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Posted: 3/11/2024 5:10:36 AM EDT
[#1]
 (CNN) — Russia appears on track to produce nearly three times more artillery munitions than the US and Europe, a key advantage ahead of what is expected to be another Russian offensive in Ukraine later this year. Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN. The US military set a goal to produce 100,000 rounds of artillery a month by the end of 2025 — less than half of the Russian monthly output — and even that number is now out of reach with $60 billion in Ukraine funding stalled in Congress, a senior Army official told reporters last week. “What we are in now is a production war,” a senior NATO official told CNN. “The outcome in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped to conduct this war.” Officials say Russia is currently firing around 10,000 shells a day, compared to just 2,000 a day from the Ukrainian side. The ratio is worse in some places along the 600-mile front, according to a European intelligence official. The shortfall comes at perhaps the most perilous moment for Ukraine’s war effort since Russia first marched on Kyiv in February 2022. US money for arming Ukraine has run out and Republican opposition in Congress has effectively halted giving any more. Meanwhile, Russia recently took the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka and is widely seen as having the initiative on the battlefield. Ukraine is struggling not just with ammunition but also growing manpower shortages on the front lines. The US and its allies have given Ukraine a number of highly sophisticated systems, including the M-1 Abrams tank and, soon, F-16 fighter jets. But military analysts say the war will likely be won or lost based on who fires the most artillery shells. “The number one issue that we’re watching right now is the munitions,” the NATO official said. “It’s those artillery shells, because that’s where Russia really [is] mounting a significant production advantage and mounting a significant advantage on the battlefield.” Russian war machine in ‘full gear’ Russia is running artillery factories “24/7” on rotating 12-hour shifts, the NATO official said. About 3.5 million Russians now work in the defense sector, up from somewhere between 2 and 2.5 million before the war. Russia is also importing ammunition: Iran sent at least 300,000 artillery shells last year — “probably more than that,” the official said — and North Korea provided at least 6,700 containers of ammunition carrying millions of shells. Russia has “put everything they have in the game,” the intelligence official said. “Their war machine works in full gear.” A rough equivalent in the US would be if President Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act, a US official said, which gives the president power to order companies to produce equipment expeditiously to support the nation’s national defense. Russia’s ramp-up is still not enough to meet its needs, US and Western officials say, and Western intelligence officials do not expect Russia to make major gains on the battlefield in the short term. There is also a limit to Russian production capacity, officials say: Russian factories will likely hit a peak sometime in the next year. But it’s still far beyond what the US and Europe are producing for Ukraine — especially without additional US funding. Competing with Putin’s managed economy European nations are trying to make up the shortfall. A German defense company announced last month that it plans to open an ammunition factory in Ukraine that it said will produce hundreds of thousands of 155mm caliber bullets each year. In Germany, the same company broke ground on a new factory expected to eventually produce around 200,000 artillery shells per year. US and Western officials insist that although Russia has been able to jump-start its factory lines, in part because it has the advantage of being a managed economy under the control of an autocrat, capitalist western nations will eventually catch up and produce better equipment. “If you can actually control the economy, then you can probably move a little bit faster than other countries out there,” Lt. Gen. Steven Basham, the deputy commander of US European Command, told CNN in an interview last week. But, he said, “the West will have more sustaining power.” “The West is just starting their ramp-up of building the infrastructure to add in the munitions capability that is needed.” When the money was still flowing, the US Army expanded production of artillery shells in Pennsylvania, Iowa and Texas. “Russia’s output is 24/7. I mean, huge, immense,” one European lawmaker said. “We should not underestimate their will to outlast us with patience, and with resilience.” Intelligence officials believe that neither side is poised to make any large gains imminently, but the overall math favors Moscow in the long run — particularly if additional US aid does not materialize. “It’s not going well, but it all depends,” said one source familiar with Western intelligence. “If aid restarts and comes