Official Hurricane Irma thread - Page 8

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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:24:05 PM EST

[#1]

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That was WXRisk. He was correct for Sandy but Oh So wrong on alot of other storms that i quit listening to him.

Here is his take on the storm Sept 02 2017 video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f405Ojc7IPw

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That guy is the Alex Jones of weather forecasting. Sometimes he's uncannily right about an event but often times he's way out in left field.

Posted: 9/3/2017 12:26:43 PM EST

[#2]

Glad we got the insurance on that Chincoteague rental.

Posted: 9/3/2017 12:34:14 PM EST

[#3]

Currently in NC, Let's get this barracks party started.

Posted: 9/3/2017 12:36:00 PM EST

[#4]

Weeel shit.

Posted: 9/3/2017 1:02:02 PM EST

[#5]

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http://i.imgur.com/VN2IslO.jpg

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Posted: 9/3/2017 1:28:35 PM EST

[#6]

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http://i.imgur.com/VN2IslO.jpg

With current predictions I anticipate it landing somewhere around Roanoke

Posted: 9/3/2017 1:54:13 PM EST

[#7]

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With current predictions I anticipate it landing somewhere around Roanoke

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http://i.imgur.com/VN2IslO.jpg

With current predictions I anticipate it landing somewhere around Roanoke

The boat or the hurricane?

Posted: 9/3/2017 2:08:07 PM EST

[#8]

Trying to find a good image, but latest euro run keeps it offshore and recurves out to sea without landfall!

Posted: 9/3/2017 2:09:00 PM EST

[#9]

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The boat or the hurricane?

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A Cat 5 up the Cape Fear will punt the boat that far. Where the storm and the rest of Wrightsville end up I have no clue.

Posted: 9/3/2017 2:10:27 PM EST

[#10]

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Trying to find a good image, but latest euro run keeps it offshore and recurves out to sea without landfall!

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com has great renderings of models:

Posted: 9/3/2017 2:12:04 PM EST

[#11]

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Montana has the opposite problem. They need rain badly.

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Beat me to the punch.
Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations

Like moving to Montana.

Montana has the opposite problem. They need rain badly.

That's the one things I like about Hurricanes. When in the Gulf or over FL, the high plains states often become relative high pressure areas, and have sunshine for a week, followed by rain.

Posted: 9/3/2017 2:31:39 PM EST

[#12]

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com has great renderings of models:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090312/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_10.png

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Finally some good news, let's just stick with this one.

Posted: 9/3/2017 2:35:10 PM EST

[#13]

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Finally some good news, let's just stick with this one.

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It is good news as the euro is arguably the most accurate long range model... But it has not been consistent in it's runs, which suggests it is struggling with the setup. If it repeats the next few runs, then I will start feeling better. Or if the other models come around to it's solution

Posted: 9/3/2017 2:43:01 PM EST

[#14]

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That's the one things I like about Hurricanes. When in the Gulf or over FL, the high plains states often become relative high pressure areas, and have sunshine for a week, followed by rain.

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Beat me to the punch.
Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations

Like moving to Montana.

Montana has the opposite problem. They need rain badly.

That's the one things I like about Hurricanes. When in the Gulf or over FL, the high plains states often become relative high pressure areas, and have sunshine for a week, followed by rain.

They haven't had rain in quite awhile though. They have lost over 500k acres to fires this summer already and have widespread drought conditions. I have lots of friends and family there that are impacted.

Posted: 9/3/2017 3:04:46 PM EST

[#15]

Ready near the Wrightsvillebeach drawbridge.
Test started my Honda gennie that the survial forum made me lust for 8 or 9 years ago.
Got my lci water containers and my NATO jerry cans - haven't filled them yet.
Toying with the idea of heading to Walmart this evening and buying a small room sized window unit that I can return if not needed.

I have been waiting for this since Fran hit in '97 when I wasn't as strong - hopefully it passes us out to sea
South eastern nc has been lucky the last 20 odd years - well guess Floyd was bad but that was more of a flooding deal away from the coast

Posted: 9/3/2017 3:10:49 PM EST

[#16]

Hatteras Island looks fucked......I wonder how many new inlets will be cut through Rt 12 this time?

Posted: 9/3/2017 3:14:48 PM EST

[#17]

Uh OH

Posted: 9/3/2017 3:16:42 PM EST

[#18]

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Hatteras Island looks fucked......I wonder how many new inlets will be cut through Rt 12 this time?

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Irma says fuck yo' 12!

Posted: 9/3/2017 3:57:19 PM EST

[#19]

NVm.

Posted: 9/3/2017 4:08:58 PM EST

[#20]

So, out to sea? All that prepping for nothing? Just kidding, let it stay the fuck away.

Posted: 9/3/2017 4:09:59 PM EST

[#21]

The poster below me ROCKS!

Posted: 9/3/2017 4:25:29 PM EST

[#22]

Save the gif on your desktop. Go to Postimage.org and upload it. Hit "direct link" and your computer will automatically copy the address. Go to Arfcom and hit "Insert Image." Paste the address there and voila, gif.

