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Posted: 3/8/2024 2:04:10 PM EDT
[#1]
an inertial and satellite navigation system (comet with 8 antennas), a system of ailerons and rudders in the tail part and probably an outboard turbojet engine and a fuel tank. Such a cheap cruise missile, production date 02.24     |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 3/8/2024 2:08:13 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I was wondering where it came from, but he has said before that if Russian forces weren't going to use the tactics he recommended that the West would win. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
BS. First, what's the date? Second, that is edited: what's the full context? Girkin has said before that he believes in Russia's eventual victory. That piece is just Ukraine propaganda. I was wondering where it came from, but he has said before that if Russian forces weren't going to use the tactics he recommended that the West would win. He has repeatedly said that changes are needed in Russia's approach to ensure victory, and also that under certain conditions of failure, Russia could collapse. And he has advocated for the changes he thinks are necessary to get the win, which is why he's in jail now. But I don't believe this edited video supports that radical caption. Looking back at his videos over 22-23, I'm sure any of us could have produced an edited clip that appeared to show belief that Ukraine will win, but I find this video unconvincing. I'm willing to bet Girkin himself would object to how this is edited and framed. Moving on, Olga from Kyiv has more content than Real Ukraine. "What do you think of Russians now?" Savage.  What do Ukrainians think about russians now? |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 2:15:37 PM EDT
[#3]
Friends, there is new news from the pre-trial detention center from Igor!
Lawyer Molokhov, together with other lawyers, visited him on March 7. He reports that Igor Ivanovich is cheerful and does not lose his fortitude. Igor does not sit idle - he writes analytics and even composes fables (for example, about the re-creation of the Leningrad Military District). True, according to the lawyer, he is very dissatisfied that, due to the fault of the court, he has still not been given a meeting with his wife, and that his correspondence is being strictly censored. It’s a shame that, due to censorship, we will not read Igor’s brilliant analytical note on the prospects for the development of the military-political situation in Transnistria in the near future. Igor Ivanovich is aware of the latest socio-political events. When asked about Navalny’s death, he replied that he considered it natural, since “all of us are not getting any younger, and prison does not improve our health.” Lawyers report that Igor Strelkov is still eager to go to the front and has every reason to do so. Regarding the imminent elections, Igor said that he did not see any point in participating in the presidential elections of Russia on March 17 and would not vote in them. In legal news, next week the criminal case will be sent to the appellate court to set a date for a trial hearing. There is little hope for any practical changes in the sentence, and yet, we will continue to fight for Igor’s freedom further and make every possible effort for this. https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/991 On March 7, I visited Igor Ivanovich with other lawyers. He is cheerful, does not lose his presence of mind, he has no complaints against the administration of the Lefortovo pre-trial detention center, he composes fables, for example, in connection with the re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District, and is very dissatisfied that, due to the fault of the court, he has still not been given a meeting with his wife, that they strictly censor his correspondence, in particular, they put in a long box his brilliant analytical note on the prospects for the development of the military-political situation in Transnistria, in general, he is certainly aware of the latest socio-political events, is in correspondence with Chadayev (not confused with Chaadaev!), considers Navalny’s death natural, rushes to the front and has every reason to do so, does not believe in any “agreements” and “freezes”, no matter how home-grown capitulators dream about it, sees no point in participating on March 17 in the elections of the President of Russia, because “I’m never a politician,” but a military man. Next week, his criminal case will be sent to the appellate court to set a date for a trial hearing, but the defense does not assume that the proceedings will enter a decisive phase in the next month or two and the verdict against Strelkov will enter into legal force)) Lawyer Alexander Molokhov https://t.me/RDS_Official_channel/723 |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 2:22:27 PM EDT
[#4]
🔞🔞🔞 Two very difficult videos from the enemy of the mass death of our assault groups - this is what those same “meat assaults” look like - the complete mediocrity and incompetence of this command - the soldiers are simply thrown under the gun of enemy infantry fighting vehicles without any cover...
