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2 AM UPDATE
271 WTNT31 KNHC 120543 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 51A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 200 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...DANGEROUS FLORENCE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 69.5W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 69.5 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through early Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through today. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the U.S. coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area on Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown NOTE: Last year they changed the Storm Surge prediction levels from 'above sea level at high tide' to now reflect the depth above ground at high tide!! Don't underestimate the surge potential just because your property is X ft above high tide. If the surge map shows a color at your location that reflects the depth of the surge above the ground you're on. |
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5:00am out...
current track has slowed, and shifted a more southward into south carolina, before moving westward again expect that hurricane watches and warnings to continue to be extended southward, depending on the movement of florence WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border. The Hurricane Watch for this area has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort |
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I sure hope this turns out to be less intense than it's forcasted to be. That may not be the case however
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As of 0500, looks like it is still shifting south. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/342261/032641_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind-668994.JPG View Quote |
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NHC is now predicting landfall over Myrtle Beach, SC. The 5 AM forecast really shows a bow southward shortly before landfall. Almost a 70 mle shift.
It now appears the eye won't even touch NC, but they will still get a huge effect from the storm. Time will tell. |
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hurricane force winds start hitting the coast about 36 hours or so. models put it at about cat 4 or a cat 3 at that time.
people in the newly affected areas need to check your flood, surge, and inundation potential Attached File |
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Bugged out from Southern Onslow Co. this morning. Two vics, four packs, seven fuzzballs.
Later than desired,but lack of sleep would've been more dangerous. |
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Figures that as soon as I rented a trailer and bought 300lbs of propane for the generator this bitch would go somewhere else. You're welcome Virginia.
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It has changed dramatically for my area (Culpeper, VA). Wind and rain... projected... is half or more less.
Which is great news as this year we were approaching 4 ft of rain so far. |
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If you are expecting to go through life with no bad weather, all sunny skies, no scary storms, never a power outage, then, no you won't be OK. You need to invest in an RV and resolve to drive perpetually to avoid storms. Because they have always happened and they aren't going away. Now with the population density on the coast people living right on the coast (there is a reason the coast wasn't developed until relatively recently) the entire eastern seaboard must evacuate a week before every hurricane. Or you can realize that you live where those people are going to escape the storm. There will probably be flooding. There will probably be electrical outages. Buy there won't be mass casualties. When I was a kid we regularly went without power. First living in the pa mountains during ice storms and floods, then in Florida when we moved there. The electricity goes out frequently where I live. I manage. I do more than manage, I have my own little party with my preps. For cripes sake, some of you people need to get a grip. People have been living in the aftermath of hurricanes for centuries. A lot of y'all don't even live on the coast and you're peeing your pants. You aren't going to die because the electricity goes out for awhile. If you live in a low lying area you don't have to bug out to Arizona, stay with a friend that doesn't live in a low lying area. Y'all wouldn't have lasted a year in rural PA in the 50's. We had floods EVERY YEAR! We also had ice storms every year!! We knew this and prepared the best we could. So wipe your face off with a hankie and act like a man. Except those that live on the coast. You need to go somewhere else. Or not. You roll the dice, you take your chances. I can't wait to see GD when tshtf. It will almost be as many tears as when Trump won. View Quote I've never been through a hurricane as a home owner, so I never really thought about any of the "stuff I need to take care of my house" before. I am not concerned about anything but property damage here, with most of the threats mitigated. As for my supplies: I already had propane for brewing. I already had plywood for a project I am working on. I already had firewood for ourside fires. I already had charcoal for cooking out. I already had some food and water since I've always had an eye for self reliance. The only things I rushed out to buy were: a large tarp (in case shingles blow off, something I never had to think about before), and a generator (I'm worried about property damage if my sump pump stops working due to no power and we get 15" of rain). I am not worried about running anything else in my house. I don't even care about the food in my fridge. Like I said in my original post: I think we are fine here. What I am concerned about is relatives by the coast. The sensationalist media is making it sound like everyone near the coast is going to die. I realize they blow things out of proportion, which is why I came here to ask other's experience. I am slightly concerned about flooding for them (though from what I can tell, property damage would be more likely than life threatening flooding. I do know that their neighbors down the street who live right next to a creek need to leave as their house has flooded in the past due to regular rain storms. Those people staying in that house could very likely die if they stayed). I don't know how bad wind damage is from various category hurricanes close to the coast, which is why I came here to ask. Alternatively I guess you continue to read into what people are saying, pretend everyone is losing their minds, and feel smugly superior to the imaginary people that you have created. Its really your call. ETA::Oh yeah, and all this is based on the ORIGINAL predicted path. It is now further south, so things are looking better. Doesn't invalidate anything I said, or make your unhinged response any more connected with reality. |
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My hometown is going to get absolutely hammered.
