Hurricane Dorian : Offical Thread, Zello Channel info in the OP - Page 10

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Hurricane Dorian : Offical Thread, Zello Channel info in the OP (Page 10 of 115)

Posted: 8/29/2019 3:44:59 AM EST

[#1]

I'm sitting here on the back porch drinking some coffee. Just heard a transformer blow.
Hope this ain't a sign of our grid integrity cause the sky is clear right meow

Posted: 8/29/2019 3:55:51 AM EST

[#2]

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I'm sitting here on the back porch drinking some coffee. Just heard a transformer blow.
Hope this ain't a sign of our grid integrity cause the sky is clear right meow

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I have seen several transformers blow getting hit my lightening. They shoot blue flames about 60 feet in the air. Always pretty yet if around them then no power.

Posted: 8/29/2019 3:56:12 AM EST

[#3]

5am out

slight southward movement of forcast path at landfall noted

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL052019
0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 66.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
cat 3 max winds

Attached File

Posted: 8/29/2019 3:56:50 AM EST

[#4]

Tag

Posted: 8/29/2019 4:00:26 AM EST

[#5]

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5am out

slight southward movement of forcast path at landfall noted

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL052019
0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 66.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.

getting error trying to upload copy of current forecast

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Yeah no clue on those numbers. I live in the Tornado Alley places. We are way due for a big one since the last F5 was in 1970. Tornadoes give you about 5 minutes warning before they hit.

What is the minimum pressure stuff?

Posted: 8/29/2019 4:05:21 AM EST

[#6]

Track is moving south with landfall near Vero Beach.

Posted: 8/29/2019 4:11:39 AM EST

[#7]

minimal central pressure gives an idea of the intensity of the hurricane. generally, the lower the pressure, the stronger (higher intensity) the winds are.

from comparing to data from before, the system has slowed down it's movement somewhat, thus giving it possibly more time to get stronger in favorable conditions.

the eye diameter gives an idea of how large an area the max winds are.

the sept 2 outlook, I put, because that is the forecast max wind intensity at that day, which should be before landfall, which puts it in the cat 3 category, which influences evacuation zones.

edit - since it slowed down, we may need another day before the final path and landfall firms up.

EdwardAvila - you need to ask and consider what the hurricane plans are if you have a cat 3 moving close or over the island you're on. if you are on the water with no elevation, I'd ask if you're likely to get wind blown surge and high waves and flooding

Posted: 8/29/2019 4:22:35 AM EST

[#8]

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minimal central pressure gives an idea of the intensity of the hurricane. generally, the lower the pressure, the stronger (higher intensity) the winds are.

from comparing to data from before, the system has slowed down it's movement somewhat, thus giving it possibly more time to get stronger in favorable conditions.

the eye diameter gives an idea of how large an area the max winds are.

the sept 2 outlook, I put, because that is the forecast max wind intensity at that day, which should be before landfall, which puts it in the cat 3 category, which influences evacuation zones.

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Yeah, the original Saffir Simpson hurricane 'Category' ranking went by pressure and not wind speed.

Then it changed to wind speed at ground level. Now I believe it's wind speed at 1000' or some height.

Posted: 8/29/2019 5:12:53 AM EST

[#9]

I really hope this doesn't hit us in the middle of the night.

Posted: 8/29/2019 5:21:21 AM EST

[#10]

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Yeah, the original Saffir Simpson hurricane 'Category' ranking went by pressure and not wind speed.

Then it changed to wind speed at ground level. Now I believe it's wind speed at 1000' or some height.

https://spaghettimodels.com/images/Saffir-Simpson%20Scale.gif

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some people have said there was a change, I tried to find something, but haven't seen anything.

the measurement I see is sustained winds at 10 meters of the water or ground is where it is measured, or calculated off of flight level winds.

Posted: 8/29/2019 5:28:42 AM EST

[#11]

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Like usual... getting ready to assist and deploy for the storm.

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Posted: 8/29/2019 5:54:31 AM EST

[#12]

Posted: 8/29/2019 5:56:48 AM EST

[#13]

Just turn to the North and head out to sea dammit!!
Or else stay South

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:03:39 AM EST

[#14]

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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDHj1u7XkAEWBm4?format=jpg&name=large

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What am I looking at @Chokey ?

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:07:30 AM EST

[#15]

Puerto Rico is in great shape with Hurricane Dorian taking a largely different route than anticipated. Thank you to FEMA, first responders, and all, for working so hard & being so well prepared. A great result! The bad news, Florida get ready! Storm is building and will be BIG!
Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 29, 2019

Hurricane Dorian looks like it will be hitting Florida late Sunday night. Be prepared and please follow State and Federal instructions, it will be a very big Hurricane, perhaps one of the biggest!
Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 29, 2019

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:08:36 AM EST

[#16]

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What am I looking at @Chokey ?