Posted: 9/3/2017 4:27:42 PM EST

[#23]

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So, out to sea? All that prepping for nothing? Just kidding, let it stay the fuck away.

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Stay turned. Seeing out to sea still in play feels good. But GFS has been consistently murdering the Carolinas and the Euro control model basically trashes most of the Atlantic coast

For every good model run there is a pants shittingly bad one. No way of knowing which it will be (or none of them)

Posted: 9/3/2017 4:30:04 PM EST

[#24]

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They haven't had rain in quite awhile though. They have lost over 500k acres to fires this summer already and have widespread drought conditions. I have lots of friends and family there that are impacted.

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Quoted:
Beat me to the punch.
Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations

Like moving to Montana.

Montana has the opposite problem. They need rain badly.

That's the one things I like about Hurricanes. When in the Gulf or over FL, the high plains states often become relative high pressure areas, and have sunshine for a week, followed by rain.

They haven't had rain in quite awhile though. They have lost over 500k acres to fires this summer already and have widespread drought conditions. I have lots of friends and family there that are impacted.

They've been under the Jet Stream most of the summer. Storms/rain can't really build to large accumulations with that amount of shear. It's a whacky weather season. We were supposed to have a hot, wet summer, but it's been average so far. Hopefully a very strong low in the Atlantic will reorganize things a bit. We've gotten enough rain to be annoying, like 0.05 hundreths at a time.

Posted: 9/3/2017 4:32:01 PM EST

[#25]

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Stay turned. Seeing out to sea still in play feels good. But GFS has been consistently murdering the Carolinas and the Euro control model basically trashes most of the Atlantic coast

http://i.imgur.com/ujfq2iM.gif

For every good model run there is a pants shittingly bad one. No way of knowing which it will be (or none of them)

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Global Commie Elites got a hold of the Halliburton Weather Machine. They wanna punish Trump voters.

Posted: 9/3/2017 5:09:23 PM EST

[#26]

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Stay turned. Seeing out to sea still in play feels good. But GFS has been consistently murdering the Carolinas and the Euro control model basically trashes most of the Atlantic coast

http://i.imgur.com/ujfq2iM.gif

For every good model run there is a pants shittingly bad one. No way of knowing which it will be (or none of them)

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That looks a lot like Matthew...

Posted: 9/3/2017 5:14:14 PM EST

[#27]

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That looks a lot like Matthew...

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Yes, more buthurt for Nassau.

Posted: 9/3/2017 5:24:01 PM EST

[#28]

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That looks a lot like Matthew...

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Quoted:

Stay turned. Seeing out to sea still in play feels good. But GFS has been consistently murdering the Carolinas and the Euro control model basically trashes most of the Atlantic coast

http://i.imgur.com/ujfq2iM.gif

For every good model run there is a pants shittingly bad one. No way of knowing which it will be (or none of them)

That looks a lot like Matthew...

Posted: 9/3/2017 5:33:30 PM EST

[#29]

Latest GFS run is just as disturbing as the ones prior.

Model has to be over-doing it a bit, but that would be the most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, about to hit the Carolinas

The view above doesn't handle storms over land well, which is why it appears to vanish. Below shows where it would go after landfall

Posted: 9/3/2017 5:37:37 PM EST

[#30]

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Quoted:

Stay turned. Seeing out to sea still in play feels good. But GFS has been consistently murdering the Carolinas and the Euro control model basically trashes most of the Atlantic coast

http://i.imgur.com/ujfq2iM.gif

For every good model run there is a pants shittingly bad one. No way of knowing which it will be (or none of them)

View Quote

I thought we decided to just use the one that doesn't make land fall...lets just keep using that one

Posted: 9/3/2017 5:37:56 PM EST

[#31]

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Latest GFS run is just as disturbing as the ones prior.

Model has to be over-doing it a bit, but that would be the most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, about to hit the Carolinas

https://i.imgur.com/FlGHKKo.gif

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That's an evil bitch. Two thirds of NC would have hurricane force winds

ETA: something's odd with the GFS as the storm doubles in size along the east coast after coming thru the Bahamas. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, and really, really hope it doesnt. Just odd

Posted: 9/3/2017 5:38:09 PM EST

[#32]

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Latest GFS run is just as disturbing as the ones prior.

Model has to be over-doing it a bit, but that would be the most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, about to hit the Carolinas

https://i.imgur.com/FlGHKKo.gif

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Even overdoing it some, it's still going to be a heck of a storm.

Posted: 9/3/2017 5:44:53 PM EST

[#33]

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Even overdoing it some, it's still going to be a heck of a storm.

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Some? An 880mb would be the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record... and to have that pressure at that latitude? Not happening.

That's not just overdone some; that's physically impossible.

Meteorologists and hobbyists- this is IMPORTANT. GFS intensity solutions are ERRONEOUS and overdone...do not share them. https://t.co/W7AEzrmCWO
Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) September 3, 2017

Posted: 9/3/2017 5:48:02 PM EST

[#34]

This spaghetti compilation has been consistently marching south

Posted: 9/3/2017 5:51:24 PM EST

[#35]

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I'm hoping people outside of this thread are paying attention to this and looking into preparing before all of this is confirmed.

