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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:14:42 AM EDT
[#1]
Huh
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:16:44 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: What are the wraps for? Basically a sales video for the Mortar System.  2B11 and 2S12A 120 mm mortar |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:16:53 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RUM: Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RUM: Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? I don't take it like that. I can easily imagine myself feeling the same way. "This should be fun," tells me it's tongue in cheek. I had a chance to drive a car during a port call to Perth, Australia (right side wheel and stick, driving in left lane). It is a very awkward experience, at first, but I was surprised by how quickly I got the hang of it. I'm sure they are grateful to have them. |
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AL, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:20:24 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small At least he can shoot out the window with his dominant hand (assuming he's right handed). Drive by! |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:21:50 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Walleyeguy24: Based on maps, it looks like Crimea has a bridge to Russia in the east. I don't understand why Russia needs the seaports in Southern Ukraine. Sevastopol should have a warm deep water port. Unless the bridge from Crimea to Russia is some 2 lane wooden piece of shit, I don't understand why those other ports would be so critical. For the costs of this war they could have built a hell of a nice bridge, pipelines, water/sewer, rails, etc. It looks like a pretty nice bridge. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:21:55 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: The only strategic point of interest the US had in Ukraine was keeping Russia from having it, and then later this was shifted to turning Ukraine into a meat grinder for Russia. That later objective has been achieved. Pre and post invasion, the US had/has little if any economic, cultural, or military association with Ukraine. Its a pretty useless country for the US; had Russia not taken Crimea in 2014 it would hold similar US interest to Romania or North Macedonia. Huh. We were there training them for 6 years. It is why they are beating the russians with inferior numbers. That and all the equipment we have supplied. So we have had an interest there, and if Ukraine were allowed to develop properly, they could be the power house economic country of Europe. They have potential as a great trading partner to anyone with more than 3 brain cells. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:23:40 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Haub]
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: It looks like a pretty nice bridge. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By Walleyeguy24: Based on maps, it looks like Crimea has a bridge to Russia in the east. I don't understand why Russia needs the seaports in Southern Ukraine. Sevastopol should have a warm deep water port. Unless the bridge from Crimea to Russia is some 2 lane wooden piece of shit, I don't understand why those other ports would be so critical. For the costs of this war they could have built a hell of a nice bridge, pipelines, water/sewer, rails, etc. It looks like a pretty nice bridge. It'd be a shame it if were to become non-bridge like. 
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:23:46 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
 What are they tying on to the shell? |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:24:13 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: It looks like a pretty nice bridge. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By Walleyeguy24: Based on maps, it looks like Crimea has a bridge to Russia in the east. I don't understand why Russia needs the seaports in Southern Ukraine. Sevastopol should have a warm deep water port. Unless the bridge from Crimea to Russia is some 2 lane wooden piece of shit, I don't understand why those other ports would be so critical. For the costs of this war they could have built a hell of a nice bridge, pipelines, water/sewer, rails, etc. It looks like a pretty nice bridge. Satellite confirms. So all this talk of a land bridge is BS. They just want to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, Russia already has access with Crimea. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:24:31 AM EDT
[#10]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:24:47 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Chokey]
[#11]
https://www.wsj.com/articles/roman-abramovich-and-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-suffer-symptoms-of-suspected-poisoning-11648480493 Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian Peace Negotiators Suffer Symptoms of Suspected Poisoning The Russian oligarch and others developed symptoms they blamed on hard-liners in Moscow who they say want to sabotage talks to end the war By Yaroslav Trofimov and Max Colchester Mar. 28, 2022 11:14 am ET Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian peace negotiators suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning after a meeting in Kyiv earlier this month, people familiar with the matter said. Following the meeting in the Ukrainian capital, Mr. Abramovich, who has shuttled among Moscow, Lviv and other negotiating venues, as well as at least two senior members of the Ukrainian team developed symptoms that included red eyes, constant and painful tearing, and peeling skin on their faces and hands, the people said. They blamed the suspected attack on hard-liners in Moscow who they said wanted to sabotage talks to end the war. A person close to Mr. Abramovich said it wasn’t clear who had targeted the group. Mr. Abramovich and the Ukrainian negotiators, who include Crimean Tatar lawmaker Rustem Umerov, have since improved and their lives aren’t in danger, the people said. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who has met with Mr. Abramovich, wasn’t affected, they said. Mr. Zelensky’s spokesman said he had no information about any suspected poisoning. Western experts who looked into the incident said it was hard to determine whether the symptoms were caused by a chemical or biological agent or by some sort of electromagnetic-radiation attack, according to the people familiar. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:25:06 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: What are they tying on to the shell? Powder charges, the Russian’s do it backwards, ours come with the charges on and we remove them. Theirs come without them and you added, that is a horrible idea. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:25:53 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: He got chosen in 1999-2000...which wouldnt have happened had the US/EU had an army of economists and political advisors in Russia from 1991-1999 working to turn them into a capitalist democracy in exchange for massive investment and economic integration. You seem to think the russians would have welcomed that. It never would have happened. |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:26:15 AM EDT
[#14]
Biden Administration is pushing for Ukraine to make a deal with Russia.