Berdychi village Extensive commentary on these two videos (at link) 👇 https://t.me/swodki/355562 The enemy is posting footage of the destruction of our assault groups in the village. Berdychi. How they put dozens of people and more in a shooting gallery... What is this? In the third year of hostilities, how is this possible? The questions are crying out. By and large, there is no one to turn to. If you start knocking higher, towards the “Adidas stripes”, you will be accused of discrediting the army and God knows what. What's happening? It seems that the analysis of the military prosecutor's office after the capture of Avdiivka, as I wrote about above, will remain a wish. Nothing changes... Unfortunately and horror. Meat assaults without normal preparation, without even taking into account the “basics” in tactical actions of this kind. A feeling of complete amateurism in actions. But...where is the command looking, where are the commanders looking? Or are they blind? Or incompetent? Or what? For such actions during the Great Patriotic War, the commanders who allowed and organized such things faced a military tribunal, but today these are like water off a duck’s back. Don't you feel sorry for your people at all? Russian people? Tatars, Ukrainians, Bashkirs, Yakuts, Buryats, Kalmyks? No pity? Or are they not your own? Or do they not operate with categories of pity? What do they operate with? It feels like there are ruthless robots... I repeat, scary footage (I don’t have the right to post it. Those interested can see it at the link). ...At least they jumped behind a house in an armored personnel carrier and then dismounted. Even if the house is occupied, there is still a chance to clear the house and keep it. And so they dumped me near the road under riflemen with an infantry fighting vehicle... They dumped me like meat for slaughter. There are no words... 1st Slavyanskaya... The roof is already tearing... I understand that the Minister of Defense does not have a military background. He was not taught how to act in such cases, and he is a political figure, but there are commanders who are DIRECTLY responsible for this. Will someone force them to answer for the mediocre and exemplary death of people?.. @voenkorKotenok https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/54578 |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 3:01:13 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: We need more posters, since some of the longtime contributors have been run off. I second this motion: more posters from people besides 'the usual suspects.' Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: You should post more.  I like seeing the lurkers contribute. We need more posters, since some of the longtime contributors have been run off. I second this motion: more posters from people besides 'the usual suspects.' I've read every post in the last 2 years but I rarely have anything to contribute. Thank you to all the regular posters! |
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WY, USA
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Posted: 3/8/2024 3:03:15 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIHghyhXsAIbhz-?format=jpg&name=medium Sort of want 
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Posted: 3/8/2024 3:13:37 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
That could get devastating for the Russian front lines in the south if it happens. I've been thinking about that for over a year. If... IF... Ukraine had the ability to perform effective SEAD/DEAD and simultaniously drop the Kerch bridge and cross the Dnipro in large numbers in the Krynky area and take control of Petropavlivka and Novooleksiivka, they would exert a lot of control over Crimea. Then rapidly move armor and men behind the current FLOT which would force russia to fight to their front, left flank, and rear simultaneously. I think the current russian line would probably break near Orikhiv, and the russians would retreat towards Donetsk and Mariupol. The trouble is, no significant SEAD/DEAD capabilities, low arty ammo, no real method to rapidly move large amounts of armor and men across the Dnipro. A guy can dream though, right? |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 3:36:49 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MarkNH: I've read every post in the last 2 years but I rarely have anything to contribute. Thank you to all the regular posters! |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 4:05:51 PM EDT
[#9]
Currently.