Parents are leaving this morning headed to Greenville and my sister and her husband are in Charleston considering riding it out. Same with my cousins on Sullivans Island The house I grew up in might not be there much longer. |
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My hometown is going to get absolutely hammered. Parents are leaving this morning headed to Greenville and my sister and her husband are in Charleston considering riding it out. Same with my cousins on Sullivans Island The house I grew up in might not be there much longer. View Quote |
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If you would slow down for 2 seconds, and read my actual post, you may realize nothing you said in your post resembles what I've said in mine. I've never been through a hurricane as a home owner, so I never really thought about any of the "stuff I need to take care of my house" before. I am not concerned about anything but property damage here, with most of the threats mitigated. As for my supplies: I already had propane for brewing. I already had plywood for a project I am working on. I already had firewood for ourside fires. I already had charcoal for cooking out. I already had some food and water since I've always had an eye for self reliance. The only things I rushed out to buy were: a large tarp (in case shingles blow off, something I never had to think about before), and a generator (I'm worried about property damage if my sump pump stops working due to no power and we get 15" of rain). I am not worried about running anything else in my house. I don't even care about the food in my fridge. Like I said in my original post: I think we are fine here. What I am concerned about is relatives by the coast. The sensationalist media is making it sound like everyone near the coast is going to die. I realize they blow things out of proportion, which is why I came here to ask other's experience. I am slightly concerned about flooding for them (though from what I can tell, property damage would be more likely than life threatening flooding. I do know that their neighbors down the street who live right next to a creek need to leave as their house has flooded in the past due to regular rain storms. Those people staying in that house could very likely die if they stayed). I don't know how bad wind damage is from various category hurricanes close to the coast, which is why I came here to ask. Alternatively I guess you continue to read into what people are saying, pretend everyone is losing their minds, and feel smugly superior to the imaginary people that you have created. Its really your call. ETA::Oh yeah, and all this is based on the ORIGINAL predicted path. It is now further south, so things are looking better. Doesn't invalidate anything I said, or make your unhinged response any more connected with reality. View Quote Lol. |
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puerto rico is so corrupt that, some of the mayors of towns were refusing allowing u.s. fema supplies from being given out because the u.s. .mil people were going to be giving them out - that is, they wanted to be given the supplies, so they could sell, or otherwise control, who got supplies.
(info told to me by puerto ricans while I was there) |
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I know many folks won't give a shit but for Pete's sake if you have to evac, take your pets with you. I just read where people are cutting their dogs and cats loose before they bug out, because they're staying at a hotel and don't want to pay extra for them. View Quote Even If I have to live out of my truck, my dog will be with me. |
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fuck those people, some assholes down here tied them to a fucking pole. coc violation if i say more. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I know many folks won't give a shit but for Pete's sake if you have to evac, take your pets with you. I just read where people are cutting their dogs and cats loose before they bug out, because they're staying at a hotel and don't want to pay extra for them. |
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NHC is now predicting landfall over Myrtle Beach, SC. The 5 AM forecast really shows a bow southward shortly before landfall. Almost a 70 mle shift. It now appears the eye won't even touch NC, but they will still get a huge effect from the storm. Time will tell. View Quote |
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We went from 10-15 in of rain to 2-4. Still on ton but wow. Winds went way down as well. Great for us all things considered.
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Leaving Savannah based on shifting track. I've been thru a dozen plus hurricanes. This one scares me more than any other.
