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Posted: 10/6/2023 3:45:13 PM EST
[#1]
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Posted: 10/6/2023 3:57:21 PM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m operating on 2 hours of sleep per night this month. Can you clarify this for me - I’m operating at 8th grade level atm and not able to figure out the meaning Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Also, you would have to lack a significant amount of the ability to be objective, if you believe the rabidity of the UkeBros and the non-UkeBros is relatively equal. I’m operating on 2 hours of sleep per night this month. Can you clarify this for me - I’m operating at 8th grade level atm and not able to figure out the meaning It was recently suggested, in this thread, that the non-UkeBros were as much of a disruptive group to the forum as the UkeBros. People that know me well, have described me as objective to a fault and I disagree with that assertion. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 3:58:35 PM EST
[#3]
Quote HistoryYup - I get it. But you aren’t going to find the off-ramp with Zelenskyy at the helm. That is going to be a non-negotiable with any sort of truce or peace plan. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:04:11 PM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How? There is no visible means at this point. It's over. I would love it be true, but after the dust settles you have to make deals with Rhinos and Democrats. That is a big engine of graft that ain’t stopping today. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:10:08 PM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yup - I get it. But you aren’t going to find the off-ramp with Zelenskyy at the helm. That is going to be a non-negotiable with any sort of truce or peace plan. If you lived in Ukraine and the phone rang, and a stranger asked you how you felt about Zelensky, how would you respond?  That said, I’m sure that he has majority support, but as the body bags continue to be filled, those numbers will wane. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:12:19 PM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Once you come to grips with the fact that victory isn't being pursued by NATO and that its sole objective is for Russia to remain embroiled in a war of attrition that provides supplemental funding to the military industrial complex to replace that lost after the GWOT, you'll understand everything about this conflict. NATO is prepared to fight Russia right down to the last Ukrainian. Tens of thousands of people are going to die and scores more will be wounded over the next few years only to arrive at a negotiated settlement that could be reached today with border lines being roughly drawn where the front lines are today. Ukraine doesn't have the military leadership or the resources necessary to retake all territory lost since 2014. If that's the metric for "victory" than there will be no "victory." The problem with your thesis is that neither side accepts the lines where they are today. Russia doesn't accept that they don't have all of the four "annexed" oblasts, plus Kyiv and Odessa, Ukraine doesn't accept that Russia has 20% of their country, including some of the most productive parts. Further, knowing that Russia doesn't accept having less than half of what they wanted, it's a given that Russia will invade again after the new lines are set and their military is replenished. Everybody knows that. Unless Ukraine joins NATO with those new lines. So NATO membership for the runt Ukraine is part of your deal? |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:17:46 PM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Now that we're in the situation we're in, what's the best outcome for the US and how do we achieve it? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. The best outcome for the US is to focus on ourselves and our own defense by pivoting resources to our security concerns, not Ukraines. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:21:15 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How? There is no visible means at this point. It's over. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I disagree with your premise that Congress will stop funding. The spice will flow. How? There is no visible means at this point. It's over. Even if there isn’t any direct Ukraine funding in the the new Budget, Presidential Drawdown Authority money will be restored in the Budget. I believe it was increased by roughly 2B for 22-23 to 13.3B(I could be off a little, I’m going off memory). The President also has a couple other routes to use to direct money, without Congressional approval - they are currently exploring one of them -, but they are somewhat convoluted. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:21:23 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The discord has been long since sowed by 10 or 20 members who are so obnoxiously pro-Ukraine and so quick and heavy with the "you're a commmmmmmiiiieeeee!" screeching that if they weren't mostly 10+ year accounts I'd truly believe they were reverse-psychology Russian agitprop. Even with the account ages I wonder. Now after a couple years of Covidbro-turned-Ukebro forum agitating I know I've finally reached a tolerance-breaking point and my observation lately is I'm not alone. Either way the sowing is done. Now we all get to reap. First of all, the number of pro-Ukraine folks that are so obnoxious is probably less than five. More importantly, the majority position (anti-Ukraine) is not only every bit as obnoxious, some of them go as far as denying proven facts (like Russian war crimes in Bucha, verified by independent investigations). Some of those are old accounts, too, and it leads some to think that literal Russians have hacked old arfcom accounts for the purpose of spreading disinfo and discord. Whether they are Russians hackers or not, they do accomplish that. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:23:17 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If you lived in Ukraine and the phone rang, and a stranger asked you how you felt about Zelensky, how would you respond? That said, I’m sure that he has majority support, but as the body bags continue to be filled, those numbers will wane. That’s a good point, the wrong answer and some goons might show up and Shanghai you into military service. