User Panel
ISW assessment for October 15th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-15 |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By sq40: It really is fascinating to watch in real time. The most interesting part to me is how quickly ad-hock technologies are coming into play from all areas. You have civilian drones dropping grenades, and then three months later a commercial drone with six mortars and professional targeting shows up. Now you have quad copters with ATGMs. The soldiers with the best xbox controller skills will become some of the most lethal. View Quote But it blows all my sci-fi fantasy movies away. I now look at stormtroopers in "Imperial Walkers" and idiots running around blasting away at each other as silly now. Apparently autonomous, super fast, man-seeking mini drones will be 1000X deadlier than any Terminator. |
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Originally Posted By LurkerII: Can someone explain this to me as if I was a 5 year old? Not familiar with Soviet tank models and stuff. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By LurkerII: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfIvUbrXwAEluCz?format=jpg&name=large Can someone explain this to me as if I was a 5 year old? Not familiar with Soviet tank models and stuff. lol, In the first part during WW2, the tanks improved in design, but in the current war the models are starting as the most advanced T-14 Armata, and they keep getting worse, downgrading to the ancient T-62's we're seeing on the battlefield after 8 months of fighting in Ukraine. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By LurkerII: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfIvUbrXwAEluCz?format=jpg&name=large Can someone explain this to me as if I was a 5 year old? Not familiar with Soviet tank models and stuff. View Quote In a nutshell, in WWii Soviet tank design was Evolving. That is as time passed in the war the tank designs got better and better. In the Ukraine/Russia war the tanks that the Russians are fielding are going from fairly modern models to older and older models taken out of long term storage. As the newer and better tanks are destroyed they keep deploying older and older models like the T62 on the end which was current around 1962. The running joke is sooner or later they are going to be raiding museum's for a T34 which was their current tank in WWII. |
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View Quote I mean they did just have some sort of Russian-Asian gathering the other day. Wonder if this has something to do with that? |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: lol, In the first part during WW2, the tanks improved in design, but in the current war the models are starting as the most advanced T-14 Armata, and they keep getting worse, downgrading to the ancient T-62's we're seeing on the battlefield after 8 months of fighting in Ukraine. View Quote Ok, thanks. I figured something like that but I could not tell by looking, don't know the current models etc... on the bottom row. |
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: So, got home after a long day at work and started making the rounds on the YTers I follow. One I follow is Chrissie Mayr. Some may know who she is and most probably not. She's a stand up comic that has a YouTube show that focuses pretty much on pop culture (she's on some other channels I follow more closely so gave her a sub). Seems she had Dr. Sebastian Gorka on her podcast and had a segment on Ukraine with him. I hadn't heard him comment on current events yet and given it was on Chrissie's show gave it a watch, figuring I may hear some "Conservative" nonsense. Instead I was extremely surprised to hear what Gorka said given he's firmly in the, "Trump camp", "alt right", not sure what you'd call it except "that group" where we seem to see a lot of the posters here that oppose Ukraine... Sorry, don't care about Ukraine but feel the need to tell us incessantly how much they don't care and it's really none of our business. Anyway... Like I said, given the circles he's associated with, I was surprised to find myself in such agreement with him. I'd say I agree with about 90% of his take except for his opinion on Westernizing their weapon systems. And he is right on his point near the end, with this admin in charge, we absolutely do need to keep a close eye on where they try to funnel actual money (not like the simpletons here that conflate value of hardware with pallets of cash). That said, I think focusing so closely on the potential for funneling money via support for Ukraine is a poor target to focus such scrutiny on, and may even be a purposeful distraction while they pull things like the Treasury funneling $11 billion dollars to "green initiatives" over the next 2 years. That stands a far better opportunity for Lefties to launder money and get kickbacks, IMHO. You can fully and enthusiastically support Ukraine, and be concerned about the utilization of the financial aid we are sending and prefer to see actual hardware sent instead. Anyway, here's the segment with Gorka. Hopefully more in "that group" pay attention to what he's saying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lTHAgZHkLw View Quote Interesting. I'm glad he seems to see the light about Ukraine. I disagree about Ukraine not getting modern Western equipment. They are not illiterate goat herders. UA has Supreme Court justices, PHD's and all sorts of engineers fighting and probably better educated on average than the typical US recruits. |
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Originally Posted By Capta: Allowing the Russians another crack from Belarusian territory, that I can see. Joining in the party? Huge downside, little upside. I don’t see it, unless Putin has literally executed a silent coup in Belarus and has Lukashenko hostage. Could be trying to provoke a response from Ukraine. View Quote They are coming from Belarus again. RU is too desperate for men and equipment to send them to Belarus as a distraction. Belarus is doing a "covert" mobilization. I'm 50:50 on actual Belarussian troops entering Ukraine or just getting ready in case Poland (or Ukraine) gets sick of their shit and come calling for Lukashenko. I see this as the last option for Putin: They know they lost and their only chance for some partial success is to put pressure on Kiev and get them to negotiate or withdraw enough troops from the East so Russia can take the rest of the 4 annexed regions. |
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Originally Posted By sq40: If you go by the cold math where lives lost by a nuclear exchange, even a limited one, versus capitulation to Russia and stopping more killing, then Musk’s thought make sense. He just doesn’t get the idea of morality, duty to defend your home, to counter genocide, and the futility of pacification of an aggressor state. This tells me that he may be the man to get us to Mars… but he isn’t the man to build a new society and world there. View Quote 100% |