quick, all is not lost.” Targeting Ukraine’s weapons production Russia has also recently targeted Ukraine’s domestic defense production with its long-range weapons. “If we were talking about this last fall, we would have talked about how they were targeting critical infrastructure,” the NATO official said. “Now what we see is some critical infrastructure targeting, but also a lot of targeting the Ukrainian defense industrial base.” According to the senior NATO official, Russia is producing between 115 to 130 long-range missiles, and 300 to 350 one-way attack drones based on an Iranian model provided by Tehran, each month. Although before the war, Russia had a stockpile of thousands of long-range missiles in its arsenal, today it is hovering around 700, the official said. The Russians have lately conserved those weapons to use in large volleys to try to overwhelm Ukrainian missile defenses. And they have compensated by increasing their use of drones, sending out on average four times as many drones per month as they did last winter. Perhaps Russia’s biggest challenge has been in tank and other armored vehicle production. It is churning out about 125 tanks a month, but the vast majority are older models that have been refurbished. About 86% of the main battle tanks Russia produced in 2023 were refurbished, the NATO official said. And although Russia has about 5,000 tanks in storage, “probably a large percentage of those can’t be refurbished and are only good for cannibalizing parts,” the official said. Moscow has lost at least 2,700 tanks, more than twice the total number that they deployed initially to Ukraine in February of 2022, when the invasion began. Russia’s ‘transformed’ economy Officials are also closely watching Russia’s economy for signs of how the interplay between a super-charged defense sector, Western sanctions, and Putin’s efforts to gird his economy for war impact Russia’s ability to sustain the conflict. The war has absolutely “transformed” Russia’s economy, the NATO official said, from the post-Soviet period when oil was the leading sector. Now, defense is the largest sector of the Russian economy, and oil is paying for it. That creates some long-term imbalances that will likely be problematic for Russia, but for now, it’s working, the NATO official and Basham, the US European Command official, both said. “In the short term — say, the next 18 months or so — it may be unsophisticated, but it’s a durable economy,” the NATO official said. The Pentagon is weighing whether to tap into the last remaining source of funding it has — but it has previously been reluctant to spend any of that remaining money without assurances it would be reimbursed by Congress, because taking from DoD stockpiles with no plan to replenish that equipment could impact US military readiness, CNN has previously reported. “If no more US aid coming, do the Ukrainians change how they feel about negotiating?” the source familiar with Western intelligence said. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html |
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USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 5:34:06 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: ❗️The Russian Federation is moving ship repair bases from Crimea! ATESH agents record regular transportation of Russian ship engines from Crimea towards Taman. It is likely that the occupiers are strengthening their ability to repair military vessels in Novorossiysk. In the city where the Black Sea Fleet base is now located. The reason for this is the successful strikes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on military targets in Crimea. ATESH plays an important role in this process. We are confident that the Black Sea Fleet will turn into a river swamp flotilla. Or it will be completely destroyed. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GITP9rCWgAAO0BE?format=jpg&name=large
Nothing special, I know a guy who dealt with surplus Soviet engines of all types. These missile boat engines are overcomplicated and notoriously unreliable. The engine on the truck is a Zvesda 504M engine, 56 cylinders in 7 banks and something like 200 liters of displacement. 
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Posted: 3/11/2024 5:54:12 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#3]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 5:55:11 AM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 6:01:12 AM EDT
[#5]
⚡️12 🇺🇦Ukrainian pilots will be ready for F-16 combat flights in the summer of 2024, - The New York Times.
But by the time the pilots return to Ukraine, only 6 F-16s may be delivered out of about 45 fighters promised by European allies. Delivery and preparation turned out to be a "difficult task," the newspaper noted. The training of pilots on modern aircraft is happening "with lightning speed", but in general the training process is progressing more slowly than Ukraine and its allies had hoped. However, the Minister of Defense of Denmark noted that Ukrainian pilots are already flying over Denmark's airspace.