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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDHj1u7XkAEWBm4?format=jpg&name=large

What am I looking at @Chokey ?

train of ships GTFO

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:11:21 AM EST

[#17]

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train of ships GTFO

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Cant say i blame em; no way would i want to have or be on a boat on the east side of FL right now... Get while the getting is good

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:13:44 AM EST

[#18]

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train of ships GTFO

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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDHj1u7XkAEWBm4?format=jpg&name=large

What am I looking at @Chokey ?

train of ships GTFO

……...

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:14:53 AM EST

[#19]

Interested in getting updates on Hurricane #Dorian? We highly suggest following these accounts:
National Hurricane Center: @NWS_Atlantic
Local Offices:
FL Keys: @NWSKeyWest
Southern FL: @NWSMiami
Eastern FL: @NWSMelbourne
Western FL: @NWSTampaBay
Nthern FL: @NWSJacksonville
NWS Cleveland (@NWSCLE) August 29, 2019

Additional Accounts worth following for Hurricane #Dorian updates:
Rainfall forecasts: @NWSWPC
Storm surge info: @NHC_Surge
Live video and other hurricane info: @NWSNHC
NWS Cleveland (@NWSCLE) August 29, 2019

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:18:18 AM EST

[#20]

Any updates to the European model?

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:22:08 AM EST

[#21]

Space Coast checking in. Been a resident for a few years, but this one looks like it's going to pop my cherry.

Watching people freak out at the stores over bread and milk and gas is a bit amusing. All set to go for the apocalypse here, so it's a waiting game now.

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:23:28 AM EST

[#22]

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I'm sitting here on the back porch drinking some coffee. Just heard a transformer blow.
Hope this ain't a sign of our grid integrity cause the sky is clear right meow

View Quote

@RiverSwine45

this might be worth a bookmark

Florida power outage map

Attached File

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:24:29 AM EST

[#23]

What does the M mean in the middle of the center dot on the tracking map? I understand H and TS

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:25:14 AM EST

[#24]

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What does the M mean in the middle of the center dot on the tracking map? I understand H and TS

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Major Hurricane (Sustained winds > 110 MPH) i.e. CAT III or higher

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:32:49 AM EST

[#25]

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I can understand a little of the desensitization. The bombardment of hyperbole is tiresome.

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Boynton Beach.

The place was empty of customers too.

Personally, I believe folks are putting too much faith in the center of the cone track line.

I can understand a little of the desensitization. The bombardment of hyperbole is tiresome.

Yep. They behave more like drama actors than meteorologists.

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:38:46 AM EST

[#26]

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Major Hurricane (Sustained winds > 110 MPH) i.e. CAT III or higher

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What does the M mean in the middle of the center dot on the tracking map? I understand H and TS

Major Hurricane (Sustained winds > 110 MPH) i.e. CAT III or higher

And now it looks like Polk County is an H. Oh well.

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:42:28 AM EST

[#27]

Can the people posting updates, please at least post the County they are in?

There’s been a couple people posting useful stuff, useful, that is, if it had a geographical area associated with it. I get the desire for persec. I really do. But don’t post all that stuff if you're not going to post the County or Zipcode at least.

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:42:41 AM EST

[#28]

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Major Hurricane (Sustained winds > 110 MPH) i.e. CAT III or higher

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Posted: 8/29/2019 6:45:18 AM EST

[#29]

The whole slowing down thing sucks. Gonna be over Florida for days.

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:46:47 AM EST

[#30]

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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuBfzJ9XgAAgHJs.jpg:large

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Major Hurricane (Sustained winds > 110 MPH) i.e. CAT III or higher

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuBfzJ9XgAAgHJs.jpg:large

Lol

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:47:01 AM EST

[#31]

A rather amazing level of model uniformity for so far out.

At least this time it looks like folks in the evacuation area will have the option of north, south, or west.

Much preferable to having the 'Cane paralleling the coast.

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:48:06 AM EST

[#32]

Any of y’all Broward County kids been out and about? Was wondering if anyone has been to the Parkland BJs recently.

Posted: 8/29/2019 6:57:53 AM EST

[#33]

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Tag

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Hey...if the river gets to high, you can float over with some mixed drinks and tie up to my porch

@Rumrunner358

Posted: 8/29/2019 7:01:38 AM EST

[#34]

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EdwardAvila - you need to ask and consider what the hurricane plans are if you have a cat 3 moving close or over the island you're on. if you are on the water with no elevation, I'd ask if you're likely to get wind blown surge and high waves and flooding

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To give you an idea of possible after action conditions.
The boss and I flew one of the King Airs down to Marsh the day after Floyd went through because of zero coms down there. Didn't land because there was at least a foot of water on the runways at both Marsh harbor and Treasure.
Once the runways were cleared we were running the Caribou down to Marsh every couple days for a month loaded mostly with insulators, switches, wire spools, transformers and general supplies for rebuilding the power grid.