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:23:43 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The problem with your thesis is that neither side accepts the lines where they are today. Russia doesn't accept that they don't have all of the four "annexed" oblasts, plus Kyiv and Odessa, Ukraine doesn't accept that Russia has 20% of their country, including some of the most productive parts. Further, knowing that Russia doesn't accept having less than half of what they wanted, it's a given that Russia will invade again after the new lines are set and their military is replenished. Everybody knows that. Unless Ukraine joins NATO with those new lines. So NATO membership for the runt Ukraine is part of your deal? Those lines would be negotiated at the negotiation table. That's what negotiations are for... Ukies seem to believe they are psychics and can tell what the future actions of countries would be - "it's a given that Russia will invade again after the new lines are set and their military is replenished" yet have been consistently wrong, or potentially easily duped by Ukrainian propaganda. Remember: The Spring Offensive was supposed to be the winning offensive and unstoppable. How did that work out in reality? Ukraine will likely never be a NATO member. Either an existing European country would object or Russia would invade again because of the NATO membership. Remember that they have been clear about this since 1991? |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:23:54 PM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How can a desire to save Ukranian lives be anti-Ukrainian? Stating the need for an immediate negotiated settlement is neither anti-Ukrainian or pro-Russian. It's pro-sanity. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:26:33 PM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No, acknowledge what we can or cannot do for Ukraine and provide the support that we can without assuming major risk on our end. Ultimately push for a brokered armistice sooner than later, as this is not going anywhere anytime soon otherwise. If they don't want to negotiate, Europe needs to take the lead on this in all ways and means. The majority of our resources need to pivot towards China and Iran ASAP. Please share your proposed terms of armistice that both sides would accept, and accept long term. Not baiting or trolling, really want to hear. Everything I've read, especially from the Russian side, makes me believe peace in impossible short of Ukraine's total destruction or NATO accession. Both countries are framing this as a war for their national survival. The aggressor side is lying about that though. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:26:53 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: First of all, the number of pro-Ukraine folks that are so obnoxious is probably less than five. More importantly, the majority position (anti-Ukraine) is not only every bit as obnoxious, some of them go as far as denying proven facts (like Russian war crimes in Bucha, verified by independent investigations). Some of those are old accounts, too, and it leads some to think that literal Russians have hacked old arfcom accounts for the purpose of spreading disinfo and discord. Whether they are Russians hackers or not, they do accomplish that. I signed up specifically because the Ukraine folks were ruining my reading. The forum was entertaining to read over my coffee and then suddenly everything revolved around Ukraine and everyone who disagreed (which polls show is a supermajority of members) was a Russian agent or pedophile. I've never been more annoyed by spam and bullying. As a pro-Ukraine poster yourself, it behooves you to make some sort of comparison, but it's simply not true in the least. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:27:09 PM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The problem with your thesis is that neither side accepts the lines where they are today. Russia doesn't accept that they don't have all of the four "annexed" oblasts, plus Kyiv and Odessa, Ukraine doesn't accept that Russia has 20% of their country, including some of the most productive parts. Further, knowing that Russia doesn't accept having less than half of what they wanted, it's a given that Russia will invade again after the new lines are set and their military is replenished. Everybody knows that. Unless Ukraine joins NATO with those new lines. So NATO membership for the runt Ukraine is part of your deal? Not if you want peace. Keep feeding the best of your society into the meat grinder and eventually Russia will likely take it anyway. It’s a tough choice. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:28:57 PM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Even if there isn’t any direct Ukraine funding in the the new Budget, Presidential Drawdown Authority money will be restored in the Budget. I believe it was increased by roughly 2B for 22-23 to 13.3B(I could be off a little, I’m going off memory). The President also has a couple other routes to use to direct money, without Congressional approval - they are currently exploring one of them -, but they are somewhat convoluted. There is always accounting gimmicks and just going beyond his authority. It’s worked up to this point. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:30:55 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It was recently suggested, in this thread, that the non-UkeBros were as much of a disruptive group to the forum as the UkeBros. People that know me well, have described me as objective to a fault and I disagree with that assertion. Thanks for the easy to understand clarification. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:32:11 PM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Why does Russia want to control and take over the Ukraine anyway? Its just more mouths to feed/starve, more area of responsibility and more cost of operation. I never understood this whole conflict. Does the Ukraine have ports, minerals or other resources or something that Russia wants to needs? Or just want to be a bad ass and Bully? To keep US biolabs and other provocations off of Ukraine. How do people not know shit like this? Ukraine is literally the deep state and military industrial complex money laundering operations center of the world. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:35:01 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Those lines would be negotiated at the negotiation table. That's what negotiations are for... Ukies seem to believe they are psychics and can tell what the future actions of countries would be - "it's a given that Russia will invade again after the new lines are set and their military is replenished" yet have been consistently wrong, or potentially easily duped by Ukrainian propaganda. Remember: The Spring Offensive was supposed to be the winning offensive and unstoppable. How did that work out in reality? Ukraine will likely never be a NATO member. Either an existing European country would object or Russia would invade again because of the NATO membership. Remember that they have been clear about this since 1991? I suspect your right about NATO but I don’t find it far fetched for Moscow to rebuild and attempt further “special operations “ down the road - Crimea was 2014 then this latest 8 years later in 2022. Plus I agree Russia could preempt membership by renewing attacks even if a Hungary or Slovakia didn’t object to Ukraine membership. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:40:18 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I suspect your right about NATO but I don’t find it far fetched for Moscow to rebuild and attempt further “special operations “ down the road - Crimea was 2014 then this latest 8 years later in 2022. Plus I agree Russia could preempt membership by renewing attacks even if a Hungary or Slovakia didn’t object to Ukraine membership. Ukraine is going to get squeezed either way. I think it’s extremely doubtful that Ukraine will ever be a NATO member. They are going to have to live with a border bully. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:44:57 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Those lines would be negotiated at the negotiation table. That's what negotiations are for... Ukies seem to believe they are psychics and can tell what the future actions of countries would be - "it's a given that Russia will invade again after the new lines are set and their military is replenished" yet have been consistently wrong, or potentially easily duped by Ukrainian propaganda. Remember: The Spring Offensive was supposed to be the winning offensive and unstoppable. How did that work out in reality? Ukraine will likely never be a NATO member. Either an existing European country would object or Russia would invade again because of the NATO membership. Remember that they have been clear about this since 1991? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The problem with your thesis is that neither side accepts the lines where they are today. Russia doesn't accept that they don't have all of the four "annexed" oblasts, plus Kyiv and Odessa, Ukraine doesn't accept that Russia has 20% of their country, including some of the most productive parts. Further, knowing that Russia doesn't accept having less than half of what they wanted, it's a given that Russia will invade again after the new lines are set and their military is replenished. Everybody knows that. Unless Ukraine joins NATO with those new lines. So NATO membership for the runt Ukraine is part of your deal? Those lines would be negotiated at the negotiation table. That's what negotiations are for... Ukies seem to believe they are psychics and can tell what the future actions of countries would be - "it's a given that Russia will invade again after the new lines are set and their military is replenished" yet have been consistently wrong, or potentially easily duped by Ukrainian propaganda. Remember: The Spring Offensive was supposed to be the winning offensive and unstoppable. How did that work out in reality? Ukraine will likely never be a NATO member. Either an existing European country would object or Russia would invade again because of the NATO membership. Remember that they have been clear about this since 1991? You have to get to the table to find out what Russia would agree to. They have to represent more than they would agree to, it’s part of negotiating. Ukraine can hold their position, that they want all their territory back, as long as the billions keep rolling in from the West(primarily the US). Russia can entirely withdraw from Ukraine, including Crimea, or we stop sending 10s of billions to force them to the table. Which one is likely to happen first? |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:46:04 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Those lines would be negotiated at the negotiation table. That's what negotiations are for... Ukies seem to believe they are psychics and can tell what the future actions of countries would be - "it's a given that Russia will invade again after the new lines are set and their military is replenished" yet have been consistently wrong, or potentially easily duped by Ukrainian propaganda. Remember: The Spring Offensive was supposed to be the winning offensive and unstoppable. How did that work out in reality? Ukraine will likely never be a NATO member. Either an existing European country would object or Russia would invade again because of the NATO membership. Remember that they have been clear about this since 1991? Same question for you - please post peace terms that both sides would accept long-term, keeping in mind the proclamations made by both sides - Ukraine declaring that they have the right to be sovereign and independent, and Russia declaring that Ukraine has no right to exist. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:46:37 PM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Please share your proposed terms of armistice that both sides would accept, and accept long term. Not baiting or trolling, really want to hear. Everything I've read, especially from the Russian side, makes me believe peace in impossible short of Ukraine's total destruction or NATO accession. Both countries are framing this as a war for their national survival. The aggressor side is lying about that though. I don't have one, those terms change by the minute. However if the longer they wait, the worse off that agreement will become. Ukraine isn't physically pushing Russia out. It's just not happening. They need to start looking at other options before they lose even more ground. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:48:06 PM EST