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Posted: 3/11/2024 6:05:29 AM EDT
[#6]
Russian state media
🗣 We have collected the main points from Dmitry Peskov’s statements: ▪️Russian intelligence services have long had information about the presence in Ukraine of people associated with NATO; ▪️There were no open decrees on changing the Commander-in-Chief of the Navy; ▪️The Pope spoke in favor of negotiations, speaking about the “white flag” of Ukraine; ▪️Kiev, with the support of the West, strictly denies the possibility of negotiations with the Russian Federation; ▪️The intention of Kyiv and the West to inflict a strategic defeat on the Russian Federation is a deep mistake, as events on the battlefield prove; ▪️Peskov noted the increased activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in recent days, commenting on attempts by Ukrainian UAVs to strike Russian regions; ▪️Peskov called statements that Russia could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in 2022 unworthy of comment “reasoning”; ▪️The Kremlin considers Sandu’s accusations of Russia’s use of “energy” blackmail to be unfounded and unjustified; ▪️The Kremlin has become familiar with Orban’s comments following the meeting with Trump, but there is nothing specific to say about this yet; ▪️Putin will meet with the head of Roscosmos Borisov on March 11. https://t.me/tass_agency/235819 |
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USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 6:08:01 AM EDT
[#7]
Video. RUSH B |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 6:14:45 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIW2kE7XQAAjvKn?format=jpg&name=medium
Video. RUSH B Saw one earlier that was "you vs the guy she told you not to worry about"  
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Posted: 3/11/2024 6:17:00 AM EDT
[#9]
Russian instructor describes Putin's tactics to the west of Avdiivka, highlighting significant operational difficulties despite reported progress, particularly at the Orlivka-Tonen'ke axis.
The lack of coordination and communication among units leads to confusion and disorganisation on the ground, resulting in ineffective offensives and unnecessary risks for troops.   
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ESP
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Posted: 3/11/2024 6:58:37 AM EDT
[#10]
The drunken Russian began beating the women because he thought they were speaking Ukrainian.
Battles of Belgian volunteers against Russian soldiers in Serebrianskyi Forest (2 videos) Total destruction of the Russian Buk-M1 along with its crew Another massive Russian Assault Group flames out: |
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OK, USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 8:13:23 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By birdbarian: He also helped the war effort in the Pacific, and flew combat missions as a civilian. I suspect he had a change of heart, but I've not studied his life or beliefs. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By birdbarian: Originally Posted By nraheston: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:  Charles Lindbergh was of a similar mind. I admire that he had 13 children, but he was a nazi. He also helped the war effort in the Pacific, and flew combat missions as a civilian. I suspect he had a change of heart, but I've not studied his life or beliefs. Glad someone mentioned this. He also came up with an engine RPM adjustment technique to make P-38s more fuel-efficient so they could sortie farther. Probably a more valuable contribution than the Jap plane he shot down. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:05:14 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIW2kE7XQAAjvKn?format=jpg&name=medium
Video. RUSH B Man, the drone went right between his legs too. 
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:09:41 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Russian instructor describes Putin's tactics to the west of Avdiivka, highlighting significant operational difficulties despite reported progress, particularly at the Orlivka-Tonen'ke axis. The lack of coordination and communication among units leads to confusion and disorganisation on the ground, resulting in ineffective offensives and unnecessary risks for troops. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIYSoAEWgAApX3y?format=png&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIYSoVkXEAAILaB?format=png&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIYSosQWsAAW45U?format=png&name=medium
Well this starts to make sense now. I saw numerous Ukrainian reports the past few days of Russians advancing and then "Staying in basements." Then Ukrainian forces would basically mop up and shell the areas the Russians were holed up in. The process would repeat itself with Russian claims of advancements, and Ukrainian claims of Russians in basements again. Thank God Russian communications are so bad. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:11:44 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#14]
This sort of target would be better served with a cruise missile that can penetrate the bunkers. Or an ATACMS ballistic missile.
Note: This occurred during the same massiive strike in which the Beriev aircraft factory in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia, was also struck by multiple drones despite Russian claims to the contrary. (https://t.me/operativnoZSU/139403) «2 UAVs fell on the territory of an arsenal with ammunition in the village of Kotluban, Volgograd region, during a mass attack on the night of March 8, АЗТКА sources Earlier, the Ministry of Defense reported that on the night of March 8, 15 drones were shot down over the Volgograd region. As the FAIRY TALE found out, 2 of them fell on the territory of military unit 57229/51 in the village of Kotluban ((former 921). One drone exploded after the crash. Previously, there were no casualties. The destruction of nitrogen is also unknown. V/h 57229/51, according to open data, is a large arsenal of complex ammunition storage. According to the Wikipedia service, the arsenal of the Main Rocket Artillery is located here.» 
