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Originally Posted By mokerr: https://i.redd.it/7yto1frsb7z91.jpg e: perhaps I'm fucking retarded, but when they say the "right" bank of the Dnipro, do they mean east or west? View Quote Again: per World wide agreement, the sides of a river are ALWAYS labeled, as seen downstream. Imagine the flow direction of the river, looking DOWN stream, and right is right bank and left is left bank. This is ALWAYS! The right bank may be north bank, east bank, ... whatever - look downstream and Right" is "Right" and "Left" is "left bank" Hermann |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Interesting if true.
View Quote The Iranians are not stupid people. Their leaders may be tone deaf, but they're not stupid. Providing a few things is a token. If Russia wins, Iran helped. If they lose, Iran only provided weapons "before the war" (uh-huh... ). |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
Originally Posted By CharlieR: No, its a good idea. You open the gates up a little to get the reservoir down. Right before an attack you stop the flow completely. The river dries up; if it gets down to a foot or two the infantry could walk across and they could get combat power across, say in a night attack, without needing boats. You'd still need to lay on bridges but its not a bad idea. As anotehr poster said, I dont know if its environmentally possible; youd have to look at the watershed and where the water comes from. The only flaw is if the Russians have the ability to destroy the dam with airpower while you plan on walking across. Then you have this sort of "Force 10 from Navarone" remake. It would be less risky to use boats as the primary but that's a hair away from suicidal. Im not gonna lie, I just. dont. see it. That river has an Omaha Beach/Pickett's charge vibe to me. I think its no mans land. Dnieper river near Kherson Looking west toward Kherson View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By CharlieR: Originally Posted By governmentman: The idea was drop the reservoir in advance so it would have capacity to take up the flow for an extended period once the dam flow was shut off. Again, probably an idiotic idea, but I couldn't find an immediate flaw. The point others made about depth of freezing needed for heavy equipment is probably the Achilles heel. The other tributaries is another good point. So its a terrible idea. sorry for the derail. No, its a good idea. You open the gates up a little to get the reservoir down. Right before an attack you stop the flow completely. The river dries up; if it gets down to a foot or two the infantry could walk across and they could get combat power across, say in a night attack, without needing boats. You'd still need to lay on bridges but its not a bad idea. As anotehr poster said, I dont know if its environmentally possible; youd have to look at the watershed and where the water comes from. The only flaw is if the Russians have the ability to destroy the dam with airpower while you plan on walking across. Then you have this sort of "Force 10 from Navarone" remake. It would be less risky to use boats as the primary but that's a hair away from suicidal. Im not gonna lie, I just. dont. see it. That river has an Omaha Beach/Pickett's charge vibe to me. I think its no mans land. Dnieper river near Kherson Looking west toward Kherson The mud depth is probably measured in meters. Not sure how far up the river is brackish. |
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Originally Posted By brahm: I thought the water from the reservoir was used to cool the nuclear reactor. View Quote Exactly. THANKS for your post! Seems not everybody gets this! If the dam is broken, reservoir emptied, river water level will be several meters lower than reseroir level now. And with no provision for that, there will be no cooling of spent elements. See Fukushima. Hermann |
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Originally Posted By lokifox: The mud depth is probably measured in meters. Not sure how far up the river is brackish. View Quote About every 10 years or so due to drought or maintenance the water level drops to almost the pre dammed level. It would take months for the mud to dry enough to walk on, much less drive tanks. It is sort of cool though, the towns that were flooded are still mostly intact to some degree. |
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For a people who are free, and who mean to remain so, a well-organized and armed militia is their best security.
Thomas Jefferson "He didnt punch anybody. He punched an idea." DrFrige |
Originally Posted By lokifox: The Iranians are not stupid people. Their leaders may be tone deaf, but they're not stupid. Providing a few things is a token. If Russia wins, Iran helped. If they lose, Iran only provided weapons "before the war" (uh-huh... ). View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By lokifox: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Interesting if true.
The Iranians are not stupid people. Their leaders may be tone deaf, but they're not stupid. Providing a few things is a token. If Russia wins, Iran helped. If they lose, Iran only provided weapons "before the war" (uh-huh... ). Lol. Always assume Iran is doing exactly the opposite of what they say. |
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Originally Posted By kncook: Lol. Always assume Iran is doing exactly the opposite of what they say. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By kncook: Originally Posted By lokifox: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Interesting if true.
