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Posted: 7/7/2024 7:34:50 AM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Thank god, after 24 hours of the track not moving, in the 4am update it moved half way from my house to Houston, a pretty big leap east. If it moved that much in 3 hours it will probably keep moving. Sucks for the Houston people, though. Where are you seeing that? National hurricane center still has the same track and impact as before. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 7:39:44 AM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: With the 1:00am update the track hasn't shifted at all. I suspect they're just not bothering. But read the words. "Overnight model guidance has shifted to the right (east) and so has the NHC track with landfall around Matagorda and some additional slight rightward track adjustments may be needed today." "Beryl is starting to move into more favorable conditions for development and if/when an inner core forms…more rapid intensification will be possible. There remains the potential for fairly significant intensification of Beryl in the last 12 hours prior to landfall and the SHIPS intensity forecast is 2-3 times above climatology for the possibility of rapid intensification. The NHC forecast has Beryl making landfall at 85mph…but this could be stronger and preparations should be made for a possible landfall in the range of 85-100mph. " "Widespread power outages are now likely over a large part of the area on Monday…be prepared for extended outages. " They're saying it's going to be stronger and closer to Houston than currently indicated. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 7:42:33 AM EST
[#3]
Conroe / North Houston here checking in.
went to HEB at 6am when they opened today and they had plenty of everything. filled up a couple gas cans just for the sake of it and am now "prepped". I expect a few inches of rain and maybe 50 mile per hour winds but you never really know what will pop up in the bands. having a hurricane / TS swing right by you is always a little unnerving. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 7:49:31 AM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m in Katy and I just hope the power stays on. We are supposed to go on vacation in MS on Tuesday, leaving the dog and cats here for a neighbor to check on. If the power is out I don’t plan on leaving until it is. I’ll have some disappointed kids if we can’t go. My brother’s in Katy, too. He’s supposed to head here with his family on Thursday. He’s in the same boat with his dogs. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 8:01:01 AM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Where are you seeing that? National hurricane center still has the same track and impact as before. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Thank god, after 24 hours of the track not moving, in the 4am update it moved half way from my house to Houston, a pretty big leap east. If it moved that much in 3 hours it will probably keep moving. Sucks for the Houston people, though. Where are you seeing that? National hurricane center still has the same track and impact as before. Weather underground has a more detailed track that you can zoom in (up to your house if you want) and I just watched the storm report on KHOU. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2024/tropical-storm-beryl KHOU Tropical Storm Beryl tracker: See location, forecast track and models |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 8:21:12 AM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My brother’s in Katy, too. He’s supposed to head here with his family on Thursday. He’s in the same boat with his dogs. Now we are thinking if the power is out, maybe the owner of the house we rented would make an exception to “No Pets” and let us bring them. Maybe put down a deposit. Worth a shot! It will be annoying hearing the cats whine for 6-1/2 hours. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 8:27:48 AM EST
[#7]
not strengthening yet
7:00 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 Location: 25.5°N 94.9°W Moving: NW at 12 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 60 mph SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River * The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Galveston Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River * The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to High Island * The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to High Island, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore * High Island to Sabine Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Texas coast east of High Island to Sabine Pass |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 8:32:55 AM EST
[#8]
and there it is
now that they've moved the cone all the way up the TX coast from brownsville, if you're in the cone now, it gon rain |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 8:47:02 AM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: and there it is now that they've moved the cone all the way up the TX coast from brownsville, if you're in the cone now, it gon rain This |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 8:59:08 AM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: and there it is now that they've moved the cone all the way up the TX coast from brownsville, if you're in the cone now, it gon rain 
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Posted: 7/7/2024 9:26:51 AM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: and there it is now that they've moved the cone all the way up the TX coast from brownsville, if you're in the cone now, it gon rain Looks like it. We dont really need the rain but ill take it over another big hurricane. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 9:34:56 AM EST
