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Posted: 10/17/2024 10:27:47 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
More VA info. Early voting in heavily Trump areas unlike anything seen in the past. If ballots require special paper or printing or envelopes repub investigators need to be tracking that stuff. |
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Posted: 10/17/2024 10:43:16 PM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheKill: Just a reminder: we need to go all the way to the wire PLUS three days of all out effort in EVERY state, make sure that the margin is SO BIG that eventually the bluest and most corrupt judges and SecStates have to step up and say "ok, enough mystery boxes of ballots and recounts, it's over". Exactly. |
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Posted: 10/19/2024 5:55:09 PM EST
[Last Edit: John_Wayne777]
[#3]
Casey in PA is cutting ads cuddling up to Donald Trump. Why? Because he wants to keep his job. "HE'S INDEPENDENT!!!" LOL. Bullshit. |
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Posted: 10/19/2024 5:58:52 PM EST
[#4]
So in the interest of avoiding a surprise next month……are there any (reliable) polls showing an alternate reality where Harris is ahead?
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Posted: 10/19/2024 6:50:39 PM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By arowneragain: So in the interest of avoiding a surprise next month……are there any (reliable) polls showing an alternate reality where Harris is ahead? The data is a mess. There are some pollsters putting out analysis where they say that Trump may win the popular vote but lose the swing states...which would be incredibly unlikely. In general based on everything I've seen, most polls are reporting the race within the margin of error in the swing states.
Past polling efforts that under-count Trump's support especially among voters that aren't high propensity voters understated Trump's support in prior elections on an average of 5-7 points (depending on poll and state). I believe we'll see Trump underestimated by at least 3 points in this cycle, most likely 5 or more. Which would mean he's comfortably ahead beyond the margin of fraud. There are some voters who are only making up their minds now in the closing days of the campaign. In 2016 they broke against Hillary in the last few days. In 2020, they broke against Biden, but not enough to overcome his advantage in early/mail-in voting. There are signs in PA, for example, that Harris is collapsing now. With weeks left until voting day. Hence the aforeposted Casey ad where he's outright saying "I'm an independent!" in an shameless effort to run away from Harris and keep his job. I do not think it will work. But that shows you how desperate things are getting. If it's that desperate in PA, it's going to be similarly uncomfortable in Wisconsin and Michigan. I was just speaking with a gentleman today who is a police officer north of Detroit. He says he thinks Trump will win based on what he's seeing on the ground there. "Nobody has Harris signs. The Trump signs are practically billboards. Things are different this time." |
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Posted: 10/19/2024 6:55:56 PM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: There are some pollsters putting out analysis where they say that Trump may win the popular vote but lose the swing states...which would be incredibly unlikely. Yeah, I'd say that both of those things happening is unlikely enough that it would almost certainly point toward cheating in the swing states. |
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Posted: 10/19/2024 7:11:17 PM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: The data is a mess. There are some pollsters putting out analysis where they say that Trump may win the popular vote but lose the swing states...which would be incredibly unlikely. In general based on everything I've seen, most polls are reporting the race within the margin of error in the swing states.
Past polling efforts that under-count Trump's support especially among voters that aren't high propensity voters understated Trump's support in prior elections on an average of 5-7 points (depending on poll and state). I believe we'll see Trump underestimated by at least 3 points in this cycle, most likely 5 or more. Which would mean he's comfortably ahead beyond the margin of fraud. There are some voters who are only making up their minds now in the closing days of the campaign. In 2016 they broke against Hillary in the last few days. In 2020, they broke against Biden, but not enough to overcome his advantage in early/mail-in voting. There are signs in PA, for example, that Harris is collapsing now. With weeks left until voting day. Hence the aforeposted Casey ad where he's outright saying "I'm an independent!" in an shameless effort to run away from Harris and keep his job. I do not think it will work. But that shows you how desperate things are getting. If it's that desperate in PA, it's going to be similarly uncomfortable in Wisconsin and Michigan. I was just speaking with a gentleman today who is a police officer north of Detroit. He says he thinks Trump will win based on what he's seeing on the ground there. "Nobody has Harris signs. The Trump signs are practically billboards. Things are different this time." *nods* Thank you. We may survive four more years, yet.  |
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Posted: 10/19/2024 7:13:54 PM EST
[#8]
Ground truth in MI (worth what you paid for it, nothing): I am getting so much political junk mail in MI right now… if it was a foregone conclusion in favor of Harris it would be unnecessary.
