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Link Posted: 10/16/2022 5:38:37 PM EST
[#1]
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Originally Posted By Circuits:

Odessa Ass Bandit has qualified on SCUBA. Dolphin poon is extra points.

Russian sailors and longshoremen should be wary.
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Link Posted: 10/16/2022 5:39:40 PM EST
[#2]
Massive Ukranian Casualties! Russia Claims ... Actually Not - Ukraine War Map Update 16/Oct/2022
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 5:44:51 PM EST
[#3]
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Originally Posted By DK-Prof:


During the 1917 Third Battle of Ypres (Passchendaele) took place over about 100 days and reasonable estimates of casualties seem to be about 700,000.  So, the rate was about 7,000 casualties per day.    

During 1916, the Battle of the Somme took place over 140 days, with close to a million casualties.  So, a very similar rate - about 7,000 thousand casualties per day.

... and remember, those were specific campaigns in a small part of the overall theatre, and there was lots of dying going on at the same time on other battlefields.

WW1 must have been an absolutely terrifying meatgrinder.  



View Quote



The flower of Europe...wasted.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 5:47:40 PM EST
[#4]
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

So, 10K dead on the Ukrainian side.
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:











So, 10K dead on the Ukrainian side.

Probably a lot more than that.  I think the ratio refers to the current relative loss rate.
We wont know until after the war but it wouldn't surprise me if the UA’s losses are 40-50K.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 5:49:32 PM EST
[#5]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
That video was sent to me earlier. I cannot figure out what hit the windshield.
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Looks like it either punched through the windshield and into the top of the dash and maybe the driver, or the windshield spalled and that hit the dash.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 5:49:58 PM EST
[#6]
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Originally Posted By M-1975:



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The UA’s daily Russian loss estimate needs to add +30 in honor of their co-belligerents.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 5:50:56 PM EST
[Last Edit: j_hooker] [#7]
It finally hit me.  Russians live, eat, breath via Machismo… nothing to do with reality, just a fog of Russian machismo, especially towards their neighbors
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 5:53:59 PM EST
[#8]
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Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:


I would assume they would be calling up retired pilots to fly them, but it is russia.

They could also be looking at this as a short term solution to replace worn out planes or a mid to long term solution for new pilots that will be graduating flight school.

Just spit ballin because as I said, it is russia.
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Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:
Originally Posted By stone-age:
Originally Posted By m35ben:
Does Russia have some secret stash of well trained pilots?


What makes you believe russia has fresh planes but not pilots for them?
New planes sounds like bad news to me.


I would assume they would be calling up retired pilots to fly them, but it is russia.

They could also be looking at this as a short term solution to replace worn out planes or a mid to long term solution for new pilots that will be graduating flight school.

Just spit ballin because as I said, it is russia.


Or they’re trying to rotate out worn-out airframes and build up a spare parts supply so they can keep a reasonable number of planes available at all times.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 5:58:21 PM EST
[#9]
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Originally Posted By Capta:


Or they’re trying to rotate out worn-out airframes and build up a spare parts supply so they can keep a reasonable number of planes available at all times.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:
Originally Posted By stone-age:
Originally Posted By m35ben:
Does Russia have some secret stash of well trained pilots?


What makes you believe russia has fresh planes but not pilots for them?
New planes sounds like bad news to me.


I would assume they would be calling up retired pilots to fly them, but it is russia.

They could also be looking at this as a short term solution to replace worn out planes or a mid to long term solution for new pilots that will be graduating flight school.

Just spit ballin because as I said, it is russia.


Or they’re trying to rotate out worn-out airframes and build up a spare parts supply so they can keep a reasonable number of planes available at all times.

Could be.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:05:28 PM EST
[#10]
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Originally Posted By iggy1337:


Future Ukrainian farmers will scare the kids around the campfire with the 'ghost tank driven by the headless orc' tale
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Nah, Ukrainian musicians will sing   The “Ivan the Headless Tank Gunner”  song. The Ukrainian music scene is lit!
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:05:28 PM EST
[#11]
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Originally Posted By stone-age:


Am I recalling correctly that those hypersonic missiles are very difficult to shoot down because they are moving so fast?
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Originally Posted By stone-age:
Originally Posted By HIPPO:


Am I recalling correctly that those hypersonic missiles are very difficult to shoot down because they are moving so fast?