[#12]
surf's up
 South Padre Surf Cam 4K Isla Blanca Beach Park - Surf Lessons South Padre Surf Company 956-772-7272 |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 9:36:44 AM EST
[#13]
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Posted: 7/7/2024 10:00:02 AM EST
[#14]
10:00 AM CDT Sun Jul 7
Location: 25.9°N 95.1°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 65 mph |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 10:21:02 AM EST
[#15]
 Morning Update on Tropical Storm Beryl from NHC in Miami, FL (July 7, 2024) |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 10:25:25 AM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryDang. That’ll back some area rivers up! |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 11:32:46 AM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Is this thing hitting brazoria county? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: With the 1:00am update the track hasn't shifted at all. Is this thing hitting brazoria county? It looks like Brazoria County is going to take s pretty significant whack |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 11:36:36 AM EST
[#18]
 [Sunday] Beryl Nearing Landfall in Texas; Intensification into a Hurricane Expected |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 11:47:29 AM EST
[#19]
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:06:03 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It looks like Brazoria County is going to take s pretty significant whack Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: With the 1:00am update the track hasn't shifted at all. Is this thing hitting brazoria county? It looks like Brazoria County is going to take s pretty significant whack Well, we have for sure been overdue for a while. Seems like we always got lucky somewhat. Trying to get my parents set up now, just a few miles from matagorda a few miles from the gulf also. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:16:03 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hurricane Harvey gave us 60 inches and TS Imelda gave us 44 inches literally and figuratively https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/183309/flood1-3259929.jpg Interstate 10 during Harvey https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/183309/hurricane_harvey4-3259931.jpg As ugly as those images are, the worst are see people’s entire life and memories stacked up at the curb to be hauled away. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:21:30 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I suspect they're just not bothering. But read the words. "Overnight model guidance has shifted to the right (east) and so has the NHC track with landfall around Matagorda and some additional slight rightward track adjustments may be needed today." "Beryl is starting to move into more favorable conditions for development and if/when an inner core forms…more rapid intensification will be possible. There remains the potential for fairly significant intensification of Beryl in the last 12 hours prior to landfall and the SHIPS intensity forecast is 2-3 times above climatology for the possibility of rapid intensification. The NHC forecast has Beryl making landfall at 85mph…but this could be stronger and preparations should be made for a possible landfall in the range of 85-100mph. " "Widespread power outages are now likely over a large part of the area on Monday…be prepared for extended outages. " They're saying it's going to be stronger and closer to Houston than currently indicated. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: With the 1:00am update the track hasn't shifted at all. I suspect they're just not bothering. But read the words. "Overnight model guidance has shifted to the right (east) and so has the NHC track with landfall around Matagorda and some additional slight rightward track adjustments may be needed today." "Beryl is starting to move into more favorable conditions for development and if/when an inner core forms…more rapid intensification will be possible. There remains the potential for fairly significant intensification of Beryl in the last 12 hours prior to landfall and the SHIPS intensity forecast is 2-3 times above climatology for the possibility of rapid intensification. The NHC forecast has Beryl making landfall at 85mph…but this could be stronger and preparations should be made for a possible landfall in the range of 85-100mph. " "Widespread power outages are now likely over a large part of the area on Monday…be prepared for extended outages. " They're saying it's going to be stronger and closer to Houston than currently indicated. A couple of things. I've been watching Beryl awhile. Noted that the original Euro models had it hitting Mexico eventually, while the GFS had it hitting a bit north, near Padre, then immediately moving North to Corpus. Which is weird, and the Euro model has usually been superior, so I ignored it. All this is to say, the Euro model has it hitting Matagorda now, at like 989mb. High TS, Cat1. The HWRF model, OTOH, has it hitting slightly East of Matagorda, but at 960mb. That's good Cat 2, but the model is listing max 97 knots for wind. Probably sustained 115 mph. (Link 'should' take you to that model run.) Bit of a discrepancy. Surge is predicted max ~6-8'. It's just not that big of a storm. Still annoying for Houston/Galveston, but bullet dodged for Padre and maybe Corpus. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:24:31 PM EST
[#23]
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:36:15 PM EST
[#24]
Good we are not seeing huge strengthening for the storm.
65mph winds is a normal day in Corpus. 