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: They are coming from Belarus again. RU is too desperate for men and equipment to send them to Belarus as a distraction. Belarus is doing a "covert" mobilization. I'm 50:50 on actual Belarussian troops entering Ukraine or just getting ready in case Poland (or Ukraine) gets sick of their shit and come calling for Lukashenko. I see this as the last option for Putin: They know they lost and their only chance for some partial success is to put pressure on Kiev and get them to negotiate or withdraw enough troops from the East so Russia can take the rest of the 4 annexed regions. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Capta: Allowing the Russians another crack from Belarusian territory, that I can see. Joining in the party? Huge downside, little upside. I don’t see it, unless Putin has literally executed a silent coup in Belarus and has Lukashenko hostage. Could be trying to provoke a response from Ukraine. They are coming from Belarus again. RU is too desperate for men and equipment to send them to Belarus as a distraction. Belarus is doing a "covert" mobilization. I'm 50:50 on actual Belarussian troops entering Ukraine or just getting ready in case Poland (or Ukraine) gets sick of their shit and come calling for Lukashenko. I see this as the last option for Putin: They know they lost and their only chance for some partial success is to put pressure on Kiev and get them to negotiate or withdraw enough troops from the East so Russia can take the rest of the 4 annexed regions. I’ll throw in an outside the box scenario. Rumor is that Belarus is undergoing (or about to undergo) some sort of crypto-mobilization. What if Lukashenko is playing the double game and his crypto mobilization is meant to secure his regime against the RUSSIANS when he turns coat? |
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YNWA
Show Me Yo Shanks http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1852554_A_GD_Knife_Thread____EDC__Rotation__yes__carry_rotations_are_a_real_thing__or_Edged_Erotica__.html |
Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: So, got home after a long day at work and started making the rounds on the YTers I follow. One I follow is Chrissie Mayr. Some may know who she is and most probably not. She's a stand up comic that has a YouTube show that focuses pretty much on pop culture (she's on some other channels I follow more closely so gave her a sub). Seems she had Dr. Sebastian Gorka on her podcast and had a segment on Ukraine with him. I hadn't heard him comment on current events yet and given it was on Chrissie's show gave it a watch, figuring I may hear some "Conservative" nonsense. Instead I was extremely surprised to hear what Gorka said given he's firmly in the, "Trump camp", "alt right", not sure what you'd call it except "that group" where we seem to see a lot of the posters here that oppose Ukraine... Sorry, don't care about Ukraine but feel the need to tell us incessantly how much they don't care and it's really none of our business. Anyway... Like I said, given the circles he's associated with, I was surprised to find myself in such agreement with him. I'd say I agree with about 90% of his take except for his opinion on Westernizing their weapon systems. And he is right on his point near the end, with this admin in charge, we absolutely do need to keep a close eye on where they try to funnel actual money (not like the simpletons here that conflate value of hardware with pallets of cash). That said, I think focusing so closely on the potential for funneling money via support for Ukraine is a poor target to focus such scrutiny on, and may even be a purposeful distraction while they pull things like the Treasury funneling $11 billion dollars to "green initiatives" over the next 2 years. That stands a far better opportunity for Lefties to launder money and get kickbacks, IMHO. You can fully and enthusiastically support Ukraine, and be concerned about the utilization of the financial aid we are sending and prefer to see actual hardware sent instead. Anyway, here's the segment with Gorka. Hopefully more in "that group" pay attention to what he's saying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lTHAgZHkLw View Quote That was cool, thanks for sharing. Gorka was right about some things (we should have helped Poland send their MiG-29s and back-filled them with F-16s or whatever), and wrong about others (AFAIK the 152mm ComBloc gun tubes are wearing slap out, and I don't know who has the means to produce those or matching shells in the quantity that Ukraine needs them, and we have plenty of smart people within industry and NATO who can tell us that stuff). To his overall point that the US money is primarily spent on US companies, and he calls this a "con game"...yeah dude, that's exactly how it works, under both R and D administrations. And no one noticed or raised objections until now? Get fucking real. R's/the Right generally used to celebrate "made in America" and supporting US industry...but when it helps Ukraine, now suddenly we don't? Does not compute. |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfJar63WIAI4tLw?format=jpg&name=small https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfJar69XkAEH2g0?format=jpg&name=small View Quote Damn! |
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"I do believe that some gun laws are needed and yes, I am a Republican" ~ tc556guy - NRA Member
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By sq40: If you go by the cold math where lives lost by a nuclear exchange, even a limited one, versus capitulation to Russia and stopping more killing, then Musk’s thought make sense. He just doesn’t get the idea of morality, duty to defend your home, to counter genocide, and the futility of pacification of an aggressor state. This tells me that he may be the man to get us to Mars… but he isn’t the man to build a new society and world there. 100% I completely disagree. Capitulation to save lives won’t save lives. It will simply push the event down the road 2-5 years and mean that the fight happens on Polish and German soil with tens of millions dead. We can either pay the toll now or pay a far worse toll later. Anyone who votes for appeasement is voting for mass murder. |
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Originally Posted By dillydilly: I mean they did just have some sort of Russian-Asian gathering the other day. Wonder if this has something to do with that? View Quote Tactical nukes on the UA in the East with simultaneous attacks on Kiev from Belarus? It IS the only possible option with even 10% chance of Russia "winning". |