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ukraine is going to get squeezed either way. I think it’s extremely doubtful that Ukraine will ever be a NATO member. They are going to have to live with a border bully. If Ukraine will never be in NATO, is it likely that they would become a nuclear weapons state in order to attain MAD protection? Otherwise, their long-term existence seems pretty unlikely. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:52:38 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't have one, those terms change by the minute. However if the longer they wait, the worse off that agreement will become. Ukraine isn't physically pushing Russia out. It's just not happening. They need to start looking at other options before they lose even more ground. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Please share your proposed terms of armistice that both sides would accept, and accept long term. Not baiting or trolling, really want to hear. Everything I've read, especially from the Russian side, makes me believe peace in impossible short of Ukraine's total destruction or NATO accession. Both countries are framing this as a war for their national survival. The aggressor side is lying about that though. I don't have one, those terms change by the minute. However if the longer they wait, the worse off that agreement will become. Ukraine isn't physically pushing Russia out. It's just not happening. They need to start looking at other options before they lose even more ground. Are there other options? They believe they have to win or die. Russian Duma leaders are literally talking about slaughtering millions of them and sending more to "re-education" camps, and/or Siberia. I don't see other options for them, either, but I'd love know if there are. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:57:34 PM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If Ukraine will never be in NATO, is it likely that they would become a nuclear weapons state in order to attain MAD protection? Otherwise, their long-term existence seems pretty unlikely. Do you think that Russia would accept that outcome, I don’t. Realistically, Ukraine is going to have play politics to remain a going concern. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 4:58:07 PM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You have to get to the table to find out what Russia would agree to. They have to represent more than they would agree to, it’s part of negotiating. Ukraine can hold their position, that they want all their territory back, as long as the billions keep rolling in from the West(primarily the US). Russia can entirely withdraw from Ukraine, including Crimea, or we stop sending 10s of billions to force them to the table. Which one is likely to happen first? Quote HistoryQuoted: You have to get to the table to find out what Russia would agree to. They have to represent more than they would agree to, it’s part of negotiating. Ukraine can hold their position, that they want all their territory back, as long as the billions keep rolling in from the West(primarily the US). Russia can entirely withdraw from Ukraine, including Crimea, or we stop sending 10s of billions to force them to the table. Which one is likely to happen first? Chances are the billions stop flowing from western countries first. Russia, regardless of what happens, will likely never be leaving Crimea. Quoted: Same question for you - please post peace terms that both sides would accept long-term, keeping in mind the proclamations made by both sides - Ukraine declaring that they have the right to be sovereign and independent, and Russia declaring that Ukraine has no right to exist. No one knows the answer to your question because there have been no negotiations. Proclamations are immaterial to this, but especially so coming from Ukraine because they have nothing to back up their proclamations. Quoted: If Ukraine will never be in NATO, is it likely that they would become a nuclear weapons state in order to attain MAD protection? Otherwise, their long-term existence seems pretty unlikely. Russia and the US would never allow Ukraine to have nuclear weapons. In reality joining NATO and Ukraine pursuing nukes is the same thing and the same outcome - because NATO would want to station nukes on Ukraine's land. Not going to happen. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 5:02:12 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ukraine is going to get squeezed either way. I think it’s extremely doubtful that Ukraine will ever be a NATO member. They are going to have to live with a border bully. I have my doubts about NATO and EU membership forthcoming as well. Europe loves meetings, promises and announcements and then you follow up a year later a ain’t shit happened more than half the time and I don’t just mean for Ukraine or military issues, I mean generally. I do t think Russia will roll them anytime soon, so Kiev can try to use time as a buffer to prepare as much as possible should this go to negotiations next year or if it becomes a 38th parallel DMZ situation. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 5:07:41 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I have my doubts about NATO and EU membership forthcoming as well. Europe loves meetings, promises and announcements and then you follow up a year later a ain’t shit happened more than half the time and I don’t just mean for Ukraine or military issues, I mean generally. I do t think Russia will roll them anytime soon, so Kiev can try to use time as a buffer to prepare as much as possible should this go to negotiations next year or if it becomes a 38th parallel DMZ situation. A street corner drug dealer telling you that he’ll bring you back a dime bag and the change from your Benjamin has an infinitely better chance of happening than Eurotrash living up to a “commitment”, “pledge” or “promise.” |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 5:20:44 PM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Are there other options? They believe they have to win or die. Russian Duma leaders are literally talking about slaughtering millions of them and sending more to "re-education" camps, and/or Siberia. I don't see other options for them, either, but I'd love know if there are. Win or die? So what exactly does win constitute in that case? Russia also has a zero percent chance of pushing to Kiev, so I'm not exactly sure what win or die means here. Pushing Russia out? Walking away from lines as drawn now? There's a lot of gray area in between to assign so much to it. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 6:33:47 PM EST
[#31]
Just last year everyone was saying Ukraine will push Russia out completely by Summer this year,. Crimea liberated etc. Russia running out of shells and NATO making tons more. Headlines these days seem the opposite.