The Iranians are not stupid people. Their leaders may be tone deaf, but they're not stupid. Providing a few things is a token. If Russia wins, Iran helped. If they lose, Iran only provided weapons "before the war" (uh-huh... ). Lol. Always assume Iran is doing exactly the opposite of what they say. They are weirdly open in their intentions occasionally. eg: Their attack on al-Assad. You never know what is bullshit and what they are telling the truth about. |
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First Helicopter captured? |
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
Originally Posted By CharlieR: No, its a good idea. You open the gates up a little to get the reservoir down. Right before an attack you stop the flow completely. The river dries up; if it gets down to a foot or two the infantry could walk across and they could get combat power across, say in a night attack, without needing boats. You'd still need to lay on bridges but its not a bad idea. As anotehr poster said, I dont know if its environmentally possible; youd have to look at the watershed and where the water comes from. The only flaw is if the Russians have the ability to destroy the dam with airpower while you plan on walking across. Then you have this sort of "Force 10 from Navarone" remake. It would be less risky to use boats as the primary but that's a hair away from suicidal. Im not gonna lie, I just. dont. see it. That river has an Omaha Beach/Pickett's charge vibe to me. I think its no mans land. Dnieper river near Kherson Looking west toward Kherson View Quote As soon as the Russians figure out that there's an attempted mass night infiltration attack across the now suspiciously low river they're call the nearest artillery battery (or air asset, or cruise missile) in range and say "Comrade Ivan, fire target AA001. Blow the dam" the Russians are clearly on the defensive in the south now and for the foreseeable future, they have nothing to lose by doing it. Failing blowing the dam, it's still an infantry attack unsupported by either armor (unless you take the time to build the bridges and end up losing any surprise) or close air support assets (unless Ukraine says fuck it we're accepting near 100% casualties on those) over a river bed. It's extremely vulnerable to counterattack and gives the Ukrainians a lot of the same issues the Russians had when they were on the west bank of the river but without the benefit of an urban battlespace to defend from. The Ukrainian casualties could be better spent elsewhere. Whether it's draining the river or conducting an opposed landing with boats or doing an air assault, anyway you slice it Ukraine attacking across the river is going to result in significantly higher casualties than a flanking maneuver by land would. Now what would be novel is doing air assaults or smaller landing options in direct support of a push down the eastern bank. |
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Kherson cat needs some vatnik tears to go with his Brandy:
Attached File |
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Originally Posted By Jack67: Kherson cat needs some vatnik tears to go with his Brandy:
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/556465/E16ABEE7-8B52-4E6E-862C-DEFA336D8750_jpe-2596601.JPG View Quote lol, he was so happy this morning when he geolocated Ukrainian forces a few miles from him this morning. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Verified account imposters on Twitter today. The bottom was the real account. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhRStcIXgAAtlK5?format=jpg&name=small View Quote |
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Your boos mean nothing, I've seen what makes you cheer
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Originally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: Is the TQ incase of a paper cut? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: Originally Posted By Prime:
Gimli finds an abandoned orc position.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhNlyS1WAAINJdr?format=jpg&name=medium A 9 month war and her gear still looks new, impressive. Use scotchgard? shes been fighting since day one? shes frontline? or rear guard doing paper work? Is the TQ incase of a paper cut? Bad take considering most of arfcom keeps TQ's with them. Know your audience. |
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: M30, M31, whatever it takes. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: Originally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By Circuits: M30A1 alternative warhead is the one that shreds troop concentrations. M31A1 unitary just goes "boom". Ooops, yeah it's the m30 not the m31. Close M30, M31, whatever it takes. I know I'm a few pages behind but, god damn, that's an A-1 quality comment. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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At least 3 tacticians that have been correct in the past are saying this is the next step in 4 to 6 weeks.