Though I'm not that confident.

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Everyone here in SC is watching it. That being said we have a large demographic who would watch a train coming down the tracks while standing on said tracks.

Posted: 9/3/2017 6:02:28 PM EST

[#36]

I have a bad feeling about this one. I am going to start preparing to bug out from central Florida tomorrow. I'm ready to sit for a cat 2 or maybe 3 but not for a 4 or 5.

Posted: 9/3/2017 6:10:22 PM EST

[#37]

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I have a bad feeling about this one. I am going to start preparing to bug out from central Florida tomorrow. I'm ready to sit for a cat 2 or maybe 3 but not for a 4 or 5.

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I just had a new roof put on in February, I am in no danger of flooding. The biggest cause of damage
in my area in 04 was from trees falling on houses. I am staying put no matter what.

Posted: 9/3/2017 6:12:24 PM EST

[#38]

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Everyone here in SC is watching it. That being said we have a large demographic who would watch a train coming down the tracks while standing on said tracks.

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After the flood and Matthew, I think that more people will be ready than would have in the past. We've had two practice runs now.

I know it doesn't help, but I really, really don't want another disaster. That'll be 3 years in a row.

Posted: 9/3/2017 6:17:38 PM EST

[#39]

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After the flood and Matthew, I think that more people will be ready than would have in the past. We've had two practice runs now.

I know it doesn't help, but I really, really don't want another disaster. That'll be 3 years in a row.

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People on the East coast of FL do not realize how lucky they were. It was about 30 to 50 miles away from being
the the most costly storm in dollars and lives.

Posted: 9/3/2017 6:46:50 PM EST

[#40]

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I have a bad feeling about this one. I am going to start preparing to bug out from central Florida tomorrow. I'm ready to sit for a cat 2 or maybe 3 but not for a 4 or 5.

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Funny thing, I'm in South FL and was looking to bug out to Central FL.

This one's got me worried. I was on the Space Coast for 6 years during only had a brush with a couple glancing blows from a tropical storm or two. This one has me worried since I just moved down here and am still gettin everything unpacked. Yikes!

Posted: 9/3/2017 7:02:01 PM EST

[#41]

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I have a bad feeling about this one. I am going to start preparing to bug out from central Florida tomorrow. I'm ready to sit for a cat 2 or maybe 3 but not for a 4 or 5.

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I gotta stay since I'm LE. My fear is it crossing the State and hitting Tally.

Posted: 9/3/2017 7:14:00 PM EST

[#42]

Severely overdone but HMON essentially removes Rum Cay from existence. That central pressure reading would be the lowest ever recorded... by a lot. (hence the overdone comment)

Posted: 9/3/2017 7:25:11 PM EST

[#43]

Latest GFS Ensemble shows tightening and southern shift. Intensity models show 100-125 mph maintaining.

Posted: 9/3/2017 7:41:34 PM EST

[#44]

My office is 6 layers of cinderblocks thick and other than some leaks has survived every storm since 1932 with only a couple of scratches. A direct hit on the VA Coast is no problem for me. I'll send the wife to the brothers house and ride it out. The looting will be ridiculous in my neighborhood.

Posted: 9/3/2017 7:42:48 PM EST

[#45]

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Severely overdone but HMON essentially removes Rum Cay from existence. That central pressure reading would be the lowest ever recorded... by a lot. (hence the overdone comment)

https://i.imgur.com/eaXSzcP.png

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857?

What the flying fuck???

Posted: 9/3/2017 7:43:32 PM EST

[#46]

NHC is moving "Kermit" the P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter down to Barbados to begin missions tomorrow into #Irma. @NOAA_HurrHunter pic.twitter.com/mGUblh4iKA
James Sinko (@JamesSinko) September 2, 2017

Posted: 9/3/2017 7:48:08 PM EST

[#47]

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Latest GFS Ensemble shows tightening and southern shift. Intensity models show 100-125 mph maintaining.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_intensity_latest.png

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090318_GEFS.png?86041613

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GFS has been wonky and unreliable of late, the pressures it has modeled are almost impossible and the tracks are biased to the northeast. It was reprogrammed after it blew the Hurricane Sandy forecast so bad but now it is probably worse than it was before then with the way systems are weighted. Wait a few more days for the other forecasting agencies to come into agreement, I'm thinking they will show a mid-South Carolina to southern NC glancing blow then a dance up the coast to the NC/VA line before turning east.

Posted: 9/3/2017 7:50:22 PM EST

[#48]

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Latest GFS Ensemble shows tightening and southern shift. Intensity models show 100-125 mph maintaining.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_intensity_latest.png

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090318_GEFS.png?86041613

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I'd put money on a MB landfall.

If she shifts a bit north, landfall may be at....Landfall.

Posted: 9/3/2017 7:53:41 PM EST

[#49]

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My office is 6 layers of cinderblocks thick and other than some leaks has survived every storm since 1932 with only a couple of scratches. A direct hit on the VA Coast is no problem for me. I'll send the wife to the brothers house and ride it out. The looting will be ridiculous in my neighborhood.

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What neighborhood?