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:17:17 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#15]
A rebuttal on the CNN report about Russia producing more ammo than the West. I believe that report was inaccurate as well.
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:27:00 AM EDT
[#16]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:28:16 AM EDT
[#17]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:29:07 AM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:30:26 AM EDT
[#19]
Looks like two off route mines that missed.
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:31:30 AM EDT
[#20]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:34:00 AM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:35:41 AM EDT
[#22]
Unlike a classic anti-aircraft missile, the VAMPIRE optical tracking station guides an APKWS guided projectile to the drone, which directly hits the target. The cost of one APKWS missile is about $40,000 per unit, which makes its use quite effective in terms of the "price-result" ratio. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:37:16 AM EDT
[#23]
NATO troops could carry out support activities directly on Ukrainian territory as this would not violate any international rules, Czech President Petr Pavel said in an interview for Czech Television. According to Pavel, there must be a clear distinction between deploying combat troops and possibly involving troops in some “support” activities with which NATO already has experience. “From the point of view of international law and the UN Charter, there would be nothing to prevent NATO member states’ troops – as well as civilians, for example – from assisting in the work in Ukraine,” Pavel stressed. According to Pavel, Western allies should have the courage to defend their activities legally, “because helping to train and maintain equipment in a sovereign country is not combat,” he explained. “Even if there is a training mission on its (Ukrainian) territory, it is not a violation of any international rule. And it is up to us what form of assistance we choose to provide to Ukraine, as long as we stay within that limit of non-combat engagement,” the Czech president said. 
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:38:15 AM EDT
[#24]
Who all is currently buying exported Russian petroleum products?
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:46:10 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#25]
Regarding the Patriot destruction video. If this was actually a functioning Patriot battery, I would have expected Russian air attacks to be more effective from that moment out. We aren't seeing that though.
I am thinking at worst, this might have been a Patriot reloading vehicle with some PAC-2's that got hit, or a rocket artillery group like the Czech VAMPIR as noted below. Russia also really isn't going on an information campaign like they are with the M1's that are confirmed, this is another tell that something isn't quite as it first seems. This is a reload vehicle, they don't have the generator behid the cab and we don't see the evidence of the generators on the aftermath video.   |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:50:18 AM EDT
[#26]
The Night Summary (11.03.2024 04:30 RO/UA Time): It's very easy to lose sight of our perspective on the front and assume, as Kremlin propaganda tries to convince us, that Russia cannot be defeated. But the reality is different: You can see on @Deepstate_UA maps that in a month's time the Russian Army has not advanced significantly with one notable exception - Avdiivka: - Kupyansk axis: in the last month the Russians have not advanced at all, despite all sources (Ukrainian and Russian) claiming the massing of more than 40,000 Russians and more than 1,000 armored vehicles on this axis. - Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar axis: in the last month they have advanced 2.5 km from Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar. During this period of time, they captured Ivanivske. - The ultimate objective of this Russian offensive that began in October 2023 is to reach Kramatorsk. If it were to continue at the pace of the last few months (an accelerated pace compared to what had happened in previous months), the Russian Army would need 18 months, and once they reached the gates of Kramatorsk they would encounter a complex defense system, which alone would require all available forces to achieve the objective. So I don't think Russia will get to