Be safe everyone. |
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Did someone from Iowa post " move then..." Lol. View Quote This is what I was referring to. While Columbia and the other cities far inland will get rain, tornadoes, power outages, etc, it's nowhere near what happens right on the coast. The logistics of evacuation every state in it's entirety on the Eastern seaboard is more dangerous than just staying where you are and learning to deal with it. For one thing it makes it more likely the coastal folks will have the resources to evacuate. People are suggesting evacuation for inland folks just to avoid a power outage. These things have happened with no warning at all. For instance many years ago there was a tropical storm or something and horrific flooding where my friends live near Asheville NC. There were roads closed for months. The flooding was epic for some people. This came out of nowhere. Now people are suggesting everyone leave entire states. If you could quantitate misery and compare the evacuation misery to what happens when there is a surprise storm misery which would be worse? It's possible, and very likely, that inland people will survive just fine if they use common sense. The hysteria (for some) is worse than the storm. This is exactly what I was talking about in my first post. Not people on the coast, not people that live on a river, but the people in places like raliegh and Columbia that are overreacting. It's possible to go a few days without power. Even with kids. We did it when I was a kid many times. I guess because my parents acted like grown ups the fear didn't transfer to me. Power could go out at any time for any reason, people should be prepared for that regardless of if there is a storm on the way. I should post a pic of the time out street flooded. Water covered the mailbox. There was no hurricane, just a poorly timed rainstorm. The media hysteria is making people panic in places where they should not be panicking. By the time they drive to New Mexico and back the power will be back on. The angst from sitting in traffic will be worse than sitting in your chair listening to a battery powered radio in front of your battery powered fan. |
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Jumping the relay only works on some vehicles. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes |
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I drove all night from Carolina Beach to Atlanta only to see the forecast of it coming this way. Oh, well, still better than where I was.
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Quoted: Lol the PR response was pretty good actually for being at the far end of an overwater logistics chain. It’s not Trump’s fault the PRs are lazy and their politicians are corrupt. View Quote If it weren’t for the dancing and fucking culture a whole lot more would have been accomplished. I’ve never witnessed the political leadership of an area play the victim card so hard and reek of incompetence as bad as down there. Afghans has less excuses. There was no PR version of the Cajun navy helping out fellow citizens. |
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puerto rico is so corrupt that, some of the mayors of towns were refusing allowing u.s. fema supplies from being given out because the u.s. .mil people were going to be giving them out - that is, they wanted to be given the supplies, so they could sell, or otherwise control, who got supplies. (info told to me by puerto ricans while I was there) View Quote |
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My hometown is going to get absolutely hammered. Parents are leaving this morning headed to Greenville and my sister and her husband are in Charleston considering riding it out. Same with my cousins on Sullivans Island The house I grew up in might not be there much longer. View Quote |
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Here is my street after a 100 year rain. We didn't have this after Mathew, we had trees everywhere.
Attached File Dumbass driving through it. Attached File |
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Surf report on WB this morning is fucking dogshit. The cosmos is telling me something. Time to unass this AO and seek higher ground. Reckon that means the QC because FL will be cut off from NC from eastern GA and SC flooding. No better option seems available to me as of right now.
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Quoted:
puerto rico is so corrupt that, some of the mayors of towns were refusing allowing u.s. fema supplies from being given out because the u.s. .mil people were going to be giving them out - that is, they wanted to be given the supplies, so they could sell, or otherwise control, who got supplies. (info told to me by puerto ricans while I was there) View Quote |
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You guys on the SC coast on down in to GA who have been reading this, making preps...this thing looks like it's coming for you now. Get ready for the worst- hit the road if you can. GTFO from the coastal areas. Nobody really knows where this thing is gonna make landfall or go when it does.
