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Link Posted: 3/2/2022 12:53:47 PM EST
[#1]
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I agree with you. I don't really understand why people think Russia is losing. Ukraine has a large military in a somewhat small place. Of course there will be a lot of Russian loss at first. I don't know because I don't really care about Russia or Ukraine, but it doesn't sound like Russia wanted to completely fuck Ukraine up. It'll come to thaf I assume, though. Fuck em both is my outlook on the situation.
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This.

I still think Russia is fighting with one hand behind their back. I'm worried about what's gonna happen when Russia realizes that they can't just drive into a city.



I agree with you. I don't really understand why people think Russia is losing. Ukraine has a large military in a somewhat small place. Of course there will be a lot of Russian loss at first. I don't know because I don't really care about Russia or Ukraine, but it doesn't sound like Russia wanted to completely fuck Ukraine up. It'll come to thaf I assume, though. Fuck em both is my outlook on the situation.


Putin's in a tough spot, as has been mentioned. Pretty sure he intended to swoop in, collapse the gov, capture Zelenskyy or make him flee,  install a puppet and get Belarus 2.0. I don't think he expected to get pushback so fast from the rest of the world.

Now he's stuck. He can't steamroll because that will end external Russian relationships for years, and he can't turn take and pull back.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 12:56:11 PM EST
[#3]
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I thought Russia was going to steamroll Ukraine...and on paper they should. Are they playing nice? Are their tactics just this antiquated?

Weird conflict.
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I do think they are trying to pull this off soft handed ly for a few reasons....

they share interrelated populations
shared languages/ neighbors
former sister state in the big soviet
hard to rule a population you just whipped and raped unless you are willing and able to stay ruthless for a long long time


I think their army is apparently also woefully under trained.  Morale isn’t in the troops for the mission. They might sing the song for the cameras when asked but I don’t believe they believe the official story either.  

Link Posted: 3/2/2022 12:56:38 PM EST
[#4]
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No one should underestimate Russian rockets. They still have a successful space program.
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We do too but it is called SpaceX.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 12:58:33 PM EST
[#5]
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I've been one to vocally claim that Putin is not a psychopath, i.e., mentally ill, but is in fact a sociopath with all his mental faculties intact.  The thought has occurred to me, though, that maybe the WuFlu, the isolation, the vodka, and/or other factors have maybe put him in the same dementia camp as Biden?  The lack of information coming out of the Kremlin has simply concealed it well?

Or did he just fuck up?  Did he really think this was going to be a piece of cake like Hitler taking the Sudetenland?

I think these are the fundamental questions that need to be answered.   It may be that the guy is a babbling fool when the cameras aren't on and the generals are already planning for him to get on the "wrong plane" that crashes into the Urals or something.
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I was watching a primary/secondary podcast and Chuck Pressburg said basically this. Putin is an extreme germaphobe who has been in isolation due to covid and he's not playing with a full deck now. I much prefer a sociopathic, calculating dictator than a nutcase with strategic nukes.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 12:59:25 PM EST
[#6]
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Putin's in a tough spot, as has been mentioned. Pretty sure he intended to swoop in, collapse the gov, capture Zelenskyy or make him flee,  install a puppet and get Belarus 2.0. I don't think he expected to get pushback so fast from the rest of the world.

Now he's stuck. He can't steamroll because that will end external Russian relationships for years, and he can't turn take and pull back.
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This.  He thought (correctly) that he had POTATUS well figured out.  He did.  What he didn't count on was the pure-D fucking stones of the comedian president of Ukraine, and the willingness of the rest of NATO to actually stand up and do something.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:02:25 PM EST
[#7]
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I've been one to vocally claim that Putin is not a psychopath, i.e., mentally ill, but is in fact a sociopath with all his mental faculties intact.  The thought has occurred to me, though, that maybe the WuFlu, the isolation, the vodka, and/or other factors have maybe put him in the same dementia camp as Biden?  The lack of information coming out of the Kremlin has simply concealed it well?

Or did he just fuck up?  Did he really think this was going to be a piece of cake like Hitler taking the Sudetenland?

