This clocks with another article that was posted a couple weeks ago. Russia's main, workhorse artillery is the 122mm and 152mm. They are depleting both tubes and shells, spending both faster than they can be produced. That's why the bigger SPGs are getting hit more frequently, they're being brought within range to make up the lack of the others.

Ukrainian Krab SPG with anti drone cage.

Russia is rotten to the core, they destroy themselves more than any one else

It sounds like the issue is tubes; the "Russian Way of War" requires heavy use of artillery for both offensive and defensive actions, and they have probably used up their tubes since we see them pulling tubes from "deep storage" vehicles.  I would bet the "salvaged" tubes are not in the greatest shape, considering what we have seen of Russian storage methods.  Also, on a modern battlefield, you cannot realistically sustain both constant mass and mobility of fires to avoid counterfire/interdiction simultaneously.  Also, as tubes wear, you have to advance you fires closer to the front to get the same effects.  Mining the shit out of your rear areas and forcing your forward artillery assets to move along established routes to predictable firing points with predictable resupply routes doesn't help matters either!

Cope cages have come full circle lol

At least they aren't supposed to stop a javelin.

The Artillery Is Never Ending - Former US Marine Wounded Fighting In Ukrainian Legion Interview

I agree. There were no bloodless hands in that war.

awesome vid.   thanks for posting.

incredible to hear a first-hand American experience

I've been very busy lately, but here's the recent War on the Rocks interview with Michael Kofman about the state of the Ukrainian offensive and Zelensky's visit to Washington.

Key takeaways:

. Ukrainian progress south of Bakhmut is notable. It'll be interesting to see if they can take the high ground around Kurdymivka.

. There's been a renewed Ukrainian push towards Verbove, which is the linchpin of Russian defenses in the area. It's currently being held by VDV elements from the 7th and 76th divisions. There's a debate in the community about whether Russia has enough forces to hold, considering their deployment of so many strategic reserves in the area.

. Calls the Ukrainian advances beyond the 2nd Surovikin line is a "breach" not a breakthrough, since the Russian defense is being pressed but not collapsing.

. He goes into a discussion about how to define a breakthrough vs a breach, says he tends to be conservative about it. Troops don't like it when you claim victory on their behalf, or declare they've broken enemy lines when they aren't there yet. Also misleading to the public.

. To consider it a breakthrough, he would like to see Ukrainian mechanized/motorized units operating behind the line largely uncontested and see significant withdrawals of Russian forces, not just 100m at a time. It entails a sense of momentum.

. Kofman: "I wanna be optimistic about this, I think Ukrainian forces are widening a breach through this line of defense that they hope to turn into a breakthrough." It remains to be seen if Ukrainians can pick up the pace or if the current (slow) pace of advance will continue up to the Winter or through the Winter.

. Current assessment of the offensive: Ukrainian forces have penetrated the first Russian line of defense and in some places the second line of defense, causing a breach not a breakthrough of Russian lines though it might be trending in that direction.

. Q: This offensive may continue indefinitely at the current pace, how do you judge its success if that happens? A: analysts need to bound and judge an offensive based on their own framework, it's rare that offensives are announced to be over. If the Ukrainian objective is to continue pressing Russian forces going into the Winter, and also through the Winter then the intensity of fighting might eventually decline to a level which can be sustained through the Winter, which will make it challenging for analysts to determine when to call the offensive over or not. Kofman clarifies that he doesn't see it this way, he will judge the offensive based on the goals it set for itself: namely the maximalist goal of reaching the Azov coast and capture of Melitopol as well as the minimalist goal of reaching Tokmak.

. If Ukrainian forces are able to reach Tokmak he would consider the offensive a qualified success. Even if they don't, it could still be considered a success depending on the damage they are able to inflict on Russian forces vs what they themselves suffered.

. Kofman thinks Ukraine likely has a positive ratio of casualties and equipment destroyed in this offensive. He also thinks Ukraine likely has the ammunition available to continue the offensive into or through the Winter, though he's unsure about Ukrainian force availability to continue the offensive that long. He thinks the Ukrainian military is aiming to keep the initiative at least into the Winter.

. He thinks Ukraine is able to rotate their forces launching attacks in Zaporizhzhia adequately, but its unclear what the state of Ukrainian assault forces are, which is different from the number of brigades Ukraine has available on paper.

. Weather won't impact the offensive if it continues at the current pace, but if Ukrainians are hoping for a breakthrough, that would be affected since vehicles are required for higher pace of movement. If Ukraine doesn't achieve a breakthrough, it will be a very long slog to Tokmak.

. Goal of Zelensky's visit was to advocate for the $24b supplemental aid package to Ukraine stuck in Congress. Kofman thinks that those in Washington who hoped Ukraine's offensive would put them in a superior negotiating position have abandoned these hopes and people are starting to wake up to the fact that this will be a long war and that all the potential opportunities to end the war more quickly have been missed. Ukraine will need Western investment in their domestic equipment production and maintenance facilities, and increased Western training support to enable them to reconstitute their forces.

. Long periods of heavy attritional fighting is going to become necessary to put pressure on Russian forces and prevent them from being able to go on the offensive, and Ukraine will need Western support to be able to do this.

. Kofman hopes that key decisionmakers are finally coming to the realization that this is a long war and it will continue for a long time, and that Ukraine needs longterm commitments and investments to keep up the fight.

. Without another round of mobilization Kofman doesn't think Russia will be able to go on the offensive again.