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Huge Blow For Russia Forces As It Abandons Key Ukrainian City Of Kherson |
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Originally Posted By Circuits: Any caliber decision is always a tradeoff between projectile size/capability and ammo supply, and resources consumed. If a 23mm will get the job done, then going to 25mm usually is contraindicated, because it consumes more resources for little or no improvement in performance, and at a cost of the amount of ammunition that can be produced and transported in the same volume and at the same cost in freight tonnage or fuel. The Russians decided on 23mm as their anti-aircraft cannon round of choice, and also use that round in their basic aircraft cannon, while the US/West decided on 20mm and for much the same reasons in both aircraft cannon and basic air defense. For whatever reason, the US/West like to go in increments of 5mm - so 20/25/30/35/40, while the combloc wasn't so hung up on round numbers, or perhaps had good operational reasons to select 23mm instead of 20 or 25. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Circuits: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: That thing is a beast. Any SME opinions on the Russian 23mm? Why 23mm? Dont they have a 25mm or only 30MM? Any caliber decision is always a tradeoff between projectile size/capability and ammo supply, and resources consumed. If a 23mm will get the job done, then going to 25mm usually is contraindicated, because it consumes more resources for little or no improvement in performance, and at a cost of the amount of ammunition that can be produced and transported in the same volume and at the same cost in freight tonnage or fuel. The Russians decided on 23mm as their anti-aircraft cannon round of choice, and also use that round in their basic aircraft cannon, while the US/West decided on 20mm and for much the same reasons in both aircraft cannon and basic air defense. For whatever reason, the US/West like to go in increments of 5mm - so 20/25/30/35/40, while the combloc wasn't so hung up on round numbers, or perhaps had good operational reasons to select 23mm instead of 20 or 25. Russia has two 23mm cartridges in service, one that is comparable mostly to our 20mm and another that’s closer to a 25mm, but both are mostly just aircraft and antiaircraft calibers. I suspect they chose 23mm because the first cartridge was a necked up 14.5x114mm and that probably gave them the shoulder and ballistics they wanted. They also have their 30mm which falls between our 25 and 30mm in performance. Of all the Soviet/Russian calibers the only one I’m jealous of is 14.5x114mm and we would have done well to adopt either it, or the Air Forces .60 caliber or the FN 15.2mm that are similar. It’s a sweet spot of size and performance. |
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Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Roger that, thank you. In a way, they have to use it how we would use air superiority? View Quote Yes, in the sense that strike missions you could y at tremendous expense you can fire with long range artillery at reduced cost. This is the future for armies that have a budget. Artillery is a much better replacement for aircraft than aircraft is for artillery. |
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: I checked, the river doesn’t freeze hard enough to support military operations except light infantry and special operations. View Quote I figured that. The area where I live looks a lot like that area from satellite views. I bet the weather is pretty close, too. |
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World ain't what it seems, is it Gunny?
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: At least 3 tacticians that have been correct in the past are saying this is the next step in 4 to 6 weeks.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhUYfjMUAAMGawu?format=jpg&name=large View Quote That's pretty much what we were tossing around in the summer, here. |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: At least 3 tacticians that have been correct in the past are saying this is the next step in 4 to 6 weeks.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhUYfjMUAAMGawu?format=jpg&name=large View Quote |
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Originally Posted By vahog: That's pretty much what we were tossing around in the summer, here. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By vahog: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: At least 3 tacticians that have been correct in the past are saying this is the next step in 4 to 6 weeks.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhUYfjMUAAMGawu?format=jpg&name=large That's pretty much what we were tossing around in the summer, here. Yep, there are some good tacticians here too. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: That thing is a beast. Any SME opinions on the Russian 23mm? Why 23mm? Dont they have a 25mm or only 30MM? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: That thing is a beast. Any SME opinions on the Russian 23mm? Why 23mm? Dont they have a 25mm or only 30MM? Their 23mm is pretty close to the US 25mm, much more powerful then the US 20mm 20x102 = 100g @ 3,400fps 23x152 = 190g @ 3,200fps 25x137 = 184g @ 3,600fps |
