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My concern is that the majority of GD has not predicted a Presidential election correctly since 2004

I hope the cycle is broken this year but am concerned

It’s unbelievable. But not so unbelievable. I’m seeing comments “well, she’s not the old man everyone was complaining about.”  We had 2 old men so nobody was excited. Now, some are. Politics aside.  Still hoping Trump can pull it off.

Hugely.

Trump only wins if he gets enough votes to defeat the so-called cheating margin.
The Trump team needs to start running ads showing what's going on in Oakland so people can see what Kamala's wake looks like.

Never underestimate your opponent.

Strangely, he’s silent. He needs to slow her momentum.

Trump needs to talk about his vision of America. He needs to STFU about her.

100%

A lot of Dems even think she is nuts

Biden was Trump's best shot at getting elected, and nominating Trump on the belief that he could at least beat Biden was never a great plan. Sometimes a more moderate candidate that can win is better than one you really like that can't.

That being said once the race is on there are only two horses and you have to pick one.

I'm not sure he's capable, thats one of his biggest downfalls.

Yes.. scary

If you compare 2016 to 2020 and now there's been a shift. In 2016 he was a voice of optimism, getting America back to its roots, looking after everybody, solving problems

Now he spends way too much time talking about how everyone's out to get him, the revenge he wants, how evil the other guy is

I wish he would get back to the vision too

PA, OH, IA, MI, WI, NC, NV, AZ, GA….
Yea that’s optimistic.. but not impossible

To paraphrase Ben Shapiro, the election needs to be framed as a referendum on the Biden administration.  If it’s a referendum on Trump, he goes down. If he can keep the spotlight on the Biden admin (of which Kamala is obviously an inexorcisable component), and OFF of himself, he will win. The worst thing he could do is what he did in 2020, which is remain highly visible 24/7 giving constant fodder to the legacy media. His not being on X will, ironically, be a big help. He should remain active, though not dominatingly so, while pushing a generally unifying message and continually pointing out how badly the Biden admin has screwed everyone over.

One, swing voters decide our elections not people active in politics or decided in their political views.  Two, Democratic voter apathy was one of the legitimate paths for Trump with Joe Biden. He wouldn’t have needed to carry as many swing voters if democrats were staying home (which is why Biden was polling so terribly, why he was forced out of the race to begin with). Biden also turned of swing voters too. The mere fact Kamala is a “black women” flips that script and reenergizes the base who are going to vote for here no matter her history. Trump is back to needing every last swing voter he can get.

Kamala is fucking retarded and speaks marble mouthed nonsense. That’s why the media ignored her and being number 2 didn’t bother creating a narrative. Now they’ll champion her and paint her in the best light (like they do every democrat). I’m hoping for a huge prime time collapse once she gets on the stretch of the campaign trail. I honestly think she might crush Trump in a debate. The only time Ive ever seen her articulate and pointed was in senate hearings with a similar prosecutor style as Trey Gowdy. Obviously her positions were stupid but she wasn’t the “more we know we know more of more we know” she’s been in interviews. It took someone quick thinking and quick talking like Tulsi to destroy her in a debate. Trump’s braggadocious style doesn’t lend itself to that. He faced literal tomato cans in his debates. Again another area I hope she falls apart.

Wanna bet that wasn't Republicans?

She’s top of the news cycle, just got a quarter billion dollars in donations, and is on the offensive being pushed by the media and institutional democrats. There may not be a good play besides silence for a short term.

"Trump's got this in the bag" - "Trump is going to win big in November"

The complacency is mind boggling. Within 48 hours, damn near every Democrat got into line for Kalama, a person who only got 844 votes 7 years ago, and $80,000,000 yesterday and $250,000,000 TODAY.

We were hoping for chaos and infighting in Chicago this year, but it sounds like it will be a Kamala cheer camp and all the Joe Biden tactics will not work on her. It's a totally new script.

Next, she'll start pulling the suburban white woman vote. Those dumb cunts will follow her like a pied piper of bad ideas.

Ballot harvesting is still legal in many states. Forget the "ballot printing" bullshit line - no need to print millions of fake ballots when the government brings you blank ones TO YOUR DOOR.  

Don't get complacent.

Flip her “I’m a prosecutor facing a felon” by hammering her record of jailing black men.

The American people:
We want a leader whose vision we agree with.

The globalists:
We want a puppet that we will control.

No she is not. But the fucking epic cheating from the Democrats is.

Common sense like that is not well regarded here, you panty-shitting piss boi. Or is it panty pissing shit boi?

Fearing Kamala is irrational and weak. She demonstrates a profound lack of intelligence, and her cognitive abilities have been impaired by repeated asphyxiation due to cock gobbling. If the political establishment wanted her to be President, she would be President now.

The most influential Democrat remains unchanged since the Rotting Bag of Oatmeal allegedly dropped out of the race. Marc Elias continues to be active in electoral lawfare.