That deal would likely involve Ukraine seceding the eastern sliver of the Donbass including Mariupol and recognizing the sovereignty of those separatist regions. It would also more likely involve Ukraine pledging not to join NATO (although there could be a sunset on that pledge). Frankly, I think that's where this situation is heading anyways. The only question is how many people need to die before it gets there. However, a cease fire and negotiated peace does NOT serve the best interests of the USA in the long term, because ideally the Russians would be bleed white for a number of months more. I think though that the Biden Administration sees the writing on the wall. We and the rest of the world will have serious agricultural issues this year if the Russian sanctions are kept in place. The Democrats will also be forced to drill for domestic oil and natural gas if the Russian sanctions are kept in place. Food and gas shortages would be catastrophic for the Democrats in the midterms and even in 2024 if the Ukraine conflict stretches out into 2023, which it very well might. This disappointing and unfortunate fiasco though has strengthened the GOP's political position. The Democrats 11 seat majority in the House and the 1 seat majority in the Senate is absolutely certain to be lost in the midterms. If the GOP has a solid united message of hammering the Biden Administration on Gas and Food costs they may even be able to get a super majority in the Senate. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:27:22 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Haub: Translation via Google Lens on phone https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51966712336_d0103df0c6_k.jpg Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Haub: Originally Posted By sq40: Anyone translate this? Anonymous leaked it. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/008331E4-4711-4552-9543-C2BB6E1D3CA6_jpe-2329167.JPG Translation via Google Lens on phone https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51966712336_d0103df0c6_k.jpg I had no idea you could do that. Incredible. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:27:42 AM EDT
[#16]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:28:15 AM EDT
[#17]
Russia did not need Sevastopol at all. The pseudo-expert “Russia needs a warm water port” statement is the mark of someone oblivious to geography.
Putin dumped a huge amount of money into Novorossiysk because of the expectation that the lease on Sebastopol would run out. Just look at a map: what makes more sense as a port: the one that already exists and has a railhead or the one that requires a bridge to reach. Regarding the ridiculous “Putin is just getting what he wanted in eastern Ukraine,this was the plan all along” line. This is so patently ridiculous that it’s not worth even discussing other than “the master plan was to lose 20,000 troops and 2000 vehicles to gain an obliterated city”? Sure. This is why the US was telling Zelensky to leave… |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:29:20 AM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:30:09 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Stretchman: They had that about a month ago. Then, they fired up the time machine, brought down the oligarchy, or should we say bourgeois, and sent the proletariat to die on the fields of Ukraine pursuing an invisible Nazi which they think they're liberating Ukraine from. Dude, those people are about as sane as the milkshake protestors who think that cats are actually the reincarnated Hitler. Sleepy Joe finally blurts out in front of the whole world what we're all really thinking, and his own people try to walk it back. Face it, they've gone insane. They trashed their own economy, imprisoned their own people, and are sending thousands more to the meat grinder in order to get back to the glory days of the USSR? The simple truth is that Putin has lost his mind. They had it all, and freedom, and their oil business was booming. All that stands to be destroyed, aling with a lot of other countries that were only too happy to do business with them, and would never have let Americans call the shots there. This entire situation defies logic to the extreme. It's not rational. In their present state a war will not be sustainable. In our present state, due to the shutdown of our oil and gas production, we are not far behind. Mostly because we've been listening to known tards who think they know better. We're going to end up blowing the entire planet to smithereens and accomplish nothing. No, we aren't. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:32:03 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Powder charges, the Russian’s do it backwards, ours come with the charges on and we remove them. Theirs come without them and you added, that is a horrible idea. Try to do this in the rain or in freezing cold weather. 