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Originally Posted By Capta: Hard to say how long it will take, but probably not 5 years. Whatever Russian propaganda says, Russia is in a dire fucking situation and there’s no way they can last 5 years against Ukraine with NATO continuing to supply them. Which they will. The Russians can keep sending totally untrained mobiks to the slaughter, and Ukraine can keep slaughtering them. At some point the Russian army will collapse and/or mutiny. Within 5 years Russia will probably have a lot more to worry about that Ukraine. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By ad_nauseam: Originally Posted By MelGibsonEnthusiast: I still think the war is going to go on for a while, especially if Ukraine wants to push the Russians back to the pre-2014 boundaries (which I think they can and should). There's still a lot of fighting to be done to take back the rest of the south/Donbas and especially Crimea, which I think the Russians will fight tooth and nail for. The Ukrainians are going to win provided Western support continues, but the I think the Putin regime can and will throw bodies at them for quite some time still. That being said, I do concur that Russia's chances at coming away with ANYTHING resembling a victory are dying in Kherson. Yeah I expect it to last a few more years. At best, the pre-2022 borders could be restored in late 2023 but to restore the pre-2014 borders, that could take 5 years. Hard to say how long it will take, but probably not 5 years. Whatever Russian propaganda says, Russia is in a dire fucking situation and there’s no way they can last 5 years against Ukraine with NATO continuing to supply them. Which they will. The Russians can keep sending totally untrained mobiks to the slaughter, and Ukraine can keep slaughtering them. At some point the Russian army will collapse and/or mutiny. Within 5 years Russia will probably have a lot more to worry about that Ukraine. Agree: Russia surviving 5 years? Where? And with what?? Kherson controls nearly all the freshwater supply to Crimea, and when the cut it off from 2014 to 2022, life was tough in Crimea. The crappy Russian desalination plants never worked well. The UA managed to hit the Kerch bridge once: when they finally drop it, the Crim is mostly cut off. They won’t last 5 years under those conditions, and Sanctions already forced them to go begging; only North Korea and Iran will touch this mess (and everyone already hated them, so they had the least to lose). The Russian bloggers lament the lack of Russian precision weapons; that will get worse without chips or manufacturing capacity. Their brightest minds fleeing to - really anywhere - will compound their dismal demographic outlook. So: not 5 years. This ends much sooner. |
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Originally Posted By CenterMass762: I know I'm a few pages behind but, god damn, that's an A-1 quality comment. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck: Originally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By Circuits: M30A1 alternative warhead is the one that shreds troop concentrations. M31A1 unitary just goes "boom". Ooops, yeah it's the m30 not the m31. Close M30, M31, whatever it takes. I know I'm a few pages behind but, god damn, that's an A-1 quality comment. I may not be able to provide the detailed military insight some folks here have but I try. |
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DeSantis 2024
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Their 23mm is pretty close to the US 25mm, much more powerful then the US 20mm 20x102 = 100g @ 3,400fps 23x152 = 190g @ 3,200fps 25x137 = 184g @ 3,600fps View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: That thing is a beast. Any SME opinions on the Russian 23mm? Why 23mm? Dont they have a 25mm or only 30MM? Their 23mm is pretty close to the US 25mm, much more powerful then the US 20mm 20x102 = 100g @ 3,400fps 23x152 = 190g @ 3,200fps 25x137 = 184g @ 3,600fps I heard a rumor that the Soviets used to see what caliber we made and make theirs a hair larger so they could (try) to fire our captured ammo if necessary. (Ignoring the issue of pressures) |
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
nothing of value here
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Originally Posted By sq40: I think from ChargingHandle: The Ukrainians have committed something like 100,000 troops to taking Kherson. Now that the force of 25,000 Russians have been forcefully evicted from Kherson and the bridges across the river destroyed, a huge chunk of those 100,000 Ukrainian troops will now also be freed up to be deployed to other sectors. If Russia sends most of those 25,000 to Bakhmut, I would imagine Ukraine could send 75,000 or so troops from the Kherson area to meet them. Russia isn't getting back across the river in the Kherson area, so there will no longer be any reason for Ukraine to keep such a large force tied down defending it. View Quote That´s what I wonder: IF there were 100.000 Ukrainians fighting on the west side of the Dnjepr, and onyl 25.000 Russians there, why was there no significant land gain for SIX weeks??? Hermann |
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