I think these are the fundamental questions that need to be answered.   It may be that the guy is a babbling fool when the cameras aren't on and the generals are already planning for him to get on the "wrong plane" that crashes into the Urals or something.
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I doubt he thought it was going to be a cake walk. He knew the west was supplying state of the art weapons (NLAWS, Javelins, Stingers, & Iglas) which is why he chose to act now. Had he waited longer, he would be going up against western tanks and jets owned by the Ukrainians. But I bet he regrets not going all out in 2014 though.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:05:15 PM EST
[#8]
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It definitely means that armor is vulnerable in urban areas and when it's mobility is limited.  Armor is still valuable in large open lands where it can move and maneuver, such as in the desert.  I also suspect the Russia is not using their infantry like they should.  Infantry should be scouting in advance of armor to try to ferret out threats like the enemy with Javelins.  I get the sense that the infantry is sticking to vehicles/convoys and not used correctly.
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This. I am not pronouncing the era of the tank and IFV finally over, just because the Russians are so poorly trained, led, and motivated. Everything I have seen indicates piss poor tactics. So bad that they would be just as vulnerable to 1960s era RPGs.

Hell, we are seeing vehicles being abandoned intact just stuck in the mud, other vehicles traveling alone or in pairs, and the odd larger groupings of vehicles doesn't look like an attempt at combined arms, more like a bunch of dudes from across a battalion who might have known each other from their home towns or whatever, running around with whatever dudes would stick together.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:06:50 PM EST
[#9]
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It appears that an ACOG is mounted to each NLAW
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Thats what I was going to post, every one has an acog that is removable.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:07:31 PM EST
[#10]
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Perhaps best of all, they won't violate the local females, or smaller livestock.
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I figure eventually it won't even be boots on the ground. It'll be computer controlled drone swarms that control the battlefield. Raytheon or someone else will figure out how to mass produce weaponized drones that work in concert, carried into battle via drone transports, communicating with each other and their controllers safe behind friendly lines. No need to train, feed, and clothe human warfighters. No need to write letters home for KIA. No more medical expenses. They'll be faster, more agile, fearless, cheaper and easily replaceable. They also won't question orders or get blisters on their feet.
Perhaps best of all, they won't violate the local females, or smaller livestock.




But the liberals say to don’t risk yourself, let the rapist finish.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:08:13 PM EST
[#11]
Putin is quickly entering a no win scenario.

Even if he captures territory and Zelensky. He'll be mired in insurgency for years while his economy gets butt fucked and his trade partners are limited to small economies and China who will dictate terms I'm sure he won't like.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:09:34 PM EST
[#12]
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Putin's in a tough spot, as has been mentioned. Pretty sure he intended to swoop in, collapse the gov, capture Zelenskyy or make him flee,  install a puppet and get Belarus 2.0. I don't think he expected to get pushback so fast from the rest of the world.

Now he's stuck. He can't steamroll because that will end external Russian relationships for years, and he can't turn take and pull back.
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This.

I still think Russia is fighting with one hand behind their back. I'm worried about what's gonna happen when Russia realizes that they can't just drive into a city.



I agree with you. I don't really understand why people think Russia is losing. Ukraine has a large military in a somewhat small place. Of course there will be a lot of Russian loss at first. I don't know because I don't really care about Russia or Ukraine, but it doesn't sound like Russia wanted to completely fuck Ukraine up. It'll come to thaf I assume, though. Fuck em both is my outlook on the situation.


Putin's in a tough spot, as has been mentioned. Pretty sure he intended to swoop in, collapse the gov, capture Zelenskyy or make him flee,  install a puppet and get Belarus 2.0. I don't think he expected to get pushback so fast from the rest of the world.

Now he's stuck. He can't steamroll because that will end external Russian relationships for years, and he can't turn take and pull back.

This.

I don't believe Putin intended to fight his way into these cities. And I don't believe Putin intends to lose this war.

I really think Putin is in a tough spot right now. Destroy the cities, and he burns every economic bridge around the world. Fail to take the cities, and everyone believes Russia is a paper tiger.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:11:45 PM EST
[#13]
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A lot of factors are probably playing a part. Shit coms, shit supply units, can't take air superiority, enemy force is near par, enemy force is supplied greatly, enemy force has state of the art weaponry, and enemy force was pretty well trained via western military guys who spent the last 10 to 20 years fighting a GWOT.
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And I think most of all, in conjunction with all you said. The enemy force is determined.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:11:48 PM EST
[#14]
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:11:50 PM EST
[#15]
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Putin is quickly entering a no win scenario.

Even if he captures territory and Zelensky. He'll be mired in insurgency for years while his economy gets butt fucked and his trade partners are limited to small economies and China who will dictate terms I'm sure he won't like.
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My biggest worry is how China is going to leverage this to their advantage.

Putin backed himself into a corner, and China could offer all of the economic security that he needs.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:13:55 PM EST
[#16]
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Does anyone think it possible the Russian campaign is to burn up the clock and distract while China preps for Taiwan? Russia's execution of this campaign is lacking and not in line with their long perceived capabilities. Add to the SOTU from FJB about domestic manufacturing, like the plan is to give up Taiwan. Seems like a totally scripted scenario.
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nope.   Putin wouldn’t spend his capital like that.