Posted: 8/29/2019 7:02:48 AM EST

[#35]

Double tap
Dang coms going to shit already

Posted: 8/29/2019 7:07:52 AM EST

[#36]

No watches or warnings are currently in effect for land areas for #Dorian, so there will not be an 8 AM EDT intermediate public advisory. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to sample #Dorian, and a Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued if significant changes are found. pic.twitter.com/NOJqjrU1zF
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 29, 2019

Posted: 8/29/2019 7:23:46 AM EST

[#37]

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I really hope this doesn't hit us in the middle of the night.

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Same, it’s the worst.

Posted: 8/29/2019 7:26:50 AM EST

[#38]

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No watches or warnings are currently in effect for land areas for #Dorian, so there will not be an 8 AM EDT intermediate public advisory. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to sample #Dorian, and a Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued if significant changes are found. pic.twitter.com/NOJqjrU1zF
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 29, 2019

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDItDCeU4AAv4X_?format=jpg&name=large

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That's small but well-organized. Hopefully, it stays small.

Posted: 8/29/2019 7:28:36 AM EST

[#39]

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@RiverSwine45

this might be worth a bookmark

Florida power outage map

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/258837/Screen_Shot_2019-08-29_at_7_22_47_AM_png-1071136.JPG

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Thanks, I bookmarked it, though it doesn't show an outage in my neighborhood. Although 1 transformer is only about 6 houses.

Posted: 8/29/2019 7:48:24 AM EST

[#40]

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Like usual... getting ready to assist and deploy for the storm.

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Be safe brother.

Posted: 8/29/2019 7:55:25 AM EST

[#41]

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Gainesville FL already reporting fuel shortages. I topped of around 7:30 and the gas station was packed. Wife hit Publix & Walmart yesterday for normal groceries. Coworkers said Publix was a madhouse today.

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Yep. Hearing chatter about hostilities at the pumps around here. I need to grab some extra e-free. Hoping one of the places in Alachua has some.

Posted: 8/29/2019 8:01:04 AM EST

[#42]

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Any of y’all Broward County kids been out and about? Was wondering if anyone has been to the Parkland BJs recently.

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I was east last night around 9pm. All gas stations has gas. Wawa had no lines for ethanol free gas. Walmart was calm and well stocked for hurricane supplies.
I’m sure it is busier this morning with the storm getting closer. If you need something get in now before the real panic sets in.

Posted: 8/29/2019 8:09:31 AM EST

[#43]

Water levels high? Check.

Live in one of two houses that lost power for three hours yesterday for no reason? Check.

Maybe I can beat my 2.5 weeks without power record and one year of sawing oak trees record.

Posted: 8/29/2019 8:10:01 AM EST

[#44]

Water levels high? Check.

Live in one of two houses that lost power for three hours yesterday for no reason? Check.

Maybe I can beat my 2.5 weeks without power record and one year of sawing oak trees record.

Posted: 8/29/2019 8:18:45 AM EST

[#45]

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Guess who drove down to Lake Wales yesterday.

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Youll be fine, plenty of airboats and brodozers in lake wales.

Posted: 8/29/2019 8:21:07 AM EST

[#46]

Pressure is back down to 986mb which is where it was at last night before it ingested some dry air and struggled a bit. I'm thinking in the next 48 hours or so we will see some real intensification.

Posted: 8/29/2019 8:28:51 AM EST

[#47]

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Yep. They behave more like drama actors than meteorologists.

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They enhance panic. From my observations when responding to these storm areas, the people are wound out. Then about 72 hrs into no power, they loose all sense of humanity.

Posted: 8/29/2019 8:34:56 AM EST

[#48]

Hurricane Dorian Update: August 29 8:45 AM ET

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEUR9BWFOFY

Posted: 8/29/2019 8:43:59 AM EST

[#49]

well on the bright side one of my trees just fell on my neighbors brand new fence, you can't see the spot from his house

and with the low pressure coming it would be an epic opening weekend for snook season, and if it comes through just right we wont get the coastal flooding, it will suck all the garbage out of our rivers instead.

Posted: 8/29/2019 8:47:05 AM EST

[#50]

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I really hope this doesn't hit us ~~in the middle of the night~~.

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I've had it with hurricanes. To make matters worse, I was injured in an accident. I've completely screwed up my ankle (I'm in PT working to avoid surgery) and my wrist. I've been putting off going to the doc for that because of my ankle. But I know something is really wrong with it.

I can't help putting up the shutters... or taking them down. Hubby can't do it all by himself. They are heavy bastards. If we can't get some of our friends sons to come over, we may have to resort to hiring people I do not want to hire.

I'm not a happy girl right now. I don't do well not be able to do anything.