conquer Kramatorsk or Sloviansk in the short to medium future, and thus I don't think they will ever conquer Donbas. - Robotyne axis: in the last month the Russians have advanced 1.5 km in depth on a front several hundred meters wide. Again, insignificant on a grand scale. - Krynky Axis: no change in the last month. To be closer to the truth, there has been almost no change here since November 2023, with the Ukrainians still managing to hold the bridgehead, generating huge losses to the Russians, considering that there have never been more than 300 Ukrainians present in Krynky, backed indeed by artillery, air support and drones from the west bank of the Dnieper. At the same time, with about 50 times more Russian soldiers in front of them. Losses tallied by @naalsio26 visually confirmed as 230 Russian armored vs 51 Ukrainian. A ratio of 4.5 to 1. - Avdiivka Axis: This is where the Russians have had their biggest lead in the last month, and where they've had perhaps their biggest visually confirmed losses. After the fall of Avdiivka on 17 February, they have advanced between 2.5km and 4km. If this rhythm is maintained (not maintained) they would reach Porkovsk in 12 months. Why did I say it is not maintained? Because the front has stabilized. Losses confirmed visually also by @naalsio26 amount to: 792 Russian armored vs 105 Ukrainian. An extreme 8:1 ratio. I want to take into account that all these last 5 months since Russia started multi-axis offensives have been conducted without US help. Putin said in an interview that without the US, Ukraine would be defeated in 2-3 weeks. It's been 5 months since the US stopped giving arms aid and Ukraine is resisting. ----- After all this information, leaving aside the losses on both sides that are making waves on the internet (13 Russian warplanes vs 1 possible HIMARS, 1 possible Abrams, and 2 possible Patriot batteries in the Ukrainian Armed Forces), leaving aside the bellicose statements of Putin, his puppies or the shocking and incomprehensible statements of the Pope we can see, if we look at the big picture, the following things: - Ukraine is resisting against more than 400,000 Russian troops, thousands of armored vehicles, artillery ammunition used at a ratio of 6:1 to 9:1 in favor of the Russians; - Ukraine not only resists but manages to significantly affect Russia's oil exports, thus affecting the supply of troops with fuel, through deep attacks on Russian territory; - Ukraine has managed to generate its own Grain Corridor and now manages to maintain it. All the while, it has sunk a third of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, without having a war fleet of its own; - Ukraine still manages to galvanize the West into supporting its effort to fight the invading terrorists, against all the handicaps it entered this war with and had to get used to (an army VASTLY outnumbered in terms of military personnel, EXTREMELY outgunned in terms of military equipment). Now imagine if it were backed to win. Do you think it would be impossible? 2022, with the Kyiv-Sumy, Harkiv, and Mykolayiv-Herson counteroffensives, has shown us that no, it is not impossible. In 2023 he showed us that he can destroy the Russian Black Sea Fleet and deny Russian air superiority. I believe that with our help, all of us, but especially our governments, Ukraine can win. By their courage, by their determination, by their will, by their love of freedom. With our weapons. Slava Ukraini!    
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:53:23 AM EDT
[#27]
ago with other things,” said Annalena Bärbock. Earlier, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron proposed to transfer Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, and in return receive Taurus from Germany. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:56:11 AM EDT
[#28]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 9:57:51 AM EDT
[#29]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 10:22:44 AM EDT
[#30]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 10:24:07 AM EDT
[#31]
On the way:
The countries from which the munitions come are not specified (it is assumed that these are countries that have so far maintained neutrality: South Korea, South Africa and Turkey). Thus, the Czech leader did what the EU could not do. The cost of such a contract is about $2 billion. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 10:53:56 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Looks like two off route mines that missed.