Originally Posted By vahog: That's pretty much what we were tossing around in the summer, here. View Quote Yep, we mapped that out early summer. In other news, for $250,000, you can crowdfund and name your own suicide drone boat. In before “Boaty McBoatface.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-is-crowdfunding-a-new-fleet-of-drone-boats-to-take-on-the-russian-navy-and-for-just-250-000-it-ll-let-people-name-one/ar-AA1412y3?li=BBnbcA1 |
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
Originally Posted By Arminius: That´s what I wonder: IF there were 100.000 Ukrainians fighting on the west side of the Dnjepr, and onyl 25.000 Russians there, why was there no significant land gain for SIX weeks??? Hermann View Quote Because you want a 3-1 advantage when attacking a prepared defensive position and even then you're expecting the breaching element to be essentially destroyed. Positional warfare takes time and it's not like the Ukrainians were just going to zerg rush their troops into an urban fight. |
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Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity. -Robert J. Hanlon
Fact is stranger than fiction -Mark Twain |
Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Russia has two 23mm cartridges in service, one that is comparable mostly to our 20mm and another that’s closer to a 25mm, but both are mostly just aircraft and antiaircraft calibers. I suspect they chose 23mm because the first cartridge was a necked up 14.5x114mm and that probably gave them the shoulder and ballistics they wanted. They also have their 30mm which falls between our 25 and 30mm in performance. Of all the Soviet/Russian calibers the only one I’m jealous of is 14.5x114mm and we would have done well to adopt either it, or the Air Forces .60 caliber or the FN 15.2mm that are similar. It’s a sweet spot of size and performance. View Quote What is the BC's of these types of rounds? |
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Originally Posted By DASJUDEN: Because you want a 3-1 advantage when attacking a prepared defensive position and even then you're expecting the breaching element to be essentially destroyed. Positional warfare takes time and it's not like the Ukrainians were just going to zerg rush their troops into an urban fight. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By DASJUDEN: Originally Posted By Arminius: That´s what I wonder: IF there were 100.000 Ukrainians fighting on the west side of the Dnjepr, and onyl 25.000 Russians there, why was there no significant land gain for SIX weeks??? Hermann Because you want a 3-1 advantage when attacking a prepared defensive position and even then you're expecting the breaching element to be essentially destroyed. Positional warfare takes time and it's not like the Ukrainians were just going to zerg rush their troops into an urban fight. They were still preparing the battlefield. Easing troops is what a dumb army does. Preparing the battlefield and conserving your troops until you are ready is what a smart army does. Ukraine could have thrown the 100,000 against the 25,000 and lost half of their army. Preparing the battlefield and attritting the enemy makes it so you can do this with 10% casualties. Keys is not to let the enemy dictate the plan and sometimes time is the enemy. |
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Only God will judge me.
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Originally Posted By Tiberius: But they still haven’t picked up “Coach Red Pill” in Kharkiv…..I kinda wonder why, I’d have deported him months ago. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Tiberius: Originally Posted By Easterner: Originally Posted By fadedsun: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: This is a new one dated for today. Hi ho Hi ho it's off to GD I go Oh you. Looks like there may be a lack of fresh material to spew. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/526834/IMG_20221111_001115_jpg-2595322.JPG But they still haven’t picked up “Coach Red Pill” in Kharkiv…..I kinda wonder why, I’d have deported him months ago. Maybe they’re feeding that twit disinformation knowing it’ll get passed back to Russia. |
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Originally Posted By Freiheit8472: I heard a rumor that the Soviets used to see what caliber we made and make theirs a hair larger so they could (try) to fire our captured ammo if necessary. (Ignoring the issue of pressures) View Quote Applies to 82 mm / 81 mm Mortars only. Low pressure rounds. Hermann |
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Originally Posted By Arminius: That s what I wonder: IF there were 100.000 Ukrainians fighting on the west side of the Dnjepr, and onyl 25.000 Russians there, why was there no significant land gain for SIX weeks??? Hermann View Quote And Ukraine called this a month or two ago. They knew what was going to happen. Why Leroy Jenkins in there and get thousands killed for no reason. |
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"the science" /duh si-ens/ noun: progressive postmodern religious dogma not based in tested hypothesis or facts used to advance an authoritative political ideology
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