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Posted: 3/8/2024 4:29:57 PM EDT
[#10]
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Posted: 3/8/2024 4:33:48 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIK4RViWkAAloIz?format=png&name=900x900 I think that because the Ukrainians know that there's more artillery ammo on the way shortly, they're probably less likely to ration what shells they do have in reserve, and are now permitting them to be utilized more liberally. I also think it's probably accurate that while FPV drones can compensate for a lack of artillery ammo to a certain extent, they're not a complete substitute. |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 4:35:41 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: I was replying to a comment of " if you just started reeling the fiber back on the reel as you walked, eventually you'd probably get close to the launch point just following that." which would require someone on foot, not sending a drone out. Maybe one of those self propelled lawn mower land drones with some TM62s as payload. |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 4:38:15 PM EDT
[Last Edit: KaerMorhenResident]
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: I think that because the Ukrainians know that there's more artillery ammo on the way shortly, they're probably less likely to ration what shells they do have in reserve, and are now permitting them to be utilized more liberally. I also think it's probably accurate that while FPV drones can compensate for a lack of artillery ammo to a certain extent, they're not a complete substitute. My understanding is that the drones are either used to take down armor or as "clean up" for retreating infantry to prevent them from being used to regroup and reattack. So, as you have pointed out, definitely not a substitute for artillery. Either the Russians are full of #$*( or they don't believe that Ukraine is hurting for artillery as much as they say they are, because the Russian military seems to think that Ukraine still has substantial artillery capability. So, very possibly whatever artillery Ukraine has they are using to good effect. Keep in mind folks that Russian artillery is less accurate and they are on the offensive here, so it is to be expected that the Russians would be firing way more shells per day than Ukraine. |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 5:03:24 PM EDT
[Last Edit: trapsh00ter99]
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Moving on, Olga from Kyiv has more content than Real Ukraine. "What do you think of Russians now?" Savage.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1j1mTNwiMkIThere will never be reconciliation for any Ukrainian who remembers this war. |
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ESP
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Posted: 3/8/2024 5:16:36 PM EDT
[#15]
Ukrainian soldier launching grenades:
Russian MLRS detonates after Ukrainian drone strike: Ukrainians shut down another Russian assault: Ukrainian promotional video: |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 5:24:36 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fervid_dryfire: When's the last time a mine or trench stopped an FPV drone attack?  Just run an ir lazer through the fiber, and follow it with a drone.
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OK, USA
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Posted: 3/8/2024 5:30:19 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIKDOZfWUAAo70K?format=jpg&name=900x900 I wouldn't much mind if NATO suddenly decided to do what China did in the Korean War. |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 5:52:47 PM EDT
[#18]
Deportation and re-education: life in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Biden, Scholtz, and Macron's fear of "escalation" resulted in their slow drip of military aid in 2022-2023 (and, hell, 2021, as Lieh-Tzu has pointed out), and we're now seeing the consequences of that. In the southeast, Ukrainians are getting ethnically cleansed through de-Ukrainianization, Russification, deportations, and settlements of Russians from the Russian Federation itself. This is the fate that's in store for all of Ukraine (minus Galicia) should the Russians prevail. This is also the sort of stuff that's consistently ignored by people who try to portray Ukraine and Russia as being equivalent to each other. This is nothing more than an attempt to destroy Ukraine and Ukrainians.
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Posted: 3/8/2024 6:07:38 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nraheston: Ukrainian promotional video:  
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Posted: 3/8/2024 6:14:57 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Yeesh. Looks like the shrapnel opened up another airway. |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 6:16:29 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: One of maybe three sniper videos that aren’t “meh”. Russian tannerite Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
One of maybe three sniper videos that aren’t “meh”. Russian tannerite How about a couple of blocks of Kontact on the front and rear plates? |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 6:44:45 PM EDT
[#22]
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Posted: 3/8/2024 6:48:01 PM EDT
[#23]
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Posted: 3/8/2024 7:14:25 PM EDT
[#24]
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VA, USA
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Posted: 3/8/2024 7:25:15 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Bombing Coventry doesn't win the war. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 3/8/2024 7:38:49 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: My wife is much the same way. She hates anything Russian. It goes as far as hating the professional hockey players on our NHL team from Russia, local ballet studio with Russian name/owners, dwts pros from Russia.....right or wrong it's just how it is. There will never be reconciliation for any Ukrainian who remembers this war. It's ironic. Russia claims to protect ethnic Russians, but nothing has or ever will cause as much loss of Russian-speaking people in Ukraine as this invasion. Somewhere around a year ago I recall an article in Washington Post talking about how even middle-age & up Ukrainians are taking classes to learn to speak Ukrainian language ('dialect' if you insist on Russian terms) because they only spoke Russian. Russian is the 'language of the invader' and almost everyone is hot to drop that language. Russian-language books were being turned in for pulping to become toilet paper. I'm still angry after that video clip of the Russian governor of Zaporozhia casually talking about official policies to violate the Geneva conventions. Fuck every Russian that has anything to do with the government, and their whole families. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 3/8/2024 7:50:41 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Deportation and re-education: life in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Biden, Scholtz, and Macron's fear of "escalation" resulted in their slow drip of military aid in 2022-2023 (and, hell, 2021, as Lieh-Tzu has pointed out), and we're now seeing the consequences of that. In the southeast, Ukrainians are getting ethnically cleansed through de-Ukrainianization, Russification, deportations, and settlements of Russians from the Russian Federation itself. This is the fate that's in store for all of Ukraine (minus Galicia) should the Russians prevail. This is also the sort of stuff that's consistently ignored by people who try to portray Ukraine and Russia as being equivalent to each other. This is nothing more than an attempt to destroy Ukraine and Ukrainians. Putin is a war criminal. Damn, that article made me mad, too. |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 7:51:14 PM EDT
[#28]
11 minutes ago.
