. The watershed is 2,048,000 acres. So each inch of rain is 170,666 acre feet. If they get 4 inches that's 682k acre feet. 5 would be 853k acre feet. Will be interesting to see which path they take. Fully opening the gates, or trusting the espillway with a bandaid on it. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:49:44 AM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Please stick around, we need an actual geologist in this thread. It looks like the schist is about to hit the fan. Gniess... |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:49:45 AM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
that looks like it's just the text, what would be great would be a copy of that group map quad, and maybe a few around it as well. Found it, it's on the Chico quad: http://www.quake.ca.gov/gmaps/rgm/chico/chico.html Chico quad |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:50:54 AM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wow, the definition of Argillite does not give high confidence! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wow, the definition of Argillite does not give high confidence! I think the color matches mafic volcanic rock, not argillite. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 7:56:27 AM EST
[#22]
Looks like the dam is built on "metavolcanic/metamorphic rocks of unknown age". Which means not great things. It's definitely not as sturdy as full on granite, and likely less strong than the original sedimentary rock that it was previous to intrusion/metamorphosis
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:03:36 AM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Please stick around, we need an actual geologist in this thread. It looks like the schist is about to hit the fan. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with. I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. Please stick around, we need an actual geologist in this thread. It looks like the schist is about to hit the fan. Yes, having a geologist is sedimentary, my dear Watson. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:03:54 AM EST
[#24]
I've learned a lot about dams and related things, Thanks for the education.
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:09:55 AM EST
[#25]
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:12:33 AM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Find the rest of that quote. I 'member because I went to college in Wisconsin that year, or the next. The rest of the quote went something like….. "you'll notice that we did not include any schools from Wisconsin. That's because Wisconsin schools are professional partiers, and the rest of the nation is nothing but amateurs." They weren't lying. This is correct. I'm at ground zero! |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:17:58 AM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's ok! I'm a geologist. I agree with his assessment, the hill may be granite, but whatever that spillway is has been through some shit, definitely not solid granite, from the pictures I was thinking it looked like some kind of shear zone they just happened to park the espill on top of. Thank you. We really need some real geologists here. That new hole they are looking at, below the e-spill, looks to me to be glacial. Lots of basalt boulders mixed in with red dirt. You can see the left over VW sized boulders sitting on whats left, with hard hats walking around taking notes. The striata (sp?) there is vertical there and looks like a boulders and dirt mix shoved up against the side of the mountain. What do you think? I make no claims of knowledge here. I just searched back 20 pages and can't find the image I'm looking for. All I know about rocks is from that song from the '60s, though. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:19:52 AM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
At this rate of around 2.88 inches of drop per hour they will only drop the level by around 17ft in the next 3 or so days. This is rounding up a few hours and the 8.5ft to 9ft. So no they are not getting near the 50ft mark, and this is assuming they amount of water coming in doesn't change, which we all know it will with the projected rains. The best they can do is pray that everything holds together. I would keep the people out of that valley as long as possible, but the problem is we are just getting into the season of normal rise in the dam. So how long can they keep people out of their houses and businesses? Even if nothing changes this is a huge cluster. Praying for all involved that no loss of life will happen. The cost to taxpayers will be huge no matter what, and we can thank the Governor of California past and present for that, had they just maintained the dam we wouldn't even be talking about this. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
In the 26 hours since the OMG RUN Order, they've managed to lower the reservoir by an astounding 8.5 feet. I don't see that matching the "Down 50 feet" by Thursday they gave at one of the Baghdad Bob Conferences. At this rate of around 2.88 inches of drop per hour they will only drop the level by around 17ft in the next 3 or so days. This is rounding up a few hours and the 8.5ft to 9ft. So no they are not getting near the 50ft mark, and this is assuming they amount of water coming in doesn't change, which we all know it will with the projected rains. The best they can do is pray that everything holds together. I would keep the people out of that valley as long as possible, but the problem is we are just getting into the season of normal rise in the dam. So how long can they keep people out of their houses and businesses? Even if nothing changes this is a huge cluster. Praying for all involved that no loss of life will happen. The cost to taxpayers will be huge no matter what, and we can thank the Governor of California past and present for that, had they just maintained the dam we wouldn't even be talking about this. Yesterday with no inflow they were dropping the lake up to 4.5 inches per hour. As the lake drops and surface area reduces that number should actually increase. However, there is no way they could drop it 50 feet in 3 days with 100,000cfs outflow. DWR is just lying to people again or they really are complete idiots that can't do basic math. The standard elevation of the lake that they were trying to maintain before all of this happened was at 850 feet. Last Tuesday the lake was around 856 when they turned the spillway off and they had 130,000 cfs inflow. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:23:10 AM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This is correct. I'm at ground zero! Quarter beers every Tuesday FTW! Quarter beers in the vending machine everyday. Quarter barrel of Stroh's $20. Member Stroh's farts? But I digress back to geology…….. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:28:47 AM EST
[#30]
NBC just did a brief segment in the dam on the Today Show. Mostly focusing on the "200 thousand" evacuees and an interview of a guy that is staying behind. The talking head just reported that this was all due to a "sinkhole that appeared under the spillway".