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:36:25 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: A couple of things. I've been watching Beryl awhile. Noted that the original Euro models had it hitting Mexico eventually, while the GFS had it hitting a bit north, near Padre, then immediately moving North to Corpus. Which is weird, and the Euro model has usually been superior, so I ignored it. All this is to say, the Euro model has it hitting Matagorda now, at like 989mb. High TS, Cat1. The HWRF model, OTOH, has it hitting slightly East of Matagorda, but at 960mb. That's good Cat 2, but the model is listing max 97 knots for wind. Probably sustained 115 mph. (Link 'should' take you to that model run.) Bit of a discrepancy. Surge is predicted max ~6-8'. It's just not that big of a storm. Still annoying for Houston/Galveston, but bullet dodged for Padre and maybe Corpus. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: With the 1:00am update the track hasn't shifted at all. I suspect they're just not bothering. But read the words. "Overnight model guidance has shifted to the right (east) and so has the NHC track with landfall around Matagorda and some additional slight rightward track adjustments may be needed today." "Beryl is starting to move into more favorable conditions for development and if/when an inner core forms…more rapid intensification will be possible. There remains the potential for fairly significant intensification of Beryl in the last 12 hours prior to landfall and the SHIPS intensity forecast is 2-3 times above climatology for the possibility of rapid intensification. The NHC forecast has Beryl making landfall at 85mph…but this could be stronger and preparations should be made for a possible landfall in the range of 85-100mph. " "Widespread power outages are now likely over a large part of the area on Monday…be prepared for extended outages. " They're saying it's going to be stronger and closer to Houston than currently indicated. A couple of things. I've been watching Beryl awhile. Noted that the original Euro models had it hitting Mexico eventually, while the GFS had it hitting a bit north, near Padre, then immediately moving North to Corpus. Which is weird, and the Euro model has usually been superior, so I ignored it. All this is to say, the Euro model has it hitting Matagorda now, at like 989mb. High TS, Cat1. The HWRF model, OTOH, has it hitting slightly East of Matagorda, but at 960mb. That's good Cat 2, but the model is listing max 97 knots for wind. Probably sustained 115 mph. (Link 'should' take you to that model run.) Bit of a discrepancy. Surge is predicted max ~6-8'. It's just not that big of a storm. Still annoying for Houston/Galveston, but bullet dodged for Padre and maybe Corpus. I've said sargent as a 2 since last week, forecasters have missed the mark on this one big time and lots of people have slept on it |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:37:05 PM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Good we are not seeing huge strengthening for the storm. 65mph winds is a normal day in Corpus. If the eye wall closes up in the next couple hours like is expected it will spin up quick |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:37:44 PM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As ugly as those images are, the worst are see people’s entire life and memories stacked up at the curb to be hauled away. There were some lighthearted moments though. One of the neighbors paid these kids per duck to find all his decoys. The FB posts asking who these pillow/shoes/random decor items belonged to were kind of amusing as well.   We rebuilt after Ike and Harvey. If we flood again we'll be walking away. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:44:55 PM EST
[#28]
First band, first thunder in SETX, right now
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:52:13 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If the eye wall closes up in the next couple hours like is expected it will spin up quick Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Good we are not seeing huge strengthening for the storm. 65mph winds is a normal day in Corpus. If the eye wall closes up in the next couple hours like is expected it will spin up quick No, for sure it will get stronger. Still looks like worst case will be barely Cat 2. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 12:59:44 PM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: First band, first thunder in SETX, right now https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/183309/image_2024-07-07_124453265-3260513.png Hold onto your butts |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 1:01:49 PM EST
[#31]
1:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 7
Location: 26.3°N 95.3°W Moving: NNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 65 mph still tracking towards Matagorda |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 1:02:24 PM EST
[#32]
Yes we just had the first rain band come thru here. Was intense rain, but short lived, and now its stopped.
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Posted: 7/7/2024 1:03:53 PM EST
[#33]
Good luck to everyone in the path.
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Posted: 7/7/2024 1:09:10 PM EST
[#34]
For a grin or maybe a giggle , translate Matagorda from Spanish to English .
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Posted: 7/7/2024 1:09:29 PM EST
[#35]
Just had 27mph winds with gust of 43mph in Sealy.
Currently raining, 1/4" in last 15 minutes. Be safe out there. ETa: my weather station. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXSEALY66 |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 1:12:51 PM EST
[#36]
Yep intense rain and bit of thunder rolled through. Inside the loop Houston metro. Streets already drained and yard looks like nothing happened.