Its a big nothing burger.  They’re a fast 500-pound bomb and they don't have very many of them.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:07:29 PM EST
[#12]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
That video was sent to me earlier. I cannot figure out what hit the windshield.
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
That video was sent to me earlier. I cannot figure out what hit the windshield.


Looks like a bullet. Watch the dash
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:10:10 PM EST
[#13]
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Originally Posted By 7empest:



Spiral out. Keep going.
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Originally Posted By 7empest:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


Wish granted.




Spiral out. Keep going.


The crop circle was already there before the drone dropped its first present in one of the videos. One of the crew was outside on the hull when he got blasted.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:11:54 PM EST
[#14]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
That video was sent to me earlier. I cannot figure out what hit the windshield.
View Quote


It looked like a bullet to me. It buried itself into the dashboard after it went through the window.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:12:59 PM EST
[#15]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
That video was sent to me earlier. I cannot figure out what hit the windshield.
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
That video was sent to me earlier. I cannot figure out what hit the windshield.

I believe it was a bullet.  It went throuht the windshield, damaged the dash, and either hit his plate or went over his shoulder.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:14:04 PM EST
[Last Edit: Capta] [#16]
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Originally Posted By DOW:



The flower of Europe...wasted.
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Originally Posted By DOW:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:


During the 1917 Third Battle of Ypres (Passchendaele) took place over about 100 days and reasonable estimates of casualties seem to be about 700,000.  So, the rate was about 7,000 casualties per day.    

During 1916, the Battle of the Somme took place over 140 days, with close to a million casualties.  So, a very similar rate - about 7,000 thousand casualties per day.

... and remember, those were specific campaigns in a small part of the overall theatre, and there was lots of dying going on at the same time on other battlefields.

WW1 must have been an absolutely terrifying meatgrinder.  






The flower of Europe...wasted.

Yes, just like Russia is wasting the flower of their youth.  It’s sad.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:16:28 PM EST
[Last Edit: MouseBoy] [#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Capta:

Its a big nothing burger.  They’re a fast 500-pound bomb and they don't have very many of them.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By stone-age:
Originally Posted By HIPPO:


Am I recalling correctly that those hypersonic missiles are very difficult to shoot down because they are moving so fast?

Its a big nothing burger.  They’re a fast 500-pound bomb and they don't have very many of them.



If I recall properly, their hypersonic missiles don't require much explosive,  Most of the destruction is kinetic energy.  No way they are getting 500lb bombs to Mach 5+
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:17:13 PM EST
[#18]
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:25:41 PM EST
[#19]
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:26:22 PM EST
[#20]
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:30:30 PM EST
[#21]
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Originally Posted By CharlieR:



It happened outside of Sperne,

48.8126009365159, 38.26028569722111


link

Didn't look that impressive, you ask me.

One tank in SBF.  Two BMPs drop off about three pax.  A squad of UA run like hell except for three WIA, 1-2 look to be executed.

Any sort of AT capability would have crushed this attack, but zero is what they seem to have had.  Looked like a recon in force or probe.  A lot of artillery supporting very little maneuver.

It's modern war.  There are no fair fights.

video


Im not going to lie...this TERRA unit is fascinating at several levels. And these are the best fighting positions Ive seen in this war.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8Byzl5kelc
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I hope I didnt sound like I was praising the Russians. Not at all. The attack was by a platoon and should have been destroyed by 1 Jav. and maybe a mine in the right spot. It was barely adequate but once the RU got into the defenses, it was a slaughter.

The RU attacked under arty which was landing close in the beginning of the vid but they pushed through. I think some of those explosions near the BMP's were the UA attempts with PRG's. Anyway, the attack should have been repulsed but once that tank got in and started blasting the positions, it was over. I also think there were a few things happening off camera or just out of view.

I also think the killing of the wounded (or maybe anchor shots of the dead) UA guys was tragic but not in any way unexpected, even by more civilized adversaries in the heat of combat. Once the killing starts bad things happen.

Another note, the Russians doing the trench clearing and killing the survivors do not seem "nimble" and looked and moved like older dudes. Maybe they were just tired but they did not move like 20yo 11B's. I hope they all died in the next engagement.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:32:35 PM EST
[Last Edit: SoCalExile] [#22]
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Originally Posted By DK-Prof:


During the 1917 Third Battle of Ypres (Passchendaele) took place over about 100 days and reasonable estimates of casualties seem to be about 700,000.  So, the rate was about 7,000 casualties per day.    