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Posted: 3/8/2024 7:57:49 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: It's ironic. Russia claims to protect ethnic Russians, but nothing has or ever will cause as much loss of Russian-speaking people in Ukraine as this invasion. Somewhere around a year ago I recall an article in Washington Post talking about how even middle-age & up Ukrainians are taking classes to learn to speak Ukrainian language ('dialect' if you insist on Russian terms) because they only spoke Russian. Russian is the 'language of the invader' and almost everyone is hot to drop that language. Russian-language books were being turned in for pulping to become toilet paper. I'm still angry after that video clip of the Russian governor of Zaporozhia casually talking about official policies to violate the Geneva conventions. Fuck every Russian that has anything to do with the government, and their whole families. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99: My wife is much the same way. She hates anything Russian. It goes as far as hating the professional hockey players on our NHL team from Russia, local ballet studio with Russian name/owners, dwts pros from Russia.....right or wrong it's just how it is. There will never be reconciliation for any Ukrainian who remembers this war. It's ironic. Russia claims to protect ethnic Russians, but nothing has or ever will cause as much loss of Russian-speaking people in Ukraine as this invasion. Somewhere around a year ago I recall an article in Washington Post talking about how even middle-age & up Ukrainians are taking classes to learn to speak Ukrainian language ('dialect' if you insist on Russian terms) because they only spoke Russian. Russian is the 'language of the invader' and almost everyone is hot to drop that language. Russian-language books were being turned in for pulping to become toilet paper. I'm still angry after that video clip of the Russian governor of Zaporozhia casually talking about official policies to violate the Geneva conventions. Fuck every Russian that has anything to do with the government, and their whole families. In the grand scheme of things, the Putin regime has likely done more for the creation of a Ukrainian nation entirely separate from Russia than Bandera. |
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MD, USA
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Posted: 3/8/2024 8:13:05 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rbblrwsr: MKSheppard posted some interesting numbers regarding tube production, or lack thereof, by Poo-tin's merry band of thieving assholes. Given that the Russian way of war is to level everything above grade until it's untenable, then do it again a few hundred (or few thousand) meters down the road, they need those tubes to have any chance to advance, and the increasing UA AD presence when glide bombs become a problem seems to make the Russian version of CAS a very temporary solution. Is the tube situation something that's lurking in the background given Russia's expenditure rate on shells? Or is it a nothing burger? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rbblrwsr: MKSheppard posted some interesting numbers regarding tube production, or lack thereof, by Poo-tin's merry band of thieving assholes. Given that the Russian way of war is to level everything above grade until it's untenable, then do it again a few hundred (or few thousand) meters down the road, they need those tubes to have any chance to advance, and the increasing UA AD presence when glide bombs become a problem seems to make the Russian version of CAS a very temporary solution. Is the tube situation something that's lurking in the background given Russia's expenditure rate on shells? Or is it a nothing burger? Lurking in the background. It's been a lingering issue since 2022 (!). Back when we were only months into this war, there was this article: LINK Novaya-Europe’s source in Rostec says that the Armata [tank] and the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV [self propelled gun] share the same problem regarding the gun system: Russia does not produce the required type of gun steel. Only two factories in Russia produce blanks for parts of the receiver group: the Motovilikha Plants in Perm and Barrikady, a machine manufacturing plant in Volgograd. “Russia’s metal industry is dead,” our source says. “When a competition for barrel blanks was announced, all the samples put up for it turned out to be defective. The special thing about the new barrels is that they must withstand greater pressure, that is, be more durable. This requires special alloys and melting modes, as well as small-sized furnaces. The thing is: Russia’s metallurgy is focused on large volumes and mass grades of steel. Back in the day, some of the managers within the industry considered that the open-hearth smelting process had become inefficient, and all open-hearth furnaces were extinguished in the country. However, only those furnaces could produce high-quality steel, including the one used to produce artillery. The way I interpret this is that Russia can