Fingers crossed. |
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Posted: 10/20/2024 4:45:32 PM EST
[#9]
what's going on in NC? the last 3 polls on RCP show a Tie or Harris lead.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/north-carolina/trump-vs-harris |
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Posted: 10/20/2024 5:07:54 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bdy83: what's going on in NC? the last 3 polls on RCP show a Tie or Harris lead. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/north-carolina/trump-vs-harris Are they only polling in major / dem cities? |
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Posted: 10/20/2024 6:05:43 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bdy83: what's going on in NC? the last 3 polls on RCP show a Tie or Harris lead. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/north-carolina/trump-vs-harris North Carolina is hard to poll under normal circumstances, evidenced by the fact that hardly anyone got it right in the last few cycles. Now? Now it's even worse because the voters who were already most difficult to reach became moreso since the storm damage. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 10/20/2024 6:14:08 PM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Yeah, I'd say that both of those things happening is unlikely enough that it would almost certainly point toward cheating in the swing states. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By John_Wayne777: There are some pollsters putting out analysis where they say that Trump may win the popular vote but lose the swing states...which would be incredibly unlikely. Yeah, I'd say that both of those things happening is unlikely enough that it would almost certainly point toward cheating in the swing states. I'd love to see the libtard states have their popular vote pact stuffed up their asses and all their electoral votes going to Trump. |
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Posted: 10/20/2024 6:27:42 PM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: North Carolina is hard to poll under normal circumstances, evidenced by the fact that hardly anyone got it right in the last few cycles. Now? Now it's even worse because the voters who were already most difficult to reach became moreso since the storm damage. Thanks. That makes sense. I guess I'll just have to wait for more polls from NC 
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Posted: 10/20/2024 6:36:32 PM EST
[Last Edit: Callahan]
[#14]
My $.02 as a Wisconsin resident. I have never seen so many political mailers, nor heard as many ads, or received more calls/texts then I have so far this election cycle. It’s absolutely insane the amount of money that is being spent here in Wisconsin.
Saturdays mail alone had 9 political flyers. |
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Posted: 10/20/2024 6:38:51 PM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Callahan: My $.02 as a Wisconsin resident. I have never seen so many political mailers, nor heard as many ads, or received more calls/texts then I have so far this election cycle. It’s absolutely insane the amount of money that is being spent here in Wisconsin. Saturdays mail alone had 9 political flyers. FWIW, this is not necessarily a sign of desperation. It may just be a sign of a well-ran campaign. There's an old saying 'there's only two ways to run for office - scared or unopposed'. A campaign that looks 'scared' may not be scared, they may just be taking this advice to heart and going all-out. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 8:16:27 AM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: The data is a mess. There are some pollsters putting out analysis where they say that Trump may win the popular vote but lose the swing states...which would be incredibly unlikely. In general based on everything I've seen, most polls are reporting the race within the margin of error in the swing states.
Past polling efforts that under-count Trump's support especially among voters that aren't high propensity voters understated Trump's support in prior elections on an average of 5-7 points (depending on poll and state). I believe we'll see Trump underestimated by at least 3 points in this cycle, most likely 5 or more. Which would mean he's comfortably ahead beyond the margin of fraud. There are some voters who are only making up their minds now in the closing days of the campaign. In 2016 they broke against Hillary in the last few days. In 2020, they broke against Biden, but not enough to overcome his advantage in early/mail-in voting. There are signs in PA, for example, that Harris is collapsing now. With weeks left until voting day. Hence the aforeposted Casey ad where he's outright saying "I'm an independent!" in an shameless effort to run away from Harris and keep his job. I do not think it will work. But that shows you how desperate things are getting. If it's that desperate in PA, it's going to be similarly uncomfortable in Wisconsin and Michigan. I was just speaking with a gentleman today who is a police officer north of Detroit. He says he thinks Trump will win based on what he's seeing on the ground there. "Nobody has Harris signs. The Trump signs are practically billboards. Things are different this time." Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Originally Posted By arowneragain: So in the interest of avoiding a surprise next month……are there any (reliable) polls showing an alternate reality where Harris is ahead? The data is a mess. There are some pollsters putting out analysis where they say that Trump may win the popular vote but lose the swing states...which would be incredibly unlikely. In general based on everything I've seen, most polls are reporting the race within the margin of error in the swing states.