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: So, got home after a long day at work and started making the rounds on the YTers I follow. One I follow is Chrissie Mayr. Some may know who she is and most probably not. She's a stand up comic that has a YouTube show that focuses pretty much on pop culture (she's on some other channels I follow more closely so gave her a sub). Seems she had Dr. Sebastian Gorka on her podcast and had a segment on Ukraine with him. I hadn't heard him comment on current events yet and given it was on Chrissie's show gave it a watch, figuring I may hear some "Conservative" nonsense. Instead I was extremely surprised to hear what Gorka said given he's firmly in the, "Trump camp", "alt right", not sure what you'd call it except "that group" where we seem to see a lot of the posters here that oppose Ukraine... Sorry, don't care about Ukraine but feel the need to tell us incessantly how much they don't care and it's really none of our business. Anyway... Like I said, given the circles he's associated with, I was surprised to find myself in such agreement with him. I'd say I agree with about 90% of his take except for his opinion on Westernizing their weapon systems. And he is right on his point near the end, with this admin in charge, we absolutely do need to keep a close eye on where they try to funnel actual money (not like the simpletons here that conflate value of hardware with pallets of cash). That said, I think focusing so closely on the potential for funneling money via support for Ukraine is a poor target to focus such scrutiny on, and may even be a purposeful distraction while they pull things like the Treasury funneling $11 billion dollars to "green initiatives" over the next 2 years. That stands a far better opportunity for Lefties to launder money and get kickbacks, IMHO. You can fully and enthusiastically support Ukraine, and be concerned about the utilization of the financial aid we are sending and prefer to see actual hardware sent instead. Anyway, here's the segment with Gorka. Hopefully more in "that group" pay attention to what he's saying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lTHAgZHkLw View Quote Oh, and ABSO-FUCKING-LUTELY YES @Ryan_Ruck, agree: "green/global warming" shit has been the D's/the Left's favorite money laundering scheme since at least the 1990s, and the total expenditure dwarfs whatever we have spent so far on Ukraine. At least when the military industrial complex gets some money, they don't also expect me to believe that they can control the fucking weather. That's at least a little more honest about what we're getting for our tax dollars. |
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Him: "throw me a mag, I'm out!" Me: "I just dropped my 3rd dude and I'm still on my first mag#@%#" View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Logcutter: That is not my experience, and I'm glad you weren't in my fire team Him: "throw me a mag, I'm out!" Me: "I just dropped my 3rd dude and I'm still on my first mag#@%#" I laughed |
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Originally Posted By Capta: I’ll throw in an outside the box scenario. Rumor is that Belarus is undergoing (or about to undergo) some sort of crypto-mobilization. What if Lukashenko is playing the double game and his crypto mobilization is meant to secure his regime against the RUSSIANS when he turns coat? View Quote I think there is a chance of this. But I still give a better chance to another attack from Belarus towards Kiev. |
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Putin isn't popping nukes.
The end game is either he dies, or Russia defeats the West and US. And the former is far more likely than the latter. |
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Originally Posted By Capta: I completely disagree. Capitulation to save lives won’t save lives. It will simply push the event down the road 2-5 years and mean that the fight happens on Polish and German soil with tens of millions dead. We can either pay the toll now or pay a far worse toll later. Anyone who votes for appeasement is voting for mass murder. View Quote I think we (mostly all) agree but I doubt Musk sees it this way. I think he is looking at this situation as an engineer would, doing the math etc. He probably knows much less about this conflict, the Russian mentality, and human nature than most of us here. Musk commenting on the war is basically like me yelling advice to the TV while watching football. |
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
Originally Posted By m35ben: Put on your head phones and turn it up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9NrRuueHgs View Quote Well, if you ever needed an illustration about why their tank performance is so shitty from all the drone videos, this perfectly illustrates why: The driver has ONE vision block; he can't hear shit because it sounds like somebody chucked a bucket full of gravel into a running engine; and he is working those tillers AND the throttle AND the gear shifter like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. I also think just looking at that video gave me tetanus. |
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Originally Posted By Capta: I’ll throw in an outside the box scenario. Rumor is that Belarus is undergoing (or about to undergo) some sort of crypto-mobilization. What if Lukashenko is playing the double game and his crypto mobilization is meant to secure his regime against the RUSSIANS when he turns coat? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Capta: Allowing the Russians another crack from Belarusian territory, that I can see. Joining in the party? Huge downside, little upside. I don’t see it, unless Putin has literally executed a silent coup in Belarus and has Lukashenko hostage. Could be trying to provoke a response from Ukraine. They are coming from Belarus again. RU is too desperate for men and equipment to send them to Belarus as a distraction. Belarus is doing a "covert" mobilization. I'm 50:50 on actual Belarussian troops entering Ukraine or just getting ready in case Poland (or Ukraine) gets sick of their shit and come calling for Lukashenko. I see this as the last option for Putin: They know they lost and their only chance for some partial success is to put pressure on Kiev and get them to negotiate or withdraw enough troops from the East so Russia can take the rest of the 4 annexed regions. I’ll throw in an outside the box scenario. Rumor is that Belarus is undergoing (or about to undergo) some sort of crypto-mobilization. What if Lukashenko is playing the double game and his crypto mobilization is meant to secure his regime against the RUSSIANS when he turns coat? I know that you've promoted the idea that Lukashenko is a potential mole/double agent/defector for months, but respectfully, I'm not really buying it. Nothing indicates that he's willing to defect; all the evidence simply indicates that thus far, he hasn't been willing to directly commit troops due to the precarious position he would find himself in if he did. Presently, I feel as though we may have finally reached the point in which Putin has bribed/threatened Lukashenko into directly deploying forces to Ukraine. He might not, as his forces would certainly get slaughtered and he may very well get dragged through the streets Qaddafi style by the Belarusian people, but still, I'd put it at about a 60/40 chance that Russia pushes through Belarus into Ukraine again with Lukashenko's consent. |
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My principles are only those that, before the French Revolution, every well-born person considered sane and normal.