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:32:40 AM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:33:08 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RUM: Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RUM: Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? I think he was making a self deprecating joke about an American having to drive a right hand drive stick shift. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:34:00 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: The sanctions didn't because they needed the trigger of the invasion, but the international response beforehand was overwhelming and surprisingly unified. Most of the sanctions were laid out before the invasion, in the hope that they would be a deterrent. Putin knew what he was going to face in terms of sanctions and support for Ukraine. He knew his exports would come to a screeching halt. He may not have known how badly his military would perform, but he knew he was facing an economic catastrophe. Even if he had crushed Ukraine, or installed a puppet, the response would have been the same. I believe that he would have taken a way out if one had been available. Now he's fucked, with no way to put the genie back in the bottle, no conventional military credibility, no way to save face, and no way to save the Russian economy. That may lead to the very thing that the west fears most. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By outofbattery: Originally Posted By rca2222: I disagree about the invasion being a foregone conclusion. You and I have debated this before, hundreds of pages ago, so there's no point in doing so again. That's an interesting take on Mariupol. Consider that it could also be getting hammered because their forces have more control in the surrounding area vs. their situation near Kiev. It's also a symbolic point of victory (at least partly) in an otherwise failed operation. Nothing you have said was persuasive enough for me to do anything but dismiss it as nonsense,that isn't a debate. Every single pretext Russia has given is manufactured around the premise that it was going to be a quick and easy victory. This had as much to do with water flow to Crimea as Nazis and bio labs. If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion. Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility.  You'd have been hard pressed to even find someone in GD who thought the Ukrainians would last more than a week or two. Military strategists, the Pentagon, everybody thought Russia would walk all over Ukraine. The international reaction didn't materialize until days after the invasion. The sanctions didn't because they needed the trigger of the invasion, but the international response beforehand was overwhelming and surprisingly unified. Most of the sanctions were laid out before the invasion, in the hope that they would be a deterrent. Putin knew what he was going to face in terms of sanctions and support for Ukraine. He knew his exports would come to a screeching halt. He may not have known how badly his military would perform, but he knew he was facing an economic catastrophe. Even if he had crushed Ukraine, or installed a puppet, the response would have been the same. I believe that he would have taken a way out if one had been available. Now he's fucked, with no way to put the genie back in the bottle, no conventional military credibility, no way to save face, and no way to save the Russian economy. That may lead to the very thing that the west fears most. Okay, I see what you're saying. I don't think any way out that would've been satisfactory for Putin would be something that a free and sovereign country would or should be willing to accept, however. Opinions will vary on that, of course, but I have little tolerance for bullies. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:34:55 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: If I was in that guy's position, we'd all die. There's no way I'd be able to operate that vehicle proficiently enough to keep up from being killed by the Russians.  Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By RattleCanAR: Originally Posted By RUM: Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? He is joking about the challenges as an American and RHD. Nothing more to it. This. RHD and stick is a little awkward at first. I kept knocking my knuckles on the driver's door when I intended to shift the first time I drove one like that. Combined with all of the roundabouts much hilarity ensued. If I was in that guy's position, we'd all die. There's no way I'd be able to operate that vehicle proficiently enough to keep up from being killed by the Russians. I've driven stick cars all my life. I'm pretty sure I could find a way to go from 5th to 2nd and scatter the trans all over the road. Like most, I took his comment as your typical dry sense of military humor... |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:36:26 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
Mmmmm targets |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:39:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Dracster]
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: Mmmmm targets Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Mmmmm targets I figured they'd be needing those back home. Oh yeah, and.....ESCALATION!!!!!! 