manufacture a decent amount of low grade barrels for large caliber guns with full charge (EFC) round count limits of 150 for tanks and 800 or so for artillery; allowing them to "meet quota" to get new built or refurbished AFV out the door each month. They remain limited due to sanctions cutting off high quality steels and materials needed to make the good barrels; in addition to the lack of facilities to make them in quantity. They get boutique scale production of "spec" barrels -- i.e. 350-400 EFC for tanks and 1600 to 2000 EFC for artillery -- each month so that the apparatchik can say "look, our stuff is the best!" PS: Ukraine has started hitting Russian metallurgical plants recently -- three so far in the last two weeks (Cherepovka, Lipetsk and Kursk). PPS: I'm sorry I can't be too exact or specific with this; as there's not a lot of detailed information available on the internet. If you have enough money ($15,000 or so), you can actually order detailed writeups of the exact make up of the metals industry in Russia from industrial forecasting services. I'm not willing to go that far to win internet arguments. |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 8:53:09 PM EDT
[Last Edit: theskuh]
[#31]
ukr drones vs mech assault
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/5J4y10AkPe Cluster munitions from Russian pov https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/xiXL6HdP3j Night ambush on Russian strolling soldier https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/a8CXfI9dZv |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 8:53:15 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#32]
Now, video included.
 
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:04:47 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: Lurking in the background. It's been a lingering issue since 2022 (!). Back when we were only months into this war, there was this article: LINK The way I interpret this is that Russia can manufacture a decent amount of low grade barrels for large caliber guns with full charge (EFC) round count limits of 150 for tanks and 800 or so for artillery; allowing them to "meet quota" to get new built or refurbished AFV out the door each month. They remain limited due to sanctions cutting off high quality steels and materials needed to make the good barrels; in addition to the lack of facilities to make them in quantity. They get boutique scale production of "spec" barrels -- i.e. 350-400 EFC for tanks and 1600 to 2000 EFC for artillery -- each month so that the apparatchik can say "look, our stuff is the best!" PS: Ukraine has started hitting Russian metallurgical plants recently -- three so far in the last two weeks (Cherepovka, Lipetsk and Kursk). PPS: I'm sorry I can't be too exact or specific with this; as there's not a lot of detailed information available on the internet. If you have enough money ($15,000 or so), you can actually order detailed writeups of the exact make up of the metals industry in Russia from industrial forecasting services. I'm not willing to go that far to win internet arguments. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: Originally Posted By rbblrwsr: MKSheppard posted some interesting numbers regarding tube production, or lack thereof, by Poo-tin's merry band of thieving assholes. Given that the Russian way of war is to level everything above grade until it's untenable, then do it again a few hundred (or few thousand) meters down the road, they need those tubes to have any chance to advance, and the increasing UA AD presence when glide bombs become a problem seems to make the Russian version of CAS a very temporary solution. Is the tube situation something that's lurking in the background given Russia's expenditure rate on shells? Or is it a nothing burger? Lurking in the background. It's been a lingering issue since 2022 (!). Back when we were only months into this war, there was this article: LINK Novaya-Europe’s source in Rostec says that the Armata [tank] and the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV [self propelled gun] share the same problem regarding the gun system: Russia does not produce the required type of gun steel. Only two factories in Russia produce blanks for parts of the receiver group: the Motovilikha Plants in Perm and Barrikady, a machine manufacturing plant in Volgograd. “Russia’s metal industry is dead,” our source says. “When a competition for barrel blanks was announced, all the samples put up for it turned out to be defective. The special thing about the new barrels is that they must withstand greater pressure, that is, be more durable. This requires special alloys and melting modes, as well as small-sized furnaces. The thing is: Russia’s metallurgy is focused on large volumes and mass grades of steel. Back in the day, some of the managers within the industry considered that the open-hearth smelting process had become inefficient, and all open-hearth furnaces were extinguished in the country. However, only those furnaces could produce high-quality steel, including the one used to produce artillery. The way I interpret this is that Russia can