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USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 10:59:56 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Nothing special, I know a guy who dealt with surplus Soviet engines of all types. These missile boat engines are overcomplicated and notoriously unreliable. The engine on the truck is a Zvesda 504M engine, 56 cylinders in 7 banks and something like 200 liters of displacement. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By Prime: ❗️The Russian Federation is moving ship repair bases from Crimea! ATESH agents record regular transportation of Russian ship engines from Crimea towards Taman. It is likely that the occupiers are strengthening their ability to repair military vessels in Novorossiysk. In the city where the Black Sea Fleet base is now located. The reason for this is the successful strikes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on military targets in Crimea. ATESH plays an important role in this process. We are confident that the Black Sea Fleet will turn into a river swamp flotilla. Or it will be completely destroyed. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GITP9rCWgAAO0BE?format=jpg&name=large
Nothing special, I know a guy who dealt with surplus Soviet engines of all types. These missile boat engines are overcomplicated and notoriously unreliable. The engine on the truck is a Zvesda 504M engine, 56 cylinders in 7 banks and something like 200 liters of displacement. Selfquote to add a link: https://oldmachinepress.com/2016/09/05/yakovlev-m-501-and-zvezda-m503-and-m504-diesel-engines/ |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:36:43 AM EDT
[#34]
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USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:36:44 AM EDT
[#35]
Ukrainian update of the BMP-1 |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:40:47 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Glad someone mentioned this. He also came up with an engine RPM adjustment technique to make P-38s more fuel-efficient so they could sortie farther. Probably a more valuable contribution than the Jap plane he shot down. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Originally Posted By birdbarian: Originally Posted By nraheston: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Charles Lindbergh was of a similar mind. I admire that he had 13 children, but he was a nazi. He also helped the war effort in the Pacific, and flew combat missions as a civilian. I suspect he had a change of heart, but I've not studied his life or beliefs. Glad someone mentioned this. He also came up with an engine RPM adjustment technique to make P-38s more fuel-efficient so they could sortie farther. Probably a more valuable contribution than the Jap plane he shot down. He didn't actually come up with the technique. It was already in the technical manual. It was a case of the maintenance folks not believing/trusting the manual, kinda like the early days of radar and the Navy. He was sent out to prove the manual. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:44:39 AM EDT
[#37]
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WI, USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:49:04 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: ⚡️12 🇺🇦Ukrainian pilots will be ready for F-16 combat flights in the summer of 2024, - The New York Times. But by the time the pilots return to Ukraine, only 6 F-16s may be delivered out of about 45 fighters promised by European allies. Delivery and preparation turned out to be a "difficult task," the newspaper noted. The training of pilots on modern aircraft is happening "with lightning speed", but in general the training process is progressing more slowly than Ukraine and its allies had hoped. However, the Minister of Defense of Denmark noted that Ukrainian pilots are already flying over Denmark's airspace.
Unbelievable. Training pilots and finding surplus planes to send to Ukraine could and should have started in late 2021. Not only is this support too little, too late, it promises to make no improvement in the balance of forces. Russia's superiority in fires and new standoff capability in FAB/KABs give every confidence that Russia can win the war this year. Two and a half years after they intended to win, but an ugly win is still a win. I hope Europe is ready for 10 million new refugees streaming from the east fleeing genocide. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:56:25 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Unbelievable. Training pilots and finding surplus planes to send to Ukraine could and should have started in late 2021. Not only is this support too little, too late, it promises to make no improvement in the balance of forces. Russia's superiority in fires and new standoff capability in FAB/KABs give every confidence that Russia can win the war this year. Two and a half years after they intended to win, but an ugly win is still a win. I hope Europe is ready for 10 million new refugees streaming from the east fleeing genocide. It is never too late until the surrender papers are signed. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:58:41 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIYdRx0XkAAveRb?format=jpg&name=small International law and the UN charter no longer apply. Russia has established this as a fact. This conflict is a contest of force. Force wins. International law means absolutely nothing. Putin isn't playing by modern rules, he's playing by the law of the jungle. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 11:59:14 AM EDT
[#41]
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Posted: 3/11/2024 12:02:29 PM EDT
[#42]
Middle East tangent. Western ships are doing better than the Russian Navy against drone and USV attacks.