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:41:01 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: I had no idea you could do that. Incredible. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By Haub: Originally Posted By sq40: Anyone translate this? Anonymous leaked it. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/008331E4-4711-4552-9543-C2BB6E1D3CA6_jpe-2329167.JPG Translation via Google Lens on phone https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51966712336_d0103df0c6_k.jpg I had no idea you could do that. Incredible. Its been around for years. Great for reading menus and signs in foreign countries. Download the Google Translate app and hit the camera button. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:41:04 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
Just like I've said here for months. The only reason for the invasion is that Putin wants all of Ukraine. If he would ever agree to anything, it would be to buy time for another major attack and new plans to subvert the Ukrainian government. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:42:30 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery:
Rafa (@Rac501) March 28, 2022 |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:42:59 AM EDT
[Last Edit: R0N]
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cobradriver: I've driven stick cars all my life. I'm pretty sure I could find a way to go from 5th to 2nd and scatter the trans all over the road. Like most, I took his comment as your typical dry sense of military humor... All the cars I had on Oki were standards and It takes a few minute to get use to it, but once you do it’s fine. It takes longer to get use to driving on the wrong side of the road. |
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MO, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:43:38 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Foolish_Mortal: It's like a cute oligarch pillow fight. Be fun to give em boxcutters and chain their feet together. Survivor gets a round in the nugget |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:44:12 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: There is no imaginable condition short of installation of another Russian puppet that would have stopped an invasion,you and many others just need to stop with this fantasy. Do you understand why it was so important to destroy Mariupol? It wasn’t because it was a den of Nazis oppressing the Russian speaking population,it was because Ukraine had invested in it the past 8 years and it looking like this was an embarrassment to Putin https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/6BE95344-AEC7-4D3F-AC23-037E3A2B1C51_jpe-2329024.JPG It is the same as why he loathes us: disgust at seeing what people who aren’t under Russia’s thumb can accomplish. Russia is a bully jock who detests that the poor kid who worked hard in school became successful. It’s simply that there has to be a period where the kid who worked hard in school is mocked for having a couple shitty jobs before moving forward while the bully gets to live in past meathead glory. It really is this simple to understand Russian actions: Putin detests seeing democracy,rule of law and economic and social freedom because he could not rule with these things. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: Originally Posted By rca2222: Your three points are the exact ones I made before the invasion, though I added the restoration of water flow through the Crimean canal. I'm convinced that if they had been offered before that he wouldn't have invaded. That is NOT to say that I think he should get those things, or that Ukraine should agree to such demands. Sanctions are going to be a political problem for the west regardless. If Russian wells, pipelines, and refineries are permanently damaged (see Zeihan), the oil shock will be politically untenable. If images of starving people hit the news because Russian grain isn't arriving, yet another politically untenable situation will develop. Like it or not, Russia is an important world supplier of both commodities. There is no imaginable condition short of installation of another Russian puppet that would have stopped an invasion,you and many others just need to stop with this fantasy. Do you understand why it was so important to destroy Mariupol? It wasn’t because it was a den of Nazis oppressing the Russian speaking population,it was because Ukraine had invested in it the past 8 years and it looking like this was an embarrassment to Putin https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/6BE95344-AEC7-4D3F-AC23-037E3A2B1C51_jpe-2329024.JPG It is the same as why he loathes us: disgust at seeing what people who aren’t under Russia’s thumb can accomplish. Russia is a bully jock who detests that the poor kid who worked hard in school became successful. It’s simply that there has to be a period where the kid who worked hard in school is mocked for having a couple shitty jobs before moving forward while the bully gets to live in past meathead glory. It really is this simple to understand Russian actions: Putin detests seeing democracy,rule of law and economic and social freedom because he could not rule with these things. It's pretty obvious and the reason putin does all he can to destabilize every country around russia. