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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:11:13 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I edited my post. I didn't see you mentioned an AE It's cool. It wasn't you who said I was wrong. Still waiting on a link from @BillOfRights. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:11:56 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This wasn’t 10,000 Spidey apostles throwing in their bi monthly contribution. And it wasn’t 10 million 401k contributors either. Is there anyplace that shows where the inflows were coming from? Obviously, it’s big money. World Banks? China? Wall street collusion? Some of you guys have good insight. The financial news had no explanation that I could find. Anyone have theories? IDK, they're trying to say it was massive hedge fund short covering.  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/violent-p-500-reversal-hammers-203812571.html I think the FED pumped some money into it. It will show on the FRED balance sheet chart eventually if they did. The Plunge Protection Team still exists. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:17:20 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I buy the dips regardless. The dips have become predictable when ever the FED releases a statement or provides data. I think today was a result of a lot of people selling puts and short covering. Nothing more than that. Winner! |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:18:45 AM EDT
[#4]
People are impatient.
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:21:36 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: People are impatient. I know I am. 
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:22:44 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Cash is king right now. Give it a little while yet. We're going to see deals everywhere. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:26:14 AM EDT
[#7]
'money' ?
Jeasus-fuck, everything is nervous these days....and for good reason. If you aint scared, it's cuz you aint paying attention 
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:32:01 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: IDK, they're trying to say it was massive hedge fund short covering. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/violent-p-500-reversal-hammers-203812571.html I think the FED pumped some money into it. It will show on the FRED balance sheet chart eventually if they did. The Plunge Protection Team still exists. Do you have proof that the FED buys into the stock market? |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:32:05 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think the FED pumped some money into it. It will show on the FRED balance sheet chart eventually if they did. The Plunge Protection Team still exists. could be. but the drop yesterday on mildly bad news wasn't really much of a plunge. we've had many days this year go down that far. I'd be shocked in the fed bought equities. if they did, man, i'd prob short everything i could. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:33:46 AM EDT
[#10]
Buy land.
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:43:49 AM EDT
[#11]
Buy on the way down, buy on the way up. Time in the market, not timing the market.
Unless you need the money in the next 5 years. Then you have to be more cautious. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:53:28 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Do you have proof that the FED buys into the stock market? Positive proof they bought bond ETFs. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-has-been-buying-etfs-what-does-it-mean-11600704182 |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 8:57:32 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm not seeing the link between crypto and PMs. The target audience is different for each. Youngsters like the technology of crypto, oldsters like the shiny PMs. Oldsters are dying off. Except the central banks. I don’t see any of them buying crypto… Just gold. My money is on the fraudsters that got us into this mess. They sure as hell aren’t going to left themselves fail. Follow the banks. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:08:35 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Positive proof they bought bond ETFs. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-has-been-buying-etfs-what-does-it-mean-11600704182 Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Do you have proof that the FED buys into the stock market? Positive proof they bought bond ETFs. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-has-been-buying-etfs-what-does-it-mean-11600704182 Buying bonds is common for the FED and well known. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:11:23 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: PMs suck too. With inflation at 9%+++, you'd think PMs would be through the roof. Nobody wants that crap. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I buy gold from Rosilyn Capital. PMs suck too. With inflation at 9%+++, you'd think PMs would be through the roof. Nobody wants that crap. Manipulation |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:12:27 AM EDT
[#16]
FUTURES UP!
Like it or not, the math works out. Look at the dollar strength vs the price of gold and the inflation rate. We have to abide by the economic theory of the law of one price. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:20:12 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Manipulation Dollar strength has been a major factor and will continue to be until the Fed pivots. In most other currencies, gold has been flat to rising.  Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:22:35 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Dollar strength has been a major factor and will continue to be until the Fed pivots. In most other currencies, gold has been flat to rising. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/461570/dxy_PNG-2562477.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/461570/xau_PNG-2562478.JPG Every other country is in worse shape than us. Their money really sucks. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:27:44 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Who, and why? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Sure. It all happened between 10:30 and 11 am. Everything went up. Quite a coincidence.  Who, and why? plunge protection team there is a reason why the fed is never audited |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:27:54 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Every other country is in worse shape than us. Their money really sucks. That's so crazy how countries who have 20 work weeks, unfriendly business environments, a focus on climate change over production and a high tax rate are doing so poorly. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:28:28 AM EDT
[#21]
This has been a great source of information pertaining to the markets, thanks for sharing all of your insights everyone. Very interesting to say the least. Especially considering it is in GD.
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:30:58 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Buying bonds is common for the FED and well known. Sure, but they directly bought funds. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:33:14 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nobody wants that crap. Even physically. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:34:25 AM EDT
[#24]
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:57:07 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Anyone notice the futures starting to plummet? 