manufacture a decent amount of low grade barrels for large caliber guns with full charge (EFC) round count limits of 150 for tanks and 800 or so for artillery; allowing them to "meet quota" to get new built or refurbished AFV out the door each month. They remain limited due to sanctions cutting off high quality steels and materials needed to make the good barrels; in addition to the lack of facilities to make them in quantity. They get boutique scale production of "spec" barrels -- i.e. 350-400 EFC for tanks and 1600 to 2000 EFC for artillery -- each month so that the apparatchik can say "look, our stuff is the best!" PS: Ukraine has started hitting Russian metallurgical plants recently -- three so far in the last two weeks (Cherepovka, Lipetsk and Kursk). PPS: I'm sorry I can't be too exact or specific with this; as there's not a lot of detailed information available on the internet. If you have enough money ($15,000 or so), you can actually order detailed writeups of the exact make up of the metals industry in Russia from industrial forecasting services. I'm not willing to go that far to win internet arguments. Great post. Russia Needs Fresh Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns By The Thousand. Jan 12, 2024 04:59pm EST Thanks to a huge consignment of shells from North Korea, Russian forces in Ukraine are flush with artillery ammunition. What gunners don’t have in abundance are howitzer barrels. And there’s evidence the Russians are maintaining their best guns ... by dismantling their worst guns. A howitzer barrel usually is good for a few thousand shots before its steel becomes brittle or bends. If an artillery battery doesn’t replace worn-out barrels in time, it risks catastrophic accidents as shells explode inside their guns. Something we’ve seen many, many times on both sides of Russia’s 23-month wider war on Ukraine. The math is unforgiving for Russia’s gunners. There might be 2,000 Russian howitzers along the 600-mile front line in Ukraine. Altogether, Russian batteries are firing at least 10,000 rounds a day. That’s just five rounds per gun per day, over average. At that average firing rate, a howitzer barrel should last a little over a year. But in practice, the guns in the most critical sectors of the front fire much more than average, while the guns in the quieter sectors might fire less. Around Avdiivka, Bakhmut or Krynky, Russian artillery batteries might need to replace their barrels every couple of months. An artillery barrel requires high-quality steel and precision machining. Before the war, just two factories in Russia were equipped for producing artillery barrels: the Motovilikha Plant in Perm and Barrikady in Volgograd. It’s unclear whether the Kremlin has established any new production facilities or found a foreign source for replacement barrels. North Korea, perhaps. In any event, it’s evident the Russians are struggling to produce the thousands of replacement artillery barrels they need to keep their big guns firing at their current high rate. According to open-source analyst Richard Vereker, the Kremlin has been pulling out of long-term storage thousands of Cold War-vintage towed howitzers. But it’s not necessarily sending those old—but lightly-used—guns to the front in order to make good the roughly 1,100 artillery pieces Russian forces have lost since February 2022. No, it seems technicians instead are yanking the barrels off the old towed guns and using them as a replacements for worn-out barrels on the most important self-propelled howitzers. Vereker came to that conclusion after noting the precipitous decline in losses among Russia’s towed artillery batteries. Towed artillery “is coming out of storage much quicker than [self-propelled guns], but I think it’s to strip off the barrel and put it onto an SPG.” If Vereker is right and the Russians are cannibalizing their towed artillery in order to keep their self-propelled artillery in action, the question—for advocates of a free Ukraine—is how many old guns the Russians have left, and thus how many spare barrels they can generate without building them from scratch. In other words, are barrels a bottleneck in Russia’s artillery supply? And could a shortage of barrels throttle Russian firepower? Not this year, if at all. According to Vereker, the Kremlin in 2021 was sitting on 12,300 old towed artillery pieces. After nearly two years of fighting, it was down to 7,500 stored towed pieces—implying it has yanked the barrels off as many as 4,800 old guns. The recovered barrels, plus any new barrels Russian industry has produced, were enough to keep 2,000 howitzers shooting for two years. Assuming most of the 7,500 old towed howitzers remaining in storage aren’t already totally worn out, these guns—stripped for parts—could keep the front-line batteries in action for another two years. If so, that points to 2026 as the crisis year in Russian weapons-supply. As it happens, that’s also the year the Russians could run out of infantry fighting vehicles and tanks. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/12/russia-needs-fresh-artillery-barrels-bad-its-yanking-them-off-old-guns-by-the-thousand/?sh=251ad8634308 |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:09:23 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: Lurking in the background. It's been a lingering issue since 2022 (!). Back when we were only months into this war, there was this article: LINK The way I interpret this is that Russia can manufacture a decent amount of low grade barrels for large caliber guns with full charge (EFC) round count limits of 150 for tanks and 800 or so for artillery; allowing them to "meet quota" to get new built or refurbished AFV out the door each month. They remain limited due to sanctions cutting off high quality steels and materials needed to make the good barrels; in addition to the lack of facilities to make them in quantity. They get boutique scale production of "spec" barrels -- i.e. 350-400 EFC for tanks and 1600 to 2000 EFC for artillery -- each month so that the apparatchik can say "look, our stuff is the best!" PS: Ukraine has started hitting Russian metallurgical plants recently -- three so far in the last two weeks (Cherepovka, Lipetsk and Kursk). PPS: I'm sorry I can't be too exact or specific with this; as there's not a lot of detailed information available on the internet. If you have enough money ($15,000 or so), you can actually order detailed writeups of the exact make up of the metals industry in Russia from industrial forecasting services. I'm not willing to go that far to win internet arguments. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: Originally Posted By rbblrwsr: MKSheppard posted some interesting numbers regarding tube production, or lack thereof, by Poo-tin's merry band of thieving assholes. Given that the Russian way of war is to level everything above grade until it's untenable, then do it again a few hundred (or few thousand) meters down the road, they need those tubes to have any chance to advance, and the increasing UA AD presence when glide bombs become a problem seems to make the Russian version of CAS a very temporary solution. Is the tube situation something that's lurking in the background given Russia's expenditure rate on shells? Or is it a nothing burger? Lurking in the background. It's been a lingering issue since 2022 (!). Back when we were only months into this war, there was this article: LINK Novaya-Europe’s source in Rostec says that the Armata [tank] and the 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV [self propelled gun] share the same problem regarding the gun system: Russia does not produce the required type of gun steel. Only two factories in Russia produce blanks for parts of the receiver group: the Motovilikha Plants in Perm and Barrikady, a machine manufacturing plant in Volgograd. “Russia’s metal industry is dead,” our source says. “When a competition for barrel blanks was announced, all the samples put up for it turned out to be defective. The special thing about the new barrels is that they must withstand greater pressure, that is, be more durable. This requires special alloys and melting modes, as well as small-sized furnaces. The thing is: Russia’s metallurgy is focused on large volumes and mass grades of steel. Back in the day, some of the managers within the industry considered that the open-hearth smelting process had become inefficient, and all open-hearth furnaces were extinguished in the country. However, only those furnaces could produce high-quality steel, including the one used to produce artillery. The way I interpret this is that Russia can manufacture a decent amount of low grade barrels for large caliber guns with full charge (EFC) round count limits of 150 for tanks and 800 or so for artillery; allowing them to "meet quota" to get new built or refurbished AFV out the door each month. They remain limited due to sanctions cutting off high quality steels and materials needed to make the good barrels; in addition to the lack of facilities to make them in quantity. They get boutique scale production of "spec" barrels -- i.e. 350-400 EFC for tanks and 1600 to 2000 EFC for artillery -- each month so that the apparatchik can say "look, our stuff is the best!" PS: Ukraine has started hitting Russian metallurgical plants recently -- three so far in the last two weeks (Cherepovka, Lipetsk and Kursk). PPS: I'm sorry I can't be too exact or specific with this; as there's not a lot of detailed information available on the internet. If you have enough money ($15,000 or so), you can actually order detailed writeups of the exact make up of the metals industry in Russia from industrial forecasting services. I'm not willing to go that far to win internet arguments. Great post. |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:09:57 PM EDT
[#35]
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:10:38 PM EDT
[#36]
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:11:50 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#37]
are also repaired and serviced." |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:12:58 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIMGNDtWEAIAkaP?format=jpg&name=small
Well, to be honest it took you over 12 months to hit a Himars, so.