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:44:58 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/roman-abramovich-and-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-suffer-symptoms-of-suspected-poisoning-11648480493 Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian Peace Negotiators Suffer Symptoms of Suspected Poisoning The Russian oligarch and others developed symptoms they blamed on hard-liners in Moscow who they say want to sabotage talks to end the war By Yaroslav Trofimov and Max Colchester Mar. 28, 2022 11:14 am ET Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian peace negotiators suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning after a meeting in Kyiv earlier this month, people familiar with the matter said. Following the meeting in the Ukrainian capital, Mr. Abramovich, who has shuttled among Moscow, Lviv and other negotiating venues, as well as at least two senior members of the Ukrainian team developed symptoms that included red eyes, constant and painful tearing, and peeling skin on their faces and hands, the people said. They blamed the suspected attack on hard-liners in Moscow who they said wanted to sabotage talks to end the war. A person close to Mr. Abramovich said it wasn’t clear who had targeted the group. Mr. Abramovich and the Ukrainian negotiators, who include Crimean Tatar lawmaker Rustem Umerov, have since improved and their lives aren’t in danger, the people said. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who has met with Mr. Abramovich, wasn’t affected, they said. Mr. Zelensky’s spokesman said he had no information about any suspected poisoning. Western experts who looked into the incident said it was hard to determine whether the symptoms were caused by a chemical or biological agent or by some sort of electromagnetic-radiation attack, according to the people familiar. Surprised it didn't happen sooner, and I will not be surprised if any of the oligarchs wind up dead. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:45:24 AM EDT
[#34]
United Kingdom's MOD comments/map for 3-27. I haven't looked at it recently since not much was changing from day-to-day map-wise, but they've started marking contested areas. Another observation is these UK-MOD comments are on their FB page (IDC what you think about FB
) and seem to always differ a bit from the prepared comments on other platforms. I could guess why, but no point derailing the thread anymore than usual. 
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:46:05 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: You think a decade of free money can fundamentally change the nature of Russians and Russia? How naive. He appears to have little grasp of the reality of the situation, and the attitudes of the people involved. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:47:28 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RUM: Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? He has probably never seen a right hand drive car before. I don't think he is complaining, just showing something novel to him. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:48:31 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: No, we aren't. Waiting to see if this escalates like every bad 80s apocalypse movie ever predicted. Meanwhile, in a post apocalyptic world... |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:49:13 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AaronR: the reason RUS was provoked to invade... China is first in line (just as they are now being allowed to do in AFG) I doubt it. They can have afg. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:49:53 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BerettaGuy: Thanks. McCain pushed for the first Javelins to be transferred as well as changing the State Department restrictions on weapons transfers. The 2014 revolution freed Ukraine from Putin's Plan A to enslave it (Plan B is what we are seeing now). The revolution did not cause any "mess" - Putin's Russia caused the mess. Truth. |
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OR, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:52:03 AM EDT
[#40]
Putin's useful German idiots
BERLIN Germany is no stranger to the wrong side of history. That's why it shouldn't surprise anyone that Berlin spent the past 16 years with its feet firmly planted on the wrong side of the divide over how to handle Russia. Less predictable was the speed with which Germany abandoned its stance toward Moscow in recent weeks by halting the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, sending arms to Ukraine, embracing sanctions against Russia, and even announcing it would start pumping substantial sums into its own army. In other words, it agreed almost overnight to do everything the U.S. and other allies had been prodding it to do for years. Berlin even ginned up a hashtag-ready motto for the shift: Zeitenwende, i.e. the dawn of a new era. Weeks later, it's become clear that what German leaders are really trying to say is: 'Let's move on.' On that score, the Germans have had about as much luck as the Russian army in Ukraine. That's because Germany didn't merely "misjudge Putin," as Angela Merkel's longtime foreign policy adviser, Christoph Heusgen, the new chairman of the Munich Security Conference, said last week. Germany's stubborn insistence on engaging with the Russian leader in the face of his sustained aggression (a catalog of misdeeds ranging from the invasion of Georgia to assassinations of enemies abroad and war crimes in Syria) was nothing short of a catastrophic blunder, one that will earn Merkel a place in the pantheon of political naivet alongside Neville Chamberlain. Slowly but surely, it's begun to dawn on Germans that Merkel's soft-shoe approach to Russia which reached its zenith with the 2015 decision to green light the Nord Stream 2 pipeline despite Russia's annexation of Crimea and its role in the separatist war in eastern Ukraine didn't just open the door for Putin to go further, it effectively encouraged him to do so. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not just a repudiation of Merkel's chancellorship, however, but of a whole generation of German politicians from across the spectrum blinded by nostalgia for Ostpolitik and Wandel durch Handel, the 1970s-era dtente policies championed by Chancellor Willy Brandt that according to German legend led to the end of the Cold War. Germany's collective responsibility is why turning the page is easier said than done. There is no Churchill-like figure in German politics who has been warning for years of the perils of trusting Putin. While Merkel deserves most of the blame for falling into the Russian leader's trap, the truth is that Germany's entire political class is guilty. As Merkel's finance minister and vice chancellor, the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose Social Democrats were the driving force behind the Nord Stream pipelines, championed the notion that the best way to deal with Putin was through never-ending "dialogue." Jens Pltner, currently Scholz's national security adviser, was one of the primary architects of that policy in his years as a senior diplomat in Germany's foreign office, where he served as chief of staff to then-Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (a Social Democrat who is now German president) and most recently as the ministry's political director. Even after Putin amassed tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine's border in December, Pltner advised Scholz to stick with Nord Stream 2 and publicly repeat the fiction that it was little more than a "commercial project." Pltner's old boss Steinmeier, who accused NATO in 2016 of "saber rattling and warmongering" for holding a military exercise on the alliance's eastern flank, argued almost until the first shots were fired on Ukrainians that Germany should use energy as a way to build bridges with Russia. These days, Steinmeier, who as president is meant to serve as Germany's moral authority, occupies himself by organizing "freedom and peace" concerts with Russian and Ukrainian musicians. (One of the events took place in early March in Dresden as bombs rained down on Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city.) Over the weekend, Andrij Melnyk, Ukraine's ambassador to Germany, declared he would boycott Steinmeier's latest event, saying Ukrainians had no time for "grand Russian culture" while Moscow was murdering innocent civilians. Though less responsible than either Merkel's Christian Democrats or the Social Democrats for the policies that led up to Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the smaller parties in Germany's ruling coalition the liberal Free Democrats and the Greens haven't exactly covered themselves in glory either. While the Greens opposed Nord Stream 2, they did so as much for ecological reasons as out of solidarity with Ukraine. More significant was their steadfast opposition to arms deliveries to Kyiv, which only changed after the fighting started. The Free Democrats were divided over what to do about Nord Stream 2, with many in the party, including deputy party leader Wolfgang Kubicki, supporting more engagement with Russia. According to Melnyk, Free Democrat leader Christian Lindner, who is also Germany's finance minister, told him on the day the war started that there would be no point in Berlin sending weapons to Ukraine or shutting Russia out of SWIFT, the international payment system, because his country only "has a few hours" of sovereignty. Skepticism over Ukraine's prospects, not to mention concern over the consequences of going too hard on Russia, was shared by many in the main opposition party, the Christian Democrats (CDU). Just weeks before Russia's invasion, CDU leader Friedrich Merz warned that suspending Russia from SWIFT could trigger an "atomic bomb in the capital markets." 'We were all wrong' Having been wrong about Russia and Putin every step of the way, Germany's politicians have resorted to the "who knew?" card. "I was wrong, we were all wrong," Wolfgang Schuble, the minence grise of German politics and longtime CDU finance minister, told the Welt am Sonntag over the weekend. What Schuble and his colleagues leave out, however, is that Germany's allies had been warning it for years that it was underestimating Putin. When confronted with that reality, the Germans don't know quite how to react. After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reminded German MPs in a speech to the Bundestag this month that the business Germany did with Russia helped finance the war against his country and attacked them for paying "worthless" lip service to the Holocaust, they gave him a standing ovation and then promptly returned to regular business, which included wishing two MPs a happy birthday. During the Cold War, the term "useful idiot" became a label for moderates in the West who fell victim to the