Fuck Russia but they know how to play the long game for their goals |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 9:16:44 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't have one, those terms change by the minute. However if the longer they wait, the worse off that agreement will become. Ukraine isn't physically pushing Russia out. It's just not happening. They need to start looking at other options before they lose even more ground. Your argument seems to imply that Russia is incapable of collapse from within and that their total victory in Ukraine is a foregone conclusion. I have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that the civilian and military leadership share your certainty that the war is inevitably lost and is just throwing money away for no reason at all with Ukraine's position only ever getting worse. Now you're obviously a SME on many aspects of this war, but your posts are so pessimistic that it makes me wonder - at least right now. Now if the Russians call up a million troops and go all Leroy Jenkins on Ukraine - yes, I believe that would be a disaster for Ukraine. So far, however, it doesn't seem that bleak. Alternatively, it's not inconceivable that the Ukrainians make it a few more clicks to Tokmak and put the Russian resupply to Crimea under severe pressure and land a couple more punches on the Kerch bridge. That alone would make their bargaining position a lot stronger if they wanted to sue for peace, right? |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 9:22:50 PM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. The best outcome for the US is to focus on ourselves and our own defense by pivoting resources to our security concerns, not Ukraines. Well, I don't know if I'd call it insane when you consider that Ukraine has done a pretty good job of resisting Russian aggression. It would be insane to keep giving the Ukrainians weapons if all they ever did was lose territory. As it is, Russians aren't running roughshod over Ukraine last time I checked. Now in regard to your "pivoting resources" comment, I have two questions: 1) Let's say we cut off Ukraine tomorrow; what does the pivot look like after the last penny has been spent on Ukraine? 2) Did we have enough resources PRIOR to the start of the Ukraine war to mount an effective defense against the security concerns you mentioned? |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 9:34:41 PM EST
[#34]
Last year I said the war would end with the following. This war ends with Russia keeping what it has now and Ukraine doesn’t join NATO or the EU. The EU doesn’t want another welfare state to subsidize and the “peace” treaty will include Ukraine not getting NATO membership.
Now that’s my guess. No one likes it but it’s the most likely scenario at this point. Once funding dries up Ukraine will be forced to negotiate peace and they definitely won’t have the upper hand going into them. Yes Russia will most likely invade again in a decade and our current government doesn’t care about that. If they did they wouldn’t have slow rolled aid to Ukraine. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 9:49:46 PM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Your argument seems to imply that Russia is incapable of collapse from within and that their total victory in Ukraine is a foregone conclusion. I have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that the civilian and military leadership share your certainty that the war is inevitably lost and is just throwing money away for no reason at all with Ukraine's position only ever getting worse. Now you're obviously a SME on many aspects of this war, but your posts are so pessimistic that it makes me wonder - at least right now. Now if the Russians call up a million troops and go all Leroy Jenkins on Ukraine - yes, I believe that would be a disaster for Ukraine. So far, however, it doesn't seem that bleak. This war is not lost, but it also isn't going anywhere and will just be an indefinite burn pit for money, people and resources just as designed. If the west got their shit together and Ukraine lasted the 2-3 years it would take to actually get defense production going (if they started today), they might have a decent shot. However all of that is still being slow rolled and talked about versus acted upon which makes it even more unlikely. If we aren't already doing that, which we aren't, then we need to conduct some serious analysis on alternate COAs that will limit the pain on Ukraine. Nothing is outside the realm of possibility, however you really cannot count the internal collapse of your aggressor as the definitive turning point you require to win a war. Honestly we've already been down that road, the west was confident that was going to happen within the last 18 months and here we are. Here's what I see happening. The tactical maneuver war is just about over, another winter will seal the deal on Russia's defensive position. Russia's defense production is quickly moving to create a wartime economy, and are shifting towards the weapons that are making headway in this conflict, UAS and EW. Their UAS and missile depth already burned through most of Ukraine's air defenses (and the west's while were at it), and it's just going to get worse with bigger and bigger OWA drones, more advanced UAS tactical systems, and exponentially more EW saturation. They know we can't compete with attrition in these domains very long and are almost dry. OSINT is already reporting more and more hits every day from long range missile and drone fires. That is the capability they are going to continue to exploit heavily, and they will be able to do it virtually uncontested indefinitely. Russia is not alone in this, and it's time we acknowledged that formally both within Ukraine war planning and our own. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 9:59:53 PM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This war is not lost, but it also isn't going anywhere and will just be an indefinite burn pit for money, people and resources just as designed. If the west got their shit together and Ukraine lasted the 2-3 years it would take to actually get defense production going (if they started today), they might have a decent shot. However all of that is still being slow rolled and talked about versus acted upon which makes it even more unlikely. If we aren't already doing that, which we aren't, then we need to conduct some serious analysis on alternate COAs that will limit the pain on Ukraine. Nothing is outside the realm of possibility, however you really cannot count the internal collapse of your aggressor as the definitive turning point you require to win a war. Honestly we've already been down that road, the west was confident that was going to happen within the last 18 months and here we are. Here's what I see happening. The tactical maneuver war is just about over, another winter will seal the deal on Russia's defensive position. Russia's defense production is quickly moving to create a wartime economy, and are shifting towards the weapons that are making headway in this conflict, UAS and EW. Their UAS and missile depth already burned through most of Ukraine's air defenses (and the west's while were at it), and it's just going to get worse with bigger and bigger OWA drones, more advanced UAS tactical systems, and exponentially more EW saturation. They know we can't compete with attrition in these domains very long and are almost dry. OSINT is already reporting more and more hits every day from long range missile and drone fires. That is the capability they are going to continue to exploit heavily, and they will be able to do it virtually uncontested indefinitely. Russia is not alone in this, and it's time we acknowledged that formally both within Ukraine war planning and our own. Great point - thanks; I hadn't considered much of what you wrote about. That is definitely something that can turn the tide decisively for the Russians. Personally, I've resigned myself to Ukraine aid being cut off - I just don't know when. In the meantime, I hope the Ukrainians can make the most of it. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 10:15:19 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, I don't know if I'd call it insane when you consider that Ukraine has done a pretty good job of resisting Russian aggression. It would be insane to keep giving the Ukrainians weapons if all they ever did was lose territory. As it is, Russians aren't running roughshod over Ukraine last time I checked. Now in regard to your "pivoting resources" comment, I have two questions: 1) Let's say we cut off Ukraine tomorrow; what does the pivot look like after the last penny has been spent on Ukraine? 2) Did we have enough resources PRIOR to the start of the Ukraine war to mount an effective defense against the security concerns you mentioned? The pivot after looks like Europe and other NATO countries stepping up with money for Ukrainian defense, pensions, and government workers considering they have the most at stake. Our country, America, focuses on threats to the US. Let the Europeans be poor before we make America poorer for Ukraine. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 10:19:21 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The pivot after looks like Europe and other NATO countries stepping up with money for Ukrainian defense, pensions, and government workers considering they have the most at stake. Our country, America, focuses on threats to the US. Let the Europeans be poor before we make America poorer for Ukraine. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Well, I don't know if I'd call it insane when you consider that Ukraine has done a pretty good job of resisting Russian aggression. It would be insane to keep giving the Ukrainians weapons if all they ever did was lose territory. As it is, Russians aren't running roughshod over Ukraine last time I checked. Now in regard to your "pivoting resources" comment, I have two questions: 1) Let's say we cut off Ukraine tomorrow; what does the pivot look like after the last penny has been spent on Ukraine? 2) Did we have enough resources PRIOR to the start of the Ukraine war to mount an effective defense against the security concerns you mentioned? The pivot after looks like Europe and other NATO countries stepping up with money for Ukrainian defense, pensions, and government workers considering they have the most at stake. Our country, America, focuses on threats to the US. Let the Europeans be poor before we make America poorer for Ukraine. You didn't answer my questions though. How does the pivot look like for us? Did we have the proper material for defend ourselves prior to the outbreak of the war? |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 10:31:08 PM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Great point - thanks; I hadn't considered much of what you wrote about. That is definitely something that can turn the tide decisively for the Russians. Personally, I've resigned myself to Ukraine aid being cut off - I just don't know when. In the meantime, I hope the Ukrainians can make the most of it. I do too, and I don't support turning off Ukrainian aid. I fully support passing off already replaced platforms, like the flat hull Strykers, M113's, M109's, etc. I am against unforested requests not allocated within the FY budget because the DOD eats those, and by the DOD I mean tactical level units and soldiers. It comes out of installation or unit training budgets. I am also against the transfer of PGM's and radars that we do not have a replacement already on the shelf for. Unfortunately this is quite a lot of them. We need to start manufacturing cheap OWAs to replace this, just like Russia, versus trading Patriots for Shaheds. I also think it's time to pull the rug out on Europe and place this problem in their lap physically, so that they actually have to act versus sending thoughts and prayers. Europe has been handing over large portions of their operational military to Ukraine and slow rolling new production so we already know they will be functionally useless when China happens, if there was any doubt in anyone's mind. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 10:37:24 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They also have a credibility problem with their Polish neighbor. Ukraine needs to have an election, get rid of Zelenskyy and start looking for the off ramp. According to Putin he wants to restore the old Russian Empire so even if Ukraine gets rid of Zelensky, there will be no "off-ramp." |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 10:39:10 PM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Please share your proposed terms of armistice that both sides would accept, and accept long term. Not baiting or trolling, really want to hear. Everything I've read, especially from the Russian side, makes me believe peace in impossible short of Ukraine's total destruction or NATO accession. Both countries are framing this as a war for their national survival. The aggressor side is lying about that though. My .02 on Russian war objectives is as follows i.e. terms they would accept. They wanted a land bridge to Crimea (they have it now, it could be more secure tho) They wanted a strong natural boundary with Ukraine i.e. the Dnepr (they have that in a few bits) They wanted to grab strategic resources and manufacturing in the east or destroy it (they destroyed it) They wanted to prevent Ukraine from Joining NATO (likely fucked that up), plus now they have finland and sweden trying to join... oops. So thats what Russia negotiates around. Ukraine... Well they want their country back including Crimea, and they are gonna try to join NATO. So thats the negotiation package on either side. RN, IDK that anyone really is willing to negotiate. If western support dries up, Ukraine negotiates. Then if they aren't idiots they build nukes which they have the ability to do. Cuz their NATO entry is far from guaranteed. If they have been really smart, they are building them now. |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 10:44:58 PM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: According to Putin he wants to restore the old Russian Empire so even if Ukraine gets rid of Zelensky, there will be no "off-ramp." Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: They also have a credibility problem with their Polish neighbor. Ukraine needs to have an election, get rid of Zelenskyy and start looking for the off ramp. According to Putin he wants to restore the old Russian Empire so even if Ukraine gets rid of Zelensky, there will be no "off-ramp." https://www.newsweek.com/russian-state-tv-russian-empire-restore-sergey-mardan-1830854 President Vladimir Putin announced a new Russian holiday, the "Day of Unification," on September 30, to mark the illegal annexation of the Dontesk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine. Putin declared them to be new Russian territory a year ago, following referendums not acknowledged under international law and he entrenched the move in the Russian constitution. "They call it the restoration of the Soviet Union. They say 'Putin wants to restore the USSR'. For any Russian person, for any person of Russian culture it sounds bizarre. For anyone who understands the retrospective of our national consciousness for the last 1,000 years. For us, the restoration of the USSR sounds a bit funny. What Soviet Union? Wake up!" He goes on to say Russia is capable of rewinding the clock 800 years to restore the Russian Empire. "We can rewind it by 800 years more," Mardan continued. "You finally realize what this is all about is the restoration of a Russian nation, the restoration of the Russian Empire! This is what the celebration on September 30 is all about." |
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Posted: 10/6/2023 10:48:15 PM EST
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just last year everyone was saying Ukraine will push Russia out completely by Summer this year,. Crimea liberated etc. Russia running out of shells and NATO making tons more. Headlines these days seem the opposite. Fuck Russia but they know how to play the long game for their goals Yeah ultimately that is the weakness or at least perceived weakness of the "west". Is that no one is in it for the long haul, and thats what Russia and China base part of their strategy on. And its also why the US and Europe should keep supporting Ukraine. Maybe with a bit better oversight than exists now, but at the end of the day Russia not winning in Ukraine is in the general long term interest of the west. |
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Posted: 10/7/2023 12:28:18 AM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just last year everyone was saying Ukraine will push Russia out completely by Summer this year,. Crimea liberated etc. Russia running out of shells and NATO making tons more. Headlines these days seem the opposite. Fuck Russia but they know how to play the long game for their goals Quote HistoryQuoted: Just last year everyone was saying Ukraine will push Russia out completely by Summer this year,. Crimea liberated etc. Russia running out of shells and NATO making tons more. Headlines these days seem the opposite. Fuck Russia but they know how to play the long game for their goals The russians were supposed to run out of missiles in summer of '22 too. lol But these things happen when you just soak up and re-spread Pro Ukrainian propaganda from twitter users.  Daemon's post in the last page is accurate. Quoted: Don't worry, Twitter user N$T_SBU did a spectral analysis of amateur video that just so happened to make it through the media blackout and he detected trace signatures of JP8 4 meters past a final defensive mine belt we don't really know the exact location of. This indicates that Ukrainian Brigades have broken through and should be expected in Melitopol any minute. I'll post 3 pages of uncorroborated Twitter analysis as proof later. If nothing happens for the next several weeks we will just pretend we didn't say anything. Also, in a stunning and brave move the western allies are pressuring South Korea and India for artillery munitions even though there is no problem with supply or production whatsoever. Much unlike the Russians, who are currently groveling at North Korea's feet begging for artillery rounds so that their soldiers can boil and eat them before they starve to death. I'm honestly just intrigued and amazed by the caliber of routine reporting we get to experience here, especially considering the fact that the people doing it have also declared themselves the arbiters of disinformation and truth. It's been taught for a long time that the "emperor has no clothes" model for warfighting is typically not successful, but apparently a lot of people know better. |
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Posted: 10/7/2023 12:52:13 AM EST
[#45]
The only effective Russian offensive is the one happening in American social media.