Past polling efforts that under-count Trump's support especially among voters that aren't high propensity voters understated Trump's support in prior elections on an average of 5-7 points (depending on poll and state). I believe we'll see Trump underestimated by at least 3 points in this cycle, most likely 5 or more. Which would mean he's comfortably ahead beyond the margin of fraud. There are some voters who are only making up their minds now in the closing days of the campaign. In 2016 they broke against Hillary in the last few days. In 2020, they broke against Biden, but not enough to overcome his advantage in early/mail-in voting. There are signs in PA, for example, that Harris is collapsing now. With weeks left until voting day. Hence the aforeposted Casey ad where he's outright saying "I'm an independent!" in an shameless effort to run away from Harris and keep his job. I do not think it will work. But that shows you how desperate things are getting. If it's that desperate in PA, it's going to be similarly uncomfortable in Wisconsin and Michigan. I was just speaking with a gentleman today who is a police officer north of Detroit. He says he thinks Trump will win based on what he's seeing on the ground there. "Nobody has Harris signs. The Trump signs are practically billboards. Things are different this time." I would love to see Minnesota go Trump. If you take my street for example there are 6 Harris signs before you get to our house which we had two Trump signs up before one got stolen so now we have 3, big yard. We've had many people stop and say they like our signs but they are unwilling to put one out, cause libs are nuts. One guy riding his bike by with his little girl said "finally a house with some common sense" I've worn a MAGA hat (not the red look at me one) in Minneapolis and received compliments. I've got positive compliments everywhere with it. But I'll still be shocked if the state that found boxes of votes for Franken doesn't go blue. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 8:23:48 AM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Virginia:
Idonbelieveit.jpg I need to get off my ass and vote today. I'm going to do it at lunch time. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 8:24:58 AM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
More VA info. Early voting in heavily Trump areas unlike anything seen in the past. Bedford is pretty red, but the entire county is probably only one city block of Arlington or Fairfax. I jest, but it sorta is true. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 8:50:54 AM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By APPARITION: But I'll still be shocked if the state that found boxes of votes for Franken doesn't go blue. Part of the reason IMO we are all seeing more yard signs is an effort to make the cheat seem more realistic. LBJ cheated, Franken cheated, Biden cheated. They’re going to have to cheat their balls off this time but they’re going to try. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 9:26:04 AM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By macman37: Ground truth in MI (worth what you paid for it, nothing): I am getting so much political junk mail in MI right now… if it was a foregone conclusion in favor of Harris it would be unnecessary. Fingers crossed. Michigan will not have results ready on election night. So hopefully Trump doesn’t even need Michigan to win. I’m not looking forward to a long drawn out fight involving recounts and lawsuits to determine the winner. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 9:30:33 AM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74novaman: Part of the reason IMO we are all seeing more yard signs is an effort to make the cheat seem more realistic. LBJ cheated, Franken cheated, Biden cheated. They’re going to have to cheat their balls off this time but they’re going to try. They will have to cheat beyond obvious levels to pull this off. (2020 was obvious.) I have no doubt they are conducting the calculus on that equation right now, and that part of those considerations are on whether or not the military would support them. I think they'll conclude it will be better to take the L on this one and revert to undercutting Trump 2 at levels that would make "The Resistance" of Trump 1 blush. If they regain control of the house in 26 he'll be impeached for the crime of breathing. The Washington Post will have another Proton mail account for leakers. The Vindman/Ciamaerlla/Clinesmith types will come out in droves. Trump will have to actually be the nightmare they think he is and be absolutely brutal. JD will be a great media frontman for that. He'll need da Kayleigh/Sarah type press secretary, too. Damn. I am thread sliding. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 10:16:39 AM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74novaman: Part of the reason IMO we are all seeing more yard signs is an effort to make the cheat seem more realistic. LBJ cheated, Franken cheated, Biden cheated. They’re going to have to cheat their balls off this time but they’re going to try. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74novaman: Originally Posted By APPARITION: But I'll still be shocked if the state that found boxes of votes for Franken doesn't go blue. Part of the reason IMO we are all seeing more yard signs is an effort to make the cheat seem more realistic. LBJ cheated, Franken cheated, Biden cheated. They’re going to have to cheat their balls off this time but they’re going to try. You get out of the metro and Harris signs don't exist. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 10:21:24 AM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1911SFOREVER: They will have to cheat beyond obvious levels to pull this off. (2020 was obvious.) I have no doubt they are conducting the calculus on that equation right now, and that part of those considerations are on whether or not the military would support them. I think they'll conclude it will be better to take the L on this one and revert to undercutting Trump 2 at levels that would make "The Resistance" of Trump 1 blush. If they regain control of the house in 26 he'll be impeached for the crime of breathing. The Washington Post will have another Proton mail account for leakers. The Vindman/Ciamaerlla/Clinesmith types will come out in droves. Trump will have to actually be the nightmare they think he is and be absolutely brutal. JD will be a great media frontman for that. He'll need da Kayleigh/Sarah type press secretary, too. Damn. I am thread sliding. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1911SFOREVER: Originally Posted By 74novaman: Part of the reason IMO we are all seeing more yard signs is an effort to make the cheat seem more realistic. LBJ cheated, Franken cheated, Biden cheated. They’re going to have to cheat their balls off this time but they’re going to try. They will have to cheat beyond obvious levels to pull this off. (2020 was obvious.) I have no doubt they are conducting the calculus on that equation right now, and that part of those considerations are on whether or not the military would support them. I think they'll conclude it will be better to take the L on this one and revert to undercutting Trump 2 at levels that would make "The Resistance" of Trump 1 blush. If they regain control of the house in 26 he'll be impeached for the crime of breathing. The Washington Post will have another Proton mail account for leakers. The Vindman/Ciamaerlla/Clinesmith types will come out in droves. Trump will have to actually be the nightmare they think he is and be absolutely brutal. JD will be a great media frontman for that. He'll need da Kayleigh/Sarah type press secretary, too. Damn. I am thread sliding. Soooooooo would it be a stretch to say that, in minecraft, the dems are using polls as a ballot harvesting estimation tool? For how much they need? In Minecraft. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 10:38:20 AM EST
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By APPARITION: You get out of the metro and Harris signs don't exist. I’m in a town of less than 3,000 in Texas and there are some here. I would be very surprised to see rural Harris signs but the joint Allred/Harris signs I mentioned previously in this thread are certainly out there in my non metro area. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 10:39:08 AM EST
[Last Edit: 74novaman]
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1911SFOREVER: They will have to cheat beyond obvious levels to pull this off. (2020 was obvious.) I have no doubt they are conducting the calculus on that equation right now, and that part of those considerations are on whether or not the military would support them. I think they'll conclude it will be better to take the L on this one and revert to undercutting Trump 2 at levels that would make "The Resistance" of Trump 1 blush. If they regain control of the house in 26 he'll be impeached for the crime of breathing. The Washington Post will have another Proton mail account for leakers. The Vindman/Ciamaerlla/Clinesmith types will come out in droves. Trump will have to actually be the nightmare they think he is and be absolutely brutal. JD will be a great media frontman for that. He'll need da Kayleigh/Sarah type press secretary, too. Damn. I am thread sliding. I tend to agree with you on all points here if the numbers look as bad for the dems as they should. If they can bump a few key areas 2020 style, they’ll try it. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 11:11:11 AM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: The data is a mess. There are some pollsters putting out analysis where they say that Trump may win the popular vote but lose the swing states...which would be incredibly unlikely. In general based on everything I've seen, most polls are reporting the race within the margin of error in the swing states.
Past polling efforts that under-count Trump's support especially among voters that aren't high propensity voters understated Trump's support in prior elections on an average of 5-7 points (depending on poll and state). I believe we'll see Trump underestimated by at least 3 points in this cycle, most likely 5 or more. Which would mean he's comfortably ahead beyond the margin of fraud. There are some voters who are only making up their minds now in the closing days of the campaign. In 2016 they broke against Hillary in the last few days. In 2020, they broke against Biden, but not enough to overcome his advantage in early/mail-in voting. There are signs in PA, for example, that Harris is collapsing now. With weeks left until voting day. Hence the aforeposted Casey ad where he's outright saying "I'm an independent!" in an shameless effort to run away from Harris and keep his job. I do not think it will work. But that shows you how desperate things are getting. If it's that desperate in PA, it's going to be similarly uncomfortable in Wisconsin and Michigan. I was just speaking with a gentleman today who is a police officer north of Detroit. He says he thinks Trump will win based on what he's seeing on the ground there. "Nobody has Harris signs. The Trump signs are practically billboards. Things are different this time." |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 11:13:22 AM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74novaman: Part of the reason IMO we are all seeing more yard signs is an effort to make the cheat seem more realistic. LBJ cheated, Franken cheated, Biden cheated. They're going to have to cheat their balls off this time but they're going to try. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 12:16:44 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bad2006z71: Idonbelieveit.jpg I need to get off my ass and vote today. I'm going to do it at lunch time. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bad2006z71: Originally Posted By John_Wayne777: Virginia:
Idonbelieveit.jpg I need to get off my ass and vote today. I'm going to do it at lunch time. I don't know. Something smells different this cycle. In NOVA, the various asian communities are pulling hard for Hung Cao. I see signs for him in all the shops and restaurants; had his volunteers approach me at the Eden Center (the little Saigon for the area) and when I was out in Annandale (the little Seoul for the area) this weekend. I don't recall this much political activity from that sector since I've been in the area. Pretty sure those voters will also pull the lever for Trump. I'm also seeing more Trump volunteers in the area, and more importantly, they're getting positive engagement and not the direct hostility of years past. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 12:21:23 PM EST
[#29]
Just got done voting. Machine said 5500ish top number and 32,000ish lifetime. I assume that means 32,000 people have voted so far?