communists' credulous arguments. From Germany's veto of NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 to its pursuit of gas deals with Moscow to its resistance to send arms to Kyiv the country's leaders have served as Putin's useful idiots. All the while, the so-called Russlandversteher, the smug Russian sympathizers who populate the country's political establishment, rejected criticism of their course, insisting they knew better while (literally) laughing in Washington's face. No one's laughing anymore. Even as allies welcome Berlin's Zeitenwende, they aren't fooled by its foxhole conversion. Ukraine, which was pillaged by Germany during World War II, by the end of which it had lost more than 15 percent of its population, certainly won't forgive and forget. Germany won't have any real credibility within the transatlantic alliance either (no matter how many billions it commits to spending on defense) until there's an honest reckoning with the history of the Merkel-Putin years. As Germany knows all too well, even if it's possible to hide from history for a time, there's no escaping it. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:52:32 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion. Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility. What way out should he be given? Sovereign territory of another nation as a reward for attacking them and then leaving? Fuck me. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:54:40 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SheltiePimp: It's 3 hours old. This is a directive to; A) Force Russian oil and gas companies to "only" accept payments for contracts that were settled years ago in rubles. B) Force Russian oil and gas companies to stop all transfers unless payments are made in rubles within 3 days. That means he will cut off all gas supplies in 3 days. All of it, unless they pay on Russian terms. Poland, Hungry, Italy, Germany, all of them face a cessation of gas supplies by the weekend. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SheltiePimp: Originally Posted By kncook: Originally Posted By SheltiePimp: Prepare to switch to rubles for natural gas exports by March 31, Vladimir Putin tells Gazprom and Russia's central bank Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the country's biggest gas company and central bank to prepare to start taking rubles for natural gas payments from "unfriendly" countries, saying they should outline their plans by March 31. Putin blindsided traders in the natural gas market last week by announcing Russia would make countries deemed hostile pay for the product in rubles. Russia accounts for around 45% of EU gas imports, with pipeline exports to Europe normally paid for in euros. The President appeared keen to push ahead with the plan on Monday. He ordered Gazprom, the central bank and the government to prepare reports outlining how it will make the switch by Thursday, March 31, according to state news agency Tass. It was not immediately clear whether the switch itself would take place Thursday. Analysts have said Putin is trying to shore up the Russian currency and to make life more complicated for Western countries that have sanctioned Moscow over its war against Ukraine. "At face value this appears to be an attempt to prop up the ruble by compelling gas buyers to buy the previously free-falling currency in order to pay," Rystad Energy senior analyst Vinicius Romano said last week. "What is clear however, is that this has added another element of uncertainty to the already chaotic European gas market by complicating gas purchases that many countries have been reluctant to cut." The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, accused Russia of blackmail last week and said the move would be a clear breach of contract. The boss of Italian energy company Eni, Claudio Descalzi, said at a panel in Dubai on Monday that the company would not be paying for gas in rubles. European natural gas prices have soared due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and pushed higher last week when Putin announced the payment plan. Dutch TTF gas futures, Europe's benchmark price, were up 4.7% Monday to 106 euros per megawatt hour. However, that was below last week's high of around 127 euros and far lower than a price of more than 300 euros hit earlier this month. The ruble was 4.1% higher against the dollar, with $1 changing hands for 98.1 rubles. It has risen relatively sharply since plunging to a low of around 140 rubles to the dollar in early March. --------------------------------------- WWIII, here we come. Everyone already told Russia they aren’t going to pay it as it’s breach of contract. This is several days old. It's 3 hours old. This is a directive to; A) Force Russian oil and gas companies to "only" accept payments for contracts that were settled years ago in rubles. B) Force Russian oil and gas companies to stop all transfers unless payments are made in rubles within 3 days. That means he will cut off all gas supplies in 3 days. All of it, unless they pay on Russian terms. Poland, Hungry, Italy, Germany, all of them face a cessation of gas supplies by the weekend. Actually you're both right. The unofficial announcement is several days old I remember reading about it. And I remember reading Germany saying it was a breach of contract. This, the official announcement, is today. Now, y'all shake on it and play nice. Don't make me come in here again!