BTW I do not watch that program but the GF does and I heard it as I was going for coffee. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:34:25 AM EST
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Not sure if you know what the service spillway elevation is but once the reservoir is below that level the release will have to come through the low level intake which is likely much less. The rate at which the reservoir drops once it gets below the service spillway will be much less. NONE. Option 1 USED to be "run hydro power". Stopped by: threat to power lines, back flow (and rise of river level) caused by debris and erosion of the main spillway failure (caused by lack of maintenance.) Option 2 USED to be "use bypass tunnel" (the one used during dam build.) Sopped by: they plugged it up. After an accident in 2009 (the one where the dudes almost got sucked in) the valve was damaged and they didn't fix it. (Notice a pattern yet?) They can dredge out the river and reduce flow of the main spillway (oops! can't do that!) and restart hydro assuming there isn't damage due to flooding in there. (A very big if, and a lot of work.) Or, they could use some sort of remote machines and fuck around with very high pressure tunnels and open a valve that they a) might not get closed again b) might fuck up the hydro chamber and destroy the turbines. Bottom line is, the "flex capacity" of that lake is now between 901 at top (or whatever the highest not to be up against the e-spillway is) down to 851 where the bottom of the main spillway is. The rest, they CANNOT DRAIN. And, it's still winter, and it's still raining or snowing or melting up there. And everybody else is full. And they've got huge construction problems just doing the stuff they need to keep the emergency spillway intact. They are fucked. There are going to be huge floods. No matter what. If they are lucky, they won't come at high speed in the form of a wall of water. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:41:18 AM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yes, having a geologist is sedimentary, my dear Watson. Awe man, not this schist in the dam discussion again.... |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:49:38 AM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
There IS no low level intake. NONE. Option 1 USED to be "run hydro power". Stopped by: threat to power lines, back flow (and rise of river level) caused by debris and erosion of the main spillway failure (caused by lack of maintenance.) Option 2 USED to be "use bypass tunnel" (the one used during dam build.) Sopped by: they plugged it up. After an accident in 2009 (the one where the dudes almost got sucked in) the valve was damaged and they didn't fix it. (Notice a pattern yet?) They can dredge out the river and reduce flow of the main spillway (oops! can't do that!) and restart hydro assuming there isn't damage due to flooding in there. (A very big if, and a lot of work.) Or, they could use some sort of remote machines and fuck around with very high pressure tunnels and open a valve that they a) might not get closed again b) might fuck up the hydro chamber and destroy the turbines. Bottom line is, the "flex capacity" of that lake is now between 901 at top (or whatever the highest not to be up against the e-spillway is) down to 851 where the bottom of the main spillway is. The rest, they CANNOT DRAIN. And, it's still winter, and it's still raining or snowing or melting up there. And everybody else is full. And they've got huge construction problems just doing the stuff they need to keep the emergency spillway intact. They are fucked. There are going to be huge floods. No matter what. If they are lucky, they won't come at high speed in the form of a wall of water. I guess CA can stop stealing water from Arizona now. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:52:23 AM EST
[#34]
Quote History Correct. More detailed maps list it as a type of volcanic rock.