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I think there is a chance of this. But I still give a better chance to another attack from Belarus towards Kiev. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Capta: I’ll throw in an outside the box scenario. Rumor is that Belarus is undergoing (or about to undergo) some sort of crypto-mobilization. What if Lukashenko is playing the double game and his crypto mobilization is meant to secure his regime against the RUSSIANS when he turns coat? I think there is a chance of this. But I still give a better chance to another attack from Belarus towards Kiev. Play out the scenario: Lukashenko calls up reserves through various means while assuring Putin he will eventually do something, while actually delaying. This is consistent with Belarus’ entire war effort. Russian mobilized reserves attack Ukraine from Belarus but Belarus doesn’t join in. Russian supply lines run through Belarus. The second Russian northern front gets bogged down inside Ukraine as expected. Lukashenko turns coat and cuts off supplies to the Russian Kiev group, puts HIS army on the border and says “tough shit, Russkies.” Huge Russian force lost, Lukashenko pays his dues to the west, Putin unable to do anything about it. Just a thought exercise on what Lukashenko would be in position to do. What he intends to do is unknown. |
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: It's a very complex subject... And to be honest, I'm probably not the best person to educate on it. I have, however, spent the better part of 2 decades reading about and studying it. There's lots of authors/researchers out there that have done a far better job laying things out than I. Start with some of the defectors that have published books detailing their life. Ion Mihai Pacepa is a good one off the top of my head. Or read material from those who were involved in the radical left in one way or another at the time it blew up here in America in the 1960s and 1970s, like David Horowitz or Larry Grathwohl. They detail the Soviet connections to the various radical left movements in America. You're talking about an intelligence apparatus that went to such lengths as to build entire American and Western style towns including houses, grocery stores, schools, churches, etc. in isolated locations where their intel agents were fostered in every aspect of American/Western life and culture. Russian language was forbidden and only the language of the nation you were infiltrating was allowed and your accent was drilled out of you. The Americans shows this and it's true to life. You want an example of the Soviets/Russia in religion and the culture of Liberation Theology? How about the Catholic Workers Movement that got its start in 1933? Go look at the "Known Connections" at that link. That's just one example. There's many more on the religion front like the Soviet Islam video I linked. Or how about in race relations? Try the National Council Of La Raza or Black Panther Party (and subsequent NBPP) both of which started in the 1960s. Here's a simple example: Soviet/Russian funding and training -> Weather Underground/Bill Ayers/Bernadine Dohrn -> Barack Obama -> Joe Biden Now dig into the branches off of each and every one of those "stops". There's effects and effects upon effects which ultimately trace back to the Soviet/Russian intel apparatus and the international Marxist/Communist movement. The things you mention them failing at are highly technical and scientific, and frankly things they never were good at which is why they've always had to focus so much on stealing it. But how much skill does it really take to pay off the gambling debt for a defense worker in exchange for a classified document on a fighter aircraft, or an attractive Russian woman to spread her legs for a dorky guy that works in the office of a politician that happens to be on the House Intel Committee, or to use a dead drop or shortwave numbers station/one time pad cipher to relay information, or to funnel money through various contributors to politicians sympathetic to you, or pull strings at a university to get a particular sympathetic/radical teacher in place? At the end of the day, the motivation for most espionage boils down to sex, money, or ideology; none of which require a very high degree of technical/scientific skill to leverage and exploit like all your examples. That's a big reason the Soviets/Russians put so much emphasis on it, knowing they could not ultimately out gun or out tech us. I will grant you that the current day Russian intel apparatus is not as finely a tuned machine as it once was but even a dulled blade can still cause damage and, the seeds sown during the Soviet times are still bearing copious fruit for them, in addition to the current crop they're cultivating now. View Quote Quality post award. 🥇 |
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Originally Posted By GTLandser: Quality post award. 🥇 View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By GTLandser: Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: It's a very complex subject... And to be honest, I'm probably not the best person to educate on it. I have, however, spent the better part of 2 decades reading about and studying it. There's lots of authors/researchers out there that have done a far better job laying things out than I. Start with some of the defectors that have published books detailing their life. Ion Mihai Pacepa is a good one off the top of my head. Or read material from those who were involved in the radical left in one way or another at the time it blew up here in America in the 1960s and 1970s, like David Horowitz or Larry Grathwohl. They detail the Soviet connections to the various radical left movements in America. You're talking about an intelligence apparatus that went to such lengths as to build entire American and Western style towns including houses, grocery stores, schools, churches, etc. in isolated locations where their intel agents were fostered in every aspect of American/Western life and