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:54:47 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: Okay, I see what you're saying. I don't think any way out that would've been satisfactory for Putin would be something that a free and sovereign country would or should be willing to accept, however. Opinions will vary on that, of course, but I have little tolerance for bullies. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By outofbattery: Originally Posted By rca2222: I disagree about the invasion being a foregone conclusion. You and I have debated this before, hundreds of pages ago, so there's no point in doing so again. That's an interesting take on Mariupol. Consider that it could also be getting hammered because their forces have more control in the surrounding area vs. their situation near Kiev. It's also a symbolic point of victory (at least partly) in an otherwise failed operation. Nothing you have said was persuasive enough for me to do anything but dismiss it as nonsense,that isn't a debate. Every single pretext Russia has given is manufactured around the premise that it was going to be a quick and easy victory. This had as much to do with water flow to Crimea as Nazis and bio labs. If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion. Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility. You'd have been hard pressed to even find someone in GD who thought the Ukrainians would last more than a week or two. Military strategists, the Pentagon, everybody thought Russia would walk all over Ukraine. The international reaction didn't materialize until days after the invasion. The sanctions didn't because they needed the trigger of the invasion, but the international response beforehand was overwhelming and surprisingly unified. Most of the sanctions were laid out before the invasion, in the hope that they would be a deterrent. Putin knew what he was going to face in terms of sanctions and support for Ukraine. He knew his exports would come to a screeching halt. He may not have known how badly his military would perform, but he knew he was facing an economic catastrophe. Even if he had crushed Ukraine, or installed a puppet, the response would have been the same. I believe that he would have taken a way out if one had been available. Now he's fucked, with no way to put the genie back in the bottle, no conventional military credibility, no way to save face, and no way to save the Russian economy. That may lead to the very thing that the west fears most. Okay, I see what you're saying. I don't think any way out that would've been satisfactory for Putin would be something that a free and sovereign country would or should be willing to accept, however. Opinions will vary on that, of course, but I have little tolerance for bullies. I agree completely. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:56:50 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
I hope the Azeris rape them raw.  |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:57:28 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: What way out should he be given? Sovereign territory of another nation as a reward for attacking them and then leaving? Fuck me. Ukraine just needs to agree to disarm so that the country that just invaded them despite assuring them they wouldn't won't invade them in future under a new assurance. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:59:19 AM EDT
[#46]
I’m curious about how quickly the sanctions could start affecting Russia’s nuclear arsenal. I know it’s expensive to maintain these weapons, but how long before they degrade to the point of not being viable. I assume the Russians likely have kept funding up for these weapons, but at some point they should have priorities where they have to use the money elsewhere.
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OR, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:03:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: PurpleOtter]
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlabamaFan64: I'm curious about how quickly the sanctions could start affecting Russia's nuclear arsenal. I know it's expensive to maintain these weapons, but how long before they degrade to the point of not being viable. I assume the Russians likely have kept funding up for these weapons, but at some point they should have priorities where they have to use the money elsewhere. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:06:32 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: What way out should he be given? Sovereign territory of another nation as a reward for attacking them and then leaving? Fuck me. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By rca2222: If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion. Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility. What way out should he be given? Sovereign territory of another nation as a reward for attacking them and then leaving? Fuck me. I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. |
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AL, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:06:58 PM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 12:07:23 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: I'm not saying that Ukraine "should have" given Russia anything, and I stated that clearly in the original post. What I am saying is that Russia would probably not have invaded had their been concessions, such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Those places will never be reunited with Ukraine, and in Crimea it would seem that the locals don't want to be. It isn't fair, or just, but it's the reality. Those disputed borders are also what prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Russia wanted all of Ukraine. Not part. |
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