I hate to be a Debbie Downer but every one of those morons that voted for Obama will vote for her.  In addition there are now ten million additional Illegals and a good portion will find their way to the ballot box.

Then you have the indisputable fact that in 2020 the Democrats learned how to steal an election with the scam of fraudulent ballots in Democrat controlled swing districts.  They can win any state they want by coming up with enough bogus ballots to carry the state in the Democrat controlled big city shitholes that most states have.  The Republicans won't do jackshit to stop it.  Neither will the cowardly courts.

Get really for President Crackles.

She may have some issues from some on the Democrats side.

https://blacklivesmatter.com/black-lives-matter-statement-on-kamala-harris-securing-enough-delegates-to-become-democratic-nominee/

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
JULY 23, 2024

Black Lives Matter calls on the DNC to host a virtual snap primary.

Washington D.C. – Black Lives Matter demands that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) immediately host an informal, virtual snap primary across the country prior to the DNC convention in August. We call for the Rules Committee to create a process that allows for public participation in the nomination process, not just a nomination by party delegates. The current political landscape is unprecedented, with President Biden stepping aside in a manner never seen before. This moment calls for decisive action to protect the integrity of our democracy and the voices of Black voters.

While Joe Biden wasn’t our preferred candidate, we cannot ignore the troubling actions of the Democratic Party:

The DNC refused to host debates during the primary, even though a vast majority of Democratic voters wanted them. This would have likely allowed America to see the decline of Joe Biden in 2023.
The DNC changed the primary schedule and created rules that made it almost impossible for non-Biden candidates to appear on the ballot, effectively clearing the field of any challengers to the incumbent president.
Following the primary where millions of Black voters weighed in, after one poor debate performance, the DNC Party elites and billionaire donors bullied Joe Biden out of the race.
Now, Democratic Party elites and billionaire donors are attempting to manipulate Black voters by anointing Kamala Harris and an unknown vice president as the new Democratic ticket without a primary vote by the public. This blatant disregard for democratic principles is unacceptable. While the potential outcome of a Harris presidency may be historic, the process to achieve it must align with true democratic values. We have no idea where Kamala Harris stands on the issues, now that she has assumed Joe Biden’s place, and we have no idea of the record of her potential vice president because we don’t even know who it is yet.

At Black Lives Matter, our focus is on building strong communities, addressing root issues, and creating spaces of justice and joy. This election process has been a disservice to our communities and to democracy. Historically, Black people have been loyal Democratic voters, but time and again, the party has taken our votes for granted and prioritized political theatrics over our real needs.

So we will do the hard thing: we will celebrate, and honor the joy many in our community are feeling about Kamala’s historic candidacy and path to the nomination—while calling out the undemocratic process and engaging in a vigorous discussion on the issues our community cares about.

We do not live in a dictatorship. Delegates are not oligarchs. Any attempt to evade or override the will of voters in our primary system—no matter how historic the candidate—must be condemned. We demand an informal, virtual snap primary now that the incumbent president is no longer in the running.

For the past few years, the Democratic Party has proclaimed that “democracy is on the ballot” in an effort to persuade Black voters to participate in the upcoming general election. They have presented this as the most serious election for democracy in our lifetimes. However, democracy isn’t just an ideal to be protected against Republicans; it must also be safeguarded from erosions within the Democratic Party. Calls for “unity” cannot come at the expense of democracy. The Democratic party, which has been the loudest in defending democracy, is now poised to commit some of the most undemocratic maneuvering to avoid listening to the will of the voters.

D’Zhane Parker, a Black Lives Matter leader, said: “Black Lives Matter is independent of any political party. We focus on fighting racial and economic injustices that impact Black communities. While we may back policies that align with our goals, our commitment is to the liberation of Black people. This independence allows us to hold all political entities accountable and stay true to our mission without party influence.”

We must stand firm against any attempt to silence Black voters and other marginalized communities. This is not just about Biden or Harris; it is about demanding a political system that genuinely represents us and upholds democracy.

Let us be clear: This is about the Democratic Party following a process that protects the legitimacy of any future Democratic president following this unprecedented moment. Installing Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and an unknown vice president without any public voting process would make the modern Democratic Party a party of hypocrites. It would undermine their credibility on issues related to democracy. Imagine our first Black woman president not having won some sort of public nomination process. The pundits would immediately label it as affirmative action or a DEI move, and any progress made by a President Harris would be on shaky foundations. If Kamala Harris is to be the nominee, it must be through a process that upholds democratic principles and public participation.

Reflecting on history, we remember Shirley Chisholm, the first Black woman to run for the Democratic nomination for president in 1972. She faced significant opposition from the party establishment, underscoring the need to stand firm against undemocratic practices today. Since 1972, presidential candidates have needed to undergo a vote by the public to receive the nomination, which replaced the era when party bosses controlled the nomination process. Binding primaries were established to ensure that the nominee reflected the will of the people rather than party elites.