culture. Russian language was forbidden and only the language of the nation you were infiltrating was allowed and your accent was drilled out of you. The Americans shows this and it's true to life. You want an example of the Soviets/Russia in religion and the culture of Liberation Theology? How about the Catholic Workers Movement that got its start in 1933? Go look at the "Known Connections" at that link. That's just one example. There's many more on the religion front like the Soviet Islam video I linked. Or how about in race relations? Try the National Council Of La Raza or Black Panther Party (and subsequent NBPP) both of which started in the 1960s. Here's a simple example: Soviet/Russian funding and training -> Weather Underground/Bill Ayers/Bernadine Dohrn -> Barack Obama -> Joe Biden Now dig into the branches off of each and every one of those "stops". There's effects and effects upon effects which ultimately trace back to the Soviet/Russian intel apparatus and the international Marxist/Communist movement. The things you mention them failing at are highly technical and scientific, and frankly things they never were good at which is why they've always had to focus so much on stealing it. But how much skill does it really take to pay off the gambling debt for a defense worker in exchange for a classified document on a fighter aircraft, or an attractive Russian woman to spread her legs for a dorky guy that works in the office of a politician that happens to be on the House Intel Committee, or to use a dead drop or shortwave numbers station/one time pad cipher to relay information, or to funnel money through various contributors to politicians sympathetic to you, or pull strings at a university to get a particular sympathetic/radical teacher in place? At the end of the day, the motivation for most espionage boils down to sex, money, or ideology; none of which require a very high degree of technical/scientific skill to leverage and exploit like all your examples. That's a big reason the Soviets/Russians put so much emphasis on it, knowing they could not ultimately out gun or out tech us. I will grant you that the current day Russian intel apparatus is not as finely a tuned machine as it once was but even a dulled blade can still cause damage and, the seeds sown during the Soviet times are still bearing copious fruit for them, in addition to the current crop they're cultivating now. Quality post award. 🥇 I do try. Sometimes. |
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Tactical nukes on the UA in the East with simultaneous attacks on Kiev from Belarus? It IS the only possible option with even 10% chance of Russia "winning". View Quote I don’t think they’ll be popping a nuke on land they just “annexed”. I would guess they nuke Kyiv from Belarus and all those soldiers they just deployed to Belarus are to keep a vengeful UA from coming after them. That would be a better explanation imo for why China and other Russian allies telling their citizens to get out. They wouldn’t be in the eastern war zone, they’d be in the cities. |
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.... did you just congratulate OP on not killing people? -phurba
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
On the topic of a potential second push through Belarus, Ukraine needs more small arms, ammo, mags, plates, etc. I think anyone with two brain cells can see that since Russia didn't take Kyiv under much better circumstances (comparatively) back in February and March, they're not even going to get remotely close this time. I think even Putin and the FSB are smart enough to realize that. Thus, as has been mentioned numerous times here, the goal of such an offensive would be to force Ukraine to divert manpower from the east and the south. However, if Ukraine had more of the previously listed shit, they could train and equip the massive amount of volunteers they have who are apparently sitting around twiddling their thumbs due to lack of equipment. That could prevent Ukraine from having to divert manpower from the Donbas and Kherson should the Russians push through Belarus again.
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My principles are only those that, before the French Revolution, every well-born person considered sane and normal.
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: The Russian attack was decent, attacked with overwhelming force. Had the UA positions had proper defense and some AT weapons it would have stalled as soon as that tank blew its top. What I was curious about was what hit those UA guys running away. I didnt see any arty impacts anywhere nearby and have to assume they were getting sprayed by RU gunners from somewhere. View Quote I don't think the Ukrainians were prepared for an assault of that size at all (moderate though it was). Maybe they were TDF, or maybe they were in a thinly held sector. I didn't see any vehicles, any AT weapons, and the defenses were primarily the two bunkers right on the road, and some other rather sad looking dugouts off the road. They didn't even appear to have vehicles of any kind, and their positions didn't have any depth (meaning they had nowhere else behind to run TO). So yeah, considering the Russians had 1 or more tanks and 2 BMPs + dismounts, that went about how I would expect. Without ATGMs, mortars, or artillery to call upon, I also couldn't reasonably expect they would just remain there, in a badly prepared position, taking direct fire from tanks. |
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Has there been any indication that Russia is sending tanks, IFVs, artillery etc into Belarus to stage for an attack? All I've seen is that Russia is sending mobiks to Belarus and Belarus is sending equipment and ammo to Russia. This would imply to me that any attack from Belarusian territory will utilize Belarusian equipment (and maybe some leftover scraps from the "feint"). I'm curious how much they have to spare and how much of it Lukashenko is willing to risk on Ukraine vs maintaining defensive capability against Poland.