Looks like my county went 71.07% trump to 27% Biden, 1.64% to some dipshit named Jorgensen in 2020 with a vote total of 29,805 votes. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 12:22:38 PM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mbg0001: I don't know. Something smells different this cycle. In NOVA, the various asian communities are pulling hard for Hung Cao. I see signs for him in all the shops and restaurants; had his volunteers approach me at the Eden Center (the little Saigon for the area) and when I was out in Annandale (the little Seoul for the area) this weekend. I don't recall this much political activity from that sector since I've been in the area. Pretty sure those voters will also pull the lever for Trump. I'm also seeing more Trump volunteers in the area, and more importantly, they're getting positive engagement and not the direct hostility of years past. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mbg0001: Originally Posted By bad2006z71: Originally Posted By John_Wayne777: Virginia:
Idonbelieveit.jpg I need to get off my ass and vote today. I'm going to do it at lunch time. I don't know. Something smells different this cycle. In NOVA, the various asian communities are pulling hard for Hung Cao. I see signs for him in all the shops and restaurants; had his volunteers approach me at the Eden Center (the little Saigon for the area) and when I was out in Annandale (the little Seoul for the area) this weekend. I don't recall this much political activity from that sector since I've been in the area. Pretty sure those voters will also pull the lever for Trump. I'm also seeing more Trump volunteers in the area, and more importantly, they're getting positive engagement and not the direct hostility of years past. I think generally people realize they had more money in their pockets or their dollar went farther under T$ than Biden/Harris. Whether they can get past Orange Man Bad is another thing. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 12:34:23 PM EST
[#31]
 Trump Will Win The POPULAR VOTE, He Has A 100% Chance To Win |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 12:37:07 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryThat's a very generous map. Not sure I believe or agree with it, but would be nice.
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Posted: 10/21/2024 12:38:12 PM EST
[#33]
Todays no toss up map has all coming down to Wisconsin
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Posted: 10/21/2024 2:56:29 PM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By APPARITION: I would love to see Minnesota go Trump. If you take my street for example there are 6 Harris signs before you get to our house which we had two Trump signs up before one got stolen so now we have 3, big yard. We've had many people stop and say they like our signs but they are unwilling to put one out, cause libs are nuts. One guy riding his bike by with his little girl said "finally a house with some common sense" I've worn a MAGA hat (not the red look at me one) in Minneapolis and received compliments. I've got positive compliments everywhere with it. But I'll still be shocked if the state that found boxes of votes for Franken doesn't go blue. I think Minnesota might be too far for Trump to win just based on the demographics. But I think he has an excellent chance in Wisconsin and an ever increasing chance in Michigan. I think he's already won PA. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 2:59:39 PM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: I think Minnesota might be too far for Trump to win just based on the demographics. But I think he has an excellent chance in Wisconsin and an ever increasing chance in Michigan. I think he's already won PA. Can he win w/o NV or NC? Wasn't looking good on recent polls in those 2 states. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 3:00:11 PM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: Michigan will not have results ready on election night. So hopefully Trump doesn’t even need Michigan to win. I’m not looking forward to a long drawn out fight involving recounts and lawsuits to determine the winner. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: Originally Posted By macman37: Ground truth in MI (worth what you paid for it, nothing): I am getting so much political junk mail in MI right now… if it was a foregone conclusion in favor of Harris it would be unnecessary. Fingers crossed. Michigan will not have results ready on election night. So hopefully Trump doesn’t even need Michigan to win. I’m not looking forward to a long drawn out fight involving recounts and lawsuits to determine the winner. I know our democrat overladies will fight it tooth and nail but I do hope it’s decisive. BTW (addendum to the post you quoted): just in the last few days there’s been a marked uptick in online and TV ads for and against Harris. I take that as another small ray of hope… if this was truly a Harris stronghold she wouldn’t have to drop the money here while Trump “wastes” his money on a foregone conclusion. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 4:27:52 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bdy83: Can he win w/o NV or NC? Wasn't looking good on recent polls in those 2 states. Yes. It's unlikely he loses NC. Of those two, NV is the more likely to escape...but I think the demographic and economic trends driving my predictions means he will perform very well in NV as well. Even the culinary union there...one of the major sources of democrat votes...said that their members are supporting Trump. |