During 1916, the Battle of the Somme took place over 140 days, with close to a million casualties.  So, a very similar rate - about 7,000 thousand casualties per day.

... and remember, those were specific campaigns in a small part of the overall theatre, and there was lots of dying going on at the same time on other battlefields.

WW1 must have been an absolutely terrifying meatgrinder.  



View Quote

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kiev_(1941)


Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:38:46 PM EST
[#23]
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:39:57 PM EST
[#24]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


Wish granted.

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Must be Billy Preston driving.  

Will it go round in circles?

Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:46:47 PM EST
[#25]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Yes, just like Russia is wasting the flower of their youth.  It’s sad.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By DOW:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:


During the 1917 Third Battle of Ypres (Passchendaele) took place over about 100 days and reasonable estimates of casualties seem to be about 700,000.  So, the rate was about 7,000 casualties per day.    

During 1916, the Battle of the Somme took place over 140 days, with close to a million casualties.  So, a very similar rate - about 7,000 thousand casualties per day.

... and remember, those were specific campaigns in a small part of the overall theatre, and there was lots of dying going on at the same time on other battlefields.

WW1 must have been an absolutely terrifying meatgrinder.  






The flower of Europe...wasted.

Yes, just like Russia is wasting the flower of their youth.  It’s sad.



Concur...although it seems "flower" is relative here. Not too many Siegfried Sassoons or Wilfred Owens apparent in Russia's recent drafts.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:46:56 PM EST
[#26]
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Originally Posted By GTLandser:


I wouldn't describe it in quite such awe-struck terms. It wasn't Carentan or anything like that.

The Russians had 1-2 tanks and 2 BMPs, the Ukrainians got tired of taking tank rounds to the face, and so decided they would leave since they didn't have any means to respond. The 3-4 guys who were wounded or elected to remain behind for whatever reason were killed or captured, when the 6 or so Russians decided the clear the trench line (really more of a wadi/arroyo/drainage that had some fighting positions dug here and there).

I couldn't even tell if the few Ukrainians remaining were armed at that point (they may have been hurt or lost their weapons in the initial tank fire...can't say as I blame them too much if that is so).

The Russians were WELL within ATGM and possibly AT rocket range, and 6 or so dismounts is NOT enough to clear and secure a trench like that (if you want to hold it for any length of time). What stuck out to me is the video matches with what we have all heard, that the Russians don't have enough dismounts to fill out their BTGs.

The only other lesson I might remind anyone about from that video would be...remember that you don't have to be STANDING ON something important in order to control it. In fact sometimes it is better if you are well clear of it, because it tends to draw all kinds of fire.

The Ukrainians for whatever reason had their sandbag bunkers right on the road, and the only other "terrain" I could see was the ditch/wadi nearby, or the road embankment itself. Must have been pretty flat, because the Russians drove right up and started blasting the bunkers and dugouts.

ETA: Dick Winters level of tactical prowess on either side, it was not.
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I didnt mean to over sell the video as an example of a great attack. It highlights what happens when an simple attack is barely better than an inept defense and there is much killing.

I'm sure there are and have been thousands of such attacks in this war that hopefully ended with the first tank flipping it's top and the rest running away. But when one tank gets in, the results are messy. To quote one of my favorite movies..."stay frosty, we cant afford to let even one of those bastards in here".
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:48:05 PM EST
[#27]
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Originally Posted By Birddog15:



Must be Billy Preston driving.  

Will it go round in circles?

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Originally Posted By Birddog15:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


Wish granted.




Must be Billy Preston driving.  

Will it go round in circles?




NASCAR.  Didn't know the Russians were fans.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:48:26 PM EST
[#28]
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Originally Posted By Prime:
"Protests" in Moldova.



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfNpV3WXkAAJ6n9?format=jpg&name=medium
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Moldova needs to link up with Romania or some other neighbor to roll up Transnistria for good. It's not like the force in Transnistria is strong, but Moldova is weak. Roll up Transnistria to save Moldova and free up troops in Ukraine's southern border.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 6:58:30 PM EST
[Last Edit: Birddog15] [#29]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
That video was sent to me earlier. I cannot figure out what hit the windshield.
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
That video was sent to me earlier. I cannot figure out what hit the windshield.



Drunk, lost conscript?