Are they comparing notes and possible time lines?   Yes they are probably sharing half truths.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:15:56 PM EST
[#17]
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They have a lot already Leningrad/st Petersburg is full from the Great Patriotic war.  I think when the dead start getting shipped home the anti war protest will become huge
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Russia’s gonna have to start planning on a new war memorial


They have a lot already Leningrad/st Petersburg is full from the Great Patriotic war.  I think when the dead start getting shipped home the anti war protest will become huge




I have read that isn’t happening.   The Russians brought mobile crematoriums instead of shipping bodies home.  Are they sending a box of ashes? Don’t know the answer to that.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:15:58 PM EST
[#18]
Just let all your violent criminals out of prison and pass out the weapons...
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:20:41 PM EST
[#19]
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Maybe he actually believed they could literally just roll in and take it?

Even if Russia eventually gets a foothold there the Ukrainians can make things very difficult for a very long time. Take out patrols, IEDs, etc.
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Yeah it doesn't seem like a sustainable scenario, which makes me again question how someone like Putin could be so short sighted in planning and contingencies. Seems almost desperate.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:20:58 PM EST
[#20]
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This.

I don't believe Putin intended to fight his way into these cities. And I don't believe Putin intends to lose this war.

I really think Putin is in a tough spot right now. Destroy the cities, and he burns every economic bridge around the world. Fail to take the cities, and everyone believes Russia is a paper tiger.
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The entire plan hinged on being able to quickly take the capitol in Kiev and cause the Ukranian government and military to stand down. They even tried to leave Kiev airport unscathed so that Zelensky and his government could flee if that's what they were going to do, and leave a place for the airborne forces to land from which they could race directly to the capitol and secure it. When that plan failed Russia had no plan B at all. So just start sending waves of vehicles over the border into Ukraine with really no clear objective. Those vehicles and forces were probably going to constitute an occupation/defensive force once a puppet government was installed, which might explain why there weren't any logistic plans to keep them supported for an actual assault.

I really can't stress enough I think Russia lost this entire war when those two IL76 were shot down. Their entire plan hinged on the forces being delivered by those two planes being able to land and seize the capitol before anyone in Ukraine could react.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:21:20 PM EST
[#21]
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FO dog taking a break after a hard day
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That is a name I have not heard in a long, long time...
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:22:03 PM EST
[#22]
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My biggest worry is how China is going to leverage this to their advantage.

Putin backed himself into a corner, and China could offer all of the economic security that he needs.
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China cares only about China not Russia's Empire. Of China props up Russia I doubt it'll be to keep fighting.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:22:27 PM EST
[#23]
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Ok......but if California were a country it would be the 5th largest economy in the world, so that's really not saying a lot(according to the info I can't find)
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It's a country with the economy of California..spread out across 11 time zones.  If they were a college football team they'd be Notre Dame..constantly over rated.

Ok......but if California were a country it would be the 5th largest economy in the world, so that's really not saying a lot(according to the info I can't find)

And ironically, it would be socialist.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:22:27 PM EST
[#24]
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It seems obvious that what Russia is doing now was not really the original plan.

The initial plan seemed to be the surgical attacks on airfields and military targets using what cruise missiles Russia has, then seize the capitol quickly using airborne forces landing nearby Kiev and install a new government overnight.

Russia probably would have then moved into a puppet controlled Ukraine and establish or take control of bases to relocate their massed forces within Ukraines borders to defend their new land acquisition.

When Ukraine shot down the two IL76 headed for Kiev that likely had Speztnaz or some other SF group aboard, it really fucked the whole thing. I wouldn't even be surprised if Russia lost their best and most experienced SF troops on day one when they went down on those planes. How many can board a single IL76? Maybe hundreds and a few support vehicles e.g. BMDs. Times two, gone.

Everything since then has been Russia trying to strongarm the Ukranian government to give up. It just isn't working.

I agree with others, I fear at some point if it becomes clear that Russia is not going to control Kiev or Ukraine as a whole, they are just going to do as much damage as they can as punishment before throwing in the towel.

The best bet is Russia ousts Putin and blames the whole thing on him losing his mind.
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Very good points. maybe he did lose his A/B teams. The scenario you describe would be a more calculated approach to invasion than what were' seeing.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:23:44 PM EST
[#25]
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That is what soldiers are trained to say when captured. So it is hard to know for sure. The performance of Russian ground forces certainly supports the idea that they were not really prepared for a serious conflict.