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Posted: 10/7/2023 12:54:05 AM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: "You finally realize what this is all about is the restoration of a Russian nation, the restoration of the Russian Empire! This is what the celebration on September 30 is all about." Openly admitting to imperialism now I see |
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Posted: 10/7/2023 1:00:42 AM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Openly admitting to imperialism now I see Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: "You finally realize what this is all about is the restoration of a Russian nation, the restoration of the Russian Empire! This is what the celebration on September 30 is all about." Openly admitting to imperialism now I see Technically Putin said it from the beginning that he wanted what was once part of the Soviet Union to be back together again along with that allowing the Soviet Union to be dissolved was a big mistake. |
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Posted: 10/7/2023 5:36:10 AM EST
[#48]
So the 3 ways new funds would be provided appear to be what I described previously about 650 million repurposed state department funds and transfer of US military equipment without replacement in defiance of Congress, using 400 billion from seized Russian assets and Democrats are claiming a one time only rarely used procedural tool to force a vote against any speakers control for 60 to 90 billion that if passed with a minority of Republicans would last till next years election
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Posted: 10/7/2023 7:56:31 AM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Do you think that Russia would accept that outcome, I don’t. Realistically, Ukraine is going to have play politics to remain a going concern. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: If Ukraine will never be in NATO, is it likely that they would become a nuclear weapons state in order to attain MAD protection? Otherwise, their long-term existence seems pretty unlikely. Do you think that Russia would accept that outcome, I don’t. Realistically, Ukraine is going to have play politics to remain a going concern. Putin has said that nuclear proliferation is not a bad thing, looking at the example of North Korea, because it allows smaller nations to be safe from big, imperialist hegemons (the US). And Ukraine knows they're in this position precisely because the gave up their nukes in the early 90s. I don't see any outcome beside either NATO protection or their own nuclear weapons. Realistically, it's necessary for national survival. |
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Posted: 10/7/2023 8:06:28 AM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This war is not lost, but it also isn't going anywhere and will just be an indefinite burn pit for money, people and resources just as designed. If the west got their shit together and Ukraine lasted the 2-3 years it would take to actually get defense production going (if they started today), they might have a decent shot. However all of that is still being slow rolled and talked about versus acted upon which makes it even more unlikely. If we aren't already doing that, which we aren't, then we need to conduct some serious analysis on alternate COAs that will limit the pain on Ukraine. Nothing is outside the realm of possibility, however you really cannot count the internal collapse of your aggressor as the definitive turning point you require to win a war. Honestly we've already been down that road, the west was confident that was going to happen within the last 18 months and here we are. Here's what I see happening. The tactical maneuver war is just about over, another winter will seal the deal on Russia's defensive position. Russia's defense production is quickly moving to create a wartime economy, and are shifting towards the weapons that are making headway in this conflict, UAS and EW. Their UAS and missile depth already burned through most of Ukraine's air defenses (and the west's while were at it), and it's just going to get worse with bigger and bigger OWA drones, more advanced UAS tactical systems, and exponentially more EW saturation. They know we can't compete with attrition in these domains very long and are almost dry. OSINT is already reporting more and more hits every day from long range missile and drone fires. That is the capability they are going to continue to exploit heavily, and they will be able to do it virtually uncontested indefinitely. Russia is not alone in this, and it's time we acknowledged that formally both within Ukraine war planning and our own. Given that assessment, I don't see any incentive for Russia to accept any half-measures or negotiations. Given that assessment, Russia will win, meaning they'll eventually destroy Ukraine's ability to fight, meaning Russia will take Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkhiv, and everything else that they feel like. Which, given their many public statements, means everything. They will accomplish their stated goal of wiping Ukraine off the map, ending its existence. And if they're turning the corner toward victory, they have zero reason to even consider a negotiated settlement. Right? I'm not even disagreeing with your assessment. Even with sanctions, Russia can continue building missiles, even if only a fraction as quickly as other industrial nations. I've been saying if western aid stops, Ukraine loses. Russia knows they only have to last a few weeks longer than the supplies from NATO. Once that aid stops, the war changes and Russia will no longer be limited to defense. In that light, Russia also has no incentive to negotiate or accept any limited "peace in our time" deal. Seems to me, if negotiations were to start now, it would be on the basis of Ukraine begging Russia for anything they might be willing to spare, which is just how Putin wants it. |
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