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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:11:55 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote History
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:14:01 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I've positioned myself in the storm's path in order to provide early warning to the rest of you... we are now in Abaco in the Bahamas. Winds should arrive Friday night and the main storm be over us by Saturday morning. Power usually goes out here once a day for an hour or so under sunny conditions, so we'll see how this goes. Will stick around for a while afterwards should people want aftermath reports... 
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/2/IMG_1597-1069500.jpg
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:59:38 AM EDT
[#3]
well darn.... might be a hurricane heading toward me now, the longer it stays out at sea
still appears to be cat 1 or so, at this time. need to see what happens and what the conditions are like, after it passes the bahamas  Attached File Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 2:50:04 AM EDT
[#4]
Anyone feeling any effects of the storm yet?
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Posted: 8/28/2019 3:16:19 AM EDT
[#5]
I've been following the storm for the last few days. It's been dealing with dry air since its formation. It has looked like shit and still looks like shit. Tomorrow at this time it will probably look worse.
However once it gets north of PR it's in a much more favorable environment for intensification. At first almost all the models had it dissipating. Now they all have a hurricane hitting the east coast. A couple models even show it hitting with crazy low pressure, like 920mb. That's lower than Andrew. I'm not claiming to be an expert but I would watch this one closely. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 3:18:26 AM EDT
[#6]
puerto rico won't feel anything till sometime in the morning hours. it will still be a tropical storm when it goes by puerto rico.
after that, it's going to be pushed by steering winds more n nw than it was before, thus swinging over more waters and conditions that are favorable for development. looking at forcast steering winds and pressures, it looks like the actual path of the hurricane may continue to shift northward, and possibly shift to the point that it will brush ne flordia and georgia, and possibly do a carolina hit, or completely hook and stay off the coast. I think they may shift the path to hit ne florida around the palm coast sometime tomorrow, then georgia, if the continued changes occur as forcast but that is really too far off to tell right now, as we need to see what the conditions are when it passes to the east of the bahamas.  Attached File |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 3:20:45 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I've been following the storm for the last few days. It's been dealing with dry air since its formation. It has looked like shit and still looks like shit. Tomorrow at this time it will probably look worse. However once it gets north of PR it's in a much more favorable environment for intensification. At first almost all the models had it dissipating. Now they all have a hurricane hitting the east coast. A couple models even show it hitting with crazy low pressure, like 920mb. That's lower than Andrew. I'm not claiming to be an expert but I would watch this one closely. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 3:52:13 AM EDT
[#8]
here are some of the things I look at to decide what might happen, for those interested in weather
last year, noaa came up with a comprehensive site that gathered a bunch of stuff for hurricane prediction, and came up with Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System. it brings together forcast pressure maps, wind shear, mean steering winds, etc https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/index.php satellite imagery goes east. go down the menu on the left to choose the area of interest. click storms on the top menu, and it will do something similar with what tropical floaters imagery did https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php had to find where the top link was nedis noaa hurricane tracker. top level should be for a new date set each year for the storms that year https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/hurricane-imagery this link, should be the link for the 2019 storm season https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=2608b23cc14f4bf2928a507a5f31fc01 |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 3:53:53 AM EDT
[#9]
00z Euro takes a strong storm into the east coast of Florida
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Posted: 8/28/2019 4:00:16 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
00z Euro takes a strong storm into the east coast of Florida https://i.imgur.com/c57zXOu.png 
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Posted: 8/28/2019 6:50:14 AM EDT
[#11]
  
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Posted: 8/28/2019 6:57:04 AM EDT
[#12]
Wtf? I wake up and it shows hitting us on the east coast of Fl as a Cat 2 hurricane
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Posted: 8/28/2019 7:02:12 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wtf? I wake up and it shows hitting us on the east coast of Fl as a Cat 2 hurricane 
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Posted: 8/28/2019 7:04:10 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fun...fun...fun.. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 7:13:17 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wtf? I wake up and it shows hitting us on the east coast of Fl as a Cat 2 hurricane |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 7:54:32 AM EDT
[#16]
Not going to worry too much until I see Jim Cantore in town... but then it will be too late
Just another Florida summer |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 8:00:04 AM EDT
[#17]
slowing down and moving a tick north
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Posted: 8/28/2019 8:02:27 AM EDT
[#18]
With all that dry air, this on seems to be defying the odds and is holding together.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 8:33:53 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
00z Euro takes a strong storm into the east coast of Florida https://i.imgur.com/c57zXOu.png Luckily it's still four days away and can very well change a lot.