Why they don't have total air superiority right now also raises questions.

I am sure they will eventually overwhelm the Ukraine, but it's going well for the Ruskies and they will pay a heavy price.
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And most were expecting to be welcomed as liberators. Hell a bunch didn't even know they were part of a war. They thought it was just an exercise.



That is what soldiers are trained to say when captured. So it is hard to know for sure. The performance of Russian ground forces certainly supports the idea that they were not really prepared for a serious conflict.

Why they don't have total air superiority right now also raises questions.

I am sure they will eventually overwhelm the Ukraine, but it's going well for the Ruskies and they will pay a heavy price.


Pyrrhic victory.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:24:03 PM EST
[#26]
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Warning - don’t watch if you’re squeamish.
https://youtu.be/XfVt4RTjwwo

Reports are that the Russians are reluctant to get out of their APCs, so when they’re hit the bodies just burn to ash along with the aluminum hulls.  The only way bodies are left is if they are blown out of a truck.  Also it seems likely that the Ukrainians are going to some pains to remove whatever is left before filming.

I hope no one will crow too much over this.  May God forgive the dead their sins, but it’s hard to wish the same for the man responsible for this.  What a waste.
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Whoa
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:24:15 PM EST
[#27]
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Just let all your violent criminals out of prison and pass out the weapons...
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Shit, NYS has been at war and I wasn’t told.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:24:34 PM EST
[#28]
Video by a local the morning after the battle. A couple of the vehicles are still smoking. Big pool of blood. UXO everywhere.


Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:25:30 PM EST
[#29]
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nope.   Putin wouldn’t spend his capital like that.

Are they comparing notes and possible time lines?   Yes they are probably sharing half truths.
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Does anyone think it possible the Russian campaign is to burn up the clock and distract while China preps for Taiwan? Russia's execution of this campaign is lacking and not in line with their long perceived capabilities. Add to the SOTU from FJB about domestic manufacturing, like the plan is to give up Taiwan. Seems like a totally scripted scenario.



nope.   Putin wouldn’t spend his capital like that.

Are they comparing notes and possible time lines?   Yes they are probably sharing half truths.

Yea, there is no chance Putin is sacrificing his own country just to serve Chinese interests.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:28:49 PM EST
[#30]
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Agreed. There is lots of room for escalation on the Russian side, though. I think Putin really thought there would be more populist support for Moscow and he would just be fighting minor resistance around the Ukrainian capitol. Now he has the choice of increasing brutality on the people he hopes to rule or showing the world that Russia is strategically inept by stopping the campaign. I'm afraid I know which one he will choose.
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I'm starting to get extremely concerned. Carpet bombing would get him a ton of anger, but he's already lost so much. What's left?

Putin is either removed from power, or I wouldn't put it past him to put a nuke over some empty land as a last-ditch effort to scare them into submitting. I don't think giving up is in his cards.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:29:39 PM EST
[#31]
So far the 'invasion' seems like something a crappy RTS game AI would do.

Send in 4 units.     Nope, that didn't work.   Let's produce 5 units and then send them in. Nope, that didn't work. Let's produce...
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:29:54 PM EST
[#32]
Good, now take their weapons and use against them.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:35:21 PM EST
[#33]
Block the roads with burning Russian shit and it becomes even more difficult for that "40 miles of pain" they are supposedly bringing.  Choke the roads and make them move in the mud.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:37:12 PM EST
[#34]
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I've been one to vocally claim that Putin is not a psychopath, i.e., mentally ill, but is in fact a sociopath with all his mental faculties intact.  The thought has occurred to me, though, that maybe the WuFlu, the isolation, the vodka, and/or other factors have maybe put him in the same dementia camp as Biden?  The lack of information coming out of the Kremlin has simply concealed it well?

Or did he just fuck up?  Did he really think this was going to be a piece of cake like Hitler taking the Sudetenland?

I think these are the fundamental questions that need to be answered.   It may be that the guy is a babbling fool when the cameras aren't on and the generals are already planning for him to get on the "wrong plane" that crashes into the Urals or something.
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I think he knows his days are numbered because of his age, and he wants to rebuild the Russian Empire before he loses it all.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:37:24 PM EST
[#35]
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:37:35 PM EST
[#36]
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If Russia keeps going, they'll develop into an occupation force.  Soon it will be a matter of Russia being able to support/afford that effort.
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This is a game of chicken between RU and UKR.  RU cannot sustain an occupation and UKR has limited resources by troop and mechanized comparison.