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Originally Posted By ludder093: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-military-range-shooting-leaves-193107841.html View Quote That could be partisan activity, or that story could just be a coverup for disgruntled Russian soldiers shooting other soldiers who had been tormenting and hazing them. That sort of thing happened a fair bit in Afghanistan and Chechnya. Historically, Russian hazing of conscripts was really fucking bad, and I doubt it's gotten a whole lot better in recent years. The way it used to work was privates on the end of their conscription (nicknamed "Grandpas") would be given free reign to haze the ever living shit out of new conscripts, in ways that would utterly shock most westerners. Ultimately, that resulted in some instances of mass fratricide. IIRC, this was actually one reason why the Russians cut conscription down from two years to one year. |
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My principles are only those that, before the French Revolution, every well-born person considered sane and normal.
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Originally Posted By Zhukov: I interrupt this thread to bring you a very important message: BAMA SUX!!! I now return you to your originally scheduled debate... View Quote Yeah that was an awful game... My wife yelled Go Big Orange, she's from Tennessee, at the county fair while we were surrounded by rabid Bama fans. I was like, then I was . There was some serious grumbling from folks at the fair tonight when we lost. |
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
Originally Posted By Dynomite: Has there been any indication that Russia is sending tanks, IFVs, artillery etc into Belarus to stage for an attack? All I've seen is that Russia is sending mobiks to Belarus and Belarus is sending equipment and ammo to Russia. This would imply to me that any attack from Belarusian territory will utilize Belarusian equipment (and maybe some leftover scraps from the "feint"). I'm curious how much they have to spare and how much of it Lukashenko is willing to risk on Ukraine vs maintaining defensive capability against Poland. View Quote IMO, Lukashenko needs that equipment for protection from his own population more than he does from Poland. This especially true given the extreme degree of losses the Russians have taken since February, and the fact that eventually, fighters from the Belarusian Legion are going to start trickling home. |
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My principles are only those that, before the French Revolution, every well-born person considered sane and normal.
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Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: I know that you've promoted the idea that Lukashenko is a potential mole/double agent/defector for months, but respectfully, I'm not really buying it. Nothing indicates that he's willing to defect; all the evidence simply indicates that thus far, he hasn't been willing to directly commit troops due to the precarious position he would find himself in if he did. Presently, I feel as though we may have finally reached the point in which Putin has bribed/threatened Lukashenko into directly deploying forces to Ukraine. He might not, as his forces would certainly get slaughtered and he may very well get dragged through the streets Qaddafi style by the Belarusian people, but still, I'd put it at about a 60/40 chance that Russia pushes through Belarus into Ukraine again with Lukashenko's consent. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Capta: Allowing the Russians another crack from Belarusian territory, that I can see. Joining in the party? Huge downside, little upside. I don’t see it, unless Putin has literally executed a silent coup in Belarus and has Lukashenko hostage. Could be trying to provoke a response from Ukraine. They are coming from Belarus again. RU is too desperate for men and equipment to send them to Belarus as a distraction. Belarus is doing a "covert" mobilization. I'm 50:50 on actual Belarussian troops entering Ukraine or just getting ready in case Poland (or Ukraine) gets sick of their shit and come calling for Lukashenko. I see this as the last option for Putin: They know they lost and their only chance for some partial success is to put pressure on Kiev and get them to negotiate or withdraw enough troops from the East so Russia can take the rest of the 4 annexed regions. I’ll throw in an outside the box scenario. Rumor is that Belarus is undergoing (or about to undergo) some sort of crypto-mobilization. What if Lukashenko is playing the double game and his crypto mobilization is meant to secure his regime against the RUSSIANS when he turns coat? I know that you've promoted the idea that Lukashenko is a potential mole/double agent/defector for months, but respectfully, I'm not really buying it. Nothing indicates that he's willing to defect; all the evidence simply indicates that thus far, he hasn't been willing to directly commit troops due to the precarious position he would find himself in if he did. Presently, I feel as though we may have finally reached the point in which Putin has bribed/threatened Lukashenko into directly deploying forces to Ukraine. He might not, as his forces would certainly get slaughtered and he may very well get dragged through the streets Qaddafi style by the Belarusian people, but still, I'd put it at about a 60/40 chance that Russia pushes through Belarus into Ukraine again with Lukashenko's consent. We don’t know his intentions and I’ve never said that. What I’ve tried to do is to look at Lukashenko’s actions and positioning from the perspective of “what is this consistent with? What is possible?” Not “what is the convenient propaganda view?” The conventional wisdom here and elsewhere is that Lukashenko is a buffoon and a toady. I believe the facts say otherwise. He didn’t invade (on 2/24) when there was every incentive to do so and little apparent reason not to. This is almost certainly not by chance. He either had access to better information than Putin or evaluated the information he had much better than Putin. In the very early days when stuff started going brown for Russia he didn't throw reserves in when it would have been reasonable to do so, indicating again he was actively making intelligent decisions for his interests. And he has kept Belarus mostly out of the war despite what must have been intense pressure from Putin, indicating he isn’t just a puppet. After that, what are his interests? How does he achieve them? What is his endgame? Putin is clearly “playing out the string” hoping to draw 4 cards to a straight flush, or win on a bluff. Lukashenko, I believe, is not “playing out the string.” He has options outside of a Gotterdammerung finale with Putin. So how does he get there? What are his actions consistent with? Could they be consistent with more than one option? Take crypto mobilization. If one doesn’t bother to go beyond the “toady” impression, then mobilization is to help Russia invade Ukraine again. (Which Lukashenko has refused to do for 8 months.). However, factually, mobilization only provides an increased capability to exert policy through force. You plan for capabilities, not intents. Lukashenko will have a larger, somewhat more capable military to be used for an unknown intent. That is what we can factually say. I argue that this capability is equally consistent with the desire to secure his regime against Russia, as it is to invade Ukraine. |