. Kofman differentiated between Ukrainian Intelligence Service drone campaign and the military cruise missiles strike campaign. He thinks the GUR campaign is focused on getting Russian domestic audience to wake up to the fact that there's a war going on and especially to convince Russian elites that there's no guarantee of Russian victory and their livelihoods are also on the line. The military cruise missiles campaign is more focused on solid military targets, especially on degrading the Russian Black Sea fleet and potentially forcing them to rebase to Novorossisk. Western support in targeting and ISR and the inherent difficulty in defending Crimea has made this strike campaign quite effective. He also thinks we're actually looking at a number of different parts of the Ukrainian military with different goals and strategies and lumping them altogether.

. Ukrainians are likely to get the M29 cluster munitions variant of ATACMS. It's shorter range, but should prove effective targeting Russian forward helicopter operating bases (like Berdiansk), as well as Russian force concentrations, and time sensitive targets. Unclear how many they will receive/how many are available. Importantly ISR is crucial to how they will be employed, and as is Ukraine has difficulty targeting positions 30+ km behind the line. As such there's an expectation that the West (US) would assist with targeting, but that would require very close coordination that likely doesn't exist at the moment. It's likely only high level commanders will be able to approve the use of these munitions, which will affect what targets they are used on. They'll also be largely ineffective against Russian AD targets since Russia has way more S-300 and S-400 TELs than there are ATACMS.

Overall, it seems like Kofman is actually still somewhat optimistic about the potential for a Ukrainian breakthrough, or barring that, their ability to keep pressing the Russians over the next few months and potentially through the Winter.

That is a very stand up statement by the Turkish company. And huge boon to Ukraine to get a modern weapons factory built so soon. Fantastic!

That’s great to hear. Well done Europe!

That’s some sensitive detection method Russia has going there. Able to detect an 80% aberration! No wonder they can’t get ships repaired. I thought it was lack of skilled workers. But it’s the funds are stolen. That is brazen!

IDK if you remember. But back in the day during a Riot Squad thread lull the topic turned to war and how the marines were getting rid of tanks. I tried to tell everyone then, that UAV's have completely changed the battlefield and PGM's have improved the way we fight. A modern day Pacific campaign wouldn't look anything like WW2

Suddenly all Russian missiles outside Russia were declared inoperable…by Russia.

I don’t think Ukraine will have any problems “repairing” them.  But it unintentionally creates the perfect excuse to donate them to Ukraine. 😁

BREAKING:

France announces it is sending another 6 Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.

\uD83C\uDDEB\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 pic.twitter.com/LGdYj3ldim

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 30, 2023

I hope their range will clobber many dozens of Russian SPGs and 152s. Maybe a few T-55s for dessert.

Did we ever get the big announcement Zelensky was going to make?

It's endemic to their culture on all levels.

I think it was the announcement that Ukraine wants to become a defense production powerhouse and has something like 30 countries signed on.

Thanks for the summary.

I don't watch most of the videos posted here, just don't have the time, so I appreciate synopses or summaries.

thanks

Zelensky is very excited about this defense industry forum and the follow-on agreements. Within a couple of years they could be really ramping up production of drones, missiles and armor.

Our country will become one of the key global producers of weapons and defense systems.

Zelenskyi's evening speech

--

The first Defense Industries Forum was held. Very successful.

Our new format with defense companies is the Defense Industries Alliance, which as of this evening already has 38 participating companies. They represent 19 countries of the world.… pic.twitter.com/ragVFgVpkB

— NOELREPORTS \uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@NOELreports) September 30, 2023

It is reported that the DRG consisting of 50 people entered the Bryansk region. There is a battle going on. Guys, drg is 2-5 people. 50 people is a half-company, not a DRG; this is an invasion, not sabotage.

ZHIVOVZ
https://t.me/zhivoff/11112



Even without knowing what exactly is happening in the Bryansk region, I can say why this is happening.

1. I’m almost sure that there are 1.5 soldiers per kilometer of front.
2. There are no surveillance equipment or drones.
3. There are no or almost no operational weapons: mortars, anti-aircraft guns, etc.

Low density of drugs, lack of technical equipment and means of destruction.

In some areas, these problems were eliminated at the expense of competent commanders, and there crests are afraid to even look towards the border.

ZHIVOVZ
https://t.me/zhivoff/11113

I assume it is the defense forum. I was hoping for Barbarossa Part Deux. But the industry announcements seem to be it.

I wonder how many European conglomerates will regret their govts sending arms to Ukraine.


Oh well it was bound to happen, they would be smart to target all the Russian customers and stay away from the bigger ones.

Dang, looks pretty professional. Not like something some private with welding skills would Jerry rig together.

This is something that triggers me. Because GD acts like the US is the most corrupt country ever..... at least when it's a Democrat in the WH. But corruption is far far far worse in much of the rest of the world.

I mean we need to fight corruption here. But we're still Mt Olympus compared to much of the rest of the world.

Yep.

Watching GD and the GOP throughout this whole war has been a lesson in not putting your hopes in princes. Somehow they've decided that "America First" means running to the left of Obama on foreign policy and putting Russia's interests before our own.

Those “true patriots” tend to hate America first and foremost and excuse the despots of the world.

Enlightening is t it?

Oh yeah, I do remember that.  And I think you're right, a modern Pacific campaign would not look like the WW2 ones.  Cruise missiles, cruise missiles everywhere!  

The Czech Republic will give Ukraine a license for the production of CZ BREN 2 assault rifles. The Czechs will also help the Ukrainians to establish the production of ammunition. This project will be implemented by Sellier & Bellot. pic.twitter.com/bsjmvD1NwL

— NOELREPORTS \uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@NOELreports) September 30, 2023

I think the big announcement was all the western defense companies that want to build military equipment in Ukraine going forward.