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Posted: 10/14/2022 9:57:49 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's so crazy how countries who have 20 work weeks, unfriendly business environments, a focus on climate change over production and a high tax rate are doing so poorly. China also not doing that great too.
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Posted: 10/14/2022 10:03:07 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: PMs suck too. With inflation at 9%+++, you'd think PMs would be through the roof. Nobody wants that crap. Because the 49ers of old are all dead and gone, along with the mentality that somehow owning a rock will help you eat in the future is being wiped out as well. Frankly, I'm surprised PM's have done as well as they have for this long. Bartering is how we would all get shit done. Not rock trading. As always, there would be some outliers that would still try and use rocks as a currency. But not the hungry ones. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 10:10:37 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How about a link to that $1775 American Gold Eagle, because I see $1869 there. LINK Apmex and my guy around the corner are both at 1889. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Wrong. $1775 today. Free shipping, no tax. You’re off by more than $100. Why do people always exaggerate pm prices. Provident, fwiw. How about a link to that $1775 American Gold Eagle, because I see $1869 there. LINK Apmex and my guy around the corner are both at 1889. Gold is a metallic Element. If you want to collect Gold, then any form of that Element is equivalent. Canadian, Austrian, British, etc. if you’re into Coin collecting, that’s a completely different fetish. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 10:18:09 AM EDT
[#29]
Looking like Friday may be another fun ride!
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Posted: 10/14/2022 10:50:38 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Gold is a metallic Element. If you want to collect Gold, then any form of that Element is equivalent. Canadian, Austrian, British, etc. if you’re into Coin collecting, that’s a completely different fetish. Except American Gold Eagles (and a few other sovereigns) are not subject to 1099's upon sale. I guess if avoiding government oversight is a fetish, I'm a freak. There's a reason there's a premium for them, even if you don't know it. ETA: So my point was and remains, you could actually own gold 4 months ago at $1800 for $1900. Or, you could own it today at $1660 for $1880. Spot has dropped, but the cost of actually buying some has not. Premiums for your shitrands has also increased the same. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 11:14:21 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Because the 49ers of old are all dead and gone, along with the mentality that somehow owning a rock will help you eat in the future is being wiped out as well. Frankly, I'm surprised PM's have done as well as they have for this long. Bartering is how we would all get shit done. Not rock trading. As always, there would be some outliers that would still try and use rocks as a currency. But not the hungry ones. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: PMs suck too. With inflation at 9%+++, you'd think PMs would be through the roof. Nobody wants that crap. Because the 49ers of old are all dead and gone, along with the mentality that somehow owning a rock will help you eat in the future is being wiped out as well. Frankly, I'm surprised PM's have done as well as they have for this long. Bartering is how we would all get shit done. Not rock trading. As always, there would be some outliers that would still try and use rocks as a currency. But not the hungry ones. People have been using gold and silver rocks world wide for 6000 years. No Fiat has lasted more than 200 years. Fiat is always inflated to zero value. It may not be in our lifetime, but silver and gold will probably take the center stage again .... until replaced by silver certificates .... that are then replaced with worthless fiat again. Rince and repeat. Why do the banks buy all the gold that they can? |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 11:18:54 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's so crazy how countries who have 20 work weeks, unfriendly business environments, a focus on climate change over production and a high tax rate are doing so poorly. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Every other country is in worse shape than us. Their money really sucks. That's so crazy how countries who have 20 work weeks, unfriendly business environments, a focus on climate change over production and a high tax rate are doing so poorly. amazing isn't it |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 12:43:00 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Looking like Friday may be another fun ride! https://media4.giphy.com/media/SrmLZIT3S8oFO/giphy.gif  Attached File |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 12:44:02 PM EDT
[#34]
capital always flows to the most efficient place to make the most risk adjusted returns.