Some of the wrong people have probably breathed a "sigh of relief" too early in the game. This always happens in Florida...it's too unpredictable- anyone who COULD be affected needs to behave as if they WILL be affected. |
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The post above yours mentions people in.columbia freaking out. This is what I was referring to. While Columbia and the other cities far inland will get rain, tornadoes, power outages, etc, it's nowhere near what happens right on the coast. The logistics of evacuation every state in it's entirety on the Eastern seaboard is more dangerous than just staying where you are and learning to deal with it. For one thing it makes it more likely the coastal folks will have the resources to evacuate. People are suggesting evacuation for inland folks just to avoid a power outage. These things have happened with no warning at all. For instance many years ago there was a tropical storm or something and horrific flooding where my friends live near Asheville NC. There were roads closed for months. The flooding was epic for some people. This came out of nowhere. Now people are suggesting everyone leave entire states. If you could quantitate misery and compare the evacuation misery to what happens when there is a surprise storm misery which would be worse? It's possible, and very likely, that inland people will survive just fine if they use common sense. The hysteria (for some) is worse than the storm. This is exactly what I was talking about in my first post. Not people on the coast, not people that live on a river, but the people in places like raliegh and Columbia that are overreacting. It's possible to go a few days without power. Even with kids. We did it when I was a kid many times. I guess because my parents acted like grown ups the fear didn't transfer to me. Power could go out at any time for any reason, people should be prepared for that regardless of if there is a storm on the way. I should post a pic of the time out street flooded. Water covered the mailbox. There was no hurricane, just a poorly timed rainstorm. The media hysteria is making people panic in places where they should not be panicking. By the time they drive to New Mexico and back the power will be back on. The angst from sitting in traffic will be worse than sitting in your chair listening to a battery powered radio in front of your battery powered fan. View Quote Gitarmac could have made a living as a tough love motivational speaker 20 years ago. Can't make ad revenue now without fear and most people are 87x's dumber than even I suspect and they prove it every day. We canceled plans to do stuff so we wouldn't be in the way of those evacuating from the coast and to free up limited resources (fuel) for those that need it more than we do. But....we saw this coming and stocked up last Friday. My local Lowes (25 miles away) still had tons of plywood yesterday which tells me no one here is even thinking about this (45 miles inland and at one time in direct line of travel). Prayers for those who are now waking up to an "oh shit" morning with even less time to prep or flee. |
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Surge forecast: https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge2.0/data/2018091200/mapsAGL/2018091200_e10_z6_c16.png https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge2.0/data/2018091200/mapsAGL/2018091200_e10_y27_c17.png NOTE: Last year they changed the Storm Surge prediction levels from 'above sea level at high tide' to now reflect the depth above ground level at high tide!! Don't underestimate the surge potential just because your property is X ft above high tide. If the surge map shows a color at your location that reflects the depth of the surge above the ground you're on. View Quote Get the fuck out. |
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It didn’t. Thanks y’all. Hope everybody in the path stays safe. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted: Yeah, if Matthew didn’t flood it, highly unlikely it will flood now. http://www.richlandmaps.com/apps/dataviewer/?lat=34.04249&lon=-80.94915&zoom=13&base=roadmap&expanded=24966|53759|52088|18518|38669|39665&layers=33844|24029 also seems like there is aerial photos google earth and maps from the flood dates in the history. |
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The way these things shift this far from land I wouldn't get too comfortable.
Although I need it to track north again because I already took Friday off and was slightly mocked for it. |
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Surf report on WB this morning is fucking dogshit. The cosmos is telling me something. Time to unass this AO and seek higher ground. Reckon that means the QC because FL will be cut off from NC from eastern GA and SC flooding. No better option seems available to me as of right now. View Quote |
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@LFLS84 A tree on the house usually doesn't kill people if they're in the middle, on the first floor. That location should be evacuated, though. The hurricane force windfield is a hell of a lot wider than four miles and a Cat 4 can take that house and move it somewhere else. All windows boarded, fridge emptied, and occupants fent. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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For someone that may be affected by this storm that lives 4 miles from the coast as the crow flies, 2 to 3 miles from the SC/NC border on the SC side, what windows should they board up today or tomorrow, if any? North, South, East, West? All of them? None? A tree on the house usually doesn't kill people if they're in the middle, on the first floor. That location should be evacuated, though. The hurricane force windfield is a hell of a lot wider than four miles and a Cat 4 can take that house and move it somewhere else. All windows boarded, fridge emptied, and occupants fent. Pine trees in storms scare the shit out me and I'm glad they don't grow where I live. |
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