Shalomyah Bowers, a Black Lives Matter leader, said: “This is not an attack on Kamala Harris or Black women, and right now we aren’t questioning Kamala’s qualifications or capabilities. This is about the nominating process. Those of us who care about the principles of democracy cannot be serious about installing Kamala Harris and an unknown vice president as the Democratic nominee without any semblance of a people-powered process. Not delegates and party elites, but actually asking communities across the country if they believe this should be the democratic ticket. Anything less is unserious in the quest for democracy. Democracies are stronger when political parties operate with primary systems that allow for genuine participation.”

We demand a transparent and fair virtual snap primary to allow for a democratic selection of the nominee. The DNC must address systemic issues, increase transparency, and promote genuine grassroots engagement. Our democracy is strongest when it is inclusive, transparent, and fair.

Trump is not winning va or wi vs Harris.

MI? maybe
PA? Maybe
NV probably
AZ Maybe / probably
GA Probably unless gap tooth harvests ballots then? uh maybe?

This is much harder than Biden even though she's a dislikabile bitch.

'm more worried about downballot enthusiasm.

Yes shes tied to biden, the economy and the border sucks. But shes everything the modern left loves, if she can shake the beating people to death over pot thing.


I dunno. This isnt a dunk anymore but she has to do dumb shit like hillary did, and she won't.

Once the hype dies down, her handlers will sugar coat her like they did to Joe. Nothing there !

You just did by posting. @osprey21

Buy they/them want it to be true really bad. Obviously, the paid shills here are going to be out in force to discourage everybody and tell us the Trump has no choice we might as well just sit at home and lose in peace.

If any of these bad wetters in this thread are really really concerned about Kamala taking on Trump they should get out there and volunteer to knock on doors. I've done it a few times, in my old blue it was pretty brutal.

I would like to think that all the bedwetters here are really just paid shills, it makes me sad if any Trump supporter is actually this defeated this early in the process.

Unsubscribing for my sanity.

No, she's not.

I agree. But really, though, I'm just curious to see how stupid Americans will be in Nov 8.

But none of those things matter for our supposed side if we have no control over them.

Swing voters don't surf arfcom for political advice. Handwringing over all this accomplishes nothing.

Like I said before if Trump can't pull this through with Kamala.  He wasn't going to pull through against anyone.  And to the people who want to lay that at the feet of Trump and his supporters.  Please just understand you haven't really accomplished anything either.  

If the right can't put a guy in there then a guy can't be put there and that's the story. Either way I'm going to keep participating.  If you feel so strongly I suggest you do the same.

Yup. I'd say it's about 50/50 right now.

Can't see Trump's odds getting better then that but I could see his chance lessening.

The Harpy-Hag is too egotistical to isolate in a basement somewhere, so she's going to be talking stupidly and cackling in public------A LOT.

It will be impossible to hide that amount of fuck all DUM.

The American People will be ready to spit her out in a month.  There's a change.....

Ohio and Iowa are pretty red these days. They'll go trump. They aren't really swing states anymore.

NC and GA will probably go red.

The rest of those? That is the game.

What is the reason to consider Wisconsin leaning more left and toward Harris then Michigan and Pennsylvania?
@ cryo_tech

I’d give it at least another two weeks to settle from the high that comes with dramatic change. Biden dropping out was huge news, and there was sure to be flux in the polling. Once the new shine wears off we will have a better picture.

One wonders if the attitude that suburban white women are “dumb cunts” is part of what drives them to vote Democrat.

NPR just had a young female talking about how Kamala's quirky sayings and flubs are endearing and make her relatable to younger voters.

Look..an idiot just like me!

Ok.  Hope so! Thanks.

The Dim talking heads in the lamestream press will always follow the command of the communists that control the Dims. Luckily for us, there are other sources now that we can use to refute their BS propaganda.

We still can't get complacent.

Actually, no, the country as a whole is far more *right* than what the lamestream presstitutes desperately want everyone to believe. That's one of the things that Elon's freeing of Twatter/X has done. Once right-thinking voices are no longer silenced, people start recognizing the left has been gaslighting them.

I won't tell you what my wife said because it's not the kind of thing repeatable in polite company. Suffice to say, FKH counting on the "wimmenz stronk" vote is going to be sadly disappointed.

We still cannot afford to get complacent, however. We need to be particularly active this election cycle.

Except the media isn't in lock-step any more (otherwise Xiden wouldn't be out). And, there are alternate sources of information now that didn't exist (or people didn't know about) before. The communists hate that their lock on information has been broken. It's one of the reasons why the left despises Musk now.

This is not Trump vs Kamala.

This is Trump vs Not Trump

It’s that simple. They could literally run any democrat. All they have to do is make it close enough to steal and they will.

Beyond that, the swamp will stop at nothing to keep him out.

The irony of the leftist mindset is that they will literally elect Hitler if it means voting against Trump. It's so strange given how much of a disaster Kamala's policies were for the Black community in Cali and how disastrous her "Boarder Czar" no-show job is for legal immigrants and Americans at large.

Sure.