  
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Posted: 3/11/2024 12:08:10 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIYB5LwWkAAEwXb?format=jpg&name=medium (CNN) — Russia appears on track to produce nearly three times more artillery munitions than the US and Europe, a key advantage ahead of what is expected to be another Russian offensive in Ukraine later this year. Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN. The US military set a goal to produce 100,000 rounds of artillery a month by the end of 2025 — less than half of the Russian monthly output — and even that number is now out of reach with $60 billion in Ukraine funding stalled in Congress, a senior Army official told reporters last week. “What we are in now is a production war,” a senior NATO official told CNN. “The outcome in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped to conduct this war.” Officials say Russia is currently firing around 10,000 shells a day, compared to just 2,000 a day from the Ukrainian side. The ratio is worse in some places along the 600-mile front, according to a European intelligence official. The shortfall comes at perhaps the most perilous moment for Ukraine’s war effort since Russia first marched on Kyiv in February 2022. US money for arming Ukraine has run out and Republican opposition in Congress has effectively halted giving any more. Meanwhile, Russia recently took the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka and is widely seen as having the initiative on the battlefield. Ukraine is struggling not just with ammunition but also growing manpower shortages on the front lines. The US and its allies have given Ukraine a number of highly sophisticated systems, including the M-1 Abrams tank and, soon, F-16 fighter jets. But military analysts say the war will likely be won or lost based on who fires the most artillery shells. “The number one issue that we’re watching right now is the munitions,” the NATO official said. “It’s those artillery shells, because that’s where Russia really [is] mounting a significant production advantage and mounting a significant advantage on the battlefield.” Russian war machine in ‘full gear’ Russia is running artillery factories “24/7” on rotating 12-hour shifts, the NATO official said. About 3.5 million Russians now work in the defense sector, up from somewhere between 2 and 2.5 million before the war. Russia is also importing ammunition: Iran sent at least 300,000 artillery shells last year — “probably more than that,” the official said — and North Korea provided at least 6,700 containers of ammunition carrying millions of shells. Russia has “put everything they have in the game,” the intelligence official said. “Their war machine works in full gear.” A rough equivalent in the US would be if President Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act, a US official said, which gives the president power to order companies to produce equipment expeditiously to support the nation’s national defense. Russia’s ramp-up is still not enough to meet its needs, US and Western officials say, and Western intelligence officials do not expect Russia to make major gains on the battlefield in the short term. There is also a limit to Russian production capacity, officials say: Russian factories will likely hit a peak sometime in the next year. But it’s still far beyond what the US and Europe are producing for Ukraine — especially without additional US funding. Competing with Putin’s managed economy European nations are trying to make up the shortfall. A German defense company announced last month that it plans to open an ammunition factory in Ukraine that it said will produce hundreds of thousands of 155mm caliber bullets each year. In Germany, the same company broke ground on a new factory expected to eventually produce around 200,000 artillery shells per year. US and Western officials insist that although Russia has been able to jump-start its factory lines, in part because it has the advantage of being a managed economy under the control of an autocrat, capitalist western nations will eventually catch up and produce better equipment. “If you can actually control the economy, then you can probably move a little bit faster than other countries out there,” Lt. Gen. Steven Basham, the deputy commander of US European Command, told CNN in an interview last week. But, he said, “the West will have more sustaining power.” “The West is just starting their ramp-up of building the infrastructure to add in the munitions capability that is needed.” When the money was still flowing, the US Army expanded production of artillery shells in Pennsylvania, Iowa and Texas. “Russia’s output is 24/7. I mean, huge, immense,” one European lawmaker said. “We should not underestimate their will to outlast us with patience, and with resilience.” Intelligence officials believe that neither side is poised to make any large gains imminently, but the overall math favors Moscow in the long run — particularly if additional US aid does not materialize. “It’s not going well, but it all depends,” said one source familiar with Western intelligence. “If aid restarts and comes quick, all is not lost.” Targeting Ukraine’s weapons production Russia has also recently targeted Ukraine’s domestic defense production with its long-range weapons. “If we were talking about this last fall, we would have talked about how they were targeting critical infrastructure,” the NATO official said. “Now what we see is some critical infrastructure targeting, but also a lot of targeting the Ukrainian defense industrial base.” According to the senior NATO official, Russia is producing between 115 to 130 long-range missiles, and 300 to 350 one-way attack drones based on an Iranian model provided by Tehran, each month. Although before the war, Russia had a stockpile of thousands of long-range missiles in its arsenal, today it is hovering around 700, the official said. The Russians have lately conserved those weapons to use