ETA;  Maybe a bullet fired from a long ways off?
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 7:06:05 PM EST
[#30]
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Originally Posted By DOW:
The flower of Europe...wasted.
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I remember one WW2 battle - Hiroshima.
50k DRT
150k in the weeks following.


so, there's some shit to remember
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 7:17:47 PM EST
[#31]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Its a big nothing burger.  They’re a fast 500-pound bomb and they don't have very many of them.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By stone-age:
Originally Posted By HIPPO:


Am I recalling correctly that those hypersonic missiles are very difficult to shoot down because they are moving so fast?

Its a big nothing burger.  They’re a fast 500-pound bomb and they don't have very many of them.


Yup, with minute of football field accuracy.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 7:32:01 PM EST
[#32]
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Originally Posted By Birddog15:



Drunk, lost conscript?


ETA;  Maybe a bullet fired from a long ways off?
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It could be.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 7:36:02 PM EST
[#33]
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Originally Posted By Billy_Ringo:



NASCAR.  Didn't know the Russians were fans.
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From what I've seen I'd compare their driving skills to Billy Martin, not Mark Martin
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 8:11:51 PM EST
[#34]
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Originally Posted By stone-age:


What makes you believe russia has fresh planes but not pilots for them?
New planes sounds like bad news to me.
View Quote


Here's another idea. If, for the last 8 months, the Russian breakdown rate has been greater than the repair rate, the Russian AF could have a huge backlog of non-flyers and have available pilots without serviceable aircraft.

I think the idea of newly mobilized pilots better explains the utility of older models, though.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 8:22:14 PM EST
[#35]

Link Posted: 10/16/2022 8:25:12 PM EST
[#36]
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 8:29:17 PM EST
[#37]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Yes, just like Russia is wasting the flower of their youth.  It’s sad.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By DOW:
Originally Posted By DK-Prof:


During the 1917 Third Battle of Ypres (Passchendaele) took place over about 100 days and reasonable estimates of casualties seem to be about 700,000.  So, the rate was about 7,000 casualties per day.    

During 1916, the Battle of the Somme took place over 140 days, with close to a million casualties.  So, a very similar rate - about 7,000 thousand casualties per day.

... and remember, those were specific campaigns in a small part of the overall theatre, and there was lots of dying going on at the same time on other battlefields.

WW1 must have been an absolutely terrifying meatgrinder.  






The flower of Europe...wasted.

Yes, just like Russia is wasting the flower of their youth.  It’s sad.

What's truly sad is they're taking Ukrainian's youth with them.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 8:43:19 PM EST
[#38]
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Originally Posted By DOW:



The flower of Europe...wasted.
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I remain flummoxed by the ability of the world to both move into WWI, seeing the political and technological changes from the mid 19th century or so and then after the carnage of WWI, move so quickly into WWII.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 8:43:38 PM EST
[#39]
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Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
The only logical explanation I can come up with as to why we haven't sent ATACMS yet is that some elements of the Biden Administration (probably including Biden himself) are stalling. After all, it has to be remembered that Biden was against the raid to get UBL. The Ukrainians likely have very good intelligence as to what's going on deep in Russia's rear, both through NATO and their own SIGINT and HUMINT, hence why they've been begging for ATACMS for months. It's really a shame that we haven't supplied any, and that the Biden Administration has shown no indication that they're going to supply any in the future.
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Theres a couple explanations

1.Worried the ATACMS might actually be the real Red Line for Russia

2. Desire to save all ATACMs for the fight with China until PrsM is developed

3. Concern ATACMS might end the war too quickly.

#3 is the most ruthless but interesting option. Theres a valid case to be made for giving Russia some hope they can win so that they will throw even more resources into the meat grinder, in order to maximize the overall destruction of Russias capabilities.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 8:59:40 PM EST
[#40]
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Originally Posted By Birddog15:



Must be Billy Preston driving.  

Will it go round in circles?

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Fucking Brutal! This is why I love this place!
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 9:04:31 PM EST
[#41]
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


Theres a couple explanations

1.Worried the ATACMS might actually be the real Red Line for Russia

2. Desire to save all ATACMs for the fight with China until PrsM is developed

3. Concern ATACMS might end the war too quickly.

#3 is the most ruthless but interesting option. Theres a valid case to be made for giving Russia some hope they can win so that they will throw even more resources into the meat grinder, in order to maximize the overall destruction of Russias capabilities.
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast:
The only logical explanation I can come up with as to why we haven't sent ATACMS yet is that some elements of the Biden Administration (probably including Biden himself) are stalling. After all, it has to be remembered that Biden was against the raid to get UBL. The Ukrainians likely have very good intelligence as to what's going on deep in Russia's rear, both through NATO and their own SIGINT and HUMINT, hence why they've been begging for ATACMS for months. It's really a shame that we haven't supplied any, and that the Biden Administration has shown no indication that they're going to supply any in the future.