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:13:46 PM EDT
[#39]
1/n
Situation update from March 8, 2024, 744th day of #GuerreEnUkraine What a wonderful International Women's Day! Let's not forget that women 🇷🇺 overthrew the imperial tyrant, in St. Petersburg, 107 years ago! Let's not forget Lieutenant Witch 💙💛 
4/n ••Like most of the soldiers 🇺🇦 on the front line, Lieutenant Witch 👇 is forced to hide to escape the deluge of fire that an unbalanced FIRE RATIO of 14:1 imposes on them FIRE VOLumes 🇺🇦 reach lows (5) for ground artillery
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:16:50 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIMGNDtWEAIAkaP?format=jpg&name=small
Uhhhh….yes? |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:19:24 PM EDT
[#41]
   
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:20:59 PM EDT
[#42]
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:24:10 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Well, to be honest it took you over 12 months to hit a Himars, so. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIMGNDtWEAIAkaP?format=jpg&name=small
Well, to be honest it took you over 12 months to hit a Himars, so. So if there were 39 Zelenskies, they would STILL take a year to hit one |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:28:42 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: So if there were 39 Zelenskies, they would STILL take a year to hit one Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIMGNDtWEAIAkaP?format=jpg&name=small
Well, to be honest it took you over 12 months to hit a Himars, so. So if there were 39 Zelenskies, they would STILL take a year to hit one lol, yes.
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:32:48 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Taganrog - live chat And Beriev is burning now https://t.me/taganrog_open/176110/195011 Shchadenko 19 was showered with shrapnel (intersection of Shchadenko street and Tsentralny village)  Mom is in Bessegenoak, she also says smoke is pouring out of Beriavo https://t.me/taganrog_open/195119 Footage of a terrorist attack by Ukrainian UAVs on Taganrog Late at night, Ukrainian Armed Forces militants decided to attack a peaceful city - presumably two dozen drones rushed into the city. The terrorist attack, according to local media, was the largest, and it lasted about half an hour. The hum of dozens of UAVs came from the sea, and was followed by dull explosions - Russian air defense was working. Governor of the Rostov region Vasily Golubev said that the Ukrainian attack was stopped by air defense forces. The consequences on the ground are being clarified. https://t.me/readovkanews/75412
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:36:30 PM EDT
[#46]
ISW assessment for March 8th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8-2024 |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:56:34 PM EDT
[#47]
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:58:04 PM EDT
[#48]
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Posted: 3/8/2024 9:59:51 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Well, to be honest it took you over 12 months to hit a Himars, so. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIMGNDtWEAIAkaP?format=jpg&name=small
Well, to be honest it took you over 12 months to hit a Himars, so. “We could hit those Patriot systems whenever we want….we wanted them to kill our AWACS multiple times.” |
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Posted: 3/8/2024 10:10:23 PM EDT
[#50]
Good stuff in this one.
  
 
 
 
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