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Posted: 7/7/2024 1:16:28 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Good luck to everyone in the path. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 1:21:00 PM EST
[#38]
Thunderstorm just rolled into magnolia, isn't too bad and is pretty mild compared to the storms from earlier in the year.
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Posted: 7/7/2024 1:36:09 PM EST
[#39]
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Posted: 7/7/2024 1:39:18 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've said sargent as a 2 since last week, forecasters have missed the mark on this one big time and lots of people have slept on it Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: With the 1:00am update the track hasn't shifted at all. I suspect they're just not bothering. But read the words. "Overnight model guidance has shifted to the right (east) and so has the NHC track with landfall around Matagorda and some additional slight rightward track adjustments may be needed today." "Beryl is starting to move into more favorable conditions for development and if/when an inner core forms…more rapid intensification will be possible. There remains the potential for fairly significant intensification of Beryl in the last 12 hours prior to landfall and the SHIPS intensity forecast is 2-3 times above climatology for the possibility of rapid intensification. The NHC forecast has Beryl making landfall at 85mph…but this could be stronger and preparations should be made for a possible landfall in the range of 85-100mph. " "Widespread power outages are now likely over a large part of the area on Monday…be prepared for extended outages. " They're saying it's going to be stronger and closer to Houston than currently indicated. A couple of things. I've been watching Beryl awhile. Noted that the original Euro models had it hitting Mexico eventually, while the GFS had it hitting a bit north, near Padre, then immediately moving North to Corpus. Which is weird, and the Euro model has usually been superior, so I ignored it. All this is to say, the Euro model has it hitting Matagorda now, at like 989mb. High TS, Cat1. The HWRF model, OTOH, has it hitting slightly East of Matagorda, but at 960mb. That's good Cat 2, but the model is listing max 97 knots for wind. Probably sustained 115 mph. (Link 'should' take you to that model run.) Bit of a discrepancy. Surge is predicted max ~6-8'. It's just not that big of a storm. Still annoying for Houston/Galveston, but bullet dodged for Padre and maybe Corpus. I've said sargent as a 2 since last week, forecasters have missed the mark on this one big time and lots of people have slept on it I'm pretty sure I remember that. Although last week was just yesterday. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 2:31:06 PM EST
[#41]
I live directly on Galveston Bay.
I've trimmed a tree, thrown most of the trimmed branches in the garage, moved a bunch of patio chairs and tables inside and am almost done boarding the windows. I have a bit more to go. Amazon shows they are going to deliver a package I ordered today before 6:45pm. Damn. That's serious commitment. The post office creed never mentioned tropical weather. Not sure the delivery is wise. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 3:29:17 PM EST
[#42]
Not sure how I missed this thread. NE Houston checking in. Hope everyone fares well over the next 24 hours.
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Posted: 7/7/2024 3:52:08 PM EST
[#43]
lol from checking Apple weather radar (no idea how accurate), the eye sure seems to be headed over my house instead of Katy.
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Posted: 7/7/2024 3:52:41 PM EST
[#44]
pressure still dropping but the winds are not increasing
4:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 Location: 26.8°N 95.5°W Moving: NNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 988 mb Max sustained: 65 mph |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 3:54:51 PM EST
[#45]
This sucker sure does seem to be moving closer and closer to Houston area.
New update right over Sargent,Texas is what it looks like. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 4:11:48 PM EST
[#46]
Best of luck to everyone involved........ !!!!
Reading these threads brings back memories of living in coastal VA & all of the fears that a hurricane induced. I'm up in TN now; I think Merlin & myself don't ever have to worry about floods ever again..... Whew. |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 4:14:19 PM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: pressure still dropping but the winds are not increasing 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 Location: 26.8°N 95.5°W Moving: NNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 988 mb Max sustained: 65 mph Which is weird because I saw data with 982 five hours ago, I'm not sure anyone knows whats actually going on at this point |
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Posted: 7/7/2024 5:49:12 PM EST
[#48]
Any updates.. I’m in the Katy area .
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Posted: 7/7/2024 5:51:18 PM EST
[#49]
Getting windy in southern brazoria county. Gonna grill real quick.
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Posted: 7/7/2024 5:52:41 PM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Any updates.. I’m in the Katy area . Should be a update at the top of the hour, I believe.. |
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