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:53:21 AM EST
[#35]
This is important posting again. Thanks @Chokey Spillway designed to handle 650,000 more than any inflow numbers we have seen. He re are the problems 1. 2009 river diversion tunnel accident that led to a decommission of the tunnels. (this can bypass water through the dam but not generator) 2. Lack of or improper maintenance of the Spillway. This lead to the Front falling off. 3. River backed up causing shutdown of power plant. 4. Tried to use an untested Emergency Spillway The Dam will survive if the Spillway does. They haven't even opened her up to half way. My question is Why do you design downstream infrastructure than can't handle half what the Country's largest Dam can put out? You can pay me now when you build it or pay later when all your other crap and the town is destroyed. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:56:23 AM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryAm I the only person this isn't working for? Cliffs notes? |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:56:24 AM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Neal Boortz used to say politicians get their names permanently posted on new projects, not on repairing and maintaining existing infrastructure. It's the same with most funding. No big dollar donor wants to hear they just gave a bunch of money to update the plumbing of and existing building - no matter how bad it needed it.... |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 8:56:39 AM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with. I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. I believe you hit the nail on the head with your description of the parent rock. The dam sits in the middle of gold mining country and a hodgepodge of rock types would not be uncommon. I put a call in to an old geotechnical engineer who may have an article from ASCE that was published in '67 with some detail drawings and design information of the original construction. He was out there in '67 during the construction of the dam. If we get really lucky, some of the original soil borings may be included. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:00:47 AM EST
[#39]
I'm over on the other side of the Sierras, the Eastern Sierra. Here is some weather news by a local meteorologist. TL:DR....MORE rain and snow is pretty certain, lots more. Jerry Brown will wish he spent that HS Train money on reservoirs and infrastructure maintenance.
They are busy trucking snow out of town to make room for more. Inmates from local jails up to Bridgeport are being used to dig out propane tanks all over town. http://mammothweather.com "Important points to be covering over the next 4 weeks: Mono County is officially out of the Drought. This is amazing to have happened in one water year! Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to reach historic proportions this week, in phases 8-1. (This will jack start El Nino again) Snowpack Here are a few statements about where we are in the current water year and how the Southern and Central Sierra are doing, I. Southern Sierra: The wettest winter for the Southern Sierra was the winter of 1969. It had an average of 56.3 inches of water for that wet season, averaged over 6 reporting sites. It is currently 227% of normal on February 12th. Currently, the Southern Sierra stands on par, water wise, with the winter of 1969. The wettest winter for the Central Sierra was the winter of 1983. That winter averaged 77.4 inches over 5 recording sites. As of February 12th, it is 230% of normal to date, currently well ahead of the winter of 1983. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:06:58 AM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Gniess... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Please stick around, we need an actual geologist in this thread. It looks like the schist is about to hit the fan. Gniess... |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:10:11 AM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I believe you hit the nail on the head with your description of the parent rock. The dam sits in the middle of gold mining country and a hodgepodge of rock types would not be uncommon. I put a call in to an old geotechnical engineer who may have an article from ASCE that was published in '67 with some detail drawings and design information of the original construction. He was out there in '67 during the construction of the dam. If we get really lucky, some of the original soil borings may be included. AWESOME! Fingers crossed you can deliver. I've been wondering all along about borings. I have a minor in Geology. Majored in Geography. Dad is a Geologist. We get the earth sciences around here. Favorite class in college was fluvial geomorphology. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:11:35 AM EST
[#42]
Following this thread is much the same way the reservoir is filling up. Can't read fast enough to keep up.
OP needs to design an emergency spillway for thread. OP, if you start a new thread that is strictly for posting of donations it would be an awesome event to watch ARFcommers come to the rescue. I'm in for $100.00 regardless. Potential for another epic thread is high. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:18:43 AM EST
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This is correct. I'm at ground zero! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Find the rest of that quote. I 'member because I went to college in Wisconsin that year, or the next. The rest of the quote went something like….. "you'll notice that we did not include any schools from Wisconsin. That's because Wisconsin schools are professional partiers, and the rest of the nation is nothing but amateurs." They weren't lying. This is correct. I'm at ground zero! |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:21:39 AM EST
[#44]
Sounds to me like 617 Squadron is warming up the Lancs.