Theres a couple explanations

1.Worried the ATACMS might actually be the real Red Line for Russia

2. Desire to save all ATACMs for the fight with China until PrsM is developed

3. Concern ATACMS might end the war too quickly.

#3 is the most ruthless but interesting option. Theres a valid case to be made for giving Russia some hope they can win so that they will throw even more resources into the meat grinder, in order to maximize the overall destruction of Russias capabilities.

Re: #3, I suspect we don't have a plan for Eurasia politically blasting itself apart. Russia failing in a matter of months is the power vacuum of all power vacuums across the greatest land mass on earth.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 9:17:43 PM EST
[#42]
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Originally Posted By GiggleSmith:
When you figure that The Ukraine was losing  100 dead per day At The Start, as a whole, that isn't that bad.
I remember reading that during the World Wars, about 1,000 soldiers died Per Day, excluding Major Attacks and offenses.

What were the causality rates Per Day during the Iran/Iraq war
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3000 per day during WW1 was one number I saw.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 9:20:22 PM EST
[#43]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:

Wow if they are doing that then their training schools must really suck.
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
Originally Posted By j_hooker:

From what I'm understanding, they're recruiting pilots around the world

Wow if they are doing that then their training schools must really suck.
I thought I saw a story posted that said they are offering huge bonuses to pilots of foreign countries citizens that were familiar with soviet aircraft.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 9:24:36 PM EST
[#44]
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Originally Posted By atavistic:

Re: #3, I suspect we don't have a plan for Eurasia politically blasting itself apart. Russia failing in a matter of months is the power vacuum of all power vacuums across the greatest land mass on earth.
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I suppose there are think tankers thinking?  I don't know what the natural resources that might be exploitable?  If any?  If so, why not already?  Population density and sophistication is quite low?  Geographic obstacles, distance, deserts, mountains and/or snow bound when not a swamp?  China would likely have "interest" in the eastern areas.  Some national "ego" at work even if limited resources?  OTOH, with the Islamic populations, where will that go, to support the Uighurs vs China, to come together under another proposed "Caliphate?"  Or historic animosities and turmoil bubbling back up just because the lid is lifted?  Like Yugoslavia?
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 9:33:06 PM EST
[#45]
There’s all that rain.

Infantry troops #Ukraine continue to advance towards #Kherson . Here we see that they captured a Russian defense position and destroyed a Russian Tigr-M 4x4 armored vehicle. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineUnderAttaсk #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWar

Link Posted: 10/16/2022 9:36:49 PM EST
[#46]
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:Theres a couple explanations

1.Worried the ATACMS might actually be the real Red Line for Russia

2. Desire to save all ATACMs for the fight with China until PrsM is developed

3. Concern ATACMS might end the war too quickly.

#3 is the most ruthless but interesting option. Theres a valid case to be made for giving Russia some hope they can win so that they will throw even more resources into the meat grinder, in order to maximize the overall destruction of Russias capabilities.
View Quote

I've heard that repeated in arfcom many times. While it's not impossible, it's an appalling possibility, and carries its own risks. There could come a point at which all of Russia says that they cannot accept anything less than victory because they've already spilled too much blood to accept less. Scorching all the earth could be their last resort to the most pyrrhic of all victories. Surely there are enough smart people in DC that understand immediate and complete annihilation of the enemy is the best victory, and playing for attrition is dumb.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 9:44:41 PM EST
[#47]
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Originally Posted By atavistic:

Re: #3, I suspect we don't have a plan for Eurasia politically blasting itself apart. Russia failing in a matter of months is the power vacuum of all power vacuums across the greatest land mass on earth.
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Eh who knows. Soviet Union was far a bigger collapse and it ceased to exist without so much as a whimper.
Link Posted: 10/16/2022 9:46:40 PM EST
[#48]

Link Posted: 10/16/2022 9:47:19 PM EST
[#49]
Ukrainians come in all sizes

Link Posted: 10/16/2022 9:47:47 PM EST
[Last Edit: Prime] [#50]
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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 2839 of 5592)
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