Edit to add - At least the outlier models are not showing the crazy low pressures anymore. Most are in a consensus of a cat 2 or 3 it seems. Still pretty destructive though depending where it hits and how much water it's pushing up. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 8:41:03 AM EDT
[#20]
Guess I need to go fill my gas cans up at lunchtime. Come 5pm places will be swamped.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:00:35 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Guess I need to go fill my gas cans up at lunchtime. Come 5pm places will be swamped. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:04:22 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Taking gym007 with you? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Guess I need to go fill my gas cans up at lunchtime. Come 5pm places will be swamped. 
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:07:08 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Guess I need to go fill my gas cans up at lunchtime. Come 5pm places will be swamped. But im off to fill, check and run the saws and generators... |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:07:18 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistorySlowing down sucks
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:08:26 AM EDT
[#25]
The media propagandists are already creaming their pants over another potential disaster in PR to blame on Trump.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:08:53 AM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:09:12 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Slowing down sucks Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:14:50 AM EDT
[#28]
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:22:41 AM EDT
[#29]
Where can I find the historical track? From origin to now?
I always found it suspicious that they leave that out. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:29:06 AM EDT
[#30]
The storm have moved to the east of PR, there are going to be light rains and nothing more.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:31:40 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Where can I find the historical track? From origin to now? I always found it suspicious that they leave that out. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:48:38 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote Historyneat.jpg
I'd still like to see the tail track behind it 
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:51:18 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Taking gym007 with you? |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 9:52:40 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
And when the virgin trsnsplants flee, like last year, there will be nothing at the pumps. But im off to fill, check and run the saws and generators... |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 10:13:02 AM EDT
[#35]
That shift to the NE as it passes Puerto Rico is bad news from this morning's model runs; a track along the Hispaniola coast could have torn the guts out of the storm. As it is, the storm looks to stay over some pretty warm water, favorable for strengthening.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 10:38:41 AM EDT
[#36]
Well I was going to go fill up my riding mower gas can at the non-ethanol place down the way, but now I'll wait I guess. I don't want people thinking I'm a (late) prepper or anything like that....
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:03:58 AM EDT
[#37]
pressure finally dropped below 1k
11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 28 Location: 17.5°N 64.5°W Moving: NW at 13 mph Min pressure: 999 mb Max sustained: 70 mph 
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:09:02 AM EDT
[#38]
Yay.
heading to Orlando friday to be there through tuesday. should be able to hit us pretty square on in that time. at least it seems to be trending out to sea more now and less direct hit to orlando. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:16:59 AM EDT
[#39]
And we're planned to fly into Orlando for a week's vacation on Friday.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:25:49 AM EDT
[#40]
 August 28 Hurricane Outlook and Discussion |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:34:51 AM EDT
[#41]
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:34:53 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
And we're planned to fly into Orlando for a week's vacation on Friday. 
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:37:12 AM EDT
[#43]
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:41:01 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We don't need a repeat of the 1935 labor day hurricane that hit Florida. I just came back from getting some basic supplies and filled up the gas tank. Beer, bread eggs and milk are secured!! I also have 2 more AR's showing up at the local fun shop. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 11:44:21 AM EDT
[#45]
predictive models do show it gets to cat 4 off the coast around central/ne florida
unofficial stuff - after that, modeling seems to want it to stay right along the coast of ne florida, move along the coast of georgia, and do a carolina hit now - as a cat 3  Attached File |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:09:53 PM EDT
[#46]
This just keeps getting better and better
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:24:27 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Bring beer! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
And we're planned to fly into Orlando for a week's vacation on Friday.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:27:32 PM EDT
[#48]
I'm late to this thread because I'm in Oklahoma, but where is this monster cat 3 again?
 Attached File |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:29:30 PM EDT
[#49]
I'm supposed to fly out of Gainesville on Monday morning at 5am for a much needed vacation. A major hurricane will most likely knock out power to my house for several days based on recent history. Plus, I did not buy trip insurance. I stand to lose approx. $14,000 plus profit from my business that will likely be closed for several days as well. FML.
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Posted: 8/28/2019 12:31:15 PM EDT
[#50]
I'm driving back to my house in Central Florida on Friday, hope to arrive in time to evacuate.
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