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:24:23 AM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Thank you. We really need some real geologists here. That new hole they are looking at, below the e-spill, looks to me to be glacial. Lots of basalt boulders mixed in with red dirt. You can see the left over VW sized boulders sitting on whats left, with hard hats walking around taking notes. The striata (sp?) there is vertical there and looks like a boulders and dirt mix shoved up against the side of the mountain. What do you think? I make no claims of knowledge here. I just searched back 20 pages and can't find the image I'm looking for. All I know about rocks is from that song from the '60s, though. That is why I was thinking shear zone, but you can get similar chaotic textures to glacial deposits from shear zones and metamorphics. I was thinking shear zone because it's common in fold & thrust belts (mountain building) and that's what I've been around - not a ton of oil & gas exploration in metamorphics and volcanics. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:25:24 AM EST
[#46]
I can't keep up with what's going on.
Yesterday when I checked in on this thread it appeared everything was looking good for those folks out there. Now I'm seeing Evacuation Funding???? What happened yesterday? |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:27:13 AM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4lkWdAVcAEIFRF.jpg This is important posting again. Thanks @Chokey Spillway designed to handle 650,000 more than any inflow numbers we have seen. He re are the problems 1. 2009 river diversion tunnel accident that led to a decommission of the tunnels. (this can bypass water through the dam but not generator) 2. Lack of or improper maintenance of the Spillway. This lead to the Front falling off. 3. River backed up causing shutdown of power plant. 4. Tried to use an untested Emergency Spillway The Dam will survive if the Spillway does. They haven't even opened her up to half way. My question is Why do you design downstream infrastructure than can't handle half what the Country's largest Dam can put out? You can pay me now when you build it or pay later when all your other crap and the town is destroyed. A dam doesn't produce water, it simply retains it. Because of that, the only water it lets go is overflow created from the various sources which would have flowed regardless if there was a retaining wall or not. So while the dam has the ability to dump a shit ton of water, that water is simply going to be overflow water. Give it a huge capacity to prevent the failure of the dam itself which would destroy any infrastructure down stream regardless of how big it is. You need to give it a monster capacity just in case you have a monster storm system. But like you said, none of this shit makes sense, they had tons of opportunity and simply their solution to any past problems was simply just to decommission or patch it, so there is no future recourse if it's ever needed. The diversion tunnels would have made the difference in this, but of course, rather than fix it, they'd rather just kill it. I'm sure that when this is all over, all they are going to do is repair the ramp, maybe add some concrete to the e spillway probably just a skirt.... and clear up to get the turbines working.... call it a day. I doubt they are going to add additional spillway designs, piping, reopening the bypass functions, boring new bypass, etc.... it's typical bureaucratic and political logic. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:32:58 AM EST
[#48]
We are now watching a slow motion train wreck. Fortunately a lot of passengers got off. The next impact is Friday and that's going to be a matter of how hard, not if.
Diversion tunnel damaged in 2009 and no repair. Powerplant can't operate, limited help. Main spillway damaged and limited in use. Espill discovered to have geological issues. The next 100 days weather (if normal) beyond the capacity of structure. Likely most potential failure: the Espill collapsing which is hopefully minor in comparison to other failure modes. If "they" decide to somehow open the diversion tunnel? Worst case it that it undermines the dam if it gets out of hand. Better to suffer the Espill damage as it could be less. Next worst case is the main flume eroding back to the dam and shutting down, leaving the Espill to handle it anyway. The long term results appear to include a Katrina like event for Oroville with a lot of people never returning. It's going to be one storm after another and one failure after another, each coupled together like rail cars hammering the valley and cascading down stream. It would be nice if none of it happened. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:35:15 AM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
As a former Ohio University Bobcat I can say a thing or two about party schools. It actually came up at a job interview once. They basically made a statement about OU being known for excessive partying and wanted to know how I felt that would do anything to further my case with them. My reply was a quick statement on the value of learning time management on a very steep learning curve. Those who couldn't manage their studies and their time demands quickly faded out as they did the "walk of shame" out of the dorms. I was proud of never blowing a deadline, keeping good grades, and learning how to prioritize. You don't graduate from a place like that unless you have some kind of work ethic. The interviewer was kind of shocked by that response. You are very correct. We work hard, we party hard! We get shit done! The only weird thing I don't quite understand about Madison is that I don't know many liberals that know how to party, yet we are famous for our party reputation. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 9:35:42 AM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryÌnteresting. The work is being done at the base of the highest portion of the weir and along the road between it and the primary spillway. Nothing on the hole where the main weir ends and the smaller weir along the parking lot begins. Doesnt show the far end of the lot at all. |
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