in large volleys to try to overwhelm Ukrainian missile defenses. And they have compensated by increasing their use of drones, sending out on average four times as many drones per month as they did last winter. Perhaps Russia’s biggest challenge has been in tank and other armored vehicle production. It is churning out about 125 tanks a month, but the vast majority are older models that have been refurbished. About 86% of the main battle tanks Russia produced in 2023 were refurbished, the NATO official said. And although Russia has about 5,000 tanks in storage, “probably a large percentage of those can’t be refurbished and are only good for cannibalizing parts,” the official said. Moscow has lost at least 2,700 tanks, more than twice the total number that they deployed initially to Ukraine in February of 2022, when the invasion began. Russia’s ‘transformed’ economy Officials are also closely watching Russia’s economy for signs of how the interplay between a super-charged defense sector, Western sanctions, and Putin’s efforts to gird his economy for war impact Russia’s ability to sustain the conflict. The war has absolutely “transformed” Russia’s economy, the NATO official said, from the post-Soviet period when oil was the leading sector. Now, defense is the largest sector of the Russian economy, and oil is paying for it. That creates some long-term imbalances that will likely be problematic for Russia, but for now, it’s working, the NATO official and Basham, the US European Command official, both said. “In the short term — say, the next 18 months or so — it may be unsophisticated, but it’s a durable economy,” the NATO official said. The Pentagon is weighing whether to tap into the last remaining source of funding it has — but it has previously been reluctant to spend any of that remaining money without assurances it would be reimbursed by Congress, because taking from DoD stockpiles with no plan to replenish that equipment could impact US military readiness, CNN has previously reported. “If no more US aid coming, do the Ukrainians change how they feel about negotiating?” the source familiar with Western intelligence said. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html **cough***cough*** Russian proxies are ... NK and Iran |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 12:10:30 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: International law and the UN charter no longer apply. Russia has established this as a fact. This conflict is a contest of force. Force wins. International law means absolutely nothing. Putin isn't playing by modern rules, he's playing by the law of the jungle. Modern rules suck. A bunch of privileged inbred fucks who cower in fear if someone threatens them, have no issues sending other people's kids to die in a conflict those same morons put rules on that make it impossible to win. Toss their asses in the trench, and see how fast F16's and cluster munitions get sent. Those motherfuckers don't give a shit about anything but the perks and fun of being a "diplomat". None of them have the balls to pin putin against the wall and tell him the score. It could be ended relatively quickly, but what is the fun in that? There are lots of great hotels and private jets and hob nobbing with all your international friends. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 12:12:57 PM EDT
[#45]
 Orc T-80BV with lots of add on ERA. Early 2024, Ukraine. It seems they stopped painting the ERA moduls. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 12:17:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Lieh-tzu]
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: It is never too late until the surrender papers are signed. Fair. All the current news has me pessimistic. The only 'good' news is Ukraine isn't losing as badly as they could be, Russia's armaments production isn't quite as superior as it could be. That's not positive at all on either point. Quibbling over the makeup and balance of Russia's artillery production is the height of cope. Three million shells is still more than the entire west can produce, and three million is still three million. 122mm kills guys just as dead as 152mm. And guided FAB1500 is considerably more destructive than either one. Quibbling over what kind of air defense Russia destroyed is also cope. Loss of air defense is loss of air defense. Every missile that can't be fired at the planes delivering those FABs is a loss of resources that are extremely limited and hard to replace. In the much larger strategic picture, a NATO that is depleted, diminished, and under recriminations is a NATO that will be unable to effectively respond to an invasion of the Baltics. Arguing that there's no prospect of putting American lives on the line in this conflict ignores secondary and tertiary effects, future effects enabled by actions today. If Europe's defense capacity is ruined by post-cold war cuts combined with aid to Ukraine, only the US will have the ability to save NATO in the Baltics. A direct conflict between US & Russia is something worth not risking. Which means taking a bigger risk on Ukraine today, where their troops can do the fighting if we give them sufficient weapons. If Putin feels emboldened and strong enough relative to NATO to move on the Baltics, there WILL be Americans coming home in boxes. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 12:28:47 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
 He never saw it coming. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 12:37:06 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://i.imgur.com/5KM1Yhj.jpeg He never saw it coming. That a long way off to be targeted at that low an altitude |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 12:40:29 PM EDT
[#49]
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USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 12:46:26 PM EDT
[#50]
 BMD-4M turret. What a death trap.
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