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AZ, USA
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Posted: 10/21/2024 4:35:03 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Callahan: My $.02 as a Wisconsin resident. I have never seen so many political mailers, nor heard as many ads, or received more calls/texts then I have so far this election cycle. It’s absolutely insane the amount of money that is being spent here in Wisconsin. Saturdays mail alone had 9 political flyers. Same here in Arizona. The texting is off-the-charts. |
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MD, USA
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Posted: 10/21/2024 4:46:26 PM EST
[#39]
I just have a feeling, the SS Harris has struck a berg bigger than the one that sank the Titanic.
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Posted: 10/21/2024 4:49:19 PM EST
[#40]
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USA
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Posted: 10/21/2024 5:01:30 PM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By brownbomber: Same here in Arizona. The texting is off-the-charts. I don't even have AZ residency or area code, but since I've been here for a while my phone has been getting pinged with a campaign text every morning. I've never seen campaigns be this annoying. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 5:42:00 PM EST
[#42]
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Posted: 10/21/2024 5:50:11 PM EST
[#43]
Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong.
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Posted: 10/21/2024 6:09:17 PM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong. Indeed. As I said from the jump in this thread, I think Trump takes PA and at least one of the other "blue wall" states, either Wisconsin or Michigan. As it's gone on I think he takes both. |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 7:43:36 PM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: Latest “no toss ups” polling map https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/128204/IMG_2617_png-3355258.JPG Oof according to who? what data? |
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Posted: 10/21/2024 8:00:11 PM EST
[Last Edit: StevenH]
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bdy83: according to who? what data? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bdy83: Originally Posted By StevenH: Latest “no toss ups” polling map https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/128204/IMG_2617_png-3355258.JPG Oof according to who? what data? https://www.270towin.com/maps/harris-trump-polling-no-tossups Updates three times daily |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 7:33:46 AM EST
[Last Edit: John_Wayne777]
[#47]
This would go along with the movement in Michigan. Right now there appears to be movement nationally. It's not a massive movement, but my best assessment of where we're at right now is that we're not looking at an even race nationally anymore. Trump is ahead by a couple of points nationally. Given the demographics of how this is working, it's virtually impossible for him to be ahead nationally and lose the EC vote.
This isn't like a democrat where they get hugely lopsided wins in CA and NY and lose the EC. It's going to mean he wins most if not all the swing states and cruises to an easy victory. All of this is based on Trump's support being under-counted in polling. If by some luck or miracle the pollsters are all dead the fuck on...which they haven't been in decades...then the race is very close. But assuming their margins are the same as they were in 2016 and 2020 Trump would out-perform his polling and land comfortably ahead in the popular vote, well beyond any capability for mail-ins and various shenanigans to accomplish anything. And that would be visible fairly early on election night. It would also mean he likely has coat tails and will bring most of the senate and house races home. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 7:39:44 AM EST
[#48]
If you're looking for decent betting odds, the AZ senate race is one of the last available bets out there where you can get almost 5:1 odds on the Republican winning. You can lay down relatively little money for a significant payout with those odds, especially on predictit. There's no way Lake's chances of winning are only 22% with the numbers we're seeing from Arizona and nationally. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 9:35:56 AM EST
[#49]
PA republicans need to go vote! |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 10:08:48 AM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: Unlikely to flip the states in question in this cycle, but notable in terms of the general trend and momentum in the country, some voter registration numbers from NY and CA:
A red tsunami would be awesome. |
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