The last one to hold up the fight, wins.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:42:03 PM EST
[#37]
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Block the roads with burning Russian shit and it becomes even more difficult for that "40 miles of pain" they are supposedly bringing.  Choke the roads and make them move in the mud.
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Plus it looks like they are dealing with a spring thaw over there so trying to go through fields will end in getting stuck badly.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:42:17 PM EST
[#38]
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With the Javelin, the days of armor on the battlefield are basically over.
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People thought that too almost 50 years ago. Tactics and technology evolve.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:46:08 PM EST
[#39]
It's a start.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:47:14 PM EST
[#40]
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I thought Russia was going to steamroll Ukraine...and on paper they should. Are they playing nice? Are their tactics just this antiquated?

Weird conflict.
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Russians outran their logistics. Western anti-armor weapons.

Unfortunately this will likely result in Russian siege type encirclement of urban areas where they will use rockets and arty to reduce them to rubble. Mass civilian casualties and suffering ahead I am afraid.

I do see an opportunity for Ukrainian resistance, but it’s going to be a long bloody affair.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:48:04 PM EST
[#41]
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Thats what I was going to post, every one has an acog that is removable.
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It appears that an ACOG is mounted to each NLAW


Thats what I was going to post, every one has an acog that is removable.


What zero for NLAW ACOG?
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:49:58 PM EST
[#42]








Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:51:58 PM EST
[#43]
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I think he knows his days are numbered because of his age, and he wants to rebuild the Russian Empire before he loses it all.
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I've been one to vocally claim that Putin is not a psychopath, i.e., mentally ill, but is in fact a sociopath with all his mental faculties intact.  The thought has occurred to me, though, that maybe the WuFlu, the isolation, the vodka, and/or other factors have maybe put him in the same dementia camp as Biden?  The lack of information coming out of the Kremlin has simply concealed it well?

Or did he just fuck up?  Did he really think this was going to be a piece of cake like Hitler taking the Sudetenland?

I think these are the fundamental questions that need to be answered.   It may be that the guy is a babbling fool when the cameras aren't on and the generals are already planning for him to get on the "wrong plane" that crashes into the Urals or something.


I think he knows his days are numbered because of his age, and he wants to rebuild the Russian Empire before he loses it all.


....And that would make him literally Hitler.  They say Hitler had Parkinsons or something similar, and knowing he was in a race against time, he attacked the Soviet Union when his forces would have been better off waiting until the western front and Britain were secured.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:54:40 PM EST
[#44]
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I'm starting to get extremely concerned. Carpet bombing would get him a ton of anger, but he's already lost so much. What's left?

Putin is either removed from power, or I wouldn't put it past him to put a nuke over some empty land as a last-ditch effort to scare them into submitting. I don't think giving up is in his cards.
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And what if he did detonate a nuke, even over Kyiv? Who would do anything? He could do it because he has 500 other nukes and everybody knows it.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:55:05 PM EST
[#45]
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People thought that too almost 50 years ago. Tactics and technology evolve.
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Yeah people keep drawing parallels to battleships. Battleships didnt go away because aircraft could destroy them, but because the aircraft carrier could do their mission better. Dismounted infantry with ATGMS still lack the mobility to replace heavy formations ability to quickly capture terrain and hold it.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 1:57:30 PM EST
[#47]
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English is not your first language - am I right ?

Oh, but, I'm vastly influenced by your poorly written propaganda.

Really, don't stop.

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Putin and Russia are playing it carefully.  Trying to avoid civilian casualties and limiting use of military assets.  No doubt what so ever, that if/when Russia really commits, Ukraine will be steam rolled in little time.  Do not believe the media.  Always pushing whatever globalist/left/pro Biden narrative that benefits them the most.


English is not your first language - am I right ?

Oh, but, I'm vastly influenced by your poorly written propaganda.

Really, don't stop.


It reads better if you read it in FPSRussia's accent.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 2:00:20 PM EST
[#49]
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It reads better if you read it in FPSRussia's accent.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Putin and Russia are playing it carefully.  Trying to avoid civilian casualties and limiting use of military assets.  No doubt what so ever, that if/when Russia really commits, Ukraine will be steam rolled in little time.  Do not believe the media.  Always pushing whatever globalist/left/pro Biden narrative that benefits them the most.


English is not your first language - am I right ?

Oh, but, I'm vastly influenced by your poorly written propaganda.

Really, don't stop.


It reads better if you read it in FPSRussia's accent.


It really does. Or Boris and Natasha.
Link Posted: 3/2/2022 2:05:45 PM EST
[#50]
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