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Posted: 10/14/2022 12:44:24 PM EDT
[#35]
My portfolio is down almost 3% today
 Feels like they knew yesterday was going to be abysmal so they padded it a bit, now we're back to the shitty news/high inflation and things are tanking again. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 12:54:26 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: capital always flows to WHERE THE OWNERS BELIEVE WILL PROVIDE the most efficient place to make the most risk adjusted returns. FIFY. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 12:58:08 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Here is my take. Lots of put buying lately, even on Apple. Look at the bank index today, xlf and the homebuilders index, xhb. Insane manipulation in the face of really bad news for those particular industries as rates are going higher, maybe much higher. Banks start reporting earnings tomorrow, no chance in hell that's gonna be rosy. Bottom line, this was program buying and market maker manipulation to try and dump more of their inventory, trying to lure short sellers to cover and dip buyers. Note that every single spike like today has been a good time to short or lighten up if you're on the long side this year. Didn't matter if it was stocks, bonds or commodities. And this move started yesterday with a lot of volatility but at the end of the day the indices were basically unchanged. They're just trying to lure in more suckers. Why now? I expect earnings are going to be a train wreck and they needed to front run the carnage that's coming. They did that exact move prior to the last cpi, ran it up prior and then when it came out and the pivot hopes were crushed yet again, they let the market fall. Also, as far as metals, that's a liquidity play right now. The dollar is too strong (or rather, other currencies are too weak, looking at you japan) and that's driving global liquidity problems. Our stock market is loaded with lots of worthless companies that are doomed to bankruptcy and as they die and jobs are lost money gets tight and people will sell whatever has value, with metals being a prime example. Pawn shops are going to be thriving. Ibonds, tbills and short the unicorns on bounces while going long energy. Energy is going to make sure inflation is killed off, so it's like a collar on the market. Shamelessly quoting myself because it looks like I called it. Homebuilders giving back yesterday's phony moon shot and over the next week or so banks will have given up all of yesterday's rally. No different than the spike in silver and European stock markets at the beginning of the month or junk bonds in may - market makers creating a fake rally to unload before more pain. And lol at the precious metal haters, letting the world know their IQs are in the bottom quartile of the distribution. I'd bet an eagle they went all in on crypto 
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Posted: 10/14/2022 1:00:38 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Shamelessly quoting myself because it looks like I called it. Homebuilders giving back yesterday's phony moon shot and over the next week or so banks will have given up all of yesterday's rally. No different than the spike in silver and European stock markets at the beginning of the month or junk bonds in may - market makers creating a fake rally to unload before more pain. And lol at the precious metal haters, letting the world know their IQs are in the bottom quartile of the distribution. I'd bet an eagle they went all in on crypto Shall I send you my address so you can send me the Eagle? Seriously. If you don't you're a welcher and a bum. I think PMs suck. Look at the performance since March. Gold has tanked, when it should be going to the moon. I own 0 crypto. Your move, bigshot. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 2:07:54 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My portfolio is down almost 3% today Feels like they knew yesterday was going to be abysmal so they padded it a bit, now we're back to the shitty news/high inflation and things are tanking again. 4.3% |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 2:10:32 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Manipulation Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: I buy gold from Rosilyn Capital. PMs suck too. With inflation at 9%+++, you'd think PMs would be through the roof. Nobody wants that crap. Manipulation Manipulation is a cop out. The real story is just the fact that some people are trying to trade inflation behind the curve. The first and most fundamental thing to understand is that markets are always trading the future, not the past. Inflation numbers that we are getting every month right now are in the past. They aren't telling us what is happening, they are telling us what already happened. Everyone knows we have high inflation, everyone has known that for almost a full year. It's a done deal. The market is already on to trading the next thing which is the Federal Reserve actively fighting inflation with aggressive rate hikes. Back in March 2020 when the Fed and our Government shifted inflationary policies into overdrive both Gold and Bitcoin started going up instantaneously. They worked exactly as one should have expected. Gold rallied from $1500 to north of $2000 between March 2020 and when they finally started raising interest rates in March 2022. Bitcoin hit a local low of $3,850 in March 2020 and hit an all time high of $69,000 in November 2022 which just happened to be nearly the exact same time that the Federal Reserved signaled an upcoming shift in policy in their November meeting minutes. You have to follow the conditions that create or combat inflation when trading an inflation hedge, not wait for the actual inflation numbers. The market isn't stupid. Nobody is going to bet up an inflation hedge at the same time that the Federal Reserve has made it crystal clear they will do everything in their power to fight inflation. Just because inflation numbers are still coming in poorly doesn't mean that the market that sets the prices for inflation hedges are oblivious to the direction things are heading. Whether it takes a recession or not, the Federal Reserve is going to keep going until inflation abates as far as we know right now. If you wait for the "effect" rather than trade the "cause" then you are light years behind the curve. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 2:25:12 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Plunge protection team keeping everything from collapsing until after midterm election. This!! |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 2:34:29 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Manipulation is a cop out. The real story is just the fact that some people are trying to trade inflation behind the curve. The first and most fundamental thing to understand is that markets are always trading the future, not the past. Inflation numbers that we are getting every month right now are in the past. They aren't telling us what is happening, they are telling us what already happened. Everyone knows we have high inflation, everyone has known that for almost a full year. It's a done deal. The market is already on to trading the next thing which is the Federal Reserve actively fighting inflation with aggressive rate hikes. Back in March 2020 when the Fed and our Government shifted inflationary policies into overdrive both Gold and Bitcoin started going up instantaneously. They worked exactly as one should have expected. Gold rallied from $1500 to north of $2000 between March 2020 and when they finally started raising interest rates in March 2022. Bitcoin hit a local low of $3,850 in March 2020 and hit an all time high of $69,000 in November 2022 which just happened to be nearly the exact same time that the Federal Reserved signaled an upcoming shift in policy in their November meeting minutes. You have to follow the conditions that create or combat inflation when trading an inflation hedge, not wait for the actual inflation numbers. The market isn't stupid. Nobody is going to bet up an inflation hedge at the same time that the Federal Reserve has made it crystal clear they will do everything in their power to fight inflation. Just because inflation numbers are still coming in poorly doesn't mean that the market that sets the prices for inflation hedges are oblivious to the direction things are heading. Whether it takes a recession or not, the Federal Reserve is going to keep going until inflation abates as far as we know right now. If you wait for the "effect" rather than trade the "cause" then you are light years behind the curve. I mostly agree, mostly. But your analysis doesn't explain two phenomena, namely, PMs and real estate. At a time when inflation has been the highest in 40 years, PMs should be to the moon. They have sucked since March, which is precisely when the highest inflation kicked in. That tells me a couple things - PMs have been decoupled from the larger economy, esp. as alleged hedges against inflation. Plus, old people who grew up idolizing PMs are dying out. Their heirs are going to be sitting on piles of PMs and they will be sold at an overall loss compared to other investments. It's a good thing the oldsters will be dead, because seeing what their heirs do would make them cry. RE has often been touted as an inflation hedge because rents can be raised, but as we can see inflation is directly tied to interest rates, and interest rates get hammered (upward) when inflation kicks in. This closes off the market to many newer prospective buyers. RE has been going flaccid lately, even in previously "hot" markets. It's going to get worse as the Fed tightens. That leaves the investor few options except to buy good things on sale, hang on, and hope for the best. I've been doing that, and hanging my hat on the HOPE that the midterm will at least take the starch out of Brandon's worst policies and give the stock market some breathing room again. Am I confident? Eh, sorta. But that's the best I got right now. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 2:50:15 PM EDT
[#43]
Looks like a blood bath. Lots of red right now.
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Posted: 10/14/2022 3:02:08 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Looks like a blood bath. Lots of red right now. It’s just a gully, that’s all. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 3:05:17 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 30 pieces of silver or so can off some pretty famous people historically speaking Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: so in the history of the world somebody having gold never literally saved their life, eh? boy was i misinformed!  Attached File |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 3:19:39 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Gold was about $2040 in Feb.-Mar. of this year. It's way down since then, while inflation has raged. As an inflation hedge, it has sucked. As an investment, it has sucked. It just plain sucks at a time when it should be on a roll. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The premium on a 1oz gold eagle has risen from $100 over spot, to $220 over spot in the last 3 or 4 months. "Gold" is $1668 right now, but it's $1888 if you actually want to hold it. Gold was about $2040 in Feb.-Mar. of this year. It's way down since then, while inflation has raged. As an inflation hedge, it has sucked. As an investment, it has sucked. It just plain sucks at a time when it should be on a roll. People don’t think market manipulation be like it is but it do. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 3:25:25 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Because the 49ers of old are all dead and gone, along with the mentality that somehow owning a rock will help you eat in the future is being wiped out as well. Frankly, I'm surprised PM's have done as well as they have for this long. Bartering is how we would all get shit done. Not rock trading. As always, there would be some outliers that would still try and use rocks as a currency. But not the hungry ones. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: PMs suck too. With inflation at 9%+++, you'd think PMs would be through the roof. Nobody wants that crap. Because the 49ers of old are all dead and gone, along with the mentality that somehow owning a rock will help you eat in the future is being wiped out as well. Frankly, I'm surprised PM's have done as well as they have for this long. Bartering is how we would all get shit done. Not rock trading. As always, there would be some outliers that would still try and use rocks as a currency. But not the hungry ones. Retarded or just historically ignorant, I’m not sure. |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 3:27:26 PM EDT
[#48]
A little over a year ago Redfin stock was almost $97 a share.
If it keeps tanking today it may end up $3 and change 
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Posted: 10/14/2022 3:41:44 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: A little over a year ago Redfin stock was almost $97 a share. If it keeps tanking today it may end up $3 and change  Attached File |
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Posted: 10/14/2022 3:46:07 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryI'll admit when it hit it's IPO price I bought some shares. I'm way down on it now, almost wondering if they go bankrupt or get delisted at this point |
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