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Originally Posted By weptek911: I don’t know anything about Shahed but that looks like a TV or stage light. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By weptek911: Originally Posted By daemon734: If you knew anything about the Shahed you would know right away this isn't real. I don’t know anything about Shahed but that looks like a TV or stage light. That's what I thought it was. I figured they were using like the old WWI and WWII spot lights. |
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Originally Posted By 4xGM300m: ...is beyond my comprehension. Everything in Russia is way behind the western standards. Technology, they aren't able to built modern cars or planes, exploit their natural ressources, NVDs, fire control system, optics, etc., rockets, missiles, drones, computer systems, computer chips, electrical components, you name it - without the help of the west. Everything is 15 - 25 years behind. They buy commercial chips from AliExpress for their cruise missiles. The RU military is a mess, the whole country is corrupt to the bone, the living standards and the life expectancy are significantly lower than in the West. Wherever you look, you can see incompetence on every level. But the guys from the KGB, respectively from the successor organizations are able to infiltrate and compromise intelligence agencies, governments, elections, NGOs, churches, everything of political value in the West at will? I fucking don't buy it. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: ... involvement of the KGB in ... ...is beyond my comprehension. Everything in Russia is way behind the western standards. Technology, they aren't able to built modern cars or planes, exploit their natural ressources, NVDs, fire control system, optics, etc., rockets, missiles, drones, computer systems, computer chips, electrical components, you name it - without the help of the west. Everything is 15 - 25 years behind. They buy commercial chips from AliExpress for their cruise missiles. The RU military is a mess, the whole country is corrupt to the bone, the living standards and the life expectancy are significantly lower than in the West. Wherever you look, you can see incompetence on every level. But the guys from the KGB, respectively from the successor organizations are able to infiltrate and compromise intelligence agencies, governments, elections, NGOs, churches, everything of political value in the West at will? I fucking don't buy it. There is a pecking order amongst the directorates w/in each of their special services. Some are exceptional at humint. World class. They also have some very capable cyber/sigint capabilities, even some that operate outside the traditional power structures (“guns for hire”) that provides a layer of flexibility and deniability beyond what most in the west would sanction/tolerate. There are several bear-related advanced persistent threats that operate and have a fingerprint/signature that is known and tracked. They are not all slobs. They also are known to work with APTs typically aligned to other bad news regimes like China, second best Korea, and Iran. |
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Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: They need to get the nod from Alexi Joneskov first. I'm just curious how Taiwanese conservative paper Epoch Times will handle the invasion since they have leaned pro-Russia quite a bit this year... View Quote |
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Originally Posted By Capta: We don’t know his intentions and I’ve never said that. What I’ve tried to do is to look at Lukashenko’s actions and positioning from the perspective of “what is this consistent with? What is possible?” Not “what is the convenient propaganda view?” The conventional wisdom here and elsewhere is that Lukashenko is a buffoon and a toady. I believe the facts say otherwise. He didn’t invade (on 2/24) when there was every incentive to do so and little apparent reason not to. This is almost certainly not by chance. He either had access to better information than Putin or evaluated the information he had much better than Putin. In the very early days when stuff started going brown for Russia he didn't throw reserves in when it would have been reasonable to do so, indicating again he was actively making intelligent decisions for his interests. And he has kept Belarus mostly out of the war despite what must have been intense pressure from Putin, indicating he isn’t just a puppet. After that, what are his interests? How does he achieve them? What is his endgame? Putin is clearly “playing out the string” hoping to draw 4 cards to a straight flush, or win on a bluff. Lukashenko, I believe, is not “playing out the string.” He has options outside of a Gotterdammerung finale with Putin. So how does he get there? What are his actions consistent with? Could they be consistent with more than one option? Take crypto mobilization. If one doesn’t bother to go beyond the “toady” impression, then mobilization is to help Russia invade Ukraine again. (Which Lukashenko has refused to do for 8 months.). However, factually, mobilization only provides an increased capability to exert policy through force. You plan for capabilities, not intents. Lukashenko will have a larger, somewhat more capable military to be used for an unknown intent. That is what we can factually say. I argue that this capability is equally consistent with the desire to secure his regime against Russia, as it is to invade Ukraine. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Capta: Allowing the Russians another crack from Belarusian territory, that I can see. Joining in the party? Huge downside, little upside. I don’t see it, unless Putin has literally executed a silent coup in Belarus and has Lukashenko hostage. Could be trying to provoke a response from Ukraine. They are coming from Belarus again. RU is too desperate for men and equipment to send them to Belarus as a distraction. Belarus is doing a "covert" mobilization. I'm 50:50 on actual Belarussian troops entering Ukraine or just getting ready in case Poland (or Ukraine) gets sick of their shit and come calling for Lukashenko. I see this as the last option for Putin: They know they lost and their only chance for some partial success is to put pressure on Kiev and get them to negotiate or withdraw enough troops from the East so Russia can take the rest of the 4 annexed regions. I’ll throw in an outside the box scenario. Rumor is that Belarus is undergoing (or about to undergo) some sort of crypto-mobilization. What if Lukashenko is playing the double game and his crypto mobilization is meant to secure his regime against the RUSSIANS when he turns coat? I know that you've promoted the idea that Lukashenko is a potential mole/double agent/defector for months, but respectfully, I'm not really buying it. Nothing indicates that he's willing to defect; all the evidence simply indicates that thus far, he hasn't been willing to directly commit troops due to the precarious position he would find himself in if he did. Presently, I feel as though we may have finally reached the point in which Putin has bribed/threatened Lukashenko into directly deploying forces to Ukraine. He might not, as his forces would certainly get slaughtered and he may very well get dragged through the streets Qaddafi style by the Belarusian people, but still, I'd put it at about a 60/40 chance that Russia pushes through Belarus into Ukraine again with Lukashenko's consent. We don’t know his intentions and I’ve never said that. What I’ve tried to do is to look at Lukashenko’s actions and positioning from the perspective of “what is this consistent with? What is possible?” Not “what is the convenient propaganda view?” The conventional wisdom here and elsewhere is that Lukashenko is a buffoon and a toady. I believe the facts say otherwise. He didn’t invade (on 2/24) when there was every incentive to do so and little apparent reason not to. This is almost certainly not by chance. He either had access to better information than Putin or evaluated the information he had much better than Putin. In the very early days when stuff started going brown for Russia he didn't throw reserves in when it would have been reasonable to do so, indicating again he was actively making intelligent decisions for his interests. And he has kept Belarus mostly out of the war despite what must have been intense pressure from Putin, indicating he isn’t just a puppet. After that, what are his interests? How does he achieve them? What is his endgame? Putin is clearly “playing out the string” hoping to draw 4 cards to a straight flush, or win on a bluff. Lukashenko, I believe, is not “playing out the string.” He has options outside of a Gotterdammerung finale with Putin. So how does he get there? What are his actions consistent with? Could they be consistent with more than one option? Take crypto mobilization. If one doesn’t bother to go beyond the “toady” impression, then mobilization is to help Russia invade Ukraine again. (Which Lukashenko has refused to do for 8 months.). However, factually, mobilization only provides an increased capability to exert policy through force. You plan for capabilities, not intents. Lukashenko will have a larger, somewhat more capable military to be used for an unknown intent. That is what we can factually say. I argue that this capability is equally consistent with the desire to secure his regime against Russia, as it is to invade Ukraine. Very good post. You raise a lot of valid points, and I'll have to give a lot of them some thought. |
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My principles are only those that, before the French Revolution, every well-born person considered sane and normal.
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I personally think Lukashenko is smarter or at the very least, more cunning, than what he appears to be. I have Belarusian friends and acquaintances. You never know what they are up to. Always keep stuff hush hush lol.
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My principles are only those that, before the French Revolution, every well-born person considered sane and normal.
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Originally Posted By dillydilly: I personally think Lukashenko is smarter or at the very least, more cunning, than what he appears to be. I have Belarusian friends and acquaintances. You never know what they are up to. Always keep stuff hush hush lol. View Quote I definitely agree that he's played his cards well thus far. I doubt that he's going to outright defect to the west or militarily act against Putin, but at the same time, I'm also skeptical that we'll see Belarusian troops enter Ukraine. |
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My principles are only those that, before the French Revolution, every well-born person considered sane and normal.
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Comparison of tactics. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfIuTDMWIAAGGox?format=jpg&name=large Thread here.
View Quote Like! Highly underrated post. |
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Originally Posted By TheLurker:
May be bs, but based on events, more likely official guidance to new orcs. Edit. My bad, this is from September so likely already posted. View Quote Well, a video was posted a few pages ago showing a battlefield execution, so... War crimes. |
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Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: I definitely agree that he's played his cards well thus far. I doubt that he's going to outright defect to the west or militarily act against Putin, but at the same time, I'm also skeptical that we'll see Belarusian troops enter Ukraine. View Quote Yup, that’s my feeling too. There’s a reason why thus far, he has not declared war on Ukraine. He’s not dumb. People on his home turf don’t like him. He’d be foolish to get them involved by deploying his troops. |
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Originally Posted By ludder093: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-army-annihilated-west-putin-104802460.html View Quote I posted a similar story a day or 2 ago. I'm glad people in the west are starting to use their grown-up voices when talking about Russia. Absolute bluntness is necessary when dealing with